VegasExpecting Record Level Bets

Chicago is a seven-point underdog in the Super Bowl, but the city is an overwhelming favorite with bookmakers, who think Bears fans will help push betting on the big game to record levels.
Nevada casinos and Internet wagering sites are counting on a combination of a nationwide fan base, an intriguing match-up between the Bears’ stout defense and the Colts’ jet-powered offense and the fervor that comes from a big city starved for a football championship.
Super Bowl betting, though, isn’t just a matter of whether the Bears will win or lose: People can gamble on everything from how many rushing yards Thomas Jones will gain to how long it will take Billy Joel to sing the national anthem.
Still, most money goes toward the outcome of the game, and high rollers already have begun to put down six-figure bets.
Though the majority of the wagers won’t come until the weekend, the heaviest cash so far is on the Bears’ side of the ledger, said Robert Walker, sports book director for the MGM Mirage casinos.
“Chicago is a very popular team, a huge city, with a storied program,” he said. “They’re just one of those franchises that when they get to the big game, they’re going to enhance it.”
Though experts estimate that the NCAA men’s basketball tournament has become the nation’s biggest overall gambling event, the Super Bowl remains by far the largest single game for wagering.
Casinos in Nevada – one of the few states in which sports betting is legal – took in $94 million last Super Bowl, and expect to top $100 million this year.
Frank Streshley, senior analyst for the Nevada Gaming Control Board, said the strengthening economy of the last few years has been chiefly responsible for the increased wagering, but that the teams playing also makes a difference.
“The Colts and the Bears have a large base of fans – especially Chicago,” he said.
Chuck Esposito, a native of the northwest Chicago suburbs who helps run the sports book at Caesar’s Palace in Las Vegas, said Chicago fans seem more willing than others to put their money where their hearts are.
Before the football season begins each year, he said, more people pick the Bears to win the championship than any other team, regardless of how the squad is shaping up (the same is true with the Cubs). They were at 12-to-1 odds for this season, so an optimistic fan who put down $100 a year ago would collect $1,200 with a victory Sunday.
Esposito said most of his colleagues rooted for the Bears and the Colts during the playoffs, figuring that matchup would spur the most action.
“You have offense against defense, two of the most popular players with (Colts quarterback) Peyton Manning and (Bears linebacker) Brian Urlacher,” he said. “It’s just a dream matchup for the viewing public – a dream matchup for the betting public, too.”
Some Internet-based casinos also foresee a big day. Calvin Ayre of Antigua-based Bodog.com, which takes wagers from all over the globe, said through a spokesman that betting on the Super Bowl probably would be second only to last year’s World Cup soccer championship.
Internet gambling is not legal in the United States – credit-card companies and banks are prohibited from processing online wagering transactions – and Ayre said his company no longer markets to the country. But BetUS.com, a site based in Costa Rica, still accepts American wagers.
Spokesman Reed Richards wouldn’t comment on how American gamblers are placing their bets. Richards did say, though, that bets coming from Chicago and Indianapolis are split almost 50-50, reflecting an enthusiasm that he believed would drive the 10-year-old site to a record day.
“You’re seeing two teams that haven’t made an appearance in quite some time,” he said. “There’s a little bit classic Americana being played there. It’s nice to see a break from teams like the Patriots.”
Chicago area bookies might be in for a windfall of their own, even though they tend to set firm limits on what their customers can bet, said FBI spokesman Ross Rice.
“They don’t want them to get down too far (so they) won’t be able to pay,” he said.
“A new player, someone who bets (only) for the Super Bowl, will have a small limit.”
Jay Kornegay, executive director of race and sports at the Las Vegas Hilton, said half of his business will come from proposition bets, side wagers on everything from the total number of punts in the game, to who wins the coin toss, to whether Rex Grossman will throw a touchdown or an interception first. (Oddsmakers say a pick is more likely.)
“Even though it might seem like a routine play, we know you can hear little groans or applause because some player just went over seven yards,” he said.
Alan Palmer, who trades grains and metals at the Chicago Board of Trade, said some of his colleagues are going wild over the game, putting down as much as $10,000.
And even though he rarely bets on sports, he said a small win on Sunday would be far sweeter than any big victory in the trading pits.
“I’m taking the Bears at seven (points), come on!” he said.
Source: Daily Press

