All posts by Joe Duffy

MasterLockLine Sunday

12-3-06

Headline: 3 OF THE 4 TOP
RANKED SERVICES NAIL THEIR GAMES OF THE YEAR YESTERDAY IN FOOTBALL.
You
know it’s legit because you got EVERY ONE OF THEM. Castlegate
Sports NFL Game of the Year today

Here is your locked
and loaded menu for Sunday, December
03, 2006

·       
Statmaven Sports is No. 1 all-time on as far as
plays that have risen to the level to be re-released. Rankings trace back to
the 976-LOCK scorephone days and are all-sports combined.  In other words, their highest rated plays
have proven since 1980 to be as good as any sports service.  They
have a totals system that is their No. 1 this year and among their top 15
all-time in the NFL. It’s 24-2 this year and applies three times

·       
Exclusive feature: We’ve developed
data mining software that finds out what happens when two or more top sports
services agree in the same side.
When
the top tipsheet and top Vegas based handicapper
agree, it’s 77 percent last three years. They agree today on Minnesota-Chicago

·       
Mon Valley Sports is 9-0 this year in picks involving
the Steelers.  They are 39-10 the last
four years. Game of the Month
Tampa-Pittsburgh.
They are 3-0 with Game of the Month plays

·       
Service hottest in the world! They are 24-1
their last 25.  Yesterday: Rutgers,
UCLA & under, San Jose under, San
Diego
State
, Wake
Forest
, Oklahoma
. Today San Francisco-New Orleans side and total, Arizona-St. Louis
over/under

·       
Top computer NFL. Detroit-New England side

 

 

 

Free pick: Mark the
Shark Game of the Week: Chargers

Key to rankings ALL BASED ON ONE UNIT PER PLAY—

ROI—based on units
risked versus units won ratio, minimum 50 units risked to qualify

Total net units
won—how much money a service won based on one unit per play including the juice

Winning
percentage—self explanatory, minimum of 50 plays in quoted category to quality
for rankings



MasterLockLine.com gives you the highest rated
plays from the highest rated handicappers in their highest rated sports. We
search our database of more than 620 handicappers from the Internet,
scorephones, television, 800 number late telephone services, 900 number
handicappers, tip sheets and other sources and give you their top plays more
times than not at a fraction of the cost. Please
note, in most cases we will not always release every top play from a specific
service, because in some cases such plays are cancelled out by other elite
service plays on the opposite side. These are top service plays that are
generally corroborated by other services and are not nullified by overwhelming
conflicting selections.

 


Sunday GodsTips

Sunday, December 03,
2006

65-39 NFL (MANY MONEYLINE DOGS), INCLUDING CINC THURS, 21-8 WISE GUYS, 4 WG
SUNDAY, 8 NFL IN ALL

No handicapper dominates any sport the way Joe Duffy’s
GodsTips does the NFL. We are 65-39 in the NFL and have eight winners in our specialty
including four Wise Guy plays.  We are
21-8 with Wise Guy plays in the NFL.

The windfall continues Sunday. Click now to
purchase

NFL

OAKLAND -3 Houston

This is a top dichotomous ATS and SU game.  We discount 98 percent of trends, but this
has proven to be the exception to the rule. Explained in our articles around
the Net, basically if a team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record or
visa versa, you ride for that to continue as it is the sign of which teams are
most under or overvalued.

Despite a 2-9 SU record, Oakland
has covered 6-of-7. They have as dominant of a defense as there is in the
league, giving up more than 17 points once the last seven weeks.  They allow just 4.9 yards per play to 5.3.

Now Oakland
gets the emotional lift Baltimore
got on offense—a new play caller.  It
will work short term.  It usually does.
“I think the guys wanted somebody else to be in charge of calling the plays,”
running back LaMont Jordan
said. “I guess you could say we got what we want. Now that puts even more
pressure on us as players. … Because if we don’t get this thing turned
around, then it becomes a thing where, ’Hey, it really wasn’t the play calling.
These players just can’t play.”’

 


Sunday News and Notes

Sunday, December 3,
2006

 

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
which is offering a
premium version
of the advanced news and notes, computer trends,
weather information and more for the entire bowl season. Much of the information is compiled from
hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. The entire bowl season
version of the OffshoreInsiders.com clipboard
is $69

NFL

Cowboys-Giants

MasterLockLine.com

From Cy McCormick: most of our
sharp NFL experts believe Eli Manning has struggled greatly since the Amani Toomer injury. They are 0-3
since his injury and he was Manning’s favorite target.

