Matt Rivers says your Thursday free pick winner is on the San Antonio Spurs -1 at Denver.

Reasoning: At some point Timmy and the boys from San Antonio will come back down to Earth because they are not 20-3 good but in this situation I’m betting that it’s not going to happen today. Winning at Denver with the altitude is always difficult and I faded the Nuggets a few days ago at home against the Magic and it burnt me but I just do not see anything but a solid enough Spurs victory in this thing.

Greg Popovich has his guys firing on all cylinders thus far. Manu Ginobili has been lighting it up and Tony Parker and Tim Duncan are still high quality players that are good enough to take care of business on most nights. Throw in some younger guys as well and a potential Hall of Fame coach and the Spurs are a force to be reckoned with right now. Sure these guys will lose some games and get worn down a bit in due time but with Chauncey Billups out and the whole Carmelo Anthony issue hanging over the team it’s a tall order for these Nuggets to beat the surging and fire hot Spurs.

San Antonio is the consummate professional team that even on a back-to-back after the game in Milwaukee last night should be a bit too good against the banged up Nuggets. Melo and the fellas are well under .500 against the number and that should get worse by one tonight.

The pick: San Antonio -1

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Today’s NBA rest report:

Hawks-Celtics

Boston is playing back-to-back nights

Spurs-Nuggets

San Antonio is playing back-to-back nights

49ers vs. Chargers NFL Las Vegas betting odds are up for NFL picks and predictions.

The bookmaker’s point spread is San Diego -9 with a total of 44.5

OffshoreInsiders.com takes a look at the football betting match-up using key numbers employed by professional gamblers.

In comparing yards per rush on offense, the better numbers belong to San Francisco by .1.

As far as passing yards per completion on the offensive side of the ball, the upper hand is for San Diego by .9.

According to yards per point, the more efficient offense is the Bolts by 2.3.

Defensively the more stingy team based on yards per rush is neither as it’s a dead heat.

The superior defense in terms of passing yards per completion San Diego by .9.

The yards per point statistic used by the best sports handicappers says the superior defense is San Francisco 49ers forcing 1.6 more.

Who to bet on according to the football betting experts against the spread At one unit per bet, ScoresOddsPicks has won you 45.4 units in college and NFL. The latest run is 19-4, but still does not tell the story.

This included Miami Ohio +775 on the moneyline in the MAC Championship, Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship as the Best Bet of the Year, and Oakland December 5 as the Underdog Best Bet of the Year. Thursday Night Playoff Ramifications Best Bet of the Year on the 49ers vs. Chargers. Could this be the latest in a long line of moneyline underdogs that bark? Click now to purchase

Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): San Francisco is 9-2 as underdog, but 3-7 on grass and 5-21 following a straight up win of more than 14 points. They are also 0-8 off spread win.

San Diego is 22-6 as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0, but 2-9 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Over/under trends: San Diego has gone under 8-2 at home versus an opponent with a losing record.

A college football matchup like Ohio and Troy in the New Orleans Bowl isn’t exactly a dream come true but this is the beauty of NCAA football betting. It can turn a game like this one into tons of fun. Let’s break down the relevant info.

Ohio Bobcats (8-4) vs Troy Trojans (7-5)

Saturday, December 18, 9:00 p.m. ET

Favorite: Troy -1.5

Over/Under: 58

Ohio was a fairly safe and easy team for betting sharps to track this year. It beat the spread in seven of its eight victories and failed to cover in three of its four losses, meaning its ATS record of 8-4 matched its straight-up record. In other words, when the Bobcats won, they won decisively.

Ohio enters the New Orleans Bowl as an underdog but that won’t necessarily scare bettors away. The Bobcats are 7-1 ATS over their last eight games as a dog, 5-1 ATS over their last six against teams with winning records and 7-2 ATS over their last nine games overall. Ohio’s betting trends overwhelming favor the OVER. Seven of its last eight games as an underdog have gone over the total, as have five of its last six non-conference games.

