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Thursday GodsTips

Thursday, December 21, 2006\

NON STOP WINNING
CONTINUED LAST NIGHT 3-1

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NBA

DETROIT +3 Cleveland

We mentioned from the beginning that Cleveland
would be tough to get good value on. This is a top dichotomous ATS and SU
game. We discount 98 percent of trends,
but this has proven to be the exception to the rule. Explained in our articles
around the Net, basically if a team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record
or visa versa, you ride for that to continue as it is the sign of which teams
are most under or overvalued.

They are 11-2 SU home, yet under .500 where it
counts. They are four games over .500
overall SU, but six games under in the wallet. Detroit
is 12-3 their last 15 SU. Cleveland
has lost two straight.

 

 


Thursday News and Notes

Thursday, December
21, 2006

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
which is offering a
premium version
of the advanced news and notes, computer trends, weather
information and more for the entire bowl season. Much of the information is compiled from
hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. The entire bowl season
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is $69.

NFL

Vikings-Packers

Hendersonville News

Minnesota
will give Tarvaris Jackson his first NFL start on Thursday, turning the season
over to the untested quarterback from Division
I-AA Alabama State

after a series of inconsistent performances from Brad Johnson. Favre has made a
quarterback-record 255 consecutive starts, and he’s been at his best at home,
going 88-29 at Lambeau Field. Green Bay
is 40-5 under Favre at home when the game-time temperature is below 35 degrees
– temperatures are expected to be in the 30s with a chance for rain and snow
when Thursday’s game kicks off. After throwing 20 touchdown passes and a
career-worst 29 interceptions during a 4-12 season in 2005, the worst of Favre’s tenure, he’s bounced back this season to throw only
15 picks as the Packers have rebounded from a 1-4 start to join the NFC playoff
hunt. Green Bay and Minnesota
can still make the playoffs as a wild card, but both teams need help. They’re
one game behind the New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons, who at 7-7 are tied
for the NFC’s final wild-card spot.

CFB

BYU-Oregon

Pahrump Valley News

Stadium officials added 4,000 seats to the home of the UNLV Rebels to accommodate a huge contingent of fans who
back the No. 19-ranked Cougars, 10-2. About one-fourth of the fans at the game
(ESPN 5 p.m.) will be supporting Oregon,
7-5. BYU is led by quarterback John Beck, a 6-2,
216-pound senior who has completed 261 of 371 passes for 319.6 yards per game,
30 touchdowns, with only six interceptions. Both teams have respectable running
games, with Jonathan Stewart (5-11, 234 sophomore)
leading Oregon with 960 yards and
10 touchdowns on 176 rushes. Curtis Brown (6, 203, senior) paces BYU with 184 attempts, 890 yards and five
TDs. Jon Hartline (6-4,
238, senior)
has 49 catches for 754 yards and 11 TDs
to lead the BYU receiving corps. Jaison
Williams (6-5, 243, sophomore) has 68 receptions for 984 yards and six
touchdowns. Dennis Dixon, a 6-4, 196 junior, is expected to start at
quarterback for Oregon. He is
187-for-302 with 184 yards per game passing. He’s thrown for 11 touchdowns, but
has tossed 12 interceptions.

BYU averages 36.7 ppg, while the
Ducks scored 31.2. Defensively, the Cougars have a huge edge, allowing only
15.2 ppg, compared to 25.6 for Oregon.

Press Notes

Since 1996, BYU has played in four bowl games. The Cougars are
currently riding a nine-game winning streak, good for
third longest in the nation (
Ohio State and Boise State). BYU is coming off
one of the most exciting games in the programs’ history that saw the Cougars
come from behind to beat Utah on the last play of the game—a play that took
over 10 seconds before quarterback John Beck found Jonny
Harline alone in the end zone with no time on the
clock.
Oregon started the season winning five of its first
six games, including a 34-33 victory over No. 15 Oklahoma. The Ducks, who were
ranked as high as 11th in the nation this season and remained in the
top 25 for three months, finished their season 7-5 overall and 4-5 in league
play.