NY Times

Manning has the worst third-down passer rating in the N.F.L. His overall passer rating was a sturdy 87.5 when Toomer went down. In the past three games, his rating is a
dismal 46.4, and he has had his worst performances of the season. The team’s
passing offense, ranked 11th in the league three weeks ago, is now
18th. Manning has two touchdowns and six interceptions in the past
three games. Approved
sportsbooks are at
www.linetrackers.com

Journal Times

Giants Sam Madison picked a heck of a time to come back to
the starting lineup from a two-week absence with a re-strained right hamstring.
Some will say, hey, just in time. The Cowboys come to town tomorrow, and the
Giants need all the veterans possible as they attempt to retake first place in
the NFC East. The more pessimistic, though, say a tender hamstring is bad
enough, but throw in the task of covering Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens and it’s
just a matter of time before the thing goes “twang” again. Madison’s return provides an upgrade in more ways than one. It
allows R.W. McQuarters,
Madison’s fill-in during his two bouts with the hamstring strain,
to move over to left corner, where he will start while Corey Webster nurses
turf toe. Frank Walker, one of the most inconsistent cornerbacks in the league,
started last week in
Tennessee, where he gave up a touchdown and was called for a key
unnecessary-roughness penalty that Coughlin termed “stupid.” Joe Duffy’s sports
betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com

Buccaneers-Steelers

Post-Gazette

Even without Hines
Ward,
the Steelers’ passing game could still flourish against the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers. Ward, the AFC’s eighth-leading receiver with 57 catches, will
miss only his second start in nine seasons tomorrow after having arthroscopic
surgery to remove bone chips in his left knee Monday. That means Nate Washington, who has probably
distinguished himself more for his drops than his catches this season, will
make his first start against the Buccaneers. Washington, an undrafted
rookie in 2005, is fifth on the team with 27 catches, but he leads in yards per
catch (16.1) and is tied for second behind Ward with three touchdowns. But Washington
could be tied with Ward with six touchdown catches if he didn’t drop passes in
the end zone in games against Cincinnati,
New Orleans and Baltimore.
Of course, there was also that costly “flinch” at the end of regulation that prevented
the Steelers from attempting a winning field goal in Atlanta.

Tampa has given up 21 touchdown passes this season—tied
with Green Bay for most in the NFL—but have only managed five interceptions,
tied with the Saints for fewest in the league. The Steelers will be without
Ward and safety Troy Polamalu (knee), but the rest of their injured
players are expected to play against the Buccaneers. The lone exception is wide
receiver/punt returner Willie Reid (foot/questionable), who has missed the past seven
games.

Falcons-Redskins

Washington
Times

the Falcons not
only lost back-to-back to the Lions and Browns (3-17 against the rest of the
league) but followed with one-sided defeats to heavyweights Baltimore and New
Orleans. The latter 31-13 spanking was preceded by owner Arthur Blank
threatening major changes if Atlanta didn’t produce a winning season and was
punctuated by franchise player Vick’s now-infamous dirty bird salute to the
hecklers in the Georgia Dome crowd.  Injuries have hurt the defense which
added passrusher John Abraham and safeties Lawyer Milloy and Chris Crocker in
the offseason, but played without Abraham and middle linebacker Ed Hartwell for
eight games apiece. Atlanta’s defense is ranked 22nd, just as it was
last year. Stevie Vincent’s BetOnSports360.com
is pioneer in forensic handicapping and part of OffshoreInsiders.com
The Falcons are ninth
against the run and 11th in sacks but 30th against the
pass. The Falcons’ 3-4 NFC record is the worst of the conference’s five teams
that are 5-6 overall, putting them 11th in the race for six playoff
spots with three road games and home dates with contenders Dallas and Carolina
remaining. So Mora didn’t mince words when asked if tomorrow’s game against the
4-7 Washington Redskins is a must-win. “Yeah, we have to win it,” he said.