Troy is favored to win the New Orleans Bowl at pretty much every sportsbook but it hasn’t fared too well against the spread this season, going just 4-8. The Trojans are 2-7 ATS over their last nine games as a favorite and 1-4-1 ATS over their last six non-conference games. Troy averaged 32.9 points per game this season so it shouldn’t come as a huge surprise that trends also point toward the OVER. Its last four bowl games have gone over the total; the over is also 21-7 in Troy’s last 28 non-conference games.

This matchup is about defense versus offense. Ohio is offensively challenged; it ranked 94^th in the country with just 329.3 total yards per game and fields the nation’s 105^th-ranked passing attack, though it ran the ball pretty well (170.9 yards per game). Defense is much more Ohio’s forte. It fielded the country’s 21^st-best overall unit and its 98.9 rushing yards allowed per game is the nation’s sixth-lowest mark in 2010.

On the flipside, Troy’s 12^th-ranked aerial attack, led by Corey Robinson and his 24 touchdown passes, boosted them up to the 24^th overall offensive rank. So how does a team that scores just less than 33 points per game only go 7-5? Well, the Trojans allow 31 points per contest this season and have the nation’s 94^th-best defense at 419.2 total yards allowed per game.

For more information: There are Golden Rules of bowl betting to follow to ensure that the best bowl picks against the spread are yours this football postseason.

The real Matt Rivers of OffshoreInsiders.com has a NBA betting pick Wednesday is on the Cleveland Cavaliers +16.5.

Do I think that Lebron’s former team has any chance to beat Lebron’s current team? Of course not. This is as lopsided of a game as there might possibly be in the entire NBA. But with that said there is still a little bad blood between these players and after getting absolutely bushwhacked at home a few weeks ago I can see these Cavaliers play one of their better games of the season.

The Cavs have certainly been reeling big time ever since that defeat unlike the Heat who have surged into clear elite status. So in terms of the talent and the hotter team it’s not even a contest as they win hands down. Lebron, D Wade and Bosh will win this game and could do so going away but guys like Mo Williams, Antawn Jamison and Boobie Gibson among a few others would love nothing less than to get a little vengeance at the hands of their former teammate. It’s probably asking too much to actually walk off of the court as the victor but these guys are still professionals that should be properly motivated in this game.

It may be a 15-point Miami lead at the break as that is certainly possible. But in the end I can’t help but grab this gaudy number in this spot and expect the Cavs to perform better tonight in South Beach than they did at Quicken Loans Arena a few weeks back in the King’s return.

The pick: Cleveland

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Now for today’s NBA rest report.

Bulls-Raptors

Toronto is playing back-to-back nights.

Lakers-Pacers

Los Angeles playing their third game in four nights including playing back-to-back nights.

Clippers-76ers

Philadelphia is playing their third game in four nights including playing back-to-back nights.

Rockets-Thunder

Houston is playing is playing back-to-back nights.

Kings-Hornets

Sacramento is playing back-to-back nights, while New Orleans is playing their third game in four nights.

Bobcats-Grizzlies

Charlotte is playing back-to-back nights.

Timberwolves-Suns

Minnesota is playing back-to-back nights.

Blazers-Mavericks

Portland is playing their third game in four nights.

Top expert pick on today’s games: The Power of 620 sports services behind every selection, the MasterLockLine is on an awe-inspiring 20-5 run and 39-13 overall.

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The 2010-11 offseason has been a busy one in Major League Baseball. After a huge free-agent signing yesterday shifted the MLB futures significantly overnight, it’s time to take a look at the current top 10.

1.         Philadelphia Phillies (+160)

After snagging Cliff Lee for five years and $100 million last night, the Phillies vaulted into World Series frontrunner status at virtually every sportsbook. With a rotation of Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, the Phillies could have four guys win 15-20 games. Unbelievable.

