All posts by Joe Duffy

Alleged Mafia Boss Heads $1 Billion Syndicate

An alleged Mafia underboss was running a sport bookmaking syndicate through which almost $500 million flowed in a period of only 11 months.
Police say Francesco del Balso, 36, ran 25 bookmaking operations in Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto that del Balso himself boasted did more than $1 billion in business.
In Quebec, del Balso and his partner Lorenzo Giordano, 43, operated Internet and telephone sports gambling out of houses in Kahnawake, Montreal and Laval.
According to newly released court documents, the bookmaking shop in Kahnawake did $391.9 million in business from December 2004 to November 2005.
Of that amount, the gamblers lost $165,469,210 and won $147,829,478, according to an accounting study made by gambling expert Andy Durno.
All the bets were made through a website called World Sport Centre (betwsc.com).
Police say del Balso paid out $750,000 in operating costs, leaving him with a profit of about $17 million.
Many of the bettors were given lines of credit and codes with which to make their bets online. Del Balso had his finger on every aspect of the business.
Del Balso controlled the books, recovered money from losers and paid off winners, established credit margins and decided who was allowed to place bets and get credit, police say.
Collecting from losers was often the hardest job. Del Balso complained that while he paid his winners immediately, losers generally took some persuasion.
Wiretaps picked up del Balso griping about gambler Stewart (Stuey) Goldstein, who apparently owed del Balso $1.6 million.
“I am gonna have to go break his head,” del Balso told two friends on Sept. 2, 2004.
Another gambler named “Dino” owed $100,000 and del Balso told him on Thursday, Feb. 9, 2006, that he wanted his money by the weekend. Dino replied that del Balso owed him $17,000 and still hadn’t paid, which angered del Balso.
“Bro, there’s no f—–g book in the city that doesn’t belong to me, you know that. … I have a f—–g book that’s worth $50 million and you’re telling me about $17,000. But you know how much we take? A billion dollars in action. You think I’m a f—–g clown or something, bro? I built a f—–g empire. What are you talking about 17 dimes ($17,000)? I spit on 17 dimes.”
Dino: “I never called you a clown.”
Del Balso: “I’m going to send my partner Lorenzo (Giordano) to talk to you. What the f—. Bring my f—–g money to me by the end of the week. I don’t want to hear no story.”
Del Balso himself was a compulsive gambler who dropped millions of dollars at the Montreal Casino.
He even played his own book and at one point had trouble making a $1,000 telephone bet on a St. Louis Rams football game because his clerks claimed they didn’t know who he was.
“What’s the password?” the clerk asked him.
“What password? It’s me TT221,” del Balso replied.
“Who is it?” the clerk asked.
An impatient del Balso replied: “It’s the owner, Frank. Jesus Christ.”
The documents indicate del Balso and Giordano worried they had too much cash.
“The cash, you can’t do nothing, bro,” del Balso said.
“It’s worth dick, man,” Giordano replied. “I wake up screaming in the middle of the night, bro.”
Del Balso tried to launder millions of dollars through the casino, but kept losing money.
As one of the casino’s high rollers, from 1996 to 2004, he bought $8.6 million in chips, but got back only $2.5 million in cheques.
Most of the balance he appears to have lost at the gaming tables.
Police charged del Balso and Giordano last November with drug trafficking, illegal gambling, money laundering and gangsterism. They were part of a takedown of 91 alleged Mafia members.
Giordano also faces an attempted murder charge.
Del Balso is in jail awaiting trial, while Giordano is a fugitive.
Source: Canada.com