Washington Post

The only time the Redskins have won back-to-back games was
the third and fourth games of the season, when they beat Houston
and Jacksonville; those games
marked the high points on offense and defense.On
offense, the Redskins racked up 976 yards over those games — 495 against Houston
and 481 against the Jaguars. Against Jacksonville,
the Redskins played their most physical game offensively and Clinton Portis had his only 100-yard rushing outing of the season.
But the Redskins have sputtered since. They lost to the New York Giants, Tennessee
and Indianapolis leading to the
Oct. 29 bye weekend, and lost to Philadelphia
after an emotional victory at home against the Dallas Cowboys. Joe Duffy’s
sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com

Texans-Raiders

Houston Chronicle

Texans coach Gary Kubiak said Oakland’s
2-9 record is misleading, and the numbers seem to bear
that out. The last three weeks, the Raiders have four-point losses to Kansas
City
and Denver,
and a seven-point loss to San Diego.
If the playoffs began today, all three of those AFC West teams would be in the
postseason. Both of the Raiders’ wins (22-9 over Arizona
and 20-13 over Pittsburgh) have
come at home. Oakland has allowed
only 39 points in its last three home games and has given up more than 20
points just once in its last seven games.The Texans
are 29th in the league in scoring at 16 points a game. Texans
fullback Jameel Cook (knee) was downgraded to
questionable, but Gary Kubiak said his playing status would be a game-time
decision after a pregame workout on Sunday. The
Texans likely will have all three of their lead backs Wali
Lundy, Samkon Gado and Ron Dayne — on the active roster for the first time since the
third week of the season.

Jacksonville-Miami

Times Union

Jacksonville
completes its tour of the NFL on Sunday when it meets the Dolphins on the road
for the first time in franchise history. I’ve never played in South
Florida
my entire career,” said running back Fred Taylor, a
Pahokee native in his ninth NFL season. “So to go back home in front of family
and friends, I’m just ready to go man, sort of like the way I felt leading up
to that Philly game.” Taylor
notched one of his three 100-yard outings on Oct. 29 at Philadelphia,
averaging 6.9 yards per carry in a 13-6 Jags victory. But another stellar
performance from Taylor could be
tough, given the stinginess of Miami’s
fifth-rank run defense. Instead of worrying about the postseason, Taylor
said Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio told the club to have fun during its last five
regular-season contests. Jaguars cornerback Brian
Williams practiced Friday, but whether he starts against the Dolphins on Sunday
is still unknown. Williams said earlier in the week that he expected to play,
but backed away from speculating on Thursday. Second-year cornerback Scott
Starks took Williams’ place in the Jags starting lineup during Friday’s
practice. MasterLockLine.com has the top plays from the top
sports service in their highest ranked sports.
The Jaguars’ two
ailing cornerbacks appear to be healing and they could make a big difference in
the secondary against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Starting cornerback Brian
Williams and nickel back Terry Cousin, who were
sidelined in Buffalo last Sunday,
both practiced. Williams, who returned to practice after missing Wednesday’s
workout, remained questionable while Cousin, who has missed five weeks with a
torn groin muscle, practiced for the second consecutive day and was upgraded
from doubtful to questionable. With both Williams and Cousin out in Buffalo,
the Jaguars started rookie Dee Webb at cornerback and he was victimized on
three big plays that led to Buffalo’s
17 first-half points.

Sun Sentinel

Last year’s season-ending six-game winning streak and
offensive improvement coincided with then offensive coordinator Scott Linehan moving from the coach’s box to the sideline where
he could communicate directly with his players. This year’s offensive turnaround
seemed to begin with another shift of positions. Damion
McIntosh moved from right guard to his natural spot at left tackle, and
expensive offseason free-agent acquisition L.J.
Shelton slid over from left tackle to right guard, a position he never played
at any level. The offensive line has clicked since the swap was made prior to
Game 6 against the Jets. The average points have increased from 12.2 to 22.7.
Rushing yards have gone from 84.9 to 111.1 yards per game. Quarterback Daunte Culpepper was sacked a league-leading 21 times in
the first four games, but Joey Harrington has gone down just eight times over
the past seven games. Since the start of training camp, injuries, unfamiliarity
or poor play have combined to wipe out a group of guards, including Seth
McKinney, Joe Berger, Joe Toledo, Bennie Anderson, Kendyl
Jacox and McIntosh. It seemed to take two games,
losses to the Packers and Jets, for the revamped unit to bond. Harrington, who
took over for Culpepper the game before the line moves, has factored into the
offense’s rise from 24th to 16th, with his quick release
and midrange passing skills. Shelton
believes the line’s success correlates to playing with leads and remaining
committed to the running game. The Dolphins trailed or were tied at halftime in
their first six games (1-5) and have been ahead at halftime in the past four
games (4-0).