War on Gambling a Boon For Corner Bookie

On Sunday, a 28-year-old Hollywood assistant named Seth plans to enjoy the Super Bowl in the same way millions of other football fans will: He’ll bet on it.
How, exactly, will he wager that $100 burning a hole in his pocket? One thing he knows for sure is that he won’t do it legally. Trekking to Vegas for the weekend is out of the question. And he won’t do it using one of the publicly traded online services based abroad that have been taking sports bets from Americans over the past few years. They have mostly stopped taking action from U.S. residents in the wake of an aggressive government crackdown on Internet wagering.
But that doesn’t mean he and other gamblers will be shut out. In fact, the government’s war against illegal online wagering may be driving gamblers back to where they started: their local bookie. And in an ironic twist, there’s a good chance the bookmaker is taking bets over the Internet, too.
“Even my bookie is online these days,” says Seth. He would be logging in to place his bet but misplaced the username and password the bookmaker gave him. “I guess I’ll just have to call him and get him to resend me the instructions, sort of a tech support for the sports bettor,” he says.
The government’s crackdown has, in recent months, targeted executives at offshore Internet-gambling outfits and the foreign credit-card-processing companies that facilitate the transactions with U.S. bettors. But while it may have dented the $12-billion-a-year online-gambling industry, it didn’t break it.
No one thinks that American gamblers’ appetites have waned either. Last year, about $94.5 million was legally wagered on the Super Bowl in Nevada casinos, the only place in the land where it’s lawful to bet on sports. Illegally, the American Gaming Association – a casino-industry trade group – figures that Americans bet between $5 billion and $6 billion each year on football’s marquee event.
“The likely impact is that people who previously wagered on legal, regulated sites… will now call a local bookie or bet on an unregulated site,” says Alan Feldman, a spokesman for casino giant MGM Mirage.
It’s true that many of the publicly traded online-gambling sites have pulled out of the U.S. market since last summer. Some have folded entirely. And the Justice Department served subpoenas to a number of investment banks that allegedly helped underwrite foreign public-stock offerings for some of the companies.
But as the kickoff at Super Bowl XLI in Miami gets nearer, the overall picture of Internet gambling has only gotten muddier. It’s not just that local bookies are taking bets over the Internet. For every established Internet-gambling company that has stopped accepting bets from the U.S., others have cropped up to fill the void.
“The online-gambling ban should be renamed the Sopranos Support Bill,” says Wayne Allyn Root, an outspoken professional sports handicapper in Las Vegas. “All of this money has moved to brand-new, privately held companies [that] opened overnight and [are] run by criminals engaging in fraud and organized crime.”
“The crackdown has taken the online bets out of a fairly transparent set of companies and put them into companies that aren’t transparent at all,” adds Sue Schneider, president and CEO of River City Group, a St. Charles, Mo., Internet-gambling consultancy. “Players could be more at risk.”
To eliminate paper trails and take advantage of technology, some bookmakers have apparently joined forces with offshore-betting sites and now issue their clients account numbers. Bettors log on to the Web sites like ordinary gamblers and enter their account numbers. But instead of sending credit-card data, they simply make their bets, which are linked electronically to their bookie’s name. The bookie keeps track of his clients online but still collects debts and pays winnings the old-fashioned way: in person. He likely pays a cut to the Web-site operators.
Nelson Rose, a law professor and expert in gambling law, has fielded dozens of phone calls from casual gamblers since the U.S. government went on the offensive. The No. 1 question: “Will I get arrested for betting on sports?” His response: “About as likely as the chances of their winning the World Series of Poker.” In other words: not likely.
But even before the government’s sudden interest in chasing down online-gambling companies, some sports bettors found the online experience frustrating. Most online-gambling sites required U.S. bettors to open an online account and deposit a certain sum via credit card. Betting losses would be deducted from the account and wins credited.
Seth once had an account like this, but after a few months of losses, he decided it was too laborious and resumed using his local bookmaker. Months later, he says, he still receives annoying telemarketing calls from the site.
For the Super Bowl, Seth says that if logging onto his bookie’s site is too complicated, he may just skip the bet altogether. “I don’t think I’d work that hard just to lose $100,” he adds.
Source: Sun News

Report: WTO to US: You Broke International Law

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has ruled against the US in an online gambling dispute with the Caribbean island of Antigua and Barbuda. The US is breaking international trade rules, it is expected to say.
Though the ruling is still private, Reuters has reported that the WTO has found the US guilty of not complying with a 2005 order in the case.
Antigua and Barbuda has built up a significant internet gambling industry to replace falling tourist revenue and took the US to the WTO over entry to the US gaming market.
Laws passed previously banned non-US companies from operating in the US gaming market. Antigua argued that this was an illegal trade restriction and broke a free trade pact that the US had signed.
A WTO dispute resolution panel found in Antigua’s favour in 2003. The US appealed but the Appeals Board found largely for Antigua in 2005. The WTO has now found that the US has not tried hard enough to stick to that decision.
Antigua had taken a case relating to a ban on all bets placed across state lines. The WTO, though, only ruled in its favour in relation to the narrower issue of horse race betting across state lines. It found that foreign bookmakers seemed to suffer discrimination.
The WTO has provided both sides with a preliminary report on its findings. Both parties can submit further comments to it before a final report is published in March.
A spokesperson for the US Trade Representative told Reuters that the ruling was only a minor issue. “[We] did not agree with the United States that we had taken the necessary steps to comply with that ruling,” she said. “The panel’s findings issued today involve a narrow issue of federal law.”
Since the disputed laws were passed in the US further, more stringent anti-online gambling legislation has been passed. Last autumn, the US passed laws which made almost all internet gambling illegal in the US and several online gambling executives have been held by US authorities.
The US has the opportunity to appeal the latest ruling after it is published in March.
Source: The Register

