All posts by Joe Duffy

Wednesday Sampler

Wednesday sports betting picks for online casino and online
sportsbook domination

 

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Godspicks.com
is No. 1 since 1980, 1992, 2000 and simply put all-time ROI.  Another, yes another winning night last
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Wednesday Godspicks

Wednesday, August 23,
2006

Three
night winners
, including a Dandy Dog, go with our day winner. Dandy dogs
are dogs of 140 or more in MLB.  Godspicks.com
has yet another winning night.  We go 3-2
with our only Wise Guy being easy on Minnesota.  We also added Dandy Dog Kansas City.  Go 4-0 now. The ENTIRE card  is just $17 at www.godspicks.com. 
  

College and NFL advanced notes are live at JoeDuffy.net

MLB

LA ANAHEIM (ESCOBAR -140) Boston
(Lester) Bet now through the
Greek, home
of the 21 percent sign up bonus

The Red Sox are the poster child for what we tell you
about being careful simply going with a team that “needs to win it more”.  Teams that are in must-win
games got there because they struggled winning must-win games to begin with.

Boston is 4-13
their last 17, 1-8 their last nine, including six straight losses. Anaheim
is on a 5-0 run. They are 12-5 their last 17.

Wow, talk about our famed bubble burst theory—this year’s
poster child is John Lester. Over his last six starts, his ERA is 6.63 and that
includes 9.88 in his last three with a 2.268 WHIP.

Despite little run support, Kelvim
Escobar has a 3.31 home ERA with a 1.260 WHIP.

Totals Handicapping Is the Key

Picking Over/Unders Just May Be the Hot Trend in Handicapping

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)

Long time clients know that we do not use a lot of ATS
trends in our handicapping.  However,
knowing the public loves them, we do compile such angles for our daily content.
It is geared towards non-clients who do utilize them in their own
handicapping. 

Over the years, we noticed an unarguable pattern that our
data mining sources will turn up a disproportionate number of statistically
significant over/under trends as opposed to wins and losses against the
spread.  We are ecstatic to see the
success of my long-time colleague, Stevie Vincent of KnockoutPicks.com.  I’ve known Stevie since he was my Executive
Editor of the Scorephone “Tailgate Party” pre-game information reports, that if
I may say so, we made famous in the 1980s and 1990s.

Stevie is the founder of forensic handicapping, a
complicated process that in short is based on the science of uncovering
patterns in the past to accurately predict the future.  Trends are the basis of it, but application
requires systematic and methodical diligence, not just mere trend
regurgitation.

Vincent believes it is very obvious why it is easier to
find patterns in totals. Sports is about making adjustments, but it is “much
easier and therefore more common, to change the methods than it is to augment
than the end result.” 

Forensic handicapping has proven, what seems so simplistic.
“If, for example, a football team has lost three straight games in high scoring
blowouts, passing the ball 70 percent of the time and running 30 percent, the
area to adjust is obvious” and according to his contention and research, in
most cases coaches and teams will adjust the pace or style they’ve employed. “But
it does not mean the results will change”. 

He says one can uncover patterns, in which in such
hypothetical model, that team may fiddle with and instead lose a lower scoring
game. But he asserts, there will be a lot more historical patterns that suggest
the approach will change even if the result does not.

Approach, pace, or whatever term gamblers wish to assign,
is what generally will effect the total more. 
The actual success in executing it determines the final score.

While Vincent states emphatically “the end results (spread
win or loss) follow a distinctive pattern themselves” but they will not pass
the necessary laws of probability at as high of a rate as totals handicapping.

With the success KnockoutPicks.com
has had since Stevie finally made his professional handicapping debut in April,
we would be “totally” nuts not to listen to his wisdom with over/under plays.

Stevie Vincent’s FREE information will be part of the
Tailgate Party’s cyber debut all football season long, seven days a week, at JoeDuffy.net

Advanced News and Notes in the NFL

Thursday, August 24, 2006

 

Here are news and notes from Godspicks.com
private clipboard.  They are compiled
from hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. If you like this
free information from Godspicks.com, the only way to keep it
free is to click on the links, bet with the sponsors and tell them JoeDuffy.net
sent you.