Jets-Packers

NY Post

The Jets practiced outside yesterday in the rotten
weather, as they often have done under Eric Mangini.
The head coach wants his team to be ready for whatever conditions it might
face, and the strategy has already paid dividends when the Jets went to New
England
and beat the Patriots on a wet, sloppy afternoon. There
was nothing, however, Mangini could do to replicate
the frigid temperatures or the remnants of the snowstorm that is hitting the Midwest
and is sure to leave some remnants when the Jets play the Packers.

Seahawks-Broncso

Seattle Post Intelligencer

Eleven games into the season, with his team battling for
its division title, Mike Shanahan is starting a rookie quarterback in Sunday
night’s game against the Seahawks. Jay Cutler is replacing veteran Jake Plummer.
Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com

49ers-Saints

SF Gate

Starting tight end Eric Johnson is likely out for the rest
of the season with a medial collateral ligament sprain in his left knee. He
sustained the injury in Wednesday’s practice when a player fell across his leg
while Johnson was blocking linebacker Manny Lawson. Replacement Vernon Davis,,
who the 49ers chose with the sixth overall choice in April’s draft, has the
potential to alter any offense. He has six catches for 48 yards and a touchdown
in his limited action.


Saturday Godspicks

Saturday, December 2,
2006

3 CFB
WISE GUY PLAYS, BIG MONEYLINE DOG AMONG 6 CFB WINNERS

Our football roll continues with Houston
in the colleges last night, but the big story is an incredible Saturday. We have three Wise Guy plays in college
football, plus a nice juicy Dandy Dog moneyline plays. Dandy dogs are moneyline
dogs of 140 or more. Hoops
inclusive in the morning.
We have a huge NFL Sunday in store as well, so
get the three-day pass at least. Click now to
purchase

CFB

Stanford-California UNDER 46

Stanford’s offense is nothing short of horrific. They get
4.1 yards per play against teams normally allowing 5.2. However their defense
is fine, especially against the pass, allowing 6.5 yards per play to 7.0.

True California’s
defense is bad, but Stanford won’t exploit it.


Saturday BetOnSports360.com

12-2-06

FIRST TIME EVER BLUE RIBBON PLAY
IN 3 SPORTS

Stevie Vincent, forefather of the revolutionary science of
forensic handicapping has not released a BLUE RIBBON CLUB release since
November 20, when he cashed in easily with Jacksonville
on MNF. Stevie absolutely loves the Saturday card so much that it is going to
be a historic betting day for you.  As it
turns out, for the first time ever, the Great One has BLUE RIBBON CLUB
releases in 3 sports: collegiate football, collegiate basketball and pro
basketball.

Stevie Vincent is the “King of Offshore” based on
unrivaled and incomparable winning! The King is giddy over the Saturday card
and so should you.  We give you all the
angles. Football sees angles (analysis included) of 23-4, 9-0, 41-13, 8-0, 23-4 among many. In basketball, forensic angles of 15-1,
7-0, 11-1, 12-0, 13-1 and so on.  No wonder the Great One is the most
talked about handicapper in the modern era.  Click now to
purchase

 COLLEGE FOOTBALL

>>>LEVEL 3 PLAY is on TCU
over Air Force

Forensic ATS information on this game: TCU
10-1 after consecutive conference games, 16-6 overall, 7-0 home after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game, 8-1 off
consecutive wins to conference, 10-2 favorite, 41-13 after allowing less than
100 yards rushing last game, Air Force 14-34 off conference loss, 5-16 after
three straight games committing one or fewer turnovers, 0-7 grass, 6-20 after
allowing more than 200 yards rushing last game,

 


Advanced News and Notes

Saturday, December 2,
2006

 

CFB

USC-UCLA

LA Times

After hinting for more than a week that sophomore Ben
Olson may return as the starter at quarterback against No. 2 USC on Saturday at
the Rose Bowl, UCLA Coach Karl Dorrell said Wednesday
that he was sticking with Patrick Cowan. Cowan will be making his seventh
consecutive start since Olson sustained a torn knee ligament against Arizona
on Oct. 7. He helped the Bruins defeat Arizona
and has played well in late-season wins over Oregon
State
and Washington
State
. “Pat has improved the last
six games,” Dorrell said. “He has a good feel of what
we’re doing. He understands the speed of the game a little bit better at this
point in time given that one has had a long time off and he’s been playing.
They are all strong factors.” Cowan has passed for more touchdowns and yards
this season, but Olson has completed a higher percentage of his passes. In the
end, the determining factor is that the coach wants to make sure that Olson,
who has not played in a game since returning to practice in late October, is at
full speed. Olson started the first five games of the season and was 3-1 in
games he finished. Dorrell said the decision does not
mean Cowan will start against Florida
State
in the Emerald Bowl on Dec.
27. MasterLockLine.com has the top plays from the top
sports service in their highest ranked sports. 
 