Salt
Lake Tribune

BYU hasn’t won a bowl game since
it beat Kansas State
19-15 in the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 1,
1997
, to finish No. 5 in the national rankings. The Cougars have
dropped four straight postseason matchups since,
including last year’s 35-28 loss to California
here. Oregon is 0-3 in bowl games
since it downed Colorado 38-16 at
the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 1, 2002.
Bellotti said losses to Oklahoma
(17-14) in the 2005 Holiday Bowl and Minnesota
(31-30) in the 2003 Sun Bowl came on last-second plays, while the 38-17 setback
to Wake Forest
in 2002 was a legitimate butt-kicking. “We
easily could have won two of those three,” he said. The Cougars can’t say that. They’ve lost the
last four bowl games by an average score of 31-17. Because of their bowl futility, the Ducks
insist this is an important game for them. They say they won’t be merely going
through the motions because they missed out on going to the Rose Bowl, which
takes the Pac-10 champion.

 

 

 


GodsTips For Wednesday

Wednesday, December
20, 2006

6-3 THIS WEEK, TWO WISE GUY NIGHT PLAYS

Anyone who cares about unceasing winning is a permanent
client of Joe Duffy’s GodsTips. For
those not yet on the permanent money train, we are 6-3 this week, a cool 67
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wee hours.

But America’s
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NBA

INDIANA -6 Philadelphia

Among the many reasons we are truly the Industry Standard is that we don’t
blindly bet systems. Some we disregard
under the right circumstances, others we realize the reasons behind a system
working can apply, even if the pure parameters do not.

A five point or more road favorite of a SU loss as a dog
is more than a 60 percent play since 1983. For a team to be more than a
five-point road favorite, you are almost always talking about a superior team
against a greatly inferior. For that
superior team to have been a dog the previous game, they likely were playing
another top-notch team. So it says that
a superior team loses to another superior team and takes out their frustrations
on the inferior team.

Again, Indiana
lost as a 1.5 home favorite, but we believe the basic premise follows. The superior team has the motivation to run
weakened Philly into the ground. They
will.


Bowl Breakdowns, Part 2

This is Part-2 where the Center of the Handicapping
Universe Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com breaks down the statistical comparisons of
the bowl games. This report entails games of December 26-28.

Middle Tennessee State-Central
Michigan

·       
Central Michigan gets 84
more total yards per game on offense, though MTSU has
a small 10.9 yards per game edge offensively

·       
CMU leads offensively in rushing yards per
attempt by .4, passing yards per attempt by 1.5 and completion percentage by
7.0

·       
Middle Tennessee
allows 16.7 less rushing yards per game but Central Michigan
has a slight edge in passing defense at 8.5

·       
CMU allows 1.5 less passing yards per attempt
and 3.3 less passing yards per reception

 

Florida State-UCLA

·       
The teams are nearly dead even offensively with
FSU getting 29.2 more passing yards per game and UCLA 28.6 rushing yards per
game

·       
Defensively FSU allows 1.8 less first downs per
game and 25.9 fewer yards per game

·       
FSU has a small edge in most defensive
categories

·       
UCLA has a mammoth turnover ratio edge of 16

 

Oklahoma State-Alabama

·       
Offensively OSU gets
3.4 more first downs per game

·       
OSU averages 68.1 more
total yards per game on offense, led by an 83.7 rushing yards per game edge

·       
The Cowboys lead in passing yards per attempt by
1.6, passing yards per attempt by 1.1 and passing yards per reception by 2.5

·       
Alabama
completes 2.6 percent more of the pass attempts

·       
Alabama
allows 6.4 fewer first downs per game

·       
The Crimson Tide has a defensive advantage of
83.8 total yards per game on 32.2 rushing yards per game and 51.7 passing

·       
Alabama
allows 5.2 less pass completion percentage

 

Kansas State-Rutgers

·       
Rutgers gets 2.2 more
first downs per game

·       
The Scarlet Knights average 55.4 more rushing
yards per game

·       
Kansas
State
has the passing yards per
game edge by 49.5

·       
Rutgers has the upper
hand in both rushing yards per attempt by .5 and passing yards per attempt by
.6

