Joe Duffy with a big day and some free picks. JDP with four winning NBA including a Wise Guy side. Still like those coin flips on three and four-letter network websites from aspiring writers who know nada about handicapping? Welcome back to winners from a 31-year professional. It’s all I’ve done my adult life. Your degenerate handicapper wins. Get the picks now
Jazz at Hawks
Teams that have lost at least 16-of-18 SU and getting 6 or more points decent 411-363-17 (Atlanta)
Teams that lost 16-of-18 versus an opponent won at least three straight are 100-75-4 (Atlanta)
John Collins serving suspension for Hawks
17 points per game, 8.8 rebounds per game
Jazz G Mike Conley it out after re-injuring hamstring
Anthony Davis missed Tuesday, but should play tonight
27.4 points per game, 9.3 rebounds per game
Two teams with winning percentages .850 or over goes UNDER 74-59
Kyle Kuzma out for Lake Show
11.1 points per game, 3.4 rebounds
Thursday’s game between the Lakers and Bucks is the second-ever in a full NBA season to pit two teams with four or fewer losses on Dec. 19 or later.
No pick
Nets at Spurs
Nets Nwaba is probable with sprained right ankle
This month averaging 8.9 points per game, 2.6 rebounds in 16.6 minutes
Jarrett Allen on fire for Nets. Over the last 17 games, Allen is averaging 14.5 points on 68.8 percent shooting, plus 11.7 rebounds per game. He’s risen to second in the NBA with a 65.5 percent field goal percentage
Nets 11-5 record dating back to Nov. 15, the Nets are second in the NBA over that stretch in opponent field goal percentage (41.9) and opponent effective field goal percentage (48.5). They’re also ninth in defensive rating (105.1) over the same span
LeBron admits 17 years in and 239 playoff games, not overly excited
The pick: Brooklyn Nets +2.5
Rockets at Clippers
Houston’s Eric Gordon remains out
10.9 points per game, 1.9 rebounds
JaMychal Green is out for Clippers
7.4 points per game, 6.6 rebounds
Clippers much better home than on road, but no real edge
Early money on dog, which is rare, but public does love quality dogs
The pick: LA Clippers -5
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We are 3-1 with supplemental rotation playoff picks from Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. Yes, these exploit the same metrics that have made Duffy widely accepted as the industry standard and top sports handicapper in history.
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 834-507. A somewhat similar angle is 43-19 though obviously with much tighter parameters.
Fading home teams off bad offensive efforts is 256-167-14. Fading teams off great defensive efforts is 134-93-2. Shockingly, this is the first time in history these systems combine in the same game.
I am 69-40 with all football picks! Wise Guy and Major in college football for Friday. Saturday, what a windfall! Pre-Christmas Game and Total of the Year both go among six bowl winners. Three NFL Saturday led by two Wise Guys. Sunday, a stunning five Wise Guys and four Majors. Monday, another bowl Major. All this from Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com
NFL free picks galore. The premium plays will be coming to OffshoreInsiders.com but already a huge bowl season. First bowl drop! I am 69-40 Wise Guy and Major in college football for Friday. Saturday, what a windfall! Pre-Christmas Game and Total of the Year both go among six bowl winners. Monday, another bowl Major. Get the picks now
Texans (-2.5, 51) at Bucs
Going against bad defenses off a win is 144-86-5 (Houston)
Opened a pick but big line moves because of injury updates
Tampa WR Mike Evans and Chris Godwin doubtful
Evans 67 catches
Godwin 86 catches
Teams that scored 28 or more points in at least six of their last seven (Tampa) are a fade of 79-49 (Houston) and go under 73-54
Houston not officially clinched division but would take a miracle
Small chance J.J. Watt could come back
The pick: Houston
Rams at Niners (-6, 45)
Teams off a loss as large favorite are 101-70 (San Francisco)
Consecutive road games, team off loss is 315-218-11 (Rams)
Late-season regression to the mean angle based on ats margin is 140-96-8 (Rams)
Go against much better running team late in season is 82-50-2 (Rams)
Big dog with defense has spent substantially more time on field is 125-80-3 (Rams)
The pick: LA Rams +6
Ravens (-10) at Browns
Bad spread team to good one is 193-114-13
Browns out of playoffs
Freddie Kitchens likely one and done
Ravens not much to play for and putting reigns on Lamar Jackson makes sense
Already set record
Home double-digit dogs in week 15 or later 28-15, though admittedly 4-5 since 2014 (Browns)
The pick: Cleveland +10
Saints (-2, 51) at Titans SNF
Small home underdogs off loss as a favorite 69-48-8 for 59 percent
The pick: Titans +2
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Bad road teams off a loss that was not a blowout are 251-149. Consecutive road games, team off a loss is 314-217. Road underdogs off a loss in which they covered are 85-50.
Big road favorites despite splits that favor home team is 497-375-21. Rest dynamics generally benefit the home team. However, when the road team is more rested, it nullifies the normal home court advantage and creates an off line to the tune of 371-289-8. When both apply, it is 59-39-2 for 60.2 percent.
