Was the Bears-49ers game on NFL Network supposed to be an announcerless telecast? Why didn’t they do that when Bryant Gumbel was doing the telecasts?

Everyone has a friend whose betting strategy is simple as it is stupid: lay chalk across the board. He tries to convince you taking USC -45 over Washington State is the lock of the week despite the fact that the Trojans have yet to cross the 30-point barrier all season. The Yankees at -325 with CC on the mound? No problem, the Yanks have won nine straight! You forget to inform him he hasn’t done his homework because the Evil Empire clinched the night before and is starting their AAA lineup behind Sabathia. Sometimes these chalk bettors just need to learn a lesson.  Now you have to lend this chump buffet money for the rest of the trip because he forgot the number one sports handicapping rule: don’t fall in love with favorites.

Laying chalk is a strategy oddsmakers easily countered with inflated spreads, run/pucklines (my obligatory hockey shout out for the year) and severely juiced moneylines. In a sport like baseball, the best team usually hovers around a .600 winning percentage so why risk taking any team at higher than -150? The only value you can find here is creating your own teaser or parlay, and well, we all know how that goes. (link to last entry here)

This leads us to the 2009 NFL season. In my season opening blog at Coopers Sports Picks and not a fish blog, I did my best to steer anyone who works hard for their money as far away from the No Fun League as possible. That was before weeks 1-7 proceeded to destroy my “NFL is the perfect parity machine” theory. This season has officially mutated into a chalk bettor’s heaven. The big dogs (Saints, Giants, Colts) are covering double-digit spreads with ease. This past week we saw favorites go 9-2-1 with six teams covering a touchdown or larger spread. Every week the sharps have warned Joe Public that the all-knowing oddsmakers will even out this number with painful results for those who choose to jump on the chalk bandwagon. The result? We’re one week away from mid-season and the favorites just keep on rolling. A fourth-quarter Saints flurry to erase a 21-point deficit over the Dolphins guaranteed that the NFL would have three undefeated teams (Saints, Broncos, Colts) heading into week eight for the first time in league history. Obviously the Football odds are where they are at for a reason and clearly, we are on unprecedented ground with this trend.

Enough crying. What can we do about this?

Pay close attention to scheduling. Many teams are entering the teeth of their division schedules. Look for value in the underdogs in the tougher divisions (AFC East/North, NFC East) in interdivision games. Division play features more familiarity between coaching schemes, similar pace, and less travel. You can worry less about a jetlagged teams history in mountain-central time or how a southern team will handle sleet and opposing fans’ snowballs once they are playing the majority of their remaining games within their division.

Stay away from heavy road chalk. Everyone is well aware that large road favorites are covering at record pace this season but remember again we are entering division play where double-digit blowouts are rare. The majority of road blowouts this season haven’t happened in traditional matchups, they’ve happened in once every five year matchups such as the Giants-Bucs, Saints-Bills, Jets-Raiders.

Create a tier-system for teams. Teams ranked in the lowest tier (Rams, Bucs, Chiefs, Browns) qualify as candidates to risk large spreads against in the right situation. Mid-tier teams (Dolphins, Titans, Seahawks) who have faced a brutal 1^st half schedules warrant strong consideration if they are getting points against top-tier teams, especially when they’re at home. For the record, I’m willing to wager my lunch money that the Titans finish .500 or better the second half of the season.

Finally, don’t read too much into the chalk trend. Focus on individual matchups and crunch numbers instead. Some weeks you’ll come up with more favorites, others you’ll have a stable of dogs. Either way, make sure you’re picking based on your research rather than blindly following a trend or gut feeling.

I know this season has thrown our chalk loving friends a slow fastball down the middle. We might be even be questioning our own time consuming research and considering abandoning discussion with fellow handicappers in the forums. Resist the urge to switch horses midstream. There’s plenty of football left to be played. Don’t forget every dog has his day. 

It’s the biggest weeknight of the year for football betting as handicapper’s see a lot of great sports picks tonight. There are two early starts on Bowling Green vs. Miami Ohio and Ball State vs. Northern Illinois. Then on ESPN, it’s South Florida and Rutgers, but it’s also the beginning of the NFL Network’s Thursday Night slate.

Week 10 NFL picks commence as Chicago Bears take on the San Francisco 49ers. Sportsbooks have San Francisco a three-point favorite and -115. The total is 43

The home team is an incredible 10-0 straight up in regular season meetings and San Francisco has won six straight in the Bay Area. Isaac Bruce, the 49ers WR who has had a bad ankle most of the year, is questionable with such injury.

Bears S Kevin Payne, who plays in the nickel package is out.