 

Florida-Arkansas

WholeHogsSports

Arkansas
coach Houston d the Razorbacks, their 10-game winning streak
broken by LSU, are hungry to erase the taste of defeat and have practiced like
it. “ When you win for 10 straight weeks, ” Nutt said, “ you’re not used to
that feeling that we’ve had. You don’t want to get used to losing ever. So we
were a little bit more hungry when we came to practice this week. ” Joe Duffy’s
sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com   

Rutgers-West
Virginia

NY Post

It’s hard to believe, but it’s nearly December and the
biggest game in Rutgers’ modern football history is just
two nights away. The 13th-ranked Scarlet Knights (10-1) will play 15th-ranked
West Virginia (9-2) Saturday in a
7:45 p.m. ESPN game in Morgantown
for a chance to clinch at least a share of the Big East championship and the league’s
BCS bid.

If Rutgers wins, the Knights most
likely will wind up playing the ACC champion, either Georgia Tech or Wake
Forest
, in the Orange Bowl on Jan.
2. Lose, and they will play a Big 12 entry – either Texas Tech or Oklahoma
State
– in the Dec. 28 Texas Bowl
in Houston. Stevie Vincent’s BetOnSports360.com is pioneer in
forensic handicapping and part of OffshoreInsiders.com
   

Associated Press

The Scarlet Knights, who have not defeated the
Mountaineers since 1994, have lost in each of their 14 trips to Morgantown.
West Virginia is the only Big
East team that Schiano has not defeated as coach of
the Scarlet Knights. His team is 4-27-2
all-time against the Mountaineers, including an 80-7 rout in 2001.West Virginia
is the only Big East team that Schiano has not
defeated as coach of the Scarlet Knights. His team is 4-27-2 all-time against the Mountaineers, including
an 80-7 rout in 2001. The Mountaineers are second in the nation with 312.1
rushing yards per game, and third with 38.7 points per contest. The Scarlet
Knights, however, are holding opponents to 243.5 total yards, good for third in
the nation, and 98.8 yards on the ground. Rutgers is
also allowing just 12.3 points per game, ranking it fifth in the country.

Army-Navy

Belvoir Eagle

The Army-Navy Classic returns to the city of Philadelphia
for the 80th time, pitting the 3-8 Black Knights opposite the 8-3
Midshipmen. Meineke Car Care Bowl-bound Navy can
clinch its fourth straight Commander in Chief’s Trophy title with a victory
over Army. The Black Knights will be looking to earn their first CIC title since 1996 with a win. Army will also be out to
avenge four consecutive losses to its arch rival, with Navy outscoring the
Black Knights by a combined 176-54 margin the last four years. The Midshipmen
can equal their longest winning streak in the series with a defeat of Army on
Saturday. Army must find a way to control’s Navy’s
top-rated rushing attack, which averages 333.2 yards per game. Saturday’s match
up will feature two of the nation’s least-penalized clubs. While Navy ranks
fifth nationally, averaging just 4.09 penalties per game, Army stands sixth at
4.18. Navy (35.27) and Army (37.09) list eighth and 12th,
respectively, in penalty yards per contest.

Connecticut-Louisville

Herald Tribune

Brohm threw four touchdown
passes last Saturday against Pittsburgh
in a 48-24 victory, Louisville’s
second straight since the upset loss to Rutgers
tightened the Big East race. The Huskies, coming off a 26-23 loss to Cincinnati
last Saturday, have dropped two straight and four of five. Approved sportsbooks are at www.linetrackers.com   

Stanford-California

Sarasota Herald Tribune

No. 21 Cal (8-3, 6-2 Pac-10) will be looking for their
fifth straight victory over Stanford (1-10, 1-7). The Bears haven’t done that
in their four straight wins over the Cardinal, outscoring them
126-32. While the Bears appear to be focused on knocking off their rival, they
will also be trying to end a two-game losing streak that cost them a chance at
their first Rose Bowl appearance in 48 years. Cal
fell 23-9 to then-No. 3 USC on Nov. 18, one week after losing
24-20 to
Arizona.