Thursday News and Notes

Thursday, February 1,
2007

Here are news and notes from OffshoreInsiders.com
private clipboard. They are compiled from hometown newspapers
and the team’s own press releases. The latest on the DOJ’s War on Gambling at CasinoBettingNews.com

CBB

Old Dominion-Drexel

Press Notes

Dragons and Monarchs are tied for third place in the
league with 8-3 records. Drexel is 16-5 on the season overall while the Monarchs
begin play with a 15-7 record. This will be the second meeting of the year
between the two schools. Old Dominion defeated the Dragons earlier this season
in Norfolk, 84-57. ODU made 10 three-pointers in the game and shot 59 percent
from the floor. Drexel committed 15 turnovers in the game and shot just
3-for-15 from behind the three-point arc. Old Dominion has won three straight
games and five of its last seven. Drexel has won four of its last five,
including a 68-59 win at Northeastern on Monday night.

South Alabama-New Orleans

Press Notes

It is Homecoming Week at the University
of New Orleans
, and the Privateer basketball team gets to celebrate by hosting one of the
hottest teams in the Sun Belt Conference.
UNO will host Sun Belt Conference leader South
Alabama
. The game will feature a South Alabama
team that has won eight straight games. The Jaguars (15-7, 9-2 Sun Belt) are
coming off a 90-89 overtime win over North Texas after defeating
Louisiana-Monroe two days earlier despite missing three suspended starters. USA
has also been boosted by 6-9 forward Ernest Little. Little, who became eligible
on Dec. 16 after transferring from UAB, has averaged
12.9 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. He missed the North Texas
game due to personal reasons, and his status for Thursday’s contest is unknown.
For the Privateers (10-11, 6-4 Sun Belt), the game begins a busy February. UNO will play eight games during the month and will play
four of the next five on the road. UNO has lost three
straight to the Jaguars but has won five of the last six games in New
Orleans
.

 

St. Louis-St. Joseph’s

College Publisher

The Hawks are caught in a tough stretch of games and are
finding themselves playing good teams night in and night out. Three of the four
games were against conference opponents that were the preseason top three and
the fourth game was an always tough city opponent. St. Joe’s had a very good
win against Xavier, let one slip on the road to George Washington, had another
big win against Big 5 adversary Penn, and now the Hawks must battle Saint
Louis
at the Alumni Fieldhouse.
The Hawks lost four players from last year’s team, including the top three
scorers. No excuses are being made for St. Joe’s, but the Billikens
come in with an extreme edge in experience. Saint Louis
comes into this game struggling inside the conference. To this day they have
posted a below .500 record of 3-4 and are looking to even it out against the
Hawks. Devastating losses to Temple,
Fordham, St. Bonaventure, and Duquesne are what set back St.
Louis
.
Although the Billikens have dropped some games
against a few of the weaker teams in the conference, they do have some
impressive wins. Wins against Xavier and Rhode Island
bolstered their record and showed that the Billikens
do have the talent and ability to succeed. Also, Saint
Louis
has gone 13-7 in the season, three of those
losses coming to top 25 teams in the country and the other four against
Atlantic 10 conference teams.

 

Washington State-Arizona

LA Times

Despite losing a stunning five of their last seven games,
the Wildcats’ Ratings Percentage Index ranking is still No. 6, so Lute Olson’s
22-year NCAA tournament appearance streak appears fine. Still, Arizona has
rarely looked as bad as it has during its recent offensive funk, going one for
23 from three-point range against North Carolina, and shooting less than 40%
from the field in three of the last four games. At 14-6, Arizona
looks tired and beaten. You can blame the nonconference
schedule Olson made, which is rated the most difficult in the country, just
ahead of UCLA’s. Or you can blame the luck of the draw with the Pac-10
schedule, which already has taken Arizona
to Washington, Washington
State, USC and UCLA, handing the Wildcats three of their four Pac-10 losses on
the road. Other factors seem to be at work too, though. There’s Arizona’s
lack of depth: All five starters average more than 31 minutes a game, and point
guard Mustafa Shakur averages more than 35. The
emergence of freshman forward Jordan Hill, who logged major minutes and made a
big contribution the last two games, could help, along with the return of
forward Bret Brielmaier, who had been out after minor
knee surgery. Leading scorer Marcus Williams is expected to play after being
suspended for unspecified reasons for the Arizona
State
game and missing much of the North
Carolina
game because of a sprained ankle.