Weather NFL
Wind conditions of concern
Game
Wind Speed
Miami Dolphins at New York Giants
17 mph
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers
15 mph
Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Joe Duffy is 34-17 NFL and a draw-dropping 64-36 in football. Wise Guy Navy UNDER the latest! Six NFL Wise Guys, five NFL Majors. Seven basketball added! That is $1.61 a winner! Get the picks now
There is a logical reason, I’m sure, why you would bet without our picks. Could you let me know what it is? I am 63-36 with all football picks and 6-2 last two days NBA including Game of the Year on Bucks in a rout. Army-Navy total Wise Guy and three NBA led by Wise Guy. Get the picks nowMore winners probable once all NBA lines released
NBA
WASHINGTON -1 Memphis
Rest dynamics generally benefit the home team. However, when the road team is more rested, it nullifies the normal home court advantage and creates an off line to the tune of 242-177-9.
Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.
5 Dimes is the top sportsbook for added rotation games in both college football and college basketball. 5 Dimes is also the home of the highest betting limits.
CFB
Major
Illinois State-North Dakota State UNDER 41
Low total despite at least one team of 4f consecutive high-scoring games on offense goes under 148-97-3.
ILLINOIS STATE +23.5 North Dakota State
Big underdogs in games that are supposed to be low-scoring are 65-40-6. In fact, when getting at least 23 points, it is 24-9.
Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy sweeps the board with Dallas and Cleveland. The latter a double-digit dog winning by eight. Eight winning NBA selections led by two Wise Guys. Most importantly, it includes NBA Game of the Year. Promises made, promises delivered. Get the picks now
FCS Quarterfinals winning picks using the same metrics that have Joe Duffy domination regular rotation games.
Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.
CFB
Wise Guy
Northern Iowa-James Madison UNDER 45 at 5 Dimes the place for added rotation games
At least one high scoring team but fairly low total and either or both have a total much less than previous game goes under 507-333-20. Postseason when one team scoring team in a game not expected to be mega high scoring, it goes under 42-19. A subsystem of famed math angle goes under 81-33-5.
Major
JAMES MADISON -20 to Northern Iowa at Bet Now another great shop for added rotation football and basketball.
Short week momentum angle is 52-17.
Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy sweeps the board with Dallas and Cleveland. The latter a double-digit dog winning by eight. Eight winning NBA selections led by two Wise Guys. Most importantly, it includes NBA Game of the Year. Promises made, promises delivered. Get the picks now
Consecutive road games, team off a loss 334-241-11 (Seattle)
Big turnover table, go with worse turnover team is 538-407-30 (Carolina)
Anti-splits angle about fading road teams who have been better on road than home team has been at home is 141-104-11 (Carolina)
Seattle 6-1 SU road, 4-2 SU home
West coast teams playing at 1 PM is 180-141-6
119-82-4 in week 7 or later
The pick: Seattle -6
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Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Joe Duffy is 34-17 NFL, 63-36 with all football. Army-Navy Wise Guy. Six NFL Wise Guys, five NFL Majors at OffshoreInsiders.com
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 833-507-35. Teams off dominant rushing effort goes under 462-285-23. When both apply, it goes under 209-100-8.
Four NFL free picks from superstar handicapper Joe Duffy. I am 34-17 NFL and 63-36 in football! Follow my premium picks on OffshoreInsiders.com
Jets at Ravens (-14.5, 45)
Going with very bad underdog based on sweat barometer is 296-207-8 (Jets)
At least a 118-point difference for season on ats margin, go with worse team is 139-95-9 as Ravens league best 11-2 by +10.2 points per game (Jets)
Better team in short week unless they had substantially more snaps is 82-34 (Ravens)
Go with teams with at 90 fewer snaps on the season is 208-159-10 (Jets)
Jets final three games Ravens, Steelers, Bills
The pick: Jets +14.5
Pats (-10, 40.5) at Bengals
Anti-splits angle about fading road teams who have been better on road than home team has been at home is 141-104-11 (Cincinnati)
Much worse run defense late in season is 59-31-3 (Cincinnati)
Home underdogs of 9.5 in week 15 or later are 32-19 (Cincinnati)
Bengals franchise WR A.J. Green considered day-to-day
The picks: Cincinnati +10
Rams at Cowboys (-3, 47)
Surprise stat: Dallas +64 point margin on year but under .500…
Going against teams with better points per game margin than record is 78-52-3 (Rams)
Favorites with +15 or more edge for season in points margin, yet two fewer wins are 22-15-1 (Dallas)
The pick: Rams +3
Vikings (-3, 45) at Chargers
Worse turnover team is 538-407-30 (Chargers)
Vikings WR Adam Thielen is probable after missing six of last seven games
Minnesota averaging 24.5 points per game without him
Fading home underdogs off win of 21 or more is 16-6 since 2012 (Vikings)
The pick: LA Chargers +3
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