2.         New York Yankees (+500)

Unless you count Russell Martin, the Bronx Bombers haven’t joined the big spending party yet, watching their rival Red Sox get stronger. But that doesn’t mean this team still isn’t stacked. With Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Alex Rodriguez part of an aging nucleus, however, bettors may be better off picking a younger, higher-upside team.

3.         Boston Red Sox (+600)

The Phillies are the National League’s big winner but perhaps no team has improved as much as the Boston Red Sox this offseason. Carl Crawford got the biggest headlines but Adrian Gonzalez, one of baseball’s best-kept secrets while in San Diego, is the real key to Boston’s MLB betting hopes.

4.         St. Louis Cardinals (+1500)

The Cardinals are consistently contenders, not because of their depth but because of their talented pillars. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday anchor the offense (with Lance Berkman joining up to fill the Ryan Ludwick role); Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter anchor the pitching staff. Barring injuries, it’s almost impossible not for St. Louis to contend.

5.         San Francisco Giants (+1500)

Where’s the love for the defending champs? It looks like the oddsmakers view 2010 as a fluke. We can at least admit that it’s rare for a team to win the World Series with such a patchwork offense. Then again, pitching wins championships and the Giants still have it in spades.

6.         Detroit Tigers (+2000)

The Tigers sixth after an 81-81 season? Hmm. I know Victor Martinez is a solid addition but giving the Tigers better betting odds than Texas, Cincinnati or Atlanta seems excessive.

7.         Cincinnati Reds (+2000)

Here’s a team that could give you good bang for your buck. The Reds have the reigning National League MVP in Joey Votto, who’s joined by a solid young lineup that plays outstanding defense, If one of the Reds’ young pitchers can step up, look out.

8.         Minnesota Twins (+2000)

It’s a given to put the Twinkies on this list, as they’re competitive every year. Bettors should watch Justin Morneau’s health closely before making their wagers, however; comebacks from concussions are unpredictable.

9.         Texas Rangers (+2000)

Is this the best value pick in the entire top 10? This team reached the World Series and almost all its top players – Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Neftali Feliz and so on – are either in their primes or not even there yet. It hurts that the Rangers couldn’t retain Cliff Lee but maybe they’ll look at converting Feliz to a starter.

10.       Atlanta Braves (+2000)

Like the Giants, the Braves are contenders because of their outstanding pitching. But Atlanta has much greater offensive potential. Jayson Heyward will only get better and the underappreciated, power-hitting second baseman Dan Uggla was a nice offseason grab.

It’s part 3 of the college football bowl betting previews. We take a bettors look at the Independence Bowl, Insight Bowl, Eagle Bank Military Bowl, and Texas Bowl.

We start out with Georgia Tech vs. Air Force in the Independence Bowl.

In comparing yards per rush on offense, the healthier records go to GA Tech by .1.

Insofar as passing yards per completion on the offensive side of the ball, the advantage is for Air Force by .8.

According to yards per point, the not wasteful offense is Air Force by 1.4.

Defensively the more miserly team based on yards per rush is the Ramblin’ Wreck of Georgia Tech by .2.

The more exceptional defense based on the stipulation of passing yards per completion is Air Force.

The yards per point statistic used by the best sports handicappers says the better defense is Air Force by 1.3.

The Falcons have a turnover margin of three better.

Now to the Champs Sports Bowl, North Carolina State vs. West Virginia.

To contrast yards per rush on offense, the pre-eminence from an arithmetical angle goes to WVU by .4.

Passing yards per completion is another yardstick consumed by sports investors. The lead is owned by NC State by .1.

Perhaps the most made use of number by certified gamblers is yards per point. From the offensive examination the better integers are is in the column of NC State by 1.6.

Insofar as the key records on the defensive side of the ball. The yards per rush guide says the healthier run defense is West Virginia by .6.

