Time to analyze Super Bowl 48 odds and the early line movement between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks. The game in East Rutherford, NJ (though the media is assured to say, “New York” ad nausea) and potential cold weather could be a factor. The line opened up with Seattle as a one-point favorite at most sportsbooks with a total of 48. Money immediately flowed in on Denver and has seen the Broncos as much as a (-2.5) favorite. The total has remained steady at 47.5 says free sports picks though a 48 has been spotted at some offshore houses.
What is even more compelling is that heading into the conference finals, several major sportsbooks had an AFC vs. NFC prop to win the Super Bowl. The NFC was favorite by (-3). With both favorites winning, the likely matchup was Seattle and Denver when the spread was bettable.
So what has changed? The betting public has a very short attention span. The Broncos were dominant in dismantling New England 26-16 in a game that was not nearly as competitive as the final score would imply.
Seattle went down to the final possession against the 49ers, needing a now infamous Richard Sherman interception to preserve victory. Furthermore, Peyton Manning tossed for 400 touchdowns, assuaging the critics who questioned his big-game prowess.
In addition to short-term perception, Vegas contacts have told me they believe the Billy Walters picks betting syndicate is trying to manipulate the spread to (-3) to enable them unload on Seattle.
We expect the total to drop a bit, but probably not much until weather forecasts come in early next week for Super Bowl XLVIII. Speaking of weather, bettors should not fall prey to the inductive statistics that Peyton Manning struggles in cold weather.
Manning spent most of his career playing home games inside of a dome. Therefore his cold weather games were on the road. Wind conditions negatively affect offenses. A “Normal” amount of snow or rain, with wind below 10 mph, usually benefits the offense. When square players bet a total down because of rain or snow with negligible wind speed, it creates better value for the over.
Finally, one of our Golden Rules of sports betting applies here. The dictionary is a valuable tool when it comes to handicapping neutral games. Neutral games are neither home nor road games.
Squares robotically accept as true that that road statistics should be weighted more heavily in handicapping neutral games thinking it is a road game for both teams. No, a road game means a contest on their opponent’s field in front of their fans. The Super Bowl is a neutral contest for both squads.
Considering the more antiseptic atmosphere of the Super Bowl will allow each team to communicate audibles, the thought of road statistics slanted during evaluation is a delusion held exclusively by the inept gambler.
Market value in a point spread is without question among the most overlooked facets of sports betting. Knowledge of how much odds are based on perception and how much is based in reality is the most significant step in exploiting market fluctuations.