Dolphins-Panthers

Sun Sentinel

For the first time this preseason, several Dolphins
players sported the jersey numbers worn by their counterparts on the Carolina
Panthers at practice to prepare for Thursday’s exhibition.At
Monday’s practice Dolphins receivers Fred Gibson, Marcus Vick and Jamall Broussard were doing their best imitations of
Panthers receivers Keyshawn Johnson, Steve Smith and Keary
Colbert. Running back Kay-Jay Harris was wearing William DeAngelo’s
No. 34, and defensive end Ben Ishola had on No. 90
for Julius Peppers. “We go out there and have more of an in-season practice,
some stuff against each other, some stuff against the scout team,” Saban said. “Everybody is kind of a little bit out of
synch, but I was really pleased with the way the players responded as the
practice went on.” Bet the
NFL now at -107 juice! Check
out the
latest odds
at CanBet.
 

 

Dolphins coach Nick Saban said
that his starters likely will still be on the field for the start of the third
quarter of Thursday night’s preseason game at Carolina.
“We’ll probably play our starting team a little bit more,” Saban
said following Tuesday’s practice. “At least a half, maybe a
series in the second half.
Not just the starting team, but more the
rotation of how we would play a game. I think you’ve got to pick one of these
[exhibition games] and say, ‘Everybody’s got to know the game isn’t over at
halftime.’ “ Starting cornerback Travis Daniels (ankle) and backup defensive
backs Michael Lehan (knee) and Norman LeJeune (undisclosed) also didn’t play in last Saturday’s
13-10 victory over Tampa Bay.Cornerback Eddie
Jackson, who missed the Bucs game because of a strained abdominal muscle,
practiced on a limited basis Tuesday and could play against the Panthers. Other
players who practiced on a limited basis Tuesday were wide receiver Kelly
Campbell (quadriceps) and tight ends Justin Peelle
(ankle) and Jason Rader (undisclosed). Guards Seth McKinney (neck) and Joe
Toledo (knee) didn’t practice and won’t play against Carolina.

KnockoutPicks.com

Miami is
greatly lacking depth in the defensive secondary because of injuries.

 

Friday, August 25,
2006

 

Cardinals-Bears

Daily Herald

Quarterback Rex
Grossman and the Bears’ offense, both struggling through the first two
preseason games, will get three quarters to work out the kinks Friday night
against the
Arizona Cardinals at Soldier
Field.
Grossman isn’t
expecting a repeat of the first two mediocre performances. Grossman has
completed 10 of 25 passes for 130 yards, no touchdowns and 1 interception,
while nine-year veteran Brian Griese is 8 of 9 for 150 yards with 3 touchdowns
and no interceptions, playing with and against second-stringers.

Four starters,
including running back Cedric Benson (shoulder), safety Mike Brown (Achilles),
fullback Bryan Johnson (hamstring) and cornerback Nate
Vasher (back), already have been declared out of
Friday’s game.
A fifth
starter, defensive tackle Ian Scott (knee), is doubtful. Defensive tackles Tank
Johnson (quad), Michael Haynes (back) and rookie Dusty Dvoracek
(foot) are questionable, as is wide receiver Airese
Currie (knee).
Guard Ruben
Brown (general soreness) and running back Thomas Jones (hamstring) are
probable.
Bet this game now through BetUs. Check out the lines now

 

Suburban Chicago News

Bears coach Lovie Smith said he’s
hopeful RB Jones will play Friday night at Soldier
Field against the Arizona Cardinals while Cedric Benson will have to wait at
least another week. A couple good runs by anyone would only benefit the Bears’
offense right now. They’ve gained only 127 total rushing yards on 43 carries,
for a 3-yard average, without a run longer than 15 yards.

KnockoutPicks.com

Arizona is
expected to play starters into the third quarter.

Ravens-Vikings

KnockoutPicks.com  

Baltimore RB Jamal Lewis will
rest the remainder of the preseason

Steelers-Eagles

AllianceHandicapping.com

Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward
will likely miss. Philadelphia is
pressing their wide receiver Todd Pinkston to play, as he has yet to play a down
because of injury.  Bet this game now through BetUs. Check out the lines now

 

Lions-Raiders

San Francisco Chronicle

Quarterback Aaron Brooks had his best game of the
preseason, leading the Raiders’ starting offense to a 10-0 halftime lead in
Sunday’s win over the 49ers, and backup Andrew Walter turned in a pretty nifty
performance himself. Walter finished the game with eight completions in 10
attempts for 99 yards, leading two second-half scoring drives that put away the
Raiders’ 23-7 victory. Brooks appeared to secure his grip on the role as No. 1
quarterback in what is becoming a two-man show. All in all, it was an
impressive showing on both sides of the ball, but a particular step forward for
an offense that has had its share of misfires. “Winning is a part of what we do
… it creates good habits,” coach Art Shell said. “Even
though we won three games … there are a lot of mistakes we have to take care
of.” The improvement on offense was seen all the way down the depth chart with
the second- and third-string players holding their own.

