OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers Saturday is on the NY Yankees (+120) Seattle.

Reasoning: Felix Hernandez is the reigning Cy Young award winner and a guy who can be lights out a lot of the time. Certainly King Felix is better than Ivan Nova and the Mariners have been playing better ball than most thought they were capable of unlike the Yankees who continue to be very mediocre for the Yankees. But all in all the New Yorkers are the far superior lineup and I don’t mind Nova as the guy is pretty good. He is not Felix Hernandez good but against the punch and judy Mariners I can see Nova match the Cat goose egg for goose egg.

Arod, Teixeira, Cano, Swisher, Jeter and the rest of the Pinstripers plus money is never a bad play. These guys are powerful and potentially great in any situation so to get some coin back against Ichiro and the well inferior Mariners is a total must play in the end, even if they have a superstar on the bump.

Hernandez hardly ever allows more than a few runs in any start and he may be very good once again here but it’s still the 90 plus win Yankees with a decent enough pitcher against a Seattle team that is a 70-75 win club. Therefore Felix Hernandez or no Felix Hernandez I’ll back the far better visitors at this price and take my chances.

Top expert pick on this game: NY Yankees

For more information: Yup, that’s right. I nailed a 500,000* bomb on the Red Sox last night to begin the weekend and watched Tim Wakefield and the boys from Beantown come through in flying colors. I’ve now cashed that ticket in 12 of the last 18 days and 52 of the last 83 for a profit of a cool 6.9 million stars. There is no better nor more consistent handicapper known to man and nothing at all changes today.

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OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a winning free pick Wednesday is on the Tampa Bay Rays (+120) to Detroit.

Reasoning: I’ll take Tampa Bay in this spot plus anything as I just do not respect Jim Leyland’s Tigers, no how no way. Detroit did come back to win last night but I’m just not really buying into them.

Brad Penny was really good for a little while but the right-hander came back down to Earth in that beatdown in Pittsburgh last time out and I can see him continue to plummet a bit today and continue on a downward trend. I don’t love the Rays offense at all as it’s Evan Longoria and a lot of mediocrity but the Tigers are just overall very mediocre themselves if not for Miggy and they start a guy that in my opinion is ready to go through a lean period.

Andy Sonnanstine has sort of been the forgotten man in Tampa as he was a key cog in the World Series season a few years back. After that Sonnanstine has been pretty much relegated to the bullpen. Well now he’s back and if he pitches well may stay in the rotation. I’m not calling the guy an elite hurler or anything like that but he is alright and overall Joe Maddon’s club is better and more well balanced than Detroit, I don’t care about last night or the similar records.

The bottom line is that this is at worst a 50-50 game, even in Comerica, and to get anything back with the Rays is the right side, period.

Top expert pick on this game: It’s now 11 of 15 winning days and 51 of the last 80 for a profit of 7.5 million*. No doubt I got lucky on the Heat but let’s not forget how I had the late lead blown and was very unlucky with the big dog Tampa Bay Rays. So all in all just another deserving winning day as I continue to smack around that crookie.

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OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a baseball pick Tuesday on the Toronto Blue Jays (+159) to the NY Yankees.

Reasoning: CC Sabathia certainly can be lights out but Ricky Romero is no slouch and the Jays have a guy in Jose Bautista who is beyond great right now. Bautista obviously had the insane season last year bombing away and thinking he would repeat that was fairly silly. But as of right now there’s no reason, barring injury, to think otherwise. The guy is a superstar and a righty bat that can get to Sabathia as can Escobar, Hill and a few other quality enough Toronto hitters.

The Yankees are still the superior team with the better pitcher going today and obviously can win this game. Arod, Teixeira, Cano, Swisher and the Bombers have a huge upside despite the mediocre last month or so and will go farther than the Jays after 162 regular season games. But Toronto has been very solid, led by Bautista, and after flexing their muscles last night I’m just fine with grabbing this quality takeback with a very good pitcher in Romero and a potentially potent offense.

Top expert pick on this game: Toronto

For more information: That’s right, a perfect 2-0 sweep on Monday including the 500,000* bomb on the Cardinals plus a 200,000* on the Mavericks outright. Wow what a sick, sick comeback that was, insane! It’s now 10 of 14 winning days and 50 of the last 79 for a profit of 7.4 million*. Just try and let those numbers sink in and realize there is just no better handicapper on this planet, period.

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OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has free pick for Monday and it is on the Cincinnati Reds (+156) to Philadelphia.

