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Major
BALTIMORE -2.5 Pittsburgh
Steelers defense allowed 6.1 yards per carry and did much of their damage after losing starting running back Ben Tate to a knee injury. They are a young defense and will improve, but the last thing that defense needs is a short week to make adjustments.
Bernard Pierce off horrible game for Ravens, but he should benefit from cut blocking schemes and we look for him to bounce back. We have talked so many times that there are errors that are difficult to correct and there are others that are very correctable. The Ravens combined for seven dropped passes. Steve Smith, Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith all had the ball bounce off their hands in key situations. These are good receivers, so we can write their sloppy effort off to an aberration. Dennis Pitta had 10 catches and his return to the line-up this season is huge.
Ravens CB Ladarius Webb is questionable but he did practice, so they should get a key component back. Steelers waned down stretch against Cleveland and that does not bode well versus a Ravens team in back-to-back home games.
Oh and those who have been with us for decades, and thank you as it has been many, know that teams tend to rally around adversity. You may have read but Baltimore had their share this week. History says this is a rallying cry, not a distraction.
Sunday
NFL
Wise Guy
Seattle-San Diego OVER 44.5
Seattle is more aggressive under a more wide-open game plan under Darrell Beavell. Keep in mind, Beavell is considered high on the lists of coaches in waiting and padding offensive numbers is a great way to rise to the top of every wish list at the end of the year.
Road favorites 3.5 or more off win of 14 or more playing team off MNF has gone over at 10-2 rate since 1978. True 10-2 is not statistically overwhelming but 83.3 percent all-time is. This is not a hand-picked recent short-term streak.
Seattle minus starting nickel back Jeremy Lane and cornerback Tharold Simon. They had to take Marcus Burley and Josh Thomas off scrap heap. True it did not look so much opening night but so many people who watch game films, meaning ex-players and coaches talking heads, guys with famous last names at NFL Films, etc believe the DBs of Seattle will be the most negatively affected by enforcement of the new rules
Philip Rivers is a predictably unpredictable guy, meaning he has made a career of rebounding from sub-par efforts, so his middling effort last week bodes well for this week. He had just 21 completions in 36 attempts for 238 yards, one touchdown and one interception, and he had just 80 yards in 20 attempts in the first half.
He does that often, but he is still starting because he follows it up with splendid games.
BUFFALO -1 Miami
Miami upset New England wearing dark jersey in extreme heat in game we tweeted sources from field said Tom Brady has a noticeable limp. So it was a very good spot for them. Much more used to the blistering heat than New England, that paid off. Now they get temperatures in the 60s and they do the traveling.
Miami has five new starters on OL so tough to expect great back-to-back efforts.
Miami rookie linebacker Chris McCain blocked punt and sack in opening game but missed practices this week and may not play. Miami played the entire second half last weekend without its three starting linebackers. Darnell Ellerbe out for year. The other two are questionable. The Bills are 3-1 against the Dolphins since Philbin took over in 2012.
One reason the bills have been successful against Miami is due to Buffalo rushing attack led by tailbacks CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. The bills certainly will test the Miami run defense and linebackers again on Sunday.
CHICAGO +7 San Francisco
Sunday Night NFC Interdivisional Game of the Year
Last week Jay Cutler does what Jay Cutler does. He handed away a game at home to an inferior foe. Now is the perfect situation. He is getting points to a superior foe off a horrible effort and there is where he shines time and time again.
Newbies, we call it predictably unpredictable and that is how Cutler rolls. Absolutely it is a concern that Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are questionable. That is what gives us such a nice number.
Keep in mind that San Francisco is ravaged by injuries in the secondary themselves. Starting corners Tramaine Brock and Chris Culliver are injured, as well as nickelback Jimmie Ward.
CAROLINA -2.5 Detroit
Matt Stafford is another high on the list of being predictably unpredictable. Off an impressive rout of the Giants, he will flop here.
Cam Newton probable to make his return. All signs and sources say he is refocused and matured.
Add to that he may have a chip on his shoulder that they won without him. Detroit right tackle Corey Hilliard out for year. They also placed cornerback bill bentley on injured reserve.
Right tackle Laadrian Waddle left the game with a calf injury and did not return, and his replacement. Panthers rookie wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin is one of the newest stud with six receptions. Carolina let Tampa back into game last week and it was not as close as the score indicated.
