All posts by Joe Duffy

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Jan 27 Free Pick, NBA Injuries, Who Public is Betting On

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Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com has four free picks in college basketball.

Nova (-2,143) at St John’s 

Nova 19th in the nation on offensive efficiency, while St. Johns 38th on defense 

Nova 46th on defense. St. John’s 100th on offensive efficiency 

Red Storm has won 2-of-3 SU in series 

Villanova Jermaine Samuels (11.1 points, 5.0 rebounds) is questionable 

Home teams that have won three or less of previous 8 yet at least 8 games over .500 463-374-20 (Red Storm)

432-337-16 if not getting more than four points

Computer projections from three independent sources: Villanova 72-70; 73-71; 72-69

The pick: St. John’s +2

FSU at UVA (Virginia -1, 115)

Virginia needs signature win as on bubble 

Underdogs ranked 7th or higher yet underdogs to unranked team are 157-110-4 (FSU) and 21-5 last two years

First meeting many turnovers Virginia 18, FSU 16

Points tough to come by for both

Virginia 4th in defensive efficiency, while FSU 31st on offense 

FSU 37th in defensive efficiency, Virginia 236 on offense 

Virginia slowest pace in nation

Computer projections from three independent sources: FSU 55-54; 57-56; 57-55

The pick: Florida State

Purdue at Rutgers (-3, 123)

Rutgers No. 6 defense, Purdue 51st offense

Purdue 11th on defense, Rutgers 72nd on offense 

Hunted rather than hunter, top 25 for first time since 1979

Big home court edge 

Computer projections from three independent sources: Rutgers 58-55; 61-59; 63-58

The pick: UNDER

Pitt at Duke (-16, 137)

Duke 5th on defense, Pitt 115th on offense

Duke 2nd offense, Pitt 56th defense

Inconsistent freshman Matthew Hurt, 6-9 big man getting into groove for Duke 

Pittsburgh little depth in front court and Duke will attack inside

Blue Devils wear them down 

Computer projections from three independent sources: Duke 80-57; 77-60; 75-59

The pick: Duke -16

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NBA injuries

Joel Embiid, PHI vs GS, Questionable 

Jayson Tatum, BOS @ MIA, Doubtful

Ricky Rubio, PHX @ DAL, Questionable 

Jae Crowder, MEM vs DEN, Questionable 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: New Orleans; Villanova, Florida, Virginia Tech, Rutgers 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Golden State, Atlanta, Cleveland UNDER; Virginia Tech, Villanova, George Mason

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Memphis Grizzlies; Georgetown

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. JDP is 10-3 NBA. It is about to get better. Five NBA winners, led by two Wise Guys. Promises made, promises delivered.  Get the picks now

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Monday NBA Injuries, Added Rotation College Basketball Pick, More

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Added rotation college basketball winner. 5 Dimes is our preferred bookie for added games. 

Key NBA injuries:

Jimmy Butler, MIA vs ORL, questionable

Bam Adebayo, MIA vs ORL, probable

Tony Snell, DET vs CLE , questionable

Derrick Rose, DET vs CLE, probable

Contrarian and consensus intel: 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Miami Heat, Dallas

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Minnesota Timberwolves 

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Detroit Pistons

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none in NBA or college basketball 

Free pick from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy.  

ARKANSAS PINE-BLUFF +15 Texas Southern 

Horrible road teams on the road is 1727-1514-67. Underdogs in a stretch of low-scoring games are 555-438-18. When both apply, it is 195-131-7. 

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has a named play, a 64 percent proposition in the history of betting since JD made his debut on the free scorephones in 1988 as lead handicapper for the Amazing Cadillac Club. Western Conference Game of the Month among two NBA. Plus that “high volume” super system in college basketball is on a roll, producing a college basketball side.  Get the picks now

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Free NBA Picks, Injuries, College Basketball Public Betting Consensus

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Super sharp report with news, notes, NBA injuries, a free basketball pick, sharp versus square public consensus moves and more for Sunday, January 26, 2020.