Backup RB Glen Coffee is out. For the Bears S Al Afalava is questionable. As far as bulletin board material, the Bears should have plenty of incentive. TE Vernon Davis promised his 49ers would “destroy” the Bears.  .

It’s part of a great night of football that includes Bowling Green-Miami Ohio, Ball State-Northern Illinois, and South Florida-Rutgers.

The Bears enter with middling 4-4 straight up and against the spread marks including 1-3 on the road in both groupings.

San Francisco is 3-5 straight up and 5-2 to the number. However, the Niners enter on a four-game straight up losing streak.

Now the handicapping preview utilizing the key indicators used by sports handicappers:

Chicago‘s offense has been average at best getting 4.0 yards per rush against teams normally allowing 4.2 and 6.7 yards per pass to squads that normally permit 6.7. On the road, they average a very pedestrian 3.1 yards per rush. Similarity, their defensive numbers are in line with what their opponents normally allow. Chicago allow 4.2 yards per rush to 4.1 and 6.3 yards per pass to 6.4.

However, San Francisco is horrid offensively in the air getting just 5.8 yards per pass to teams that normally allow 6.7, getting just 5.2 yards per play to 5.7.

The Niners are tough on defense allowing 3.4 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.1 and 5.3 yards per play to 5.6.

Against the spread records: Chicago is 8-3 after allowing more than 150 yards rushing last game. They are 0-6 after allowing more than 250 passing yards last game.

San Francisco is 10-21 as a favorite and 2-8 after allowing more than 30 points their last game.

Over/under angles: Chicago has gone over 31-14 to the NFC. San Francisco has gone under seven straight after allowing more than 150 yards rushing last game.  

Top expert pick on this game: No. 1 NFL service in 2009 (including NFLX) with their #1 NFL Game of the Week just so happens to be the first game this week Bears/49ers side and it’s on the MasterLockLine with picks from all four football games for just $16. Click now to purchase sports betting picks from the top sports services or you can get more information and a free sports pick   

Sportsbook odds are predicting a close battle between Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin, who are battling in the point standings, at the Checkers O’Reilly Auto Club 500 on Sunday afternoon, and for good reason: both of these guys are really good at Phoenix International Raceway.

Phoenix Odds – Sunday, November 15, 3:15 PM ET

Jimmie Johnson (+400): The No.48’s lead in the point standings took a big hit when he was wrecked by Sam Hornish Jr. in the second lap of last week’s Texas race, but Phoenix may be the remedy for his ills: Johnson won three straight races here before this year’s spring race, and his 5.4 average is the best among active drivers, which is why many people will put him in their sportsbook sports picks this weekend.

Mark Martin (+400): Who ended Johnson’s run at Phoenix? Martin took the checkered flag from the pole at the spring race for his first Phoenix win in 20 attempts, and his finishing average is second to Johnson, even with eight more races under his belt.

Tony Stewart (+800): The regular-season points leader hasn’t been much of a factor during the Chase, but he hasn’t been awful, either (except for Talladega, which is a crapshoot anyway). In fact, he even won at Kansas. Stewart is third in average finish at Phoenix, but his lone win here came in the 1999 spring race, which may put some sportsbook players off.

Kurt Busch (+900): Last week’s winner at Texas, Busch is another driver that has been decent besides Talladega, and he won the 2005 spring race at Phoenix. As far as a guy with a lame-duck crew chief goes, Busch is doing pretty well.

Kyle Busch (+1200): You want excitement for the weekend? Pacquiao vs Cotto odds on Saturday night, and then watch the younger Busch drive a car around Phoenix, or anywhere, for that matter. Busch came up two laps short of being the first driver to win all three NASCAR races in a weekend, before he ran out of gas and gave his older brother the win.

Betting picks: All eyes will be on Martin and Johnson, but Kyle Busch will win for the second time at Phoenix (the first was the 2005 fall race).

What a night for bettors, perhaps the best weeknight of the year. In the NFL it’s the Bears vs. 49ers on the NFL Network. ESPN has South Florida vs. Rutgers, ESPNU Ball State vs. Northern Illinois and an additional contest has Bowling Green facing off against Miami Ohio.

Surely any of the above is more compelling than the Brooke Hundley interview. Here is the objective of the monks of sports betting and their picks.

We will start out with the best ever, GodsTips led by America’s only living Grandmaster sports handicapper Joe Duffy, the modern day Jimmy the Greek, but better, much better.

It’s not disputed by anyone on the inside of the betting profession—GodsTips is the all-time winningest sports service. The South Florida-Rutgers game is the Thursday Night ESPN Game of the Year. Also the Bears-49ers is a Major play. Get both sides up now.

