Fade the public? Here is Week 1 NFL odds contrarian and public betting early look.
Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Seattle 72, Buffalo 70; Arizona OVER 86, Tampa OVER 84
Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Arizona 92, Miami 82, Las Vegas 82; New England UNDER 99, Buffalo UNDER 99, Minnesota UNDER 93
Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Las Vegas P to -3, Pittsburgh -3 to -6
There are several theories on how to use this information. Percentage of bets counts a $5 bet the same as a $5,000 wager. Many of those who believe in betting against the public assert the most valuable fades are from the person betting $10 on a seven-team parlay.
Analysis: The public loving underdog Arizona as an underdog, both in terms of tickets and cash is substantial. Conversely, the public loves road favorites, especially smaller ones. Seattle being the top consensus play is expected, Arizona a definite outlier.
Some sharps declare that the bookies always win, so root for the same games they are hoping win. Thus, fading the liabilities wins most long-term. The top sports handicapper Joe Duffy explains how the sharpest gamblers exploit contrarian betting, weighing information accordingly.
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