NBA

Brooklyn (-1, 221.5)-New York

Nets playing back-to-back after playing in Detroit last night

Toronto (-2, 223.5)-San Antonio

San Antonio first of back-to-back games

Toronto won six straight but last loss to Spurs 

Favorites in at least six game winning streaks and in revenge are 146-124-8

Michigan St (-4.5. 140) at Minnesota

Regression to mean angle is 971-798-30 (Michigan State) 

MSU 9-10 ats -.7

Minnesota 12-7 +4.9

Winning percentage is better in conference play

MSU 5th in offensive efficiency while Minnesota #51 on defense 

Minnesota 14th in offensive efficiency with MSU #21 on defense 

Maryland at Indiana (-2 -115, 131)

Maryland matches up well on defense ranked #7, compared to Indiana #43 on offense 

Indiana 45th defensive efficiency, while Indiana #52 on offense 

Both been much better at home than road 

Indiana under 7-1 last eight

Teams under at least 7-of-8 do stay under 4631-4403-142

NBA Injuries

James Harden, HOU @ DEN is questionable

Jrue Holiday, NO vs BOS is probable

Jae Crowder, MEM vs PHX is doubtful

Jayson Tatum, BOS @ NO is questionable 

Jaylen Brown, BOS @ NO is questionable 

Patrick Beverley, LAC @ ORL is questionable 

Sunday sharp report: 

5 Dimes lives up to their name. Many of my highest rollers bet substantial amounts of money there and always get paid. They are also the #1 book for added rotation games, niche and obscure betting as well. 5 Dimes is fully vetted. The official book of high rollers!

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Memphis Grizzlies; Drake 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Toronto Raptors, Memphis Grizzlies; Drake, Houston Cougars 

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Portland, Denver; Evansville 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: NY Knicks opened +1.5 now -1.5; Manhattan opened -1 now +1.5

Free pick from Joe Duffy’s Picks is:

WASHINGTON +1 Atlanta 

Road teams playing a bad team and in a bad stretch of defensive efforts are undervalued at 126-74-1. Road favorites or small underdogs on a massive high scoring streak are 644-507-15. 

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy. He is 10-5 the last 15 and 6-2 NBA. Wise Guy underdog Sixers win in a rout. Pro Bowl winner. We rarely make picks on All-Star games, but this one is special. Three NBA led by Wise Guy and four college basketball. Yes, 8-0 in all! Get the picks now

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Sports Betting Notes Super Bowl LIV Chiefs vs. 49ers

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Top betting and sportsbook site OffshoreInsiders.com has betting news and notes for Super Bowl LIV. 

Niners vs. Chiefs

82 percent of bets, 84 percent of money on OVER

52 percent of bets, 52 percent of money on Kansas City 

Teams that won at least 9-of-10 SU yet not laying at least a FG are a go-against 48-23 including 2-1 in Super Bowl (San Francisco) 

Super Bowl teams with lower winning percentage but not big dog are 11-1 (KC)

Fade better rushing team late in season and playoffs is 86-52-2 (favors KC) 

In the playoffs, fade drastically improved teams from previous year is 30-15

San Francisco gets 7.9 yards per pass teams normally allowing 6.8

KC passes for 7.9 yards per pass teams normally allowing 6.9

Niners hold teams to .8 yards per play below normal average, KC .2 below

Tevin Coleman RB questionable 

137 rushing attempts for 544 yards, 6 TDs, 180 yards receiving 

ATS trends:

KC 8-0 ats explosion

OU trends:

San Francisco over 9-3

Teaser:

KC 38-1 on ten-point teaser when averaging 27 or more previous three games

5 Dimes lives up to their name. Many of my highest rollers bet substantial amounts of money there and always get paid. They are also the #1 book for added rotation games, niche and obscure betting as well. 5 Dimes is fully vetted. The official book of high rollers!

