One of the best Vegas scores and odds contests this week in football is the clash between the Bears vs. Packers.

The current Vegas point spread is Green Bay -9.5 with a total of 42 or 42.5.

The best sports picks experts use different key handicapping numbers than the square player. Here is a preview of that game from a handicapping standpoint.

In comparing yards per rush on offense, the superiority from a statistical standpoint goes to Green Bay by .1.

Passing yards per completion is another gauge utilized by bettors. The advantage is possessed by the Green Bay Packers by .3.

Possibly the most utilized number by professional bettors is yards per point. From the offensive viewpoint the positive checkmark is in the column of the Chicago Bears by 1.1.

Now go to the key numbers on the defensive side of the ball. The yards per rush guide says the better run defense is Chicago by .8.

The superior passing yards per completion data on defense give the upper hand to the Bears by .9.

In terms of yards per point, the better defense is Green Bay by 2.7. Turnover margin is the Green Bay Packers by six.

Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

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Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Chicago is 8-22 as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Green Bay 19-9 to NFC North.

Over/under trends: Chicago has gone over 8-0 in January, yet under 42-18 as road underdogs.

Green Bay under 7-1 off win and the series has gone under five straight.

This week’s NFL football schedule includes a contest between the Jaguars vs. Texans. Houston is -3 with a total of 45.5.

OffshoreInsiders.com takes a look at the football betting match-up using key numbers employed by professional gamblers.

In comparing yards per rush on offense, the better numbers belong to Houston, but by just .1.

As far as passing yards per completion on the offensive side of the ball, the upper hand is for, it’s the Texans by .7.

According to yards per point, the more efficient offense is Jacksonville by .7.

Defensively the more stingy team based on yards per rush is Houston by .6.

The superior defense in terms of passing yards per completion the Jacksonville Jaguars by .1.

The yards per point statistic used by the best sports handicappers says the superior defense is Jacksonville forcing .3 more. Turnovers see Houston with a ratio advantage of nine.

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Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Jacksonville 5-0 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, 4-11 after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Texans are 2-7 to AFC, 1-6 after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, 1-7 off spread loss.

Over/under trends: Jacksonville over 7-1 road, over 10-2 to AFC, but under 10-3 after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Houston over 6-1 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, over 22-8 to teams with a winning record, over 21-7 following a ATS loss, over 21-9 after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Matt Rivers has a huge NFL spread picks winner Sunday is on the Green Bay Packers -9.5 to Chicago.

Reasoning: Jay Cutler and the Bears have had a great season but after the Falcons dispatch the Panthers, which I’m hard pressed to believe won’t happen, then this game will be rendered meaningless and we will see a bunch of reserves for Chicago get action. In this rivalry Lovie Smith’s boys should still compete but they are up against a team that has too much going for them to slip up.

Aaron Rodgers proved a lot to me last week coming back from the concussion and looking as good as he did in what really was an elimination game against the Giants. Now the Packers are involved in another game that they have to win and if they do then they will be in the playoffs. When you factor in their motivation along with a lack of Bears motivation and the home field advantage of Lambeau plus a matter of revenge after losing the first game at Soldier Field then I just do not see this game ending up in single digits.

Green Bay won at the Meadowlands in a shutout against the playoff bound Jets, should have beaten New England on the road with Matt Flynn, squashed the Giants last week and overall have the upside to win the Super Bowl. This team is no joke and that is with a ton of injuries this season. With Rodgers back in the fold and the season once again on the line we are about to see a 31-10 demolition as the men in yellow and green quality for the postseason.

Top expert pick on this game: Green Bay -9.5

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Great sports handicapper Matt Rivers has Michigan State today getting eight from Alabama.

Reasoning: Alabama truly may be the best team in the country. In a one game situation Nick Saban’s squad quite possibly would be favored over anybody on a neutral field. But just like a few seasons ago against Utah at the Superdome how in the world can the Crimson Tide players be all that excited about this game?

Emotions clearly play a major part in this time of the year and going down south in the Capital One Bowl just should not do it for the Tide. Just look at Georgia, Clemson and Miami yesterday alone as neither of the three showed much of anything in games they probably were not destined to play in earlier in the season.  Guys like Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson and Julio Jones are awesome and future NFL players for sure. Greg McElroy is a quality signal caller who can more than hold his own against the Spartans but is also coming off of that injury against Auburn and who knows if that can affect the guy. I can see these Alabama players just going through the motions a bit and all in all for Michigan State to be the far more motivated squad and the team with a chip on its shoulder after being kept out of the BCS.

I do not believe that Mark D’Antoni’s boys are as good as either Wisconsin or Ohio State but the players do have a beef as they were 11-1 and BCS worthy. Plus they were the lone team to down the Badgers and should feel a little hosed. Being left out basically off the field should fuel State and especially so when playing against the defending National Champions.