Duke-Virginia

Scout

The early season setbacks against Virginia Tech and
Georgia Tech are now distant memories for this young Blue Devil team after
reeling off five consecutive wins including decisions over Clemson and Boston
College
– two teams that were above
Duke in the standings at tip off. Meanwhile the Cavaliers have surprised many
with their run to a 5-2 start in ACC play. After all this was the same Virginia
team that lost to Appalachian State in Puerto Rico in
December. After losing to North Carolina
and at Boston College,
the Cavaliers have dispatched Maryland,
Wake Forest, NC
State, and Clemson by an average of 9.5 points per game. Duke enters the game
with third year sophomore David McClure listed as questionable after the 6’6
wing fell to the ground with a hyper extended knee against Boston
College
on Sunday night. Meanwhile
the Cavaliers are looking to get a shot in the arm with the return of 6’9
junior post player Ryan Pettinella, who suffered a
dislocated knee cap in the San Juan Shootout during the team’s final game
against the University of Puerto Rico-Mayaguez. Pettinella was in uniform for UVa’s
win at Clemson on Sunday, but did not play. On Wednesday, he looked good in
practice, leading the way in sprints at the end of the session. He also looked
good in controlled scrimmages according to the local UVa
beat writers.


Wednesday News and Notes

Wednesday, January
31, 2007

 

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CBB

Xavier-Duquesne

Post Gazette

Duquesne coach Ron Everhart opened up the court to give
his players an opportunity to utilize their quickness and athletic skills to
overcome their lack of height. It was a gamble that quickly has hit the jackpot
for the Dukes, who wore down Dayton,
93-89, and Temple, 96-92, after a
101-87 loss at Massachusetts that
would have been a lot closer had they made their free throws in the final
minutes. Duquesne hadn’t scored 90 or more points in consecutive games since
1992-93 and had its highest points total against a Temple
team. The Dukes had scored more than 80 points only once in 47 previous games
against the Owls. Everhart’s biggest concern about Xavier is the little point
guard who runs the show, 5-7 Drew Lavender, who is in his first season with the
Musketeers after transferring from Oklahoma.
He is a one-man press-breaker who will put Duquesne’s defense to its toughest
test yet. Neither Dayton nor Temple
had a true playmaker to direct traffic against Duquesne’s relentless pressure,
which created a total of 53 turnovers in those two games. The Musketeers are
living up to their preseason billing as the team to beat in the A-10. The
Dukes, meanwhile, are inching up in the standings and find themselves in the
middle of the pack rather than near the bottom as was predicted before the
season.

Wisconsin-Indiana

Appleton Post
Crescent

Wisconsin is
the only Big Ten team without a conference loss. Wisconsin
leads the Big Ten in scoring defense at 56.6 points per conference game.
Overall, UW is 13th in the nation in scoring defense at 57.5 points.
The Badgers are 5-0 in true road games this season. Indiana
is 27-4 all-time against the Badgers at Assembly Hall. The Hoosiers have won 13 straight games at
Assembly Hall.

George Washington-Dayton

Rivals

The Dayton Flyers finally return home after what seems
like a 25-game road trip, when in all actuality it was just two games. Dayton
dropped both road games last week, but return home to face streaking George
Washington on Wednesday evening at UD Arena. While
the two teams may be headed in opposite directions, the Flyers have yet to lose
on their home floor all season long.

Vanderbilt-Tennessean

Tennessean

Asking if it’s tough to play at the O’Connell Center, home
of the top-ranked defending national champion Florida Gators, is about like
asking if it’s tough to play in The Swamp — the school’s football counterpart.“There are a lot of tough places in our league,
but it’s as difficult as any,” Vanderbilt Coach Kevin Stallings said of his
team’s next destination, as the 24th-ranked Commodores Wednesday
night go looking for their third straight Southeastern Conference road win
against a Top 25 opponent. Riding a four-game winning streak, including
victories at Kentucky and Louisiana
State
, the Commodores have every
reason to feel good about themselves.

Stats Inc.

The Commodores started the season 1-3, but have since won
14 of 17. They are 5-0 against ranked opponents during that stretch, with wins
over Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Alabama,
Kentucky and LSU.

Memphis-Central Florida

Stats Inc.

Since a 79-71 loss on Dec. 20 to
then-No.
9 Arizona, Memphis
(17-3, 7-0) has won nine in a row while building a 2 ½-game conference lead
over second-place teams Central Florida (15-5, 4-2),
Houston and Rice. For the third straight game, Memphis
was held below 40 percent from the field and failed to record more than 10 assists.Despite his team nearly getting upset,
Calipari thought the game was important for the
development of his team, which starts three sophomores and a freshman. Chris
Douglas-Roberts returned to the lineup Saturday after missing the two previous
games because of a high ankle sprain. The sophomore guard, who leads the team
with 14.8 points per game, was only 3-of-7 from the field but got to the
free-throw line 12 times and made nine to finish with 15 points. Memphis
has won by double digits in all three of its league games on the road after losing
its only two true road games in non-conference play at Tennessee
and Arizona. This will be Memphis
first game at Central Florida, which has won 12 straight
home games since a Feb. 15 loss to Houston.
All four previous meetings were in Memphis
and the Tigers won them all, including a 94-61 victory last season. The only
other time a ranked team played at UCF Arena came on Dec. 12, 2002, and the Golden
Knights upset then-No. 25 College of Charleston 82-64.
Central Florida is 0-15 in all other games against
ranked teams.The Golden Knights are returning home to
play in front of a sellout crowd after playing six of its eight games this
month, including the last two, on the road.

