The 2009 Big East Basketball Tournament (for tickets check out the Guy Store) is about to tip off along with the Big 10, ACC, SEC, and other major conferences. The dopey gambler will fall prey to one of the single dumbest blunders that keep the sportsbooks thriving.

So often we warn gamblers about the mortal sin of using inductive rather than deductive reasoning. The quintessence of that is the rapid circulation of the insipid illogic of “all you have to do is pick the straight up winner of a game and chances are you will have the spread winner.” It’s always followed by some stat where the outright winner has covered 80 percent of the time.  Dah.

When an underdog wins they cover 100 percent of the time.  The favorite cannot cover unless they win outright.  It’s impossible.  The only scenario in which a team can win and not cover is when the favorite wins but by a smaller margin than the spread. 

Not shockingly the numbnuts who perpetuate unscientific preposterousness almost always quote stats relevant to the NBA or NFL.  In college sports there are more mismatches and hence larger spreads where the margin is larger for a favorite to win and not cover.

If a team is a 3.5 point favorite the only way the team that wins will not cover is for the favorite to win by one, two or three points. Any other result will have the team that wins covering.  At what percentage do these half-wits think a team should win and not cover?

Obviously the stupidity of this widely circulated inductive blather can be refuted from now until eternity.  Or at least until an underdog wins but fails to cover, whichever comes last.  But to those who subscribe to it as if there is any logic, thanks for keeping the books in business for the rest of us.

Since the prevailing premise behind this urban myth is “it’s so much easier to pick the SU winner than the spread winner” why don’t these fancied geniuses just pick dog winner after dog winner on the moneyline?

There are plenty of underdogs that win outright, many huge dogs in fact.  If one wants to postulate how much easier it is to pick the SU winner, why waste such foreknowledge on collecting $100 for every $110 risked?  Just keep picking those 250 dogs and get your money’s worth.

I don’t want to ruin this fool’s gold with such a logical question, but like I keep saying, I guess those pipe dreamers are needed to keep the books in business for the rest of us.  

No oddsmaker will go broke underestimating the intelligence of the betting public.

Get the March Madness odds on ScoresOddsPicks.com plus other articles at BetOnSports360.com

March Madness 2009 betting is here and the odds to win the NCAA Tournament are posted. So many worn out clichés cost square players tons of money, perhaps the myth about how experience is so important in the conference tournaments and the Big Dance topping the list.

In many respects we believe experience can be overrated in handicapping college basketball. We subscribe to the John Wooden adage of “give me talent”. That is so much truer now than it was then. Wooden, of course, coached when freshman were not eligible and when star players did not go to the NBA early.

This is not to say though, that experience is irrelevant. Having participated successfully in the big games is a significant factor when fused with talent.

But avoiding the temptation to go with a big underdog based on the sole fact of seniority is one reality the smart player has to be aware of, especially this time of the year. It’s a factor that gets overanalyzed come conference play and even more so in the Big Dance and NIT.

The fact is that squads with young players in key roles generally develop the most as the year goes on.

All in all, in late February and March, give me an underdog with an upside, a young cocky team too naïve to know they are not supposed to win.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are parts of the Dream Team of GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com

With the whole world watching, March Madness betting produces moments that live on forever in sports lore, Among those moments are amazing comebacks – improbable rallies that have people saying “Oh my God, did you see the game?” around the water cooler the next day. Let’s check out some of the most memorable comebacks in March Madness betting history.

WHEN: 2007 South regional matchup

WHO: Ohio State over Xavier

HOW: In one of the wildest March Madness betting comebacks in recent memory, favorite Ohio State trailed by 11 points with just over seven minutes to play. But the Buckeyes fought all the way back and tied the game with Ron Lewis’ buzzer-beating three-pointer before edging Xavier 78-71 in overtime.

WHEN: 1989 Southeast Regional matchup

WHO: South Alabama over Alabama

HOW: Imagine how much you’d have won if you took a halftime sportsbook line on South Alabama, who trailed by 16 points? They fought all the way back and won 86-84 thanks to a three-point dagger by Jeff Hodge with five seconds remaining.