The better-quality passing yards per completion data on defense give the upper hand to WVU by 2.2.

In terms of yards per point, the transcendent defense is West Virginia by 4.6. Turnovers edge goes to NC State by four.

Now to the preview of the Insight Bowl between Missouri and Iowa.

The leader unit in terms of rushing yards per attempt on offense is Missouri by .7.

In addition on offense, when it comes to yards per reception the information provides the distinction to Missouri by 2.8.

Vegas sharps monetize yards per point. Records says the more nimble team in that categorization is Iowa, but by just .2.

Defensively on yards per rush, the gap points in favor of Iowa by .6.

The more elite team at halting the passing game according to passing yards per completion is the Hawkeyes by .3.

Yards per point determine the tougher defense belongs to Missouri 3.8.

In net turnovers, the incomparability favors Iowa by two.

We culminate this report with the Texas Bowl: Illinois vs. Baylor.

In weigh against one team’s yards per rush on offense against the other, the more advance records favor Baylor by .4.

As far as passing yards per completion on the offensive side of the ball, the digits point towards the Illini by a slender .1.

Employing yards per point, the more effective offense is Illinois by 2.7.

Defensively the most operative lineup based on yards per rush is the Illini by .3.

The upper rated defense based on the provisions of passing yards per completion is Illinois by 1.1.

The yards per point statistic used by the best sports handicappers says the superior defense is Baylor by .1.

Turnover ratio favors Illinois by four.

Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

Cliff Lee’s singing with the Philadelphia Phillies has made his new/old team prohibitive 7/2  baseball betting favorites to win the World Series.

The New York Yankees, left at the alter by Cliff Lee, are 6/1, a notch below their divisional rivals, the Boston Red Sox at 5/1.

Lee’s other brokenhearted would-be brides the Texas Rangers are tied for the No. 4 favorites at 20/1 with the Atlanta Braves and Tampa Rays.  Sportsbook odds from Bodog.

Speaking of odds, tonight’s top NBA picks include a big winner from Matt Rivers for Tuesday is on the Charlotte Bobcats -5 Toronto.

Reasoning: Wow was that an unbelievably pathetic last game at home against Boston. The Bobbies were held to an insanely low 62 points in that 31-point defeat. I am not in the slightest going to try and defend that because you just can’t. But I can tell you that Michael Jordan was on the bench and the owner is not going to stand for that garbage. He will have his players focused today against what is a bad and inferior Toronto squad that should not win many games this entire season anywhere, no less on the road.

Charlotte boasts some talent, they really do. Gerald Wallace, Stephen Jackson and DJ Augustin form a quality trio and the 8-15 record that Charlotte currently has is not truly indicative of what the team is. These guys have a solid upside and a lot of potential but have just gotten off to a poor start. The last game very well may have been rock bottom and after that debacle there is only one way to go.

The Raptors are 9-15 and probably are a 9-15 type of a team. I really do like Andrea Bargnani as that guy is starting to become a total star but the cupboard is fairly bare after losing Chris Bosh to the Heat. Toronto is a porous 3-9 outside of Canada and should be getting more tonight against a team that is much better than them.

I expect Charlotte to come out with some passion and energy after that last beat down against the Celtics and against a bad team on their home floor should result in an easy victory. This is a cheap bargain basement type of a number and one that can’t fully be passed up.

The pick: Charlotte.

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Now to part two of 2010-11 bowl betting breakdowns to help bettors avoid the pitfalls and common blunders (video) of betting in the bowls.

We present the statistical matchups of the Las Vegas Bowl, Poinsettia Bowl, Hawaii Bowl, and Little Caesars Pizza Bowl.

Starting out with the Las Vegas Bowl, it’s Utah vs. Boise State.

Commencing with the yards per carry data, the higher rated offense is Boise State by .6.

On the same side of the line of scrimmage, yards per reception gives the upper hand to the Broncos by 1.7.