Thursday News and Notes

Thursday, November
30, 2006

 

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
which is offering a
premium version
of the advanced news and notes, computer trends,
weather information and more for the entire bowl season. Much of the information is compiled from
hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. The entire bowl season
version of the OffshoreInsiders.com clipboard
is $69.

NFL

Baltimore-Cincinnati

Associated Press

With a victory over Lewis’ Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday
night, the Ravens (9-2) would become the first team to clinch a division
championship this season. A victory in Cincinnati
would snatch the AFC North title away from the Bengals (6-5) and put the Ravens
on course for greater things. Some Ravens are miffed by the way receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh talked down to them the first time they
met this season. The Ravens won 26-20 on Nov. 5, but Houshmandzadeh wasn’t
about to give them any credit afterward. “Deep down, we know we’re better than Baltimore
and they know it,” Houshmandzadeh said. “We’ve got better players than they do.”
Houshmandzadeh isn’t backing down. “I think we’re better than them,” he said
Tuesday. “We’ll find out.”

That jarring loss in Baltimore
became a turning point for Cincinnati.
The offense finally got on a roll, with Carson Palmer throwing for nine
touchdowns in the last three games. For the first time in his career, he has
put up passer ratings above 120 for three games in a row.

CFB

Ohio-Central Michigan

Sports Network

Two teams making their first-ever appearance in the
Mid-American Conference championship game will clash this Thursday night at
Ford Field, as the Ohio Bobcats battle the Central Michigan Chippewas. The
Chippewas are coming off their best season since 1994 when the team finished
with a 9-2 ledger and claimed the MAC title. CMU’s season got off to a rough
start, as the team lost three of its first five games. Fortunately the
Chippewas were able to right the ship and closed out the season winning five of
their last six matchups, with the lone loss coming
against Northern Illinois, 31-10. The Chippewas possess
one of the most dangerous offensive units in the MAC in 2006, mainly because of
the team’s potent passing attack, which produced 247.2 ypg.
The success of the aerial assault has led to 29.2 ppg, which ranked the team
first in the MAC in scoring. Quarterback Dan LeFevour
is the biggest reason for the success, as the redshirt freshman had a
sensational season, completing 63 percent of his passes for 2,555 yards. Defensively, the Chippewas were not dominant by any
stretch of the imagination, however the unit did
enough to help produce victories. Overall the team surrendered 24 ppg, while
allowing the opposition to collect 353.2 total ypg.
The unit had some success against the run, permitting just 135.2 ypg, but the team’s weak spot came against the pass, as
opponents threw for 217.9 ypg.

CBB

Louisiana Monroe-Auburn

Press Notes

The Warhawk men’s basketball
team fell at the hands of the No. 6-ranked Crimson Tide of Alabama, 75-61, in Tuscaloosa,
Ala.
By playing at Alabama,
ranked No. 6 in the AP poll and 7 in the ESPN Coaches Poll, ULM has played two, top-10
opponents from the Southeastern Conference on the road. Auburn
is led by third-year head coach Jeff Lebo, who guided the Tigers to a 12-16
overall record last season, 4-12 in the Southeastern Conference’s West
division. Auburn is currently 5-2
on the year after a 92-87, come-from-behind overtime victory over Nicholls
State
on Tuesday. The Tigers return
four starters and seven letterwinners from their
2005-06 squad, including guard Frank Tolbert who is third on the team in
scoring with a 14.0 per game average. Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com

NBA

Pistons-Heat

Detroit Free Press

Miami returned
all of its key players from last year’s championship season. But a lot has
changed. The Heat is 6-8, with five losses by 15 points or more. Shaquille O’Neal
is out for another month after a knee operation. Guard Jason Williams is still
limited after off-season knee surgery. Dwyane Wade is
still scoring, but playing too many minutes after entering the season already
exhausted from playing for Team USA
in the World Championships. Gary Payton, 38, and Antoine Walker have struggled;
both have been benched at times by coach Pat Riley.
The Heat’s offense has struggled most. It ranks second-to-last in points scored
per game. MasterLockLine.com
has the top plays from the top sports service in their highest ranked
sports.