·       
Rutgers completes 3.5
percent more of the pass attempts

·       
On defense, Rutgers
allows 74.8 less total yards per game

·       
Rutgers allows .9 less
rushing yards per attempt

·       
Kansas
State
gets the defensive advantage
in passing yards per reception by 1.2

·       
Rutgers allows a
completion percentage of 6.3 less

·       
The Scarlet Knights turnover ratio edge is 8

 

Texas A&M-California

·       
Texas A&M gets 54.3 more rushing yards per
game but Cal gets 63.8 more
passing yards

·       
Most other offensive categories are close, but
the Aggies have a 3.0 completion percentage upper
hand on offense

·       
Defensively A&M allows 57.8 less total yards
per game

·       
The Aggies allow 1.0
less passing yards per attempt and 1.3 less passing yards per reception

 

Get the winners on each game from the top experts at OffshoreInsiders.com


Liverpool Ascending

Liverpool Ascending

By Anthony Marinetti
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

After a 3-0 drubbing at the hands of Arsenal on Nov. 12, Liverpool has gotten its act together in a big way.

Undefeated in its past seven Premier League matches and not conceding a goal in that span, Liverpool is suddenly holding down third position and nipping at the heels of sputtering Chelsea.

Not only is the club playing tough on defense, but it is also scoring plenty of goals, putting up 11 in its past three matches. The balance being displayed is a recipe for success and has Coach Rafael Benitez very pleased.

“We have better balance now,” said Benitez after Liverpool’s 3-0 win over Charlton on Saturday. “We have the balance between defense and attack, we are creating a lot of chances, and we don’t give too many chances away.”

The victory is also significant because it is Liverpool’s second straight away win, and the Reds have struggled mightily on the road thus far this season. The trend has been rather frustrating, so a decisive win at The Valley feels very good.

Steven Gerrard is obviously much more effective back in his central midfield role, scoring a brilliant goal in the 88th minute vs. Charlton. The elevated play of Dirk Kuyt has also been instrumental in the Reds’ resurgence. In his first season with Liverpool, the Dutch international has taken awhile to find his form, but is now the perfect complement for the likes of fellow strikers Peter Crouch and Craig Bellamy. Though Kuyt has yet to score this campaign, his partnership with Bellamy up top has proven to be very effective.

So where does Liverpool go from here? The club has a two-month respite from Champions League play as it moves to the round of 16, where it will face defending champ Barcelona in February. This is a good thing for the Reds, as they have a grueling Premier League schedule coming up, with four fixtures in a mere eight days. That stretch begins Saturday when Liverpool hosts Watford and is a big -450 favorite on WagerWeb.com.

Liverpool must pick up six points in the first two games of the run over struggling Watford and Blackburn, because it may be low on energy by the time the big match vs. Bolton rolls around.

Liverpool is certainly confident it can continue to score many goals.

“It was a good game,” Benitez said in reference to the Charlton match. “We created a lot of opportunities and scored three goals, but we could have scored more.”

If Rafa continues to manage his lineup as he has in recent weeks, the odds look good for Liverpool. Being able to rotate Bellamy, Crouch and Kuyt at forwards is a luxury that should keep paying dividends, and with Gerrard poised for more production in central midfield, the Reds are a favorite to finish in the top three at season’s end.

Eagles Soaring Behind Garcia

Eagles Soaring Behind Garcia

By Tim Sullivan
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

As it turns out, Jeff Garcia isn’t quite finished just yet. He just needs a supporting cast around him, that’s all.

He had one in San Francisco, and became a Pro Bowler. He didn’t have one in Cleveland and Detroit, and became expendable.

But he has one in Philadelphia — a running back, a tight end, a quality line and a host of young, hungry receivers. And as a result, he is 3-1 as a starter and has the Eagles (8-6) in the No. 1 wild-card slot in the NFC, should the season end today.