The morning report has added the first college basketball Wise Guy of many winners this year Click now to purchase

Based on one-unit per play, it is likely that the power of 620 sports services behind every selection, the MasterLockLine will go over the 100 unit mark for the year. When the MasterLockLine finishes 100 units on the plus side, it will be the fourth time in five years and the eight straight year of making at least 63 units.

Tonight’s menu:

Hottest Handicapper

The Coach Potato is the premier television handicapper in the world.  In 1988 after having success as a handicapper, investing 70-plus hours per week, he opted to streamline and concentrate on only national TV games.  His efficiency has paid off hitting at least 58 % in college and pro football and basketball. All plays are rated equally. He’s nailed 14-of-17 picks. Ball State/Northern Illinois side

Game of the Day

Leo Getz is the premier Big East handicapper in football and basketball as well as the top A-10 hoop analyst. NCAAF Game of the Month on South Florida/Rutgers

No. 1 NFL service in 2009 (including NFLX) with their #1 NFL Game of the Week just so happens to be the first game this week Bears/49ers side

Biggest Play

Service out of Chicago is No. 1 since 1992 in all sports combined. Their highest rated plays are Prime Plays. The Prime Play NFL Total of the Year on Chicago/San Francisco

Bill Tanner is 6-0 the last two days. You know it’s legit because you got EVERY ONE OF THEM. Bowling Green/Miami Ohio in NCAAF, James Madison/Ohio State in NCAAF, and Cleveland/Miami over/under in basketball

Superstar Stevie Vincent sweeps the board yet again last night led by the first Perfect Play of the basketball season on Phoenix over. He also nails Utah over and college basketball is off to a flying star with California easy.  The founder of forensic sports handicapping is now on a 32-16 blitz.

Inner Circle Club over/under plays in college sports are better than gold. The Great One Stevie Vincent is 11-2 with Inner Circle collegiate totals as mastering over/under is his domain. Stevie has a Level 4 or higher on each of the three collegiate games including this rare Inner Circle over/under.

UNIVERSAL PASS: Get total access to the “Bet It Trinity”: Stevie Vincent’s BetonSports360, and the MasterLockLine, and Joe Duffy’s GodsTips for just $64 per pick and even less for long-term pick packs.  Click now to purchase

In the days before the Internet, any and all handicappers worth their weight in winnings were on scorephones. There was a burden of proof to appear before the World Wide Web allowed anyone with a computer to present herself as a betting expert.

Simply put, every tout, tip sheet, and sports handicapper applied, but only the best of the best made the cut—less than one-percent of all sports services.

OffshoreInsiders.com pulled out all the stops to assure the top two scorephone handicappers ever, based on money won, would be part of The Show for sports handicapping.  Joe Duffy, America’s only living Grandmaster Handicapper and Matt Rivers are true handicapping legends and their personal bets are exclusively on OffshoreInsiders.com

From Matt Rivers: I have had12 of 15 winning days. I am a perfect 8-0 over the last five days on the gridiron for 725,000* of profit. I’ve given you 5 straight 75,000* winners and about to be number 6.

Tonight it’s Bowling Green-Miami Ohio as 75,000 star winning six in a row plus 50,000* Chicago-San Francisco. Editor’s note: Matt Rivers is the top ranked college football handicapper on any website. Click now to purchase

Not even Larry King can see the Carrie Prejean sextape video free, but there are many free picks for Thursday’s action as well as week 10 NFL football picks. No NACHA payments needed for the free winners. Check out the archives from past days and betting information abounds gratis.

Today in the Daily Sports Roundup: The Cavaliers take on the Heat, the Lakers try to knock off the Suns, and the Bears and Niners meet on the field in San Fran.

Betting headlines….

Three freshmen at Tennessee will have a rocky top road ahead of them. Janzen Jackson, Mike Edwards, and Nu’Keese Richardson have been accused of trying to rob three men outside of a convenience store. They are part of the prized recruiting class of Tennessee Volunteers head coach Lane Kiffin. Jackson is sixth on the team in tackles.

Sports bettors did pretty well betting the entertainment and political betting odds on the CMA Awards 2009 winners dominated by Taylor Swift, finally toppling American Idol winner Carrie Underwood. Currently Dancing With the Stars odds are the big attraction.

The National Football League begins its Thursday games this week with Chicago at San Francisco. The Bears (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) were blasted 41-21 at home by the Cardinals on the weekend, despite Jay Cutler throwing three touchdown passes to Greg Olsen. The Niners (3-5 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-27 home loss to the Titans in their last contest. Oddsmakers have San Francisco pegged as the 3-point home favorite for Thursday, with the game’s total at 43.5.