Republican to Rescue on War on Gambling

For years, Alfonse M. D’Amato, the former Republican senator from New York, was the host at a Thursday evening poker game at his Capitol Hill office, playing with other lawmakers, staff members and lobbyists late into the night over pots that ranged from a few dollars to a few hundred.
Once New Yorkers collectively informed D’Amato that it was time to find a new line of work, he graduated to a higher-stakes game, playing with Howard Stern, among others. He is now a stalwart of a weekly game on Long Island where a bad night might mean that a player drops $5,000 or more.
As D’Amato tells it, and as his card-playing cronies confirm, he rarely leaves a game a loser. Yet it is a safe bet that his love of poker never proved so lucrative as it did last week, when he signed a lobbying deal with the Poker Players Alliance, a nascent group that hopes that D’Amato will help them become players in Washington politics, too.
Most immediately, the group is hoping that D’Amato, long known for his connections to Washington insiders and his ability to deliver perks to his constituents and interest groups, can help them overturn a new federal ban on Internet gambling–or at least exempt poker from its provisions.
“John Smith, maybe he doesn’t have the financial means or the ability” to travel to a casino, D’Amato said, gesturing with his hands and speaking volubly in his trademark accent. “The poor guy at home can’t bet $50 because we pass this law.”
The first big assault on poker players came in October when President Bush signed a bill aimed at online gambling by making it a crime to use credit cards or online payment systems for poker and other online casino games and sports betting conducted over the Internet. The law did not make it impossible or illegal for Americans to bet online, but it did make it trickier for players to get their cash to the offshore casinos that run the Internet sites.
“I think it’s fair to say that most poker players see themselves as nonpolitical,” said Walt Thiessen, 49, an entrepreneur from Warrenton, Va., who recently joined the alliance. “But the more that the government does to impede poker players, the more angry and frustrated they’re going to become.”
The booming popularity of poker has spawned any number of cable television shows and made media figures of professionals like Chris Moneymaker and Daniel Negreanu. Tens of millions of Americans play, primarily in home games but also at casinos, legal and illegal card rooms, and at scores of Web sites.
So perhaps it was inevitable that poker enthusiasts would assert themselves as another special interest demanding to be heard in Washington. The Poker Players Alliance, which says it has more than 160,000 members, most paying at least $20 to join the group, will open an office in Washington in the next two months “to oversee our political efforts there,” the group’s president, Michael Bolcerek, said. It hopes to build a grassroots organization whose political presence is felt in all 50 states, he said.
Moreover, D’Amato, for all his ability to attract attention and parlay his reputation into big money, may not have much sway in a Democratic-controlled Congress preoccupied with war, budget deficits and presidential politics. There is little interest there at the moment in turning back to a subject decided a year ago, when Republicans ruled.
D’Amato and his backers, said I. Nelson Rose, law professor at Whittier Law School in Costa Mesa, Calif., and an expert on gambling law, “think they have a pair of queens. But what have they really got? They don’t even have a pair.”
Still, former Representative Jim Leach, an Iowa Republican and one of the authors of the Internet gambling ban, said that D’Amato certainly added heft to the effort.
“Don’t ever underestimate Al,” he said on hearing of D’Amato’s role.
Certainly, D’Amato’s poker buddies have learned that lesson. “He’s tenacious, he’s fearless and he’s aggressive,” said Gary Melius, the host of the Monday game where D’Amato is now a regular. “He’s also really good at reading people.”
A waste of resources?
Subtlety has never been D’Amato’s long suit, and he has already embraced his new role with characteristic fervor. During an interview in his offices in a high-rise on Park Avenue in Manhattan, D’Amato did not answer questions about online poker as much as filibuster on the issue.
To him the implications of prohibiting online poker are profound, touching on matters as wide ranging as the war on terrorism, national security, the rights of the elderly and the handicapped and equal protection under the law. At times, he pounded his desk to make his point.
The money being spent to outlaw poker and enforce the ban, D’Amato said, could be better spent “in the battle against money laundering, trafficking in drugs, or trafficking in terrorism.”