Jazz-Lakers

Salt Lake Tribune

About the Jazz: They are 5-2 on the road. They are 3-1 on
the second night of back-to-back games. They are 7-2 at home. They are in the middle of a stretch of 12 out
of 13 games in the Staples Center.
They have yet to travel east of Salt Lake City,
and won’t until Dec. 12.

 


Handicapping Net Yardage Means Net Winnings

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

The pioneer in forensic handicapping, Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com, once described
the success of his futuristic branch of handicapping being based on the
premise, “The linesmakers know what the public is thinking and are two steps
ahead of them. The sharp player knows what the linesmakers are thinking and is
three steps ahead of them.”

That is a fair characterization of what Mike Godsey, chief
football handicapper at Joe Duffy’s GodsTips has been doing for years. When we deliberate
and finalize our football selections, the statistics for me that top the list
are yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on each side of the ball
relative to the cumulative averages of that team’s opponents to date.

Godsey, one of the first Internet handicappers, uses a few
others, but net yardage margin measured against schedule strength tops the
list. Actual straight up wins and losses have little bearing on handicapping, a
fact that so few gamblers realize. At least 9-of-10 pointspread bettors have
little conception of the difference between picking which team will win
straight up and which teams will cover. In short, that’s what separates the men
from the boys in sports betting.

Furthermore, to our original point, odds are based in
great deal do to perception and such conception is effected most by straight up
record. Godsey uses “net yardage records” and collates it against SU record to
divulge deceptive straight up records and consequently as we like to say:
overvalued and undervalued teams. He also applies the actual positive or
negative margin of net yardage much in the same way other handicappers use
point margin of victory or loss.

Wins and losses can often be affected by aberrational
events like defensive or special teams touchdowns. Godsey’s research shows “Such fortune is
tougher to duplicate game after game by the beneficiary or is much less likely
to be repeated against the victim of such fate.”

Of course as all good gamblers do, Godsey considers many
other factors. But while those who subsidize the books overassess wins, losses
and points margin, Godsey is using much more circumstantiated data. With net yardage topping his list of
statistical derivatives, it’s no wonder he’s topping the list of net winnings.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
which is offering a
premium version
of the advanced news and notes, computer trends,
weather information and more for the entire bowl season. Much of the information is compiled from
hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. The entire bowl season
version of the OffshoreInsiders.com clipboard
is $69.


Wednesday Computer Trends

Wednesday, November
29, 2006

 

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
which is offering a
premium version
of the advanced news and notes, computer trends,
weather information and more for the entire bowl season. Much of the information is compiled from
hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. The entire bowl season
version of the OffshoreInsiders.com clipboard
is $69

CBB

Ohio State-North Carolina

Press Notes

Ohio State
will be participating in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge for the fifth-consecutive
year. Ohio State
first participated in the event during the 2002-03 season
against Duke in Greensboro, N.C.,
a 91-75 Blue Devils’ victory. Georgia Tech traveled to Ohio
State
in 2004 and won 73-53. The
Buckeyes traveled to Clemson in 2004-05 and fell to the Tigers, 80-73. Ohio
State
defeated Virginia Tech in Columbus
a year ago, 69-59, for its first victory in the event. The last time Ohio State
was ranked No. 1 in either the coaches or media men’s basketball poll was
against Cincinnati (3/24/62) in a loss to the No. 2-ranked Bearcats (71-59) in
national title game in Louisville, Ky. Ohio State is 49-3 all-time as the No. 1
team (AP). Ohio State’s
last four games as the No. 1 team have been played on neutral courts. The
Buckeye’s last true road game as the No. 1 team was a loss at Wisconsin
(3/3/62), 86-67. North
Carolina
enters the game ranked No. 6/7. Ohio
State
is 45-36 all-time when
playing in a game in which both teams are ranked. The Buckeyes are 201-51 when
playing with an AP Top 10 ranking. Ohio
State
is 300-91 when playing with
an AP Top 25 ranking.