Sharp football bettors exploit yards per point. The more productive unit with the ball in their hands is Boise State by .3.

In stopping rushing attacks, the higher ranked defense according to rushing yards per attempt is Boise State, but by just .1.

The stingier defense in terms of yards per pass catch would be the Broncos again by 2.3.

The more disruptive defense making use of yards per point enlightenment is that of Boise by three.

On the better side of turnover ratio is yet again the Broncos by 11.

Now it’s to Navy vs. San Diego in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Contrasting the yards per rush figures on offense, the facts give the edge to the Naval Academy by .9.

Insofar as passing yards per completion on offense, the computations favors Navy by 1.8.

So many professional bettors make the most of yards per point. Offensively the more productive numbers are owned by San Diego by .6.

Defensively the more tightfisted unit against the run according to yards per rush is San Diego by .8.

Yards per reception digits favor Navy by 1.8.

Calculations on the yards per point math gives the upper hand to Navy by 1.2

Now to net turnover margin, the better squad has been Navy by 17.

Hawaii vs. Tulsa in is the Honolulu Bowl.

In comparing yards per rush on offense, the healthier records go to Tulsa by .2.

Insofar as passing yards per completion on the offensive side of the ball, the advantage is for the Rainbows by .8.

According to yards per point, the not wasteful offense is Hawaii by .3.

Defensively the more miserly team based on yards per rush is Hawaii by .5.

The more exceptional defense based on the stipulation of passing yards per completion is Hawaii by 2.0.

The yards per point statistic used by the best sports handicappers says the better defense is Hawaii by .4.

Hawaii has the turnover edge by three.

Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

Now to Florida International vs. Toledo in the Little Caesars Bowl.

Florida International vs. Toledo play in one of the best games of the week from a sports betting standpoint. It’s the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl.

FIU has the more ample numbers in terms of yards per rush on offense by a margin of .6.

Toledo produces more advantageous computations in terms of passing yards per completion by .2.

The yards per point measurement is one of the most effective against Vegas scores and odds. The more suitable numbers are the property of Toledo by .9.

Now to the defensive side of the ball utilizing the same tallies.

Toledo reigns supreme in stopping the run allowing .5.

Toledo has the better decimals on defense in the passing yards per completion realm by 2.0.

A major facet of Performance Gap Analysis is yards per point. The more rock-solid on the defensive side of the ball in that grouping is Florida International by .3.

Toledo has a turnover margin advantage of 13.

Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

NBA betting has been a windfall for sharp bettors and that continues Monday. Of course the nation’s best handicappers have never been hotter.

Matt Rivers of OffshoreInsiders.com pick Monday is on the Hornets +11.5 against Miami.

Going against Miami in recent days has equaled suicide as LeBron, D Wade and Bosh have started to really gel and form the team that everybody thought they would be. The Heat are great and have now won eight in a row, covering their last seven. Therefore to say anything negative about Erik Spoelstra’s squad is rather silly as they should get another w today but I also do see Chris Paul and the visitors being able to do enough to cover the contest.

Miami is playing their first game back from the four game west coast swing that ended with back-to-back games in Golden State and Sacramento on Friday and Saturday night. One theory that I go by, which works a heck of a lot, is to fade any team that is back home in that first game after a three plus game road trip and that fits the Heat tonight. Then throw in how this is a tough cross country travel all the way from Sacramento down south to Miami and a third game in the last four days. You know that the flight home did not get in until Sunday morning, fairly late, and the players did not get a usual night of sleep making this almost feel like a back-to-back type of a situation. Fatigue has got to be an issue and when factored in with it being that first game back in South Beach how can I not grab this around double-digit number?

New Orleans is not great at all and the 8-0 start to the season was a semi mirage as proven by them dropping three of their last four both straight up and against that number. With that said though the Hornets do have a superstar point guard in Paul along with a few other pieces like David West and Emeka Okafor. New Orleans also hasn’t played since Friday and is without a shadow of a doubt the far fresher team on the court today and to get around double digits makes them just fine with me.