Reasoning: Certainly Cincinnati had a rough last series at Cleveland against the surging Indians and to be honest with you the Reds aren’t all that good right now. But with that said I am going to continue to fade the Phillies as Charlie Manual’s offense is the worst in baseball at this time. Yes I said it, the worst in baseball. Without Shane Victorino the Fightin’ Phils have absolutely no fight, none as in zero, nyet, nil. This team is hard pressed to get a hit no less score a run. Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Raul Ibanez, Placido Polanco and the rest of Charlie Manual’s club is in a collective offensive tailspin and that’s being ultra kind.

The Phils were shut out yesterday and have now averaged about a run and a half in the last 9 games, literally. Sure Cole Hamels can be total money and well superior to Bronson Arroyo but the way the Phils have performed with the lumber I will continue to be more than fine with going against them at an exorbitant price like this.

Joey Votto and the Reds are mediocre at best right now and not very trustworthy. But the bottom line is to get such a handsome price back against a team struggling the way Philadelphia is makes me alright with this dog. If Hamels is great, which he could be, and the Phils once again prevail in the neighborhood of 1-0 or 2-1 then so be it. But I don’t see them all of a sudden doing a 180 and busting out with the sticks so in the end I’m just fine backing the defending NL Central champs and fading the offensively challenged NL East champs.

Top expert pick on this game: Yup, the title above says it all. I have isolated and will back a rare cheaper than cheap baseball chalk that will win going away. The price is at least 40-50 cents off and I’m going to expose this with conviction in the highest play that I possess, a 500,000* B-O-M-B Bomb!

Matt has had nine-of-13 winning days and 49 of the last 78 for a profit of plus 6.7 million* after the rare poor Sunday. Two plays today, 500,000* Cheap Chalk Game of the Year plus a bonus 200,000* on the hardwoods between the Mavericks and Thunder. Click now to purchase

OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has another winner to beat the sportsbooks Sunday is on the Texas Rangers (+133) to Philadelphia.

No doubt the Phillies pitching staff shoved it up my butt in the first two games of this series shutting down Ron Washington’s bats but once again this current Philadelphia Phillies offense is fairly non-existent and I can’t help but grab a solid price back today in fading them.

Roy Oswalt is certainly a borderline great pitcher and better than Matt Harrison but the Texas lefthander has been very good for the bulk of this season and should be at least that tonight against the beyond scuffling Phillies. Ryan Howard did go deep yesterday but he is still not the Ryan Howard we have known in years’ past and the rest of the offense is extremely mediocre right now, and that is being kind,  without Chase Utley and Shane Victorino. In fact in the past eight full games they have not been able to eclipse the three run mark once and have averaged less than two runs per game. Certainly with their pitching staff that could be enough and has been enough in the first two games of this series but come on. No team can consistently win with that lack of offense and it’s going to get them at some point and today could be that point.

Texas is certainly not overachieving right now at 23-23 as Josh Hamilton has been a major loss but there are still potent bats in the lineup with Young, Kinsler and Beltre and in the end I’ll go back to this well, even if it has been a tad dry of late.

Look for Harrison to be just fine against Charlie Manual’s poor offense and for the Rangers to avoid the broom and get out of the city of Brotherly Love on a winning note.

Top expert pick on this game: Texas from Matt Rivers

For more information: A quality Sunday and some more jack in my pocket that is what I can promise. Two winners today including one on the hardwood and one on the diamond. Just look above at the numbers, I may not win every single day but I certainly win most days making me love my chances once again today.

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Here is the morning line for the Preakness Stakes. The top four finishers from the best horse racing and sports handicapper of all-time is also up

The Dallas Mavericks are at the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals.  The point spread is Oklahoma City (-3) with a total of 202. The best-of-seven game series is deadlocked at a game apiece.

Dallas enters with a 66-28 straight up mark, 55-37 against the spread going over 54-29. On the road they are 31-15 outright, 30-16 to the sportsbooks going over 27-19. In the postseason, they are 9-3 outright, 11-1 to the number.

Oklahoma City is 64-32 straight up and 50-43 to the number. At home they are 36-12 straight up and 24-22 spread wise. In OKC, they have exceeded the total at a 29-19 rate. In the playoffs, they are 9-5 and 7-6 respectively.

For the year Dallas makes 47.5 percent of their field goals to teams that normally allow 45.9 while allow 45.0 to teams normally getting 45.8.

The Thunder make 46.2 percent from the field to defenses that permit 45.9. They allow 45.4 to teams that usually get 46 percent.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): The Mavericks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5, 12-3 to teams with a winning record.

Oklahoma City 6-1 versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or above, but 3-8 home versus an opponent with a winning road record. Road team is 18-7 in the series.

Over/under trends: Oklahoma City over 8-2 road underdogs.