“It has been a lot of fun,” Garcia said. “A year ago, I really was not thinking that this could happen for me.”

But to steal an overused cliche, what a difference a year makes. When Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb went down last month, it appeared the season would go with him.

After all, that’s what happened last season when Mike McMahon took over for McNabb.

But the thing is, Garcia isn’t McMahon. He is a mobile, accurate, sturdy, ad-libbing quarterback who has made the most of his opportunity. Leading the Eagles to a 36-22 victory over the Giants on Sunday, Garcia marched the Eagles 80 yards with relative ease for the winning score in the fourth quarter.

Now, the Giants’ defense completely collapsed around him. But, either way, he did make plays, he did silence the crowd, and who knows, he may have buried the Giants once and for all.

“It was about togetherness as a team. It was about having fun as a team and winning as a team,” Garcia said. “That was really what it was about. There were times when the defense had to step up and come up with a big play. There were times when the offense had to do their thing. There were times when special teams had to do their thing. When you talk about an all-out effort, that was really what we got.”

They’ll need another one on Christmas Day. That’s when they play the Cowboys (9-5) in Dallas in a game that could — and probably will — decide the NFC East. Monitor the line all week on WagerWeb.com. By the way, something tells us that Garcia will have a huge hand in the game, win or lose.

“He is a competitive little son of a gun. Thirty-six years old; I’m glad he has that amount of energy at thirty-six, but that can be trouble at times,” Eagles coach Andy Reid said. “He’s bounced back and played well.”

And of course, let the storylines begin as Terrell Owens and Garcia face each other as opponents this week. The former 49ers tandem had a few too many rifts during the years in the Bay Area, and this seems like a perfect week to dig them all up.

But the Eagles, quite frankly, don’t care.

“Jeff has done a great job. I’ve said it pretty much for three weeks now that he’s been in there,” running back Brian Westbrook said. “He comes in, he doesn’t make many mistakes, he runs this offense, he leads the team, and with him back there we have a chance of winning and that’s what we need.”

We’ll see if he can keep it up.

BREAK UP THE BILLS: As long as we’re digging up old sports cliches, how about the standard: “This is a team you do not want to play down the stretch.” If you’ve heard this one lately, chances are it was in connection with the Bills (7-7), who have won four of five and just posted their first shutout of the season, a 21-0 whitewash of the Dolphins.

It’s too bad Buffalo isn’t in the NFC, or else it would be alive and well. As it is, the Bills have been reduced basically to spoilers. But, let’s face it, they’ve been pretty good at it. And the biggest reason might just be quarterback J.P. Losman, who has thrown for seven touchdowns in the past three weeks.

“When you have your quarterback in control of everything,” receiver Lee Evans said, “it helps your offense out a lot.”

Buffalo plays host to Tennessee (7-7) Sunday. Monitor the line all week on WagerWeb.com.

EXTRA POINTS: Don’t buy into the Jake Delhomme Era coming to an end in Charlotte, a rumor that made the rounds over the weekend. Even if John Fox drafts a quarterback, it probably won’t be until late in the draft. And let’s face it, Delhomme has taken an expansion franchise to two NFC title games in a three-year span. … Backup QB Tarvaris Jackson could get the call for Minnesota on Thursday night against Green Bay, in place of Brad Johnson.

Strong Brawl Suspensions

Brawl Suspensions

By Marty Gitlin
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

Madison Square Garden has long been known as a fight site.

Ali-Frazier. Louis-Marciano. Hagler-Robinson.

These famed brawls were inside a ring and the combatants wore gloves.

Not so Saturday night. The Nuggets had landed a haymaker on the Knicks in a game of basketball, then a boxing match broke out. No bell sounded before New York reserve Mardy Collins grabbed a driving J.R. Smith by the neck and yanked him down to the floor.

That’s when all hell broke loose. By the time order was restored, all 10 players on the court had been ejected, including Denver scoring machine Carmelo Anthony, who landed a punch on Collins, and New York guard Nate Robinson, who battled Smith in the stands.