Shell acknowledged that the performances in Sunday night’s
game could force some difficult decisions when it comes time to begin trimming
the roster to get to the 53-man regular-season limit. Strong safety Michael
Huff, the team’s No. 1 draft pick this year who turned his left ankle on the
infield dirt in Sunday night’s game, probably will miss Friday night’s
exhibition against the Lions at the Coliseum. Bet now through the Greek, home of the 21
percent sign up bonus

 

Detroit Free
Press

Barring any setbacks, linebacker Boss Bailey (hamstring) will play the first half Friday when the
Lions visit the Oakland Raiders

Saturday, August 26,
2006

Falcons-Titans

Tennessean

The Titans stunk up the rarified Rocky
Mountain
air in losing 35-10 to the
Denver Broncos. The Falcons departed at halftime trailing Green
Bay
, 24-10. Atlanta’s
reserves packed it in as the Birds wound up on the wrong end of a 38-10
blowout. Bet the NFL now
at -107 juice! Check out the
latest odds
at CanBet.
 

49ers-Cowboys

San Francisco Chronicle

The Titans stunk up the rarified Rocky
Mountain
air in losing 35-10 to the
Denver Broncos. The Falcons departed at halftime trailing Green Bay, 24-10. Atlanta’s
reserves packed it in as the Birds wound up on the wrong end of a 38-10
blowout.

Wednesday Computer Trends

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Check out the first installment of our college football
news and notes now at JoeDuffy.net
all free from the clipboard of Godspicks.com

MLB

·       
St. Louis Mulder 10-5
team record over 10-5

·       
Mets Trachsel over 16-7, 17-7 team record

·       
Cubs Guzman over all five, Cubs 0-5 with him

·       
Toronto Chacin over
7-1, 8-2 team record

·       
Yankees Wang 13-5 personal record

·       
Houston Oswalt 15-0 personal lifetime record to Cincinnati
with a 2.41 ERA

·       
San Francisco Schmidt 19-6 team mark to Arizona
lifetime

·       
NY Mets Trachsel 6-12 team mark to St.
Louis
lifetime

·       
Fogg 8-4 lifetime team
mark to Milwaukee

·       
White Sox 14-5 team lifetime mark to Detroit

Advanced News and Notes in College Football



Thursday, August 31,
2006

 

Northwestern-Miami Oh

Press Notes

Miami University
head football coach Shane Montgomery announced today that junior Mike Kokal has been named the RedHawks
starting quarterback for the upcoming 2006 season. Kokal,
Miami’s top back-up over the past
two seasons, had been one of three Miami
quarterbacks vying for the position since last spring. Since 2001, Miami’s
passing offense has ranked fourth nationally in passing yards per game (291.0)
behind only Texas Tech, Hawai’i
and Arizona State.
The RedHawks have ranked among the nation’s Top 30 in
total offense, passing offense and scoring offense in each of the past three
years.  Joining Kokal
on the offensive side of the ball are five returning starters, including
all-MAC senior wide receiver Ryne Robinson (Toledo,
OH
/Central Catholic) and all-MAC junior
running back Brandon Murphy. Bet
the NFL now at -107 juice!
Check out the latest odds at CanBet.
 

 

 

Saturday, September 2,
2006

Utah-UCLA

Associated Press

As expected, UCLA coach Karl Dorrell
announced Monday that Ben Olson has beaten out Patrick Cowan and will start at
quarterback for the Bruins on Sept. 2 when they open the season against Utah
at the Rose Bowl. Olson played briefly in relief of starter Drew Olson last
season, completing 2-of-4 passes for 11 yards. The 23-year-old Olson enrolled
at UCLA last winter after transferring from BYU. He
had been on a church mission for the previous two years after redshirting as a freshman in 2002. Olson, a 6-foot-5,
225-pound sophomore, was one of the country’s top recruits before deciding to
attend BYU. The left-hander passed for 2.989 yards
and 32 touchdowns as a senior at Thousand Oaks High in 2001.  Bet now through the Greek, home of the 21
percent sign up bonus