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OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a free pick winner for Friday is on the Tampa Rays (+137) to Florida.

Anibal Sanchez of late has looked like the guy who threw that no-hitter a few seasons back but with that said the number is still too high.  Florida is all in all not as good as they played over the first six or so weeks. Hanley and the boys flew out of the gate to a well above .500 record but they are just not 24-16 type good, no how no way. Certainly I like Ramirez and the upside of Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison among a few others but the fish are not an elite type squad at this point and will come back down to Earth as we have seen in these last few games.

Tampa Bay meanwhile stunk the first week of the season but has been really good since. Andy Sonnanstine isn’t great but he is good enough to hold his own as we saw a few seasons back in the World Series season when he was actually very good at times. With Evan Longoria back the Rays have been solid and Joe Maddon is once again proving to be a top-notch manager.

If Sanchez twirls another gem tonight which he has done the past few starts then so be it but both of those were against the fairly weak and banged up Nationals and today I expect the right-hander to be in some more jams against the surging Rays.

This game is once again the epitome of how to win betting baseball. It’s not an absolute lock of my life or anything of that nature. In fact after 9 innings we may lose this thing. But Tampa Bay most definitely can win this game and if this situation plays out 1,000 times we will win more than enough to make money against this too high price and that is a value, period.

Top expert pick on this game: Tampa from Matt Rivers

For more information: It’s now eight of 10 winning days and 48 of the past 75 with the profit being 7.6 million stars after the 2-1 winning Thursday. The 200,000* Thunder won outright and the 300,000* Rockies won by a billion in a small winning day but another winning day.

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The free pick Wednesday is on the Cleveland Indians (+105) White Sox.

Reasoning: I am not at all going to call this price a value because going to Chicago with this Cleveland team, no matter what the records say, is not going to be easy. Sure the Indians are playing out of their minds and definitely appear to be the far better team right now but they are still a bit of a little brother in this relationship as the White Sox have been the far superior team for a few years now. With that said though Ozzie Guillen’s boys have been sketchy for the bulk of the season and I just do not trust Jake Peavy at all anymore making me all right with Cleveland.

Justin Masterson was pitching lights out until that last start at home against Tampa. That egg erased seven straight quality starts and I’ll give the tall right-hander a mulligan for that performance and chalk it up to something that will just happen every now and then to every pitcher in the league. The guy has been striking out a ton of batters and just flat out dominating. Peavy used to fit that description but after all of the injuries and time off who the heck really knows what this guy even has anymore. I would say five or six decent innings would be about the ceiling today for the former Padre.

Grady Sizemore is on the shelf again but Santana, Hafner, Choo, Cabrera and the visitors are playing at a ridiculously high level and in a complimentary type play I’ll jump on their bus today against the “good guys”.

Top expert pick on this game: Cleveland

For more information: It’s now seven of eight winning days and 47 of the past 73 with the profit at 8.3 million stars. Just sit back a second and think about those numbers, rather freakin’ gaudy, huh? But once again I am far from content as today is the day that I must get. That is the past and meaningless as far as I am concerned.

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Your free pick winner for Tuesday is on the Minnesota Twins (+170) at Seattle.

Reasoning: I backed Minnesota yesterday in this spot and I’m going to do the exact same thing for pretty much the exact same reason despite getting burned. No matter how bad Ron Gardenhire’s Twinkies have been to start the season and no matter how good Seattle’s starting pitcher Felix Hernandez is tonight the Mariners are still an awful ballclub that can’t be laying such a number to anybody anywhere.

Yes Hernandez is the reigning Cy Young award winner and a guy that can be as filthy as they come but his supporting offense is as weak hitting as there is in baseball and even Ichiro isn’t great anymore. Certainly these guys have the better record than their opponent as today’s visitors continue to implode without Joe Mauer but I’m truly hard pressed to believe that this Twins squad has just completely lost it. Guys like Morneau, Kubel, Young and Span are quality ballplayers including a former MVP and if we get the good Francisco Liriano could get a total steal of a price.

Liriano was not sharp in that last outing but it is somewhat excusable as he hurled that no-hitter in the previous start. The southpaw isn’t the same electric superstar before all of the injuries but he still has a world of upside and in the end I’ll certainly grab the price with the Twins and be just fine with it, win or lose.

Top expert pick on this game: Minnesota

For more information: It’s now six of seven winning days and 46 of the past 72 after the 400,000* bomb on Shaun Marcum and the Brewers took care of business. The net profit is now a whopping 8 million stars as I have once again completely bashed that Crookie upside his head. This year has been so great I can’t even put it into words anymore. With that said I am far from content as today is the most important day of all and one that I will get!

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