Minnesota-Northwestern

Press Notes

Minnesota
takes to the road hoping to snap an eight-game road losing streak in Evanston,
Ill.
Minnesota
junior center Spencer Tollackson has missed the past
five games due to a broken left (non-shooting) hand. Tollackson
is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. Minnesota
holds a 82-56 all-time lead in the series (not
including vacated games). The Wildcats lead the series in Evanston
36-33. Northwestern has won the last six
meetings including a, 55-40 win in Minneapolis
on January 20. The Gophers snapped their five-game losing streak Saturday with
a 65-60 victory over Penn State.
Northwestern had the weekend off after battling Ohio
State
to the final minutes before
losing 59-50 in Evanston on
Wednesday.

 


Class, Motivation, and Form

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Handicapping techniques can be loosely grouped into
evaluating teams in three categories: class, motivation, and form.

Class meaning the quality of the respective teams, form is
recent play and I hope motivation is apparent.

One may immediately ask about injuries. That is covered under the “class” umbrella as
the sharp player makes adjustments to roster changes, be it trade, injury, star
minor leaguer, surprising and disappointing performers, etc.

Motivation includes mental state. So letdowns, sandwich
games, revenge, playoff ramifications are among the issues in said subset.

Form should be weighed in direct proportion to how often
the sports play. In other words, baseball,
which plays every day, is the sport where recent form is slanted the heaviest,
while football is where we adjust it to the smallest value.

There is no perfect interval to rate form, but as we’ve
said it should be number of days, not games in the apples-to-apples comparison.
For example, in comparing recent form of the Lakers to the Spurs, most use last
five games. We prefer the last 10
days.

Nothing can, for good or bad, alter recent form as much as
time off. This explains why momentum is most important in baseball and least in
football.

The old adage of cream rising to the top…or dung sinking
to the bottom does have a great deal of truth to the handicapper. So across the board, quality is far and away
the primary derivative in sports gambling.

The public tends to overreact to aberrational recent
performance, especially in high profile game. The oddsmakers are aware of this.
Hence the ability to see the big picture is one of the great qualities a
gambler can have.

Famed British writer Daniel Finkelstein of The Times in
the UK wrote
concerning English soccer, “form is temporary, class is permanent.” We find
this quite accurate in North American sports as well.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is the CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
the premier source for professional handicapper selections.


Depleted Jazz

Depleted Jazz

By Marty
Gitlin
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

The Utah Jazz haven’t exactly been tearing up NBA hardwoods since the final page was turned on 2006.

And now they’ve added injury to insult.

The Jazz, who are 6-7 since Jan. 5, will be without their starting forwards Monday night against visiting New Jersey. Leading scorer and rebounder Carlos Boozer will miss his first game this season with an injured knee while Andrei Kirilenko is out with a sprained right ankle.

The extent of Boozer’s injury will be known after more tests are conducted. He has enjoyed his finest season at 22 points and 12 rebounds a game, which is fourth in the NBA. Boozer hurt the knee
Saturday night when he collided with New Orleans center Tyson Chandler.

Kirilenko, who missed five games earlier in the year with an injury to the same ankle, is expected to return later this week.

The injuries have played a role in the odds for Monday night’s game, but WagerWeb.com still lists the Jazz as 2-point favorites against the Nets, who broke a three-game losing streak Saturday night in Denver.

SIGH OF RELIEF IN WINDY CITY: Chicago Bulls fans must have seen the season go up in smoke when center Ben Wallace crumpled to the floor after a collision with Miami’s Udonis Haslem Saturday night.

They held their collective breath, but didn’t need to fret. An MRI on Wallace’s left knee
showed no structural damage. Wallace is listed as day-to-day and could return as early as Wednesday night, when the Bulls start a seven-game road trip against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Wallace is averaging 6.5 points and 10.1 rebounds in his first season with Chicago since signing a free-agent contract during the offseason. He is eighth in the league at 2.12 blocked shots a game.

DRIBBLES: Talk about a glorious return. Milwaukee guard Mo Williams had missed the previous nine games with a sprained shoulder, but he scored a game-high 30 points, including a game-winning running jumper with 3.l seconds remaining, in a 107-105 victory Sunday over New York. … Cleveland threw a brief scare into visiting Phoenix on Sunday, but the Suns pulled away in the fourth quarter for a 115-100 road victory. The Suns will shoot for their 18th consecutive win Monday night
in Minnesota. They are a 5-point favorites, according to WagerWeb.com. … The battered Boston Celtics welcomed the return of swingman Wally Szczerbiak, but still lost Sunday to visiting Washington, 105-91. Their 11-game losing streak is their longest in 10 years. They also set a franchise mark by dropping nine in a row at home and have fallen behind Philadelphia into last place in the Atlantic Division. … Wizards forward Antawn Jamison has certainly given high-scoring point guard Gilbert Arenas plenty of offensive help recently. Jamison has scored 69 points on 26-of-45 (58 percent) shooting in the last two games.