Look for the Heat to resort back to that earlier season form and in the end this thing to be a lot closer than the experts seem to think.

The pick: New Orleans +11

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Lack of finances have derailed the Steve Budin and Al DeMarco Fox Sports infomercial but winning sports betting videos are up.  The sizzling LateInfo has the biggest of all week 14 NFL picks.

The Giants vs. Vikings game has been postponed because of weather and the Metrodome roof issues. The make-up details are being discussed at press time with a Monday Night Football at the University of Minnesota the likely option.

Today in the Daily Sports Roundup: The Pats and Bears both look to extend winning streaks in Chicago, the Cowboys battle the Eagles, and the Nuggets take on the Knicks.

Colliding on the gridiron . . .

Coming off a huge Monday night win, the Patriots (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) will look to stay on a roll on Sunday afternoon when they play on the road against the Bears (9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS). New England pounded the rival Jets 45-3 at home last time out, with Tom Brady throwing for 326 yards with four touchdowns. BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 72 yards and two scores that day. Chicago got past the Lions 24-20 in Detroit last week, as Jay Cutler passed for 234 yards and a touchdown. Matt Forte and Chester Taylor both ran for scores for the Bears in that game. Oddsmakers have the Patriots pegged as 3-point road favorites for Sunday’s matchup, while the total for the contest is at 41 points.

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Other afternoon matchups around the NFL on Sunday: Tampa Bay (-2) at Washington, Cleveland at Buffalo (-1), Green Bay (-7) at Detroit, Oakland at Jacksonville (-4), Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-8.5), Atlanta (-7.5) at Carolina, Seattle at San Francisco (-5.5), St. Louis at New Orleans (-9), Denver (-4.5) at Arizona, Miami at the Jets (-5), and Kansas City at San Diego (-7). As well, on Sunday night it’ll be Philadelphia (-3.5) at Dallas. The Eagles (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) and Cowboys (4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS) will be meeting for the first time this season, with Philadelphia coming off a 34-24 home win over the Texans, and Dallas coming off a 38-35 road win over Indianapolis.

Tipping off on the hardwood . . .

The NBA has six games on tap for Sunday, with New Orleans at Philadelphia, the Lakers at New Jersey, Cleveland at Oklahoma City, Orlando at the Clippers, Portland at San Antonio, and Denver at New York. The Knicks and Nuggets played a high-scoring game in Denver back on November 16, with the home side pulling out a 120-118 win as a 7.5-point favorite. Carmelo Anthony, who has been dealing with a sore knee lately, put up 26 points for the Nuggets in that win over the Knicks, while Al Harrington was good for 22 points. Amare Stoudemire led the Knicks’ attack with 24 points in that night’s loss.

As well, four games involve ranked teams on the college basketball schedule for Sunday: Appalachian State at No. 9 Georgetown, No. 12 Villanova at La Salle, Northern Colorado at No. 16 Illinois, and Western Carolina at No. 2 Ohio State. The second-ranked Buckeyes (7-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) got past IUPUI 75-64 at home last time out, with Jared Sullinger pouring in 40 points in the win. William Buford had 14 points on the day.

Taking a trip around the rink . . .

Finally, the NHL offers up three games on Sunday, with Vancouver at Edmonton, Minnesota at Anaheim, and Washington at the Rangers. The Capitals played the Rangers in New York back on November 9, coming away with a 5-3 win as a -130 road favorite. Brooks Laich scored twice for Washington in that victory, while John Erskine, Mike Knuble, and Matt Hendricks all provided singles. Michal Neuvirth stopped 25 of 28 New York shots. Brian Boyle (with two) and Derek Boogaard had the markers for the Rangers in that losing cause, and Henrik Lundqvist surrendered four goals on 23 shots.