 

Washington State-Auburn

Associated Press

Indeed, Auburn
has lost three of its last four openers, beating only Louisiana-Monroe en route
to a 13-0 season in ‘04. (The Tigers also lost a close game at USC in 2002). It’s
a remarkable statistic for a team that has managed to win 35 games during that
four-year span. A similarly punchless performance
against Washington State
would spoil all the enthusiasm and expectations surrounding this team. Indeed, Auburn
has lost three of its last four openers, beating only Louisiana-Monroe en route
to a 13-0 season in ‘04. (The Tigers also lost a close game at USC in 2002). It’s
a remarkable statistic for a team that has managed to win 35 games during that
four-year span. A similarly punchless performance
against Washington State
would spoil all the enthusiasm and expectations surrounding this team. Both
were far better the rest of the season, leading the SEC’s best offense. Irons
only started nine games but wound up rushing for 1,293 yards and closing the
regular season with six consecutive 100-yard games. Cox posted the fourth-best
single-season passing total in school history (2,324 yards) and was the league’s
No. 2-rated passer in his first season as starter, guiding a 9-3 team. A
revamped defense will have to come through for Auburn
to stake that claim. With linebackers Tray Blackmon and Kevin Sears suspended
for an unspecified number of games – probably including the date with LSU – converted safeties Will Herring and Steve Gandy won’t
have much grace period to master their new positions. Bet now through the Greek, home of the 21 percent
sign up bonus

 

Akron-Penn State

CSTV

The biggest change for Penn State in ‘06 unquestionably is
at quarterback, where junior Anthony Morelli faces
the task of trying to replace Big Ten Offensive MVP Michael Robinson, who put
together a tremendous season in leading Penn State back. “Michael Robinson was
as good of a college football player and had as much of an impact on our
football team as any player I’ve ever coached in all the years I’ve been
around,” Paterno said. While Robinson will be missed,
there is a great deal of optimism surrounding the new junior quarterback, who
was Robinson’s backup last season, completing 13-of-20 passes for 155 yards and
a touchdown in occasional action. With the new quarterback though, you can
expect some things to change due to the different style of play by Morelli. “Last year, Robinson could run the option or do
something with his athletic ability to get us out of a jam,” Paterno said. “We don’t have that anymore. We have a
different type of back. We have a true quarterback that’s going to have to be
able to read coverages and him
and the offense have to get comfortable with each other and we’ll see what
happens.” “Morelli is more of a pocket passer so we’re
going to have to give him a little more time and we’ll have to adjust to that,”
Brown said. “We can’t just assume that if we mess up here, that Mike is just
going to run off with the ball because he’s not back there. Morelli
is back there. So, we’ll just have to give him more time and allow him to learn
the game.” Another question mark on Penn
State
will be its offensive line,
who must replace four starters from last season. Brown returns as the only
starter and will be looked upon to lead the unit. Bet now through the Greek, home of the 21
percent sign up bonus

 

Hawaii-Alabama

UWire

And last season, despite a 5-7 record, the Warriors showed
us a young offense loaded with talent. Colt Brennan emerged as the clear
starter and went on to lead the NCAA in passing yards, something Jones feels
will happen again this season. Freshman wide-receivers Davone
Bess and Ryan Grice-Mullen each posted 1,000-yard seasons and became impact
players. Once Nate Ilaoa
snapped into shape, he was a bruising running back that complimented Hawaii’s
aggressive passing game. Bet
the NFL now at -107 juice!
Check out the latest odds at CanBet.
 

 

Virginia-Pittsburgh

Post Gazette

The Panthers had the Big East Conference’s leading
receiver (yards per game) eight of the past nine
seasons and became the first school to produce two Biletnikoff
winners (Antonio Bryant and Larry Fitzgerald). This year’s group, however, has
not progressed as expected and, if things don’t improve in a hurry, Pitt could
easily be referred to as “Wide Receiver, Who?” The Panthers are set to finish
camp tomorrow and likely will do so with a depth chart at wide receiver that is
unsettled. And unlike other positions, such as the defensive line, where the
depth chart is cloudy because so many players have performed well, the receiver
position is unsettled because of inconsistency. Hill pointed out that the
receivers’ failure to progress as fast as he would like hasn’t
been completely about a lack of ability. There have been injuries—McGee (calf)
and Turner (ankle) have missed some time—and off-field issues—Porter left the
team for a day and senior Joe DelSardo has been
suspended for two weeks—that have hindered their progress as well. The group
also is extremely inexperienced—Kinder and DelSardo
are the only two with more than five receptions in a game. But the explanations
for the state of the receiving corps don’t erase the fact that there is a game
to be played in 11 days and the Panthers have only two receivers ready to play.
Bet now through the Greek, home of the 21
percent sign up bonus

Tuesday Sports Service Plays

Beat the odds betting information for Tuesday.

