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CENTRAL FLORIDA -7.5 Georgia Tech
Tech off big upset over paper tiger Florida State. Mike Novell was not going to clean up mess he was left with after one game. Home dogs of 7.5 or more off win as dog of 10.5 or more are a 74-61-1 go-against. A 54.8 percent stat is not in and of itself anything special, but it does corroborate my belief this is a big letdown.
Tech is only in year two of a completely new system, so expect inconsistency. UCF QB Dillon Gabriel set a freshman record for passing yards with 3,653 and threw for 29 TDs with seven interceptions. Of the three computer programs/power ratings that are proven to win long-term, the only one with a strong bet has UCF covering 78.4 percent of simulations and winning by 21 in the strongest bet of the week.
Admittedly, the public does like dogs more this year, but over the years when public likes a big underdog, it is a strong contrarian play. With 59 percent of bets on Tech, a very good contrarian value for UCF. One of the many reasons I am more successful than any other handicapper is knowing how to properly weigh contrarian bets. It’s not based on mere percentages, but whether or not the public is on a dog, favorite, and most importantly how big of a chalk or pup the public is betting. Using weighted metrics, it is a good contrarian bet In fact, an outlaw source that leans even heavier on chalk has 57 percent of bets on Tech.