NBA Props

NBA Props

By Chris Goudey
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

As
your resident Fantasy Sensei, it’s my job to provide you with tips and tricks you can use to dominate your fantasy leagues. Winning a fantasy league is great and a real good way to trash talk your friends, but at the end of the day all that smack doesn’t pay the bills. You might win $100-$200 in your league, but there is a way to use that skill to make some real money.

Most of the online sportsbooks offer what are called proposition bets for all the major sports. These are bets that are different from your standard point-spread or over/under bet in that you are usually betting on a single player to do something in a game. The skills you use to do well in fantasy (knowing playing time, hot/cold players, defensive matchups, etc.) can be applied in proposition betting as well.

There are some books (WagerWeb.com included) that
offer prop bets for individual NBA players. If you are a winning fantasy player, you can use the same stats you use to set your daily or weekly lineups to win money betting on NBA props. As an example, if you have done research and discovered that Lamar Odom has scored much better at home than he does on the road, you could possibly find a “Lamar Odom over/under x amount of points” bet on the day he has a home game and take advantage of that knowledge. In this case you’d bet Odom over whatever the amount of points is. If he was on the road for that particular game, you would bet under.

There are not many books out there that offer props that are unique to their site (many books copy other books’ lines), so it pays to research as many books as you can and have money in as many of these books with unique lines as possible. The reason to do this is you have access to as many “soft” or beatable lines as you
can. When you bet NBA props, it is very important to be able to bet them right as they get posted on the site. If you don’t get them right as they post, sharp bettors will force the book to change the original line, and it will make a less advantageous situation for you.

There are people who are very successful in prop betting, and they use the exact same skill set that any successful fantasy player would use. Defensive matchups in the NBA are extremely important and knowing which teams are stronger or weaker on that end of the court is crucial. You can study the stats for scoring defense, rebound margin, assist differential, and home/road splits and gain a huge advantage over most prop oddsmakers.

There are many soft lines posted, and the reason for that is simply because the
oddsmakers don’t have the time to do that in-depth research that a bettor might have. When there are 13 NBA games in a night, you’re talking about bets on up to 60-70 players, and when you see that many players posted, there are bound to be a few exploitable lines in there. The key to being a successful prop bettor is knowing which trends to look at (I use home/road splits, recent performance, and playing-time evaluation in addition to the defensive matchup) and taking advantage.

Before the bets get posted every day, I will set a line in my head for each player that I think will be put up. Let’s say for example, I think Dwyane Wade is going to have a total of 28 points. If I see a line like 25 put up, I’m going to jump on the over as soon as I see it. Being prepared ahead of time is critical because as I said, those lines move very quickly and you have to be ready. If I saw a 31 for Wade,
I’d pound the under.

Prop betting is becoming more and more popular as people get more involved in fantasy sports, and I think you’ll see a lot more props for all sports as we go forward. If you are prepared, know which numbers to study, and have access to the bets right as they post, you can become a big winner!

Colts Take Their Time

Colts Take Their Time

By Tim Sullivan
WagerWeb.com contributing writer

If we’re such a good story, if we’re such a hot item, then you can wait a day for us.

In essence, that’s what Colts coach Tony Dungy and his AFC champions were saying to the grumpy media types who have been up in arms over the fact that Indianapolis waited until today to arrive in Miami. The Bears? They cooperated and, like most Super Bowl teams, showed up on site, on Sunday afternoon, a full week before the big
game.

The Colts? They stayed in Indiana and jumped on a charter Monday morning.

“We understand the Super Bowl is not going to be normal. We just felt that that was the way to go,” Dungy said of the delayed strategy. “We’ll get a chance to get down there, and let the guys enjoy the city.”

Perhaps that’s the biggest reason he slowed things down. Miami isn’t the greatest place in the world to practice and prepare for the biggest game of the season, the tilt that Indianapolis is a 6.5-point favorite for on WagerWeb.com. There are distractions aplenty. Maybe one less day of those distractions will prove beneficial.

“Miami is a great place to visit and there are all kinds of things you can get into,” said
Bears rookie return man Devin Hester, who played at the University of Miami. “We do want to have a little fun, but be careful of your surroundings. We’re here to play a football game.”

So are the Colts, who will have many a question to answer on Tuesday, when Media Day commences and all those grouchy sportswriters can finally press record on their handhelds.

“We put our schedule together for what we thought was going to be the best for us to win,” Dungy said. “My thought was to take a couple of days away from it physically and emotionally.”

And it’s hard to argue with him. After all, the Colts, unlike the Bears, had to win three games to get to Miami. They’ve been facing critical games, week after week, for more than a month. Chicago, on the other hand, was on cruise control
leading up to the postseason, then had the benefit of the bye week, and didn’t have to travel a mile to play either of its two playoff games.