WHEN: 1983 Championship final

WHO: North Carolina State over Houston

HOW: How often do online betting fans see a favorite blow a six-point lead with three minutes to go? It happened in 1983, when NC State stole the championship from Houston with an improbable comeback capped by a wild Dereck Whittenberg shot that was caught and converted into an alley oop by Lorenzo Charles. NC State 54, Houston 52.

Today in the Daily Sports Roundup: The Mavericks meet the Hornets and the Nuggets take on the Blazers, while the PGA Tour tees off at The Honda Classic.

Sports headlines…

The Dallas Cowboys have said N-O to T.O. Terrell Owens has been released by the Dallas Cowboys. Joe Duffy, the top football betting expert in the world says sources tell him that the Pokes will add Torry Holt…Nicole Murphy is the latest model to date a current or former NFL player: Michael Strahan.

Betting headlines…

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Tipping off on the hardwood  . . .

It’s Dallas at New Orleans in the opener of the NBA’s doubleheader on Thursday night. The last time these teams met on the court was back on January 14 in Texas, with the Hornets pulling out a 104-97 road upset. Chris Paul led the way for New Orleans with 33 points in that win, while David West and Peja Stojakovic had 16 apiece. Jason Terry tossed in 28 points in that losing cause for the Mavs.

The Nuggets will then host the Blazers in the second NBA game of the night. Denver and Portland last played in a back-to-back set on December 22 and 23, with each team winning at home. Portland grabbed a 101-92 win at home on the 23^rd, covering the 8-point spread. A day earlier in Denver the Nuggets rolled to a 97-89 win as a 3.5-point favorite; Chauncey Billups had 19 points in that contest.

The march toward Madness . . .

There are a couple of ranked Pac-10 teams in action on the college hoops schedule for Thursday night, with Stanford at No. 21 Arizona State, and Oregon State at No. 20 UCLA. The Bruins have struggled at just 3-3 over their last six contests, but they did manage to beat California 72-68 in their outing on Saturday.

No. 11 Villanova hosts Providence on Thursday, while No. 23 Illinois is at Penn State. As well, it’ll be Dayton at No. 17 Xavier in Atlantic-10 action. When the Musketeers and Flyers clashed back on February 11 Dayton rolled to a 71-58 home win. Chris Wright tossed in 19 points for the Flyers in the game, while Derrick Brown had a team-high 17 points for then-No. 14 Xavier in a losing cause.

Taking a trip around the rink . . .

The Coyotes will be in Boston to play the Bruins in one of nine games on the National Hockey League schedule for Thursday night. Boston came up short in a battle of top Eastern clubs on Tuesday, falling 4-2 to the Flyers. Phoenix hasn’t played since last Saturday, when they dropped a 3-1 home decision to the Blues.

Philadelphia returns to action on Thursday by hosting Calgary, who knocked off the Senators 6-3 on Tuesday in the first game of their Eastern swing. Also on the slate: Toronto at Washington, Edmonton at Ottawa, Pittsburgh at Florida, Columbus at Nashville, Dallas at Los Angeles, and Minnesota at San Jose. As well, the Islanders have a date with a division rival when they host the Rangers.

Rounding out the Roundup . . .

The PGA Tour hits the links at the PGA National Champion Course in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida on Thursday morning in The Honda Classic. Sergio Garcia is pegged as the 7/1 Vegas favorite to take home the trophy on the weekend, with Ernie Els right behind him on that list at 8/1 odds. Els is the defending Honda Classic champion, beating Luke Donald by one stroke in 2008.

Camilo Villegas is next at 10/1 odds to win this week, followed by Rory McIlroy at 12/1 odds, and then Robert Allenby at 15/1 odds. Donald won this tournament in 2006, but he has withdrawn from this year’s event. As well, 2007 champion Mark Wilson is back at 35/1 odds to get another win in this tournament, while Justin Leonard, who won The Honda Classic in ’03, is listed at 20/1 on the Vegas chart.