Look for Kirk Cousins and Sparty to be the more emotional team and stay within this number. A win may be a bit much but it also may not be. After that dreadful implosion against rival Auburn how can the Tide really be all that ready to play today?

Top expert pick on this game: Michigan State from Matt Rivers

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Expanding on the New Year’s and BCS Bowls podcast, it’s the Capitol One Bowl preview from the Citrus Bowl in Orlando between Michigan State vs. Alabama.

Michigan State is an impressive 11-1 straight up, 7-5 against the spread, while Alabama is 9-3 in the newspapers, but 7-5 in the sportsbooks.

The Spartans get 4.9 yards per rush to foes that are permitting an average of 4.4, 8.3 yards per pass to 7.5 and 6.4 yards per play to 5.8.

They allow just 3.6 yards per rush to teams that usually get 4.3, 6.5 passing yards per attempt to 7.3 and 5.0 yards per play to 5.6.

Alabama gets 5.0 yards per rush to teams that normally allow 4.3, 9.2 passing yards per attempt to 7.4 and 6.9 yards per play to 5.7.

The Crimson Tide defense allows 3.6 yards per rush to squads that normally accumulate 4.3, 6.1 passing yards per attempt to 7.5 and 4.8 yards per play to 5.7.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Alabama is 3-8 as an underdog. The Crimson Tide is 5-0 outside the conference, but 2-9 off straight up loss.

Over/under trends: The Spartans have gone over 48-19 as underdogs. Alabama has gone over 6-1 outside conference.

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It’s Penn State vs. Florida in the Raymond James Bowl. The Gators are a seven-point favorite with a total of 48. Here is the official betting preview.

Penn State is 7-5 straight up and 5-7 to the number. Florida is 7-5 straight up and 6-6 against the spread.

The Nittany Lions get 4.2 yards per rush to foes that are permitting an average of 4.0 and 7.2 passing yards per attempt to teams that normally allow 6.9, and 5.6 yards per play to 5.4.

The allow 4.5 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.3, 7.0 yards per pass to 7.7, and 5.6 yards per play to 5.8.

Gators get 4.3 yards per rush to defenses that permit 4.1, but a rotten 6.5 yards per pass to squads usually permitting 7.1 and just 5.3 yards per play to 5.5.

Florida has been about defense this year allowing 3.5 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.2, just 6.3 yards per pass to 7.4, and 4.7 yards per play to 5.6.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): The Nittany Lions are 1-5 as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Gators are 6-1 neutral sites as favorites, 22-10 overall as chalks, and 20-7 outside the conference. However, they are 0-5 to teams with a winning record.

Over/under trends: Penn State has gone under seven straight outside conference. Florida has gone over 7-2 following a SU loss of more than 20 points.

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Northwestern vs. Texas Tech kick off the 2011 football betting season in the Dallas Football Classic played at the Cotton Bowl. Texas Tech is laying nine points with a total of 60.5. In addition to the 2011 bowl betting podcast, OffshoreInsiders.com has the official betting preview.

Northwestern is 7-5 straight up, but just 3-9 against the spread, going over 7-of-11 this season. Texas Tech is 7-5 outright, but 5-6 where it really counts.

The Wildcats are much more successful passing than running. They get just 3.5 yards per rush to squads usually permitting 4.1, 8.2 passing yards per attempt to defenses that allow an average of 7.5 and 5.5 yards per play to 5.6.

Northwestern allows 5.1 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.2, but they are better at stopping the pass allowing 6.7 yards per pass to teams that usually get 7.0. Overall they permit 5.9 yards per play to 5.5.

Texas Tech gets 4.1 yards per rush to squads usually permitting 4.3, but just 6.7 yards per pass to 7.1 and 5.6 yards per play to 5.6.

Defensively, they are permitting 4.1 yards per rush to squads that normally accumulate 4,1, 7.5 yards per pass to 7.1 and 5.9 yards per play to 5.6.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Northwestern has dropped 7-of-8 overall. But they are 21-6 as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, 17-5 after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. On the other hand, they are 1-8 following a SU loss of more than 20 points and 0-6 after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Texas Tech is 1-6 off spread win.

Over/under trends: Wildcats have gone over 6-1 as an underdog, but under 10-2 after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.

Texas Tech has gone under 6-0 off spread win.

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One more stop on the bowl betting circuit before we start talking BCS. Next up, it’s the Cotton Bowl, which features the very solid LSU versus Texas A&M.

