NFL free picks galore. The premium plays will be coming to OffshoreInsiders.com but already a huge bowl season. First bowl drop! I am 69-40 Wise Guy and Major in college football for Friday. Saturday, what a windfall! Pre-Christmas Game and Total of the Year both go among six bowl winners. Monday, another bowl Major. Get the picks now
Texans (-2.5, 51) at Bucs
- Going against bad defenses off a win is 144-86-5 (Houston)
- Opened a pick but big line moves because of injury updates
- Tampa WR Mike Evans and Chris Godwin doubtful
- Evans 67 catches
- Godwin 86 catches
- Teams that scored 28 or more points in at least six of their last seven (Tampa) are a fade of 79-49 (Houston) and go under 73-54
- Houston not officially clinched division but would take a miracle
- Small chance J.J. Watt could come back
The pick: Houston
Rams at Niners (-6, 45)
- Teams off a loss as large favorite are 101-70 (San Francisco)
- Consecutive road games, team off loss is 315-218-11 (Rams)
- Late-season regression to the mean angle based on ats margin is 140-96-8 (Rams)
- Go against much better running team late in season is 82-50-2 (Rams)
- Big dog with defense has spent substantially more time on field is 125-80-3 (Rams)
The pick: LA Rams +6
Ravens (-10) at Browns
- Bad spread team to good one is 193-114-13
- Browns out of playoffs
- Freddie Kitchens likely one and done
- Ravens not much to play for and putting reigns on Lamar Jackson makes sense
- Already set record
- Home double-digit dogs in week 15 or later 28-15, though admittedly 4-5 since 2014 (Browns)
The pick: Cleveland +10
Saints (-2, 51) at Titans SNF
- Small home underdogs off loss as a favorite 69-48-8 for 59 percent
The pick: Titans +2
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