“I just want them to relax,” Dungy said.

Mission, apparently, accomplished. Now, it’s time to get to work.

HELP FOR ELI: Or so they think. The Giants, late on Sunday, named Chris Palmer their new quarterbacks coach. The former head coach of the Cleveland Browns will now be the primary tutor for struggling starter Eli Manning. Palmer has also worked on the staffs of New England, Jacksonville, Houston and Dallas.

Palmer is a decent hire, but you can look at his past results either way. On one hand, he truly helped Drew Bledsoe
while with the Cowboys, and Mark Brunell when he was with the Jaguars. Palmer worked under his current boss, Tom Coughlin, in Jacksonville, by the way.

But the jury is still out on David Carr, whom Palmer mentored in Houston. And Tim Couch, whom the new Browns staked their franchise to, was a complete bust.

Where Eli falls in that mix is anyone’s guess.

EXTRA POINTS: Maybe this is the reason we didn’t hear much from Richard Seymour this postseason. The Patriots defensive lineman will undergo arthroscopic knee surgery this offseason, but shouldn’t miss any of Coach Bill Belichick’s organized team activities. … Former Giants
running back Maurice Carthon, who was fired as offensive coordinator in Cleveland halfway through this season, could land in Arizona as a running backs coach this week.

First Half NBA Fantasy All Stars

NBA First-Half Fantasy All-Stars

By Chris Goudey
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

The final results have just come in on this season’s NBA All-Star voting, and while you see the typical names on the list of starters (Wade, LeBron, Garnett, Kobe, Duncan, etc…) for the East and West, in fantasy basketball all of these guys are pretty much doing what was expected of them. Those aren’t the guys that are going to win you a fantasy title because they give you the same great numbers year after year and you select them with your 1st and 2nd round picks. No, the players that win you fantasy titles are the ones you draft in the late rounds or acquire off free agency early in the year that become solid to outstanding NBA starters, so while you see the big names on the real All-Star squad, my All-Star team is going to look a lot different.

I’ll break these down by position because in fantasy, your lineup usually consists of point guards and shooting guards, not just “guards” like
they do in the real All-Star game. Here are the All-Stars from a fantasy perspective:

Point Guard:
Maurice Williams, Milwaukee – Mo was most likely a last-round or next-to-last round selection in most drafts, but has played like a 3rd-4th rounder. Williams was a backup last year to T.J. Ford, but became a starter this year when Ford was traded to Toronto in the off-season. Mo has been very solid across the board, averaging 17 ppg, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, and just over 1 3-pointer and 1 steal per game. Unfortunately he got hurt a couple of weeks ago and it’s now looking like he won’t be back for at least another couple of weeks, so hopefully his owners can wait it out until he returns. Williams might not make the end-of-year team because the Bucks acquired Earl Boykins to fill in for
him and Boykins has played just as well as Williams did. It remains to be seen what will happen because the team now has 5 guys for 3 spots (Mo, Boykins, Michael Redd, Charlie Bell, and Ruben Patterson), but as far as the 1st half is concerned, Mo is definitely an all-star.

Deron Williams, Utah – After a rookie season where he lagged in comparison to Chris Paul, the other PG taken early in the 2006 draft, Williams has shown why he was so highly regarded coming into it. D.Will was probably taken a few rounds before Mo so he gets the second spot instead of the first on my team, but his numbers are very close to his namesake. The one area where Deron is unquestionably better than Mo is in assists, where he averages 9.1 per game, tied for 2nd in the league with Jason Kidd. The rest of his numbers are almost identical to Mo, with Mo being a slightly
better rebounder. There is no reason why Deron can’t continue this play and could take over the top spot by the end of the season.

Honorable Mention: Leandro Barbosa, Phoenix; Earl Boykins, Denver-Milwaukee; Jarrett Jack, Portland

Shooting Guard:
Kevin Martin, Sacramento – Martin is another guy like Mo Williams, who was probably drafted very late if at all, but has put up almost “real” All-Star numbers. Martin has been an outstanding shooter, making almost 50% of his shots from the field and 88% from the line. In leagues that count those two categories he has made a world of difference because he’s taking a lot of shots, enough to average over 20 points per game. Add in 1.6 3-pointers per game and 1.2 steals and you’re looking at some great
fantasy numbers. Martin’s not much of a rebounder or passer but you can get those stats from your PG and your big guys.

Mike Miller, Memphis – Miller has just become a fantasy stud this season, combining deadly long-range shooting with a new-found love for rebounding and passing. The new uptempo game they are playing in Memphis is perfect for Miller, who was probably taken in the mid-late rounds in most drafts. Previously he had been known as just a 3-point shooter but this year he has really stepped up his game, going from 1.9 per game to 2.8 this year, which is 4th in the league behind Gilbert Arenas, Ray Allen, and J.R. Smith. The thing that’s making Miller a much better player this year are his assists (4.4 per game) and rebounds (5.9), which are very strong in comparison to most of the other players at the position. Miller is a true swing player, playing both
shooting guard and small forward, but I put him here because there are two small forwards that I couldn’t keep off the team.