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NBA Injuries, College Basketball Betting Inside Info and Free Pick

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College basketball betting notes, plus NBA injuries from OffshoreInsiders.com

Wisconsin at Purdue 

Totals of 116 or less go over 360-291-10 rate 

However total has climbed as high at 116.5 at MYBookie after opening at 111 at Betonline

After averaging 7.3 points in his first nine games of the season, sophomore forward Trevion Williams is averaging 14.8 over his past 10 games for Boilermakers 

Purdue struggling on defensive boards

Purdue’s struggles mean they may up the pace 

Marquette at Butler 

Marquette 14th in offensive efficiency, but Butler 16th on defense 

Marquette very good from perimeter, but Butler outstanding defending 3

Warriors 187th in second-chance points, while Butler 12th in allowing points off offensive rebounds 

But Marquette third on defensive rebounding second chance points, while Marquette middle of road crashing offensive boards

Not much scoring unless both teams light it up

Butler 335th in pace of 353 teams 

Northern Kentucky at Wright St 

Wright State 229th in field goal percentage while NKU solid #113 on defense 

NKU 31st in converting turnovers into points 

Wright State vulnerable defensively inside, but NKU does not have offense to exploit that 

Northern Kentucky slow-down game, ranked 295th in pace

The pick: UNDER 

Jimmy Butler, MIA vs LAC, questionable 
Jayson Tatum, BOS @ ORL, questionable

Andre Drummond, DET vs MEM, probable 
Trae Young, ATL @ OKC, questionable 
Jaylen Brown, BOS @ ORL, questionable 

Kendrick Nunn, MIA vs LAC, questionable 
Michael Porter Jr., DEN @ NO, questionable

Patrick Beverley, LAC @ MIA, questionable 
Bruce Brown, DET vs MEM, questionable 
Gary Harris, DEN @ NO, questionable 
Wesley Matthews, MIL @ CHR, probable
Lauri Markkanen, CHI vs SAC, probable 
Steven Adams, OKC vs ATL, questionable 

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy, off a sweep! Second straight 3-0 sweep tonight is led by two Wise Guys among three NBA winners. I’ve been a pro handicapper since 1988 and “for fun” years before that. I don’t make promises I can’t keep. We had a brief slump and knew from decades of winning, the payback was coming. So I sweep last night, a perfect 3-0 and only one game was close.  Get the picks now

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Critical NBA Injuries For Betting and Fantasy Sports, Free Sports Pick ATS

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Academy Awards, Vegas live dealer, Super Bowl odds and props, the Royal Rumble and so much more up now at  5 Dimes

Washington-Cleveland

Cleveland third worst margin of cover at -2 and 19-24

Washington over by 4.5 points per game, tied for third highest in league and over 26-17

Lakers-Brooklyn 

Nets have dropped four straight games and 11 of their past 13. 

Off Philly, Milwaukee, Sixers then at Detroit and New York on back to back 

Lakers in middle of five game road trip 

Dallas-Portland 

Mavericks second best ats team based on margin of cover at +3.5 at 22-19 ats 

Portland second worst at -2.5 and 16-27 ats tied for worst

When a road team has a net ats margin of 6 or better on game 42 or later, superior road team is 24-16 for 60 percent including 9-1 if team we are betting on is off loss

Dallas over 26-17 by league leading 5.4 points per game 

Tennessee Martin-Eastern Illinois

Tennessee Martin 5-10 ats -4.3

Eastern Illinois, though 6-10 is +3.3 margin of cover 

Regression to mean 967-794-29

UT Martin ranked 113th in offensive efficiency, while EIU is 203rd in defensive efficiency 

Eastern Illinois very inconsistent this season 

Pick: Tennessee Martin +8.5

Stevie Vincent is an all-time great and he is officially the hottest handicapper on earth following another sweep led by College Basketball Game of the Half Century on South Dakota State. Big 12 Game of the Year leads another sweep. Get the picks now

NBA injuries

Kyrie Irving, BKN vs LAL, probable 

CJ McCollum, POR vs DAL, questionable        

Hassan Whiteside, POR vs DAL, probable      

DeAndre Jordan, BKN vs LAL, questionable