(11) LSU Tigers (10-2) vs (18) Texas A&M Aggies (9-3)

Friday, January 7, 2011

Latest odds: LSU -1

Over/Under: 49

The Louisiana State Tigers were national title contenders earlier this season, opening the year 7-0, but most sports betting sharps saw the cracks. The Tigers scraped by too many so-so opponents, going only 3-4 against the spread during their undefeated start, and their absolutely atrocious passing game had to catch up to them sooner or later.

Though LSU is 2-5 ATS over its last seven against teams with winning records and 1-4 ATS over its last five games as a favorite, the Tigers have fared well at the sportsbook in their recent bowl games. They’re 4-1 ATS over their last five bowl affairs.

Not surprisingly for an elite defensive school like LSU, eight of the Tigers’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total.

Texas A&M closed the 2010 season with a phenomenal run both straight-up and against the NCAA football betting spread, going 6-0 over their final six games in both regards and winning tough matchups against Oklahoma and Nebraska along the way.

Strangely enough, while their recent trends are red-hot, their bowl game trends are absolutely ice cold. They’re 0-4 ATS over their last four bowl games, 0-5-1 ATS over their last six against the SEC and 0-7 ATS over their last seven neutral-site games. Four of Texas A&M’s last five bowl games have fallen UNDER the over/under.

LSU has the No. 9 defense in the nation and the ninth-ranked pass defense, allowing just 165.9 yards per game. That’s a highly impressive stat for an SEC team; it largely reflects the outstanding play of cornerback Patrick Peterson, who projects as a high first-round NFL pick.

Offensively, the Tigers did just enough to get by this year. Their running game was solid but their passing game was a mess, ranking 107^th in the country with a paltry 155.4 yards per game.

Texas A&M’s strength is its passing game, which is 18^th in the nation. Jerrod Johnson started the year as the Aggies’ go-to quarterback but the job belongs to Ryan Tannehill now. The two signal callers have combined for 25 touchdown passes this season.

Defensively, the Aggies are 22^nd against the run and surrender only 20.3 points per game but they struggle mightily against the pass, ranking 95^th with 240.5 yards allowed per contest.

It’s Kansas State vs. Syracuse in the Pinstripes Bowl. The game is a pick at most sportsbooks with a total of 48, though it’s 47.5 in some shops. Kansas State is 7-5 straight up and 6-6 against the spread, going over 8-3. Syracuse is 7-5 straight up and against the spread, going under 7-3 their last 10.

Kansas State averages 4.8 yards per rush teams that normally allow 4.3 and 7.7 yards per pass to 7.1, 5.8 yards per play to 5.6. Defensively, the Wildcats allow 5.9 yards per rush to teams that usually get 4.5, but 6.7 yards per pass to 6.9, 6.3 yards per play to 5.5.

Syracuse gets 3.9 yards per rush to defenses that allow an average of 4.1, 6.2 passing yards per attempt to 7.1 and 5.0 yards per play to 5.5.

On defense, the Orange allow 3.6 yards per rush to teams that usually get 4.0, 5.5 passing yards per attempt to 6.3 and 4.4 yards per play to 5.0.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Kansas State is 3-11 after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, 0-4 in bowls.

The Orangemen are 10-3 after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): The Wildcats have gone over 16-5 after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Syracuse under 8-0 to teams with a winning record, under 20-7 on grass.

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The ESPN college football schedule and bowl picks against the spread kicks off Thursday with Army vs. SMU in the Armed Forces Bowl. Southern Methodist is -7 -115 at most sportsbooks with a total of 52.

Army enters 6-6 straight up, 5-6 against the spread having gone over 8-3 this season. SMU is 7-6 outright and 6-7 to the number.

The Black Knights are perceived to be the much better running team but that’s for those who confuse the accuracy of ratings vs. rankings. In reality, Army gets 4.5 yards per rush to defenses that permit 4.5, 7.5 yards per pass to 7.2, but just 5.0 yards per play to teams that normally allow 5.6, a number that includes special teams.

On defense, Army allows 4.3 yards per rush to squads that normally accumulate 4.2, a generous 7.8 yards per pass to 7.1 and 5.7 yards per play to 5.4.

Southern Methodist rushes for 4.8 yards per carry to defenses that allow an average of 4.4, 7.4 passing yards per attempt to 7.3, getting a nice margin of 6.3 yards per play against foes that are permitting an average of just 5.8.

Their numbers are quite accomplished on defense permitting 3.7 yards per rush versus teams normally getting 4.4, 6.8 yards per pass to 7.3 and a stingy 5.1 yards per pass against teams that usually get 5.8.

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Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Army is 6-1 as road underdogs, yet 7-18  as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, 2-8 to teams with a winning record. SMU is 4-13 as favorites, 0-6 after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Over/under trends: Army has gone under 7-0 following a double-digit loss at home. SMU has gone over 10-2 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.