Honorable Mention: Monta Ellis, Golden State; J.R. Smith, Denver; Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia

Small Forward:
Josh Howard, Dallas – Howard is one guy on this list that might make the “real” team, but that’s more because of his defense and his team’s record. For the fantasy team he makes it because he was probably a mid-round selection who is putting up 2nd round numbers. There is only one out of eight categories where Howard isn’t putting up at least good numbers, and that’s assists, which is no big deal for a small forward. You’d like a guy to have at least 4 assists per game but when he averages 20 points, 7.2 rebounds (outstanding for a SF), 1.5
3’s made, 1.3 steals, and even gets 1 block per game, you’re not going to complain when he’s only getting you 2 assists. Howard is a nice percentage shooter also, making 46% from the field and 83% from the line, so when you add all that up, you have your starter at SF.

Caron Butler, WashingtonIt’s hard to believe the Wizards got this guy for Kwame Brown, isn’t it? Butler has a shot at making the East All-Stars because of his outstanding improvement and the fact the Wiz currently have the best record in the conference. This guy is probably the biggest reason for the team’s improvement, despite the heroics of Mr. Hibachi Arenas. Caron is having a dream season, averaging 21 points, 8 rebounds (the best rebounding SF in the game if you don’t count Shawn Marion), 4 assists, and 2 steals. He’s also shooting 48% from the
field and 88% from the line. Those are just excellent all-around numbers. Butler is not a big shooter of the 3-ball, so hopefully if he’s on your team you’ve got some others who can do that, but with those other fantastic numbers he’s giving you, you’re probably sitting in a very nice position in your league.

Honorable Mention: Luol Deng, Chicago; Kyle Korver, Philadelphia; Matt Barnes, Golden State

Power Forward:
Al Jefferson, Boston – It took a month or so for Jefferson to get into the starting lineup thanks to the brilliant coaching of Doc Rivers, but now that he’s there, he might not come out for 10-12 years. Jefferson has just been a beast down low, averaging 15 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game since December. For a guy who was probably acquired off the waiver
wire, he’s really helping your team right now and is probably the best player that didn’t get drafted in most drafts this year.

David Lee, NY Knicks – If that honor doesn’t go to Jefferson, it might go to Lee, who has come out of nowhere to average almost 11 rebounds per game, and that’s in only 30 minutes per contest. If Isiah Thomas was smart he’d be playing Lee 40 minutes per game and then he’d probably be the leading rebounder in the league. Lee’s not a big scorer yet, only averaging 11 points per game, but he averages a fantastic 61% from the field and 79% from the line, which make him a valuable member of a fantasy team. By having a guy like Lee on your team you can afford to have a couple of low-percentage scorers (i.e. Allen Iverson or Gilbert Arenas) to balance it out.

Honorable Mention: Zach Randolph,
Portland and Carlos Boozer, Utah. Both guys are obviously having great years and are very nice values compared to where they were drafted, but remember this team is about guys who are going to win fantasy titles for you, and while I’m sure teams who own Zach and Booz are doing well, there are more 1st place teams who have Jefferson and/or Lee.

Center:
Andris Biedrins, Golden State: Anytime you can draft a guy who will get you 10 rebounds and 2 blocks per game in the last round, you’ve done very well for yourself. Biedrins is the guy who fits that description this year, and while he’s fallen off a bit recently, owners who have had him since the beginning of the year are sitting pretty. It remains to be seen how the recent trade the Warriors made where they acquired Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington will affect Biedrins, but as long as he
gets the minutes, he’ll keep producing the rebounds and blocks. He also shoots a lovely 62% from the field, so he’s like David Lee with the added bonus of 2 blocks per game.

Eddy Curry, NY Knicks: I didn’t think I’d ever see this guy on anyone’s all-star team because of his supposed attitude problems, but apparently Isiah has made one good coaching move this year. Curry’s having a career-best season, averaging 19.5 points on 59% shooting. Eddy was probably a late-round selection and while he doesn’t rebound as well as most big guys (7 per game) and doesn’t really give you any other numbers except good shooting and scoring, for his price tag he’s been a very nice value. If he could ever use that body to get some boards and block some shots he could be a real All-Star, but fantasy owners are still happy with him this year.

Honorable Mention: Mehmet Okur, Utah; Nick Collison, Seattle; Mark Blount, Minnesota; Alonzo Mourning, Miami

If you have a few of my All-Stars you are probably sitting pretty in your league and could be dominating if your stud players (the “real” All-Stars) have been healthy. The key for the 2nd half of the year is to pay attention the box scores every night and see who’s getting more playing time than they used to. That’s the way you can acquire guys ahead of your competition and stake your claim to your fantasy championship!

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