The result, announced Monday, is that Anthony has been suspended for 15 games, while Smith and Robinson will be gone for 10 games each. The two Nuggets have combined to average nearly 50 points a game this season.

Other suspended are Collins (six games), Jeffries (four games), Denver forward Nene and New York center Jerome James (one game each for leaving the bench). All the suspensions start tonight, when Denver hosts Washington and New York hosts Utah.

In addition, both organizations have been fined $500,000.

NBA Commissioner David Stern cited several factors in determining the severity of the fines and suspensions.

“Teams will be held accountable for the actions of their employees – management and players alike,” he said. “Players must take advantage of a break or pause in a heated situation to stop and restore order, instead of escalating the situation. Players must heed directions from referees and others who are trying to maintain order and not continue to put fans, referees and peacemakers in harm’s way.”

The uncertainty surrounding both games had prevented WagerWeb.com from posting odds by early Monday afternoon, but expect the Nuggets-Wizards line to be much different than it would have been because of the suspensions and …

ARENAS BURNING UP ARENAS: Wherever Gilbert Arenas plays these days, explosions follow.

But Sunday night was ridiculous.

The Washington guard scored a franchise- and personal-high 60 points in a 147-141 overtime victory in Los Angeles against the Lakers. It marked Washington’s third road win of the season. Arenas scored 14 consecutive points during one sizzling stretch.

Arenas has pulled the Wizards out of an early-season slump. He is averaging 38.7 points in his last seven games while shooing 49 percent from the field.

The performance against the Lakers marked the highest point total by a Washington player since guard Earl (The Pearl) Monroe scored 56 in a 1968 game, coincidentally, against Los Angeles.

DRIBBLES: New Orleans is losing games on the court and players off it. Guard Peja Stojakovic has already missed nine games with what was believed to be back spasms, but has now opted for back surgery. He’s averaging 17.1 points a game and shooting 41 percent from 3-point range. Forward David West will undergo surgery on his right elbow. Top reserve Bobby Jackson has also been out with a cracked rib. The decimated Hornets play at Miami on Monday night and are 7.5-point underdogs, according to WagerWeb.com. … It could have been worse for Toronto point guard Jose Calderon, who was removed from Sunday’s win at Golden State on a stretcher after hurting his lower back going for a rebound. His neck was immobilized, but he had movement in all his limbs and is now listed as day-to-day. The Raptors have won three straight games despite the loss of Chris Bosh (left knee injury). … Orlando rookie guard J.J. Redick has finally received a bit of playing time due to injuries. He has played 50 total minutes in four games and is averaging 2.8 points a game. He has hit just 4 of 15 shots from the field.

Sunday Tailgate

9:16:37 AM Godstips adds steam! Nine NFL winners from the greatest NFL handicapper in the world
Chi: Mushin Muhammad game time decision
NO: Horn very doubtful
Tenn: Henry, White both game time decisions
Min: Taylor will start
Cle: Derek Anderson starts at QB
Car: Weinke gets start at QB
Weather:
Buffalo 30 percent chance of rain at kickoff, wind 12 mph

BetonSports360.com Sunday

12-16-06

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PRO FOOTBALL

>>>LEVEL 3 PLAY is
on NY GIANTS over Philadelphia

Forensic ATS information on this game: NY Giants 8-0 team
averages more than 350 yards per game, 7-0 opponent averages more than 5.65
yards per play, 9-1 after allowing more than 250, 57-19 after allowing less
than 90 yards, Philadelphia 1-8 after a win of six or less, 4-11 road


Sunday News and Notes

Sunday, December 17, 2006

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NFL

Jets-Vikings

Journal News

Jets QB Chad Pennington has a career-high 15
interceptions, including four in the last two games. Pennington and the Jets’
passing game will be crucial Sunday at Minnesota
because the Vikings’ defense is allowing an NFL-low 54.1 rushing yards per
game.