Major
WASHINGTON -6 Jacksonville
This is a sharp versus square, which is when our Vegas, offshore, and outlaw contacts tell us the majority of sharp money is betting one team, the square money the other. We go with the smart money as contrarian betting is used by many professional gamblers.
SEATTLE -5 San Diego
It is an outsourced pick, previous called a competitor consensus, but renamed to more accurately reflect the parameters. If we have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources we respect has a big pick on a certain side or if we are neutral on a pick, but at least two elite sources or contacts have a bet sans any conflicting bets from said sources, it is a bet for us as an outsourced pick.
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Joe Duffy was honored to be a guest on Inside the Huddle on CTV previewing the upcoming NFL season
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We have the first two of many college football winners up for 2014-15. You will always see the hard work Joe Duffy’s Picks puts into every bet and why many clients have been with us for decades since our scorephone debut in 1988. We just released an all-sports package through the Super Bowl. Be among dozen of pro and soon-to-be pro gamblers who will pound on this pick pack! All intel is revealed in the analysis. We have very sharp reasoning behind two college bets. Bet on the same side as the pros. Get the picks now
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This is the quality clients of Joe Duffy’s Picks get every day at OffshoreInsiders.com. Many have gotten these great picks for decades going back to our start on the scorephones more than 26 years ago. As Joe Duffy explains in the video, there are reasons the gap has widened between the sharps and the oddsmakers to levels not seen since last century.
Joe Duffy’s Picks is now 37-23 overall with 23 underdog winners. Yes as many underdog winners as losers of any kind the last 60 bets.
MLB
Wise Guy
TAMPA (ODORIZZI -110) NY Yankees (Vuno)
Tampa is 6-1 the last seven (+5.4 units). New York is 2-8 the last 10. In their last five games Tampa has a slugging percentage edge of .513 to .365. Last 10 it is .445 to .369. The OBP edge is a considerable .060.
NY is 1-6 with Nuno at home. Tampa is 7-1 at Yankee Stadium. In his last four starts, Jake Odorizzi has a 1.44 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Nuno has a horrid 7.20 in his last three trips to the bump.
SEATTLE (YOUNG -112) Houston (Peacock)
When a team has their odds at +/- 125 and an AL squad averaging 4.7 or fewer runs per game after allowing eight or more runs they are a go-against at 740-564 (+119.4 units).
Seattle has a sweet .285 batting average their last seven games. Last five games Seattle has a slugging percentage of .469 to .391 for Houston, but an even more mind-blowing .486 to .337 last 10.
Seattle is 9-2 overall and 20-8 the last 28 road contests. Astros are 110-224 in their last 334 overall. Seattle is 4-0 in Houston.
Major
OAKLAND (CHAVEZ -105) Detroit (Verlander)
The top fade in all of MLB the last two years combined has been Justin Verlander. Detroit with him is 10-22 (-27 units) the last two years to AL team with a batting average of .260 or less. He is a laughable -20.8 units at home the last two seasons. Oakland is 21-3 in triple revenge the last two seasons for +21 units.
CLEVELAND (BAUER +138) LA Dodgers (Ryu)
Go against a starting pitcher who allows .5 or fewer homeruns per start after a game in which the bullpen gave up four or more runs us 948-851 +109.7 units. LA is 3-8 with Ryu when he is off four days rest. Road team is 10-5 when Ryu starts. Look at these splits. His road ERA is 1.62, but he is pitching at home where it is 5.03. While his road OBP against is .256, he is home where it is a sky high .333.
CUBS (WOOD +148) Boston (Workman)
It is an outsourced pick, previous called a competitor consensus, but renamed to more accurately reflect the parameters. If we have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources we respect has a big pick on a certain side or if we are neutral on a pick, but at least two elite sources or contacts have a bet sans any conflicting bets from said sources, it is a bet for us as an outsourced pick.
Promises Made, Promised Delivered as Pro Bettors Roll Along
Promise made: The Weekday Afternoon Dandy Dog AL Game of the Year is among four, yes four day winning picks. It is the best weekday afternoon day portfolio of 2014.