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Godspicks.com has a Wise Guy play among FIVE baseball winners.
More
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v KnockoutPicks.com  doubles the length of all purchases today and
they have 2 MLB plays to highlight. More details from
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Tuesday Godspicks



Tuesday, August 22, 2006

MLB Wise Guy alert—four winners in MLB including a
Wise Guy. Wise Guy plays from Godspicks are widely accepted by high rollers,
bookmakers, linesmakers, and fellow handicappers as the biggest play in the
handicapping abyss. This is just fact.

Remember with football here and college starting this
month, hop on one of our many long term packages now. That is if winning is important to
you.
 5-0 Tuesday
up now.

The ENTIRE card  is just $17 at www.godspicks.com. 

MLB

SAN
FRANCISCO

(CAIN
+110) Arizona (Webb) Bet now through the Greek, home of the 21
percent sign up bonus

The Gints have won 6-of-8. Arizona
has lost 4-of-5. Brandon Webb has a 5.86 ERA in his last four starts. Arizona
is hitting a horrible .222 their last seven games. The Giants are 16-7 at home
in the series.

Knockoutpicks Tuesday

8-22-06
Tuesday
special: Purchase the 1, 3, 7 or 31 day (monthly) package TODAY and it get it
automatically DOUBLED!

Stevie has 2 big
Vegas Insider plays for Tuesday to bail you out of the hole you made betting on
your own.
The
Great One
continues to turn the world on its heels and is the
best over/under advisors in the world. 
To make sure you are ready to jump on board, it’s 2-for-Tuesday. 2 big
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The Great One
free play> Cleveland/Kansas City UNDER

Forensic team and
pitching information on this game: last 3 appearances for each pitcher: Lee
12.77 walks/hits per game, 3.93 ERA, Perez 11.00 walks/hits per game, 

http://www.knockoutpicks.com/ 

I Want My MTV

WHO’S NEXT TO STEP IN LINE FOR THE MTV CURSE?

It’s official, what has been deemed the “MTV Curse”
by the celebrity gossip blogs is alive and well. Meet
the Barkers stars Travis Barker and Shanna Moakler are divorcing – right behind the tails of
Nick/Jessica and Carmen/Dave. Celebrity couples are not known for their shelf
life, but once they air their lives on national television the shelf life goes
from short to expired.

Analysts at BetCRIS.com
offered odds earlier today on which celebrity couple will walk the line next
when it comes to signing away their lives on MTV.

WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CELEBRITY COUPLE TO HAVE A REALITY SHOW ON MTV?

·       
DAVE NAVARRO AND JENNA JAMISON / 8 to 1

·       
BRAD PITT AND ANGELINA JOLIE
/ 15 to 1

·       
PAM ANDERSON AND KID ROCK / 7.85 to 1

·       
LANCE BASS AND REICHEN
LEHMKUHL / 6 to 1

·       
NICK LACHEY AND
VANESSA MINNILLO / 10 to 1

·       
TOM CRUISE AND KATIE HOLMES / 15 to 1

·       
TORI SPELLING AND DEAN
MCDERMOTT / 8 to 1

·       
JENNIFER ANISTON AND VINCE VAUGHN / 11 to 1

·       
AVRIL LAVIGNE AND DERYCK WHIBLEY / 9 to1

·       
REBECCA ROMIJN AND
JERRY O‘CONNELL / 14 to 1

·       
PARIS HILTON AND STAVROS
NIARCHOS / 12 to1

·       
NONE OF THE ABOVE / 1 to 50

“Why anyone would allow cameras to follow their every footstep is beyond me
– that’s a recipe for disaster,” said
CEO Mickey Richardson. “But in Hollywood
a lasting marriage doesn’t bring publicity or a television show.”