Joe Duffy has night Major in college football and three NBA winners for Friday. The biggest betting myths are disproportionately bowl related. That’s why you have lost on your own for years, while my clients win. Don’t be on the outside looking in! Get the picks now

FIU-Arkansas State in Camelia Bowl

• FIU travels 586 miles to Montgomery 
• Arkansas State just 348
• FIU balanced with James Morgan has led the Panthers’ offense with 2,248 passing yards and 13 touchdown passes and RB Anthony Jones 802 rushing yards and 9 TDs
• FIU lost 3-of-5 to end season, while ASU won 4-of-5 to end season
• Last 5 Camelia Bowls decided by five or less
• Butch Davis 6-2 SU bowls including 2-2 FIU
• ASU 1-4 SU in bowls
• ASU could be extra motivated for coach Blake Anderson, who left the team for three weeks after death of his wife and turned down overtures from Missouri 
• When high-powered team plays ball-control team, starts out slowing before warming up

UNDER 13.5 first quarter

Washington-Boise State Las Vegas Bowl

• Bowl teams with at least two fewer wins yet laying -3 or more are 37-27 for 57.8, 34-21 since 1992 (Washington)
• Boise State only loss by 3 to BYU
  • Washington crushed BYU on road 45-19
• Washington should be fired up for Chris Peterson’s final game
• But Washington been to majors bowls previous three seasons
• Boise could have chip on their shoulder passed over by Memphis as top non-Power 5 team
• Boise beat six bowl-bound teams
• Yes Washington terrible on third down, but time off benefits them 

The pick: Washington -3.5

College Basketball

SMU at Georgia (-4.5, 148)

• KenPom has it 5 and 145
• UGA frosh Anthony Edwards 19.8 points per game, 5.2 boards, 2.2 steals 
• SMU Isiah Mike 48.6 percent of the 37 3-pointers he’s attempted and has made 9 of 18 over the last five games. He’s also converted 90.3 percent of his foul shots this season
• Georgia has won its last five home games, scoring an average of 92.6 points while giving up 72.2.

The pick: Georgia -4.5

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Joe Duffy with a big day and some free picks. JDP with four winning NBA including a Wise Guy side. Still like those coin flips on three and four-letter network websites from aspiring writers who know nada about handicapping? Welcome back to winners from a 31-year professional. It’s all I’ve done my adult life. Your degenerate handicapper wins.  Get the picks now

Jazz at Hawks 

• Teams that have lost at least 16-of-18 SU and getting 6 or more points decent 411-363-17 (Atlanta) 
• Teams that lost 16-of-18 versus an opponent won at least three straight are 100-75-4 (Atlanta)
• John Collins serving suspension for Hawks
  • 17 points per game, 8.8 rebounds per game
• Jazz G Mike Conley it out after re-injuring hamstring 
  • 13.6 points per game, 3.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists 

The pick: It’s a Wise Guy at OffshoreInsiders.com    

Lakers at Bucks

• Anthony Davis missed Tuesday, but should play tonight
  • 27.4 points per game, 9.3 rebounds per game
• Two teams with winning percentages .850 or over goes UNDER 74-59
• Kyle Kuzma out for Lake Show
  • 11.1 points per game, 3.4 rebounds 
• Thursday’s game between the Lakers and Bucks is the second-ever in a full NBA season to pit two teams with four or fewer losses on Dec. 19 or later.

No pick

Nets at Spurs

• Nets Nwaba is probable with sprained right ankle 
  • This month averaging 8.9 points per game, 2.6 rebounds in 16.6 minutes
• Jarrett Allen on fire for Nets. Over the last 17 games, Allen is averaging 14.5 points on 68.8 percent shooting, plus 11.7 rebounds per game. He’s risen to second in the NBA with a 65.5 percent field goal percentage
• Nets 11-5 record dating back to Nov. 15, the Nets are second in the NBA over that stretch in opponent field goal percentage (41.9) and opponent effective field goal percentage (48.5). They’re also ninth in defensive rating (105.1) over the same span
• LeBron admits 17 years in and 239 playoff games, not overly excited 

The pick: Brooklyn Nets +2.5

Rockets at Clippers

• Houston’s Eric Gordon remains out
  • 10.9 points per game, 1.9 rebounds 
• JaMychal Green is out for Clippers 
  • 7.4 points per game, 6.6 rebounds 
• Clippers much better home than on road, but no real edge
• Early money on dog, which is rare, but public does love quality dogs 

The pick: LA Clippers -5

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We are 3-1 with supplemental rotation playoff picks from Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. Yes, these exploit the same metrics that have made Duffy widely accepted as the industry standard and top sports handicapper in history. 

CFB

Wise Guy

James Madison-Weber State UNDER 47 at 5 Dimes  

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 834-507. A somewhat similar angle is 43-19 though obviously with much tighter parameters. 

Major

MONTANA STATE +17.5 North Dakota State at Bet Now   

Fading home teams off bad offensive efforts is 256-167-14. Fading teams off great defensive efforts is 134-93-2. Shockingly, this is the first time in history these systems combine in the same game. 

I am 69-40 with all football picks! Wise Guy and Major in college football for Friday. Saturday, what a windfall! Pre-Christmas Game and Total of the Year both go among six bowl winners. Three NFL Saturday led by two Wise Guys. Sunday, a stunning five Wise Guys and four Majors. Monday, another bowl Major. All this from Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com    

NFL and NBA free picks and football weather from OffshoreInsiders.com    

NFL

Free

MIAMI +3 +105 NY Giants

Bad road teams off a loss that was not a blowout are 251-149. Consecutive road games, team off a loss is 314-217. Road underdogs off a loss in which they covered are 85-50. 

NBA

NFL live lines, latest odds from MYBookie offering a $1,000 sign-up bonus!

Major

PHILADELPHIA -5 Brooklyn

Big road favorites despite splits that favor home team is 497-375-21. Rest dynamics generally benefit the home team. However, when the road team is more rested, it nullifies the normal home court advantage and creates an off line to the tune of 371-289-8. When both apply, it is 59-39-2 for 60.2 percent.

Weather NFL

Wind conditions of concern

Game	Wind Speed
Miami Dolphins at New York Giants	17 mph
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers	15 mph

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Joe Duffy is 34-17 NFL and a draw-dropping 64-36 in football. Wise Guy Navy UNDER the latest! Six NFL Wise Guys, five NFL Majors. Seven basketball added! That is $1.61 a winner! Get the picks now