Iowa-Virginia Tech

Press Notes

Iowa (2-3) concludes
a five-game road swing Wednesday, Nov. 29 at Virginia Tech (3-2) as part of the
annual ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Game time is 6:05
p.m. CT
at VTU’s Cassell
Coliseum (9,847). Iowa dropped a
67-64 contest at Arizona State
Nov. 25 in its last outing after posting a 1-2 record in the Paradise Jam. Iowa
defeated Toledo 78-65 in the first
round before losing to 10th-ranked Alabama
72-60 in the semi-finals and Villanova 89-60 in the consolation round. Virginia
Tech is 3-2 on the season after dropping two of three games in the Old Spice
Classic in Florida. The Hokies
defeated lost to Southern Illinois 69-64 Sunday after a
77-56 win over Montana and a
71-68 loss to Western Michigan. Iowa
holds a 2-3 record in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, including a 2-0 record at
home, an 0-1 record on the road and an 0-2 record at
neutral sites. Iowa lost to Maryland
in Baltimore in 2000 before
defeating Georgia Tech in Iowa City
in 2001. Iowa lost to Duke at the
United Center
in Chicago in 2002 and lost at Florida
State
in 2003. The Hawkeyes
defeated North Carolina State
45-42 in Iowa City a year ago. Iowa
did not participate in the event in 2004 and 2005.

Miami (Oh)-Xavier

Press Notes

Xavier is off to a 4-1 start with its lone loss to Alabama,
55-63, in its final game of the Paradise Jam. In its most recent game, Xavier
collected an 86-68 win against American on Saturday. Wednesday marks the 94th
meeting between Miami and Xavier
with the Musketeers holding a 48-45 edge in the all-time series. When playing
on Xavier’s home court, the Musketeers are 30-17 against the RedHawks. Last season, the Musketeers posted a 75-65 win at
Millett Hall. The last time the teams met at the Cintas Center
(Nov. 22, 2004), Miami
collected a 66-54 win to snap a seven-game losing skid on Xavier’s home court. Miami
University
’s men’s basketball team
continues a four-game road stretch when it travels to Xavier. Illinois,
which entered its Nov. 24 game against the RedHawks
averaging 81.2 ppg, 41.2 rpg and shooting .511 from
the field, was bothered by a persistent RedHawk
defense which gave up just 51 points to the Illini,
out-rebounded them by six boards and held them to 37.8 percent shooting from
the field. It also was the smallest margin of victory for Illinois
this season, with no team getting within 20 points of the Illini
in their previous five wins. Rutgers’ 44 points against Miami
on Nov. 25 marked the fifth time this season the RedHawks
have restricted an opponent to less than 60 points. The previous day, Miami
held Illinois, which was
averaging over 80 points per game, to 51 points. Over the past three seasons, Miami
has confined opponents to less than 60 points 33 times, including 16 times last
season.

Virginia-Purdue

Associated Press

Virginia
(4-0) played each of its first four games at the John Paul Jones Arena, which
opened this year. They christened the arena with a 93-90 victory over then-No.
10 Arizona on Nov. 12, and won
their next three games by an average of more than 25 points. The Cavaliers
entered the rankings this week for the first time since Dec. 27, 2004. However, Virginia
now hits the road, where it went 2-11 last season. The
Cavaliers haven’t won more than three road games in a season since going 5-6
away from home in 2000-01.Virginia has managed to win its first road game in
each of the last three seasons, including 2003-04 and 2004-05, when it also
opened with four home games.

Clemson-Minnesota

Scout.com

Clemson has a 5-2 record in the ACC vs. Big Ten Challenge.
Only Duke (7-0) and Wake Forest
(6-1) have a better record. Clemson has won its first
seven games for the second straight year. The Tigers won their first 11 games
last year.

Rutgers-Temple

Press Notes

The Owls lead the all-time series with the Scarlet
Knights, 31-18, however, Rutgers has won five of the
last six meetings including four straight. Last season, Temple
got a 67-53 win at the RAC.

Kent-Cleveland State

Press Notes

The Golden Flashes (4-2) had their two-game winning streak
snapped in heartbreaking fashion Saturday night, falling at Butler
University
83-80 in a thrilling
double-overtime classic. Cleveland State (4-3) has won three straight and is
off to its best start since 1999-98 in its first season under the direction of
Waters, who coached the Golden Flashes for five seasons from 1996-2001, leading
KSU to its first two NCAA Tournament
appearances. Most recently the Vikings
picked up a 59-53 road win at the University
of Delaware
on Sunday. Kent
State
leads the all-time series
between the two schools, 24-18, and has won six straight against the
Vikings. The Flashes are 3-2 all-time at
the Wolstein Center and won last year’s meeting in
Kent by an 83-68 score (Dec. 3, 2005).