Promise delivered 3-1 including that Weekday Afternoon Dandy Dog AL Game of the Year on Toronto +150, Miami +135, and Washington on the run line getting back a small vig. Here is what pro gamblers got again today at OffshoreInsiders.com
MLB
Wise Guy
TORONTO (HAPP +150) Detroit (Verlander)
Weekday Afternoon Dandy Dog AL Game of the Year
Toronto has won four straight and 18-of-22 and 23-of-30. Detroit has lost four straight and 12-of-16. There is something about fading a large favorite that has lost as many in a row as their opponent has in their last 22 that appeals to me. In fact, Toronto has won nine straight as an underdog and are 10-1 their last 11 road games.
Detroit has failed in six straight as a favorite. Last five games Toronto has a slugging percentage edge of .465 to .329. In their last 10 games it is .497 to .344.
Of course Detroit has a big pitching edge, hence the great value. However, recent form says otherwise. Toronto has won 3-of-4 with A.J. Happ. They have won both of his road starts as his day and road splits are much better than home and night.
In his last four games Justin Verlander has a 6.84 ERA and he has been lit up for three additional unearned runs. His WHIP is 1.72 in his last four. The road team is 6-1 in his last seven starts. His day ERA is 4.06 in six starts.
Major
OAKLAND (POMERANZ +152) NY Yankees (Tanaka)
Oakland has won five straight all by three runs or more. New York has lost four in a row getting outscored 29-10. Oakland is 20-10 on the road +9.2 units while the Yanks are -8.6 at home.
Last five games Oakland has a slugging percentage of .538 to just .325 to New York. In their last 10 games it is .490 to .315. Athletics are 24-6 in their last 30 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 42-20 road versus an opponent with a losing home record. Oakland has won six straight in the series.
Drew Pomeranz ERA and WHIP of 2.37 and 1.184 including 2.59 and 1.151 in five starts in which Oakland is 4-1. Masahiro Tanaka is tough to argue against, so it is not a Wise Guy play, but what great value at this price.
MIAMI (TURNER +135) Tampa (Odorizzi)
Tampa has lost nine straight and 20-of-28 and 9-23 with a total of 7-8.5. Miami has won three straight. Once a road fade, they have won 5-of-6 on the highway and although Tampa is a bit north of Miami, they will same climate that perhaps contributed to the Marlins great home mark. Tampa is 2-8 the last 10 with Odorizzi (-7.6 units) and 0-6 with him following a team loss.
Jacob Turner has an OBP against of .091 less on the road. He is also better in days games. Miami has won nine straight interleague games as an underdog. Tampa is 0-8 in IL games to teams with a winning record.
WASHINGTON (FISTER -1.5 +115) Philadelphia (Kendrick)
This is a runline winner. Philadelphia has failed in five straight to runline, all by 2.5 or more. They have been outscored 24-6 their last three games.
Washington has won 4-of-5 to runline all wins by 2.5 or more and the one loss by .5. In five starts Doug Fister ERA and WHIP of 3.34 and 1.079. At home it is 2.77 and 0.923.
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NBA
Major
MIAMI -6.5 Indiana
The Heat have the momentum back erasing a 15-point lead. It is almost never that the best team in the league is undervalued, but that is the case here. Dwyane Wade is back on top of his game.
Indiana is a dichotomous spread and straight up team. This means if a team is consistently winning outright but failing to cover or losing outright and covering, we ride the spread streak. This has proven to be a way to isolate over and undervalued teams.
Despite the best straight up record in the East at 65-33, they are on an 18-39 spread skid.
MLB
Wise Guy
TEXAS (TEPESCH -110) Minnesota (Correia)
Texas is 4-1 the last five. Minnesota has lost four straight scoring six total runs. Their last seven games Texas batting average and OBP of .311 and .373. Texas is .184 and .240. The last five games Texas has a slugging percentage of .543 to .288 for the Twins.
Rangers are 36-16 in their last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Twins are 2-14 in Correias last 16 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. They are 2-9 at home with him.
Kevin Correia in his last five starts has an ERA and WHIP of 7.61 and 1.73.
Major
PITTSBURGH (CUMPTON -110) Mets (Degrom)
This is a competitor consensus. If we have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources we respect has a big pick on a certain side, we pass along as a competitor consensus.