As well, there are three college football games on Thursday, with Ball State at Northern Illinois, Bowling Green at Miami (Ohio), and No. 23 South Florida at Rutgers. The ranked Bulls (6-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) got past West Virginia 30-19 last time out, with B.J. Daniels throwing for 232 yards and three scores in the victory. The Scarlet Knights (6-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) slipped past Connecticut 28-24 in their most recent game. South Florida has been listed as a 1-point fave for Thursday.

Superstar Stevie Vincent sweeps the board yet again last night led by the first Perfect Play of the basketball season on Phoenix over. He also nails Utah over and college basketball is off to a flying star with California easy.

Inner Circle Club over/under plays in college sports are better than gold. The Great One Stevie Vincent is 11-2 with Inner Circle collegiate totals as mastering over/under is his domain. Stevie has a Level 4 or higher on each of the three collegiate games including this rare Inner Circle over/under. Click now to purchase

Tipping off on the hardwood . . .

The NBA offers up a pair of marquee matchups on Thursday, with Cleveland at Miami and Phoenix at the Lakers. Kobe Bryant and company will be well rested for their matchup with their division rival – they last played on Sunday against the Hornets, picking up a 104-88 home win. Bryant led the way with 28 points for the Lakers in that contest, while D.J. Mbenga picked up 10 points and 12 rebounds. Andrew Bynum (elbow) and Pau Gasol (hamstring) both sat out Sunday’s game.

There are also a couple of college hoops games on Thursday night, with Georgia State at N.C. State and James Madison at Ohio State. The No. 16 Buckeyes opened their season with an easy 100-60 win over Alcorn State on Monday night. Evan Turner turned in a triple-double for Ohio State, recording a line of 14-17-10.

Taking a trip around the rink . . .

Finally, the NHL has nine games on tap for Thursday, with Florida at Boston, Ottawa at Philadelphia, Vancouver at Detroit, New Jersey at Pittsburgh, Minnesota at Tampa Bay, Nashville at St. Louis, Montreal at Phoenix, Dallas at San Jose, and Atlanta at the Rangers. New York fell to 10-7-1 on Saturday with a 3-1 loss to the Flames. The Rangers were also bitten by the injury bug in that contest, with Brandon Dubinsky (wrist) and Chris Drury (head) both leaving the game. Dubinsky is out for at least a month, while Drury is considered day-to-day.

Most of today’s news is not surprising. Mary Weiland tells us rockers use drugs, the balloon boy’s parents plead guilty, Carrie Prejean won’t be Larry King’s 32^nd wife, and the CMA 2009 Awards were dominated by Taylor Swift, who won’t be Kayne West’s wife.

Luckily sports can be almost as predictable with expert advice from professional sports handicappers.

Super handicapper Matt Rivers has a comp play for Thursday: South Florida plus the two points at BetUs Sportsbook  
 
Backing the Bulls here on the road is not the lock of my life or a total steal because pretty much in order to cover they have to win the game and that is not going to be easy.

Rutgers at home at night under Greg Schiano in the past has had some success “chopping wood” but the Scarlet Knights are still a very young team and in this similar situation this season have failed these tests. Both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh came into New Jersey and took care of business and I can see Jim Leavitt’s boys do the same here.
 
Matt Grothe is obviously still but this kid BJ Daniels as is athletic as they come and will make some plays tonight for sure. The quarterback was thrown into the fire in that first game at Florida State leading South Florida to the huge upset and he helped do the same a few weeks back on national TV against West Virginia as the slight home dog. I have no problems with Daniels at all in this spot. Sure he may make a mistake trying to do too much but he can also dazzle in ridiculous fashion a play later.
 
You know that USF will bring the defensive pressure as they have two absolute beasts who will be getting after Tom Savage. Both George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul should be playing on Sundays in the near future and will wreak some havoc as they always seem to do.
 
I like Joe Martinez, Tim Brown and Mohammad Sanu and also think that Schiano has done another quality coaching job in helping his team improve from the beginning of the season as we just saw in the outright at Connecticut but my money here is on the better and more experienced Bulls.
 
The home field advantage is a huge factor but I don’t see it being enough tonight.

For more information: I have had12 of 15 winning days. I am a perfect 8-0 over the last five days on the gridiron for 725,000* of profit. I’ve given you 5 straight 75,000* winners and about to be number 6.

Tonight it’s Bowling Green-Miami Ohio as 75,000 star winning six in a row plus 50,000* Chicago-San Francisco. Editor’s note: Matt Rivers is the top ranked college football handicapper on any website. Click now to purchase