Browns-Ravens

Gainesville Sun

The Ravens (10-3) lead the division by two games over Cincinnati
and if they win Sunday and the Bengals lose at Indianapolis
on Monday night, will be division champions for the second time in team
history. Baltimore also won the
division in 2003, the last time it made the playoffs. Even if Baltimore
loses to Cleveland (4-9), something
that doesn’t happen very often, it can still clinch a playoff spot through a
multitude of other scenarios. Since leaving Cleveland
for Baltimore after the 1995
season, the Ravens are 10-5 against the team that replaced them. The Ravens
have won six of their last seven games and are tied with Indianapolis
for the second-best record in the AFC. Baltimore
is 5-1 at M&T Bank Stadium this season and has
won 15 of its last 19 home games in December. As the
Ravens continue to win, quarterback Steve McNair seems to grow more comfortable
in the offense. He has completed 68.1 percent of his passes and thrown for
eight touchdowns in his last seven games, and didn’t throw an interception in
six of those contests. McNair has thrown nine touchdowns passes and only one
interception in his last five starts against the Browns, posting a 98.6 passer
rating. The Ravens are first in the NFL in total defense, allowing 268.1 yards
per game.
Baltimore has allowed a league-low 170 points and has held Cleveland to 14 points or less in 10 of their 15 all-time meetings. The
Browns, who have lost eight consecutive road games to division opponents, are
trying to avoid a winless season against AFC North teams.

Dolphins-Bills

Gainesville Sun

Miami and Buffalo,
both 6-7, resurfaced in the crowded conference race after convincing victories
over East opponents last Sunday. Neither team can clinch a berth with a win
this week, but both can improve their positioning. The
Dolphins, who have won five of their last six games, recorded their first
shutout in six seasons with a 21-0 home victory over division-leading New
England
last Sunday. It was the 10th time this season
that Miami has held an opponent to
20 points or fewer. Taylor and
safety Yeremiah Bell combined for 15 tackles and two
sacks as Miami’s second-ranked
defense held the Patriots to a season-low 189 yards. The Dolphins allow 278.2
yards per game.

Steelers-Panthers

Steelers.com

The Steelers know they have an uphill battle if they are
going to get into the post-season, as they not only have to win their last
three games, but a variety of other things have to happen as well.

Charlotte Observer

Carolina Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme, recovering from a torn ligament in his right thumb,
tried to throw before Friday’s practice, but had problems with the thumb and
didn’t participate. He hasn’t practiced all week, making it likely that backup Chris Weinke, who
played last week against the New York Giants, will start again Sunday when the
Panthers meet Pittsburgh at Bank of
America Stadium.

Eagles-Giants

Philadelphia Daily News

Eagles revenge for one of worst
loses in history. Had they not blown a 24-7 fourth-quarter lead in that Sept.
17 game and lost, 30-24, in overtime, the Eagles would be 8-5, unbeaten in the
NFC East. And had the game not gone into overtime, they would not have lost
their most dominant defensive player, Jevon Kearse, to a season-ending knee injury.

Jaguars-Titans

Tennessean

Heading into Sunday’s rematch with the Jaguars (8-5), the
Titans (6-7) have won four games in a row. The Titans have consistently ranked
in the NFL’s bottom five in run defense this season. They’re currently ranked
28th, allowing 140.9 yards per game, and have allowed four 100-yard
rushers this season. Only twice this season have the Titans held the opposition
to under 100 yards rushing. That’s the same number of times they’ve allowed
200-plus rushing yards, although both those games (San
Diego
, Dallas)
were early in the season. Since Haynesworth’s return
on Nov. 19, the Titans have shown some improvement. Sunday, however, they face
a Jaguars team that rolled to 375 rushing yards against the Colts last week.
The Titans seemingly hit rock bottom in the passing game against the Jaguars on
Nov. 5, when Young had three interceptions in a 37-7 loss.

Young’s worst game was probably the following week in a
win against the Eagles, when he went 8-of-22 and was nearly intercepted several
times. Since then, however, he has improved. His completion percentage over the
last three weeks is 65.2, and he’s been over 60 percent the last three weeks.
He never surpassed 60 in his first seven starts.