He takes issue with Congress’s decision to lump in poker, a game of skill as well as luck, with games of pure chance like roulette and craps. “It’s really a great sport,” D’Amato said, perhaps the country’s favorite sport. “You don’t have 70 million people participating in baseball.”
It is not clear that poker has 70 million players, either. (D’Amato’s source is a study commissioned by the poker association.)
But one of his trademark tactics is throwing around numbers that might or might not be considered, well, a bluff. He talks of the million players who have already joined the poker association–a misstatement that prompted his handler, presidential style, to clarify that what the former senator meant is that the group hoped one day soon to have that many names on its rolls.
After New York voters replaced D’Amato with Charles E. Schumer, a Democrat, in 1998, the former senator opened Park Strategies, a lobbying and corporate strategy firm whose client list includes banks, telecommunications companies and a few racetrack owners.
“I play as much now as I did before the ban.”
–Ethan Ruby, member, Poker Players Alliance He acknowledged that he did not understand the impulse that prompted a person to place a wager on a horse. But he spoke rhapsodically about the sense of community that poker has fostered in his life, and the banter, camaraderie and friendly competition that can make the game so engaging.
The intimacy of the game, in fact, produced some political headaches for D’Amato while he was chairman of the Senate Banking Committee after an article in The New York Times disclosed that he had invited lobbyists to play in his office. That gave extraordinary access, some charged, to those representing banks, securities firms and other financial institutions.
D’Amato has a different view, defending his activity as an innocent pastime that followed in the footsteps of President Harry S. Truman’s poker games with cronies. “It was a great way to while the time away–to have fun and talk politics,” he said.
Plenty of Americans are still playing poker online, if no longer at sites run by publicly traded companies, which fear reprisals from Washington despite being based overseas.
Instead, online players have shifted to smaller, privately owned sites. They are forced to find other means for transferring money in and out of their accounts, given that the new law more closely monitors financial institutions processing wagers.
“I play as much now as I did before the ban,” said Ethan Ruby, a member of the poker alliance who lives and works in Manhattan. Ruby said he simply took the money he had on account at PartyPoker, his old site, and transferred it to Full Tilt. He then linked his poker account to his checking account instead of a credit card.
“It’s a much more tedious process now,” Ruby said.
Still, it only took a few days. “You can’t cork this,” D’Amato said. “You can’t stop this through some silly bill.”
Online poker will only go further underground, he continued, providing an opening for unscrupulous foreign operators seeking to take advantage of the hunger of Americans to play poker.
“When you have regulation, where you have openness, you can ensure you have a game that won’t be unfairly cut or disadvantaged or manipulated,” D’Amato said. You can also tax the winnings of players whose ups and downs are tracked online, a figure the poker alliance puts potentially in the billions.
Rose, the law professor, while doubtful of the chances for the lobbying effort in the short run, said D’Amato and his backers would be well served in keeping the issue alive until there is more interest in the matter. “If they stay active the next two years,” he said, “then there could be a serious bill” to carve out an exception for poker.
Certainly, D’Amato has staying power.
“The later the game goes, the more Al is going to win,” said Larry Elovich, a Long Island lawyer who said he has been playing poker on and off with D’Amato for 50 years. “He has the ability to stay awake when the rest of the players are all tired.
Source: CNET

Legalize Sports Betting in the Garden State

We should legalize sports betting in New Jersey. Simple as that.
There are some hurdles, however. For starters, according to some arcane federal law, only four states are currently allowed to offer sports betting — Nevada, Oregon, Montana, and Delaware.
Now, Nevada has Vegas, where nearly every casino operates a sports book. Oregon, up until a month ago, allowed limited NFL betting, and Montana also allows limited action at a handful of bars and taverns.
And Delaware? Well, it looks like they may be smartening up. A bill is being introduced in their legislature to allow a sports book to open at Dover Downs racetrack.
As for New Jersey, pushes for legalized betting have come and gone, though now, powerful state Sen. Ray Lesniak is planning on introducing a resolution that would take the issue to the United States Congress.
While that’s all well and good, I don’t think politicians have much say in the matter.
You ask me, there’s only two teams in this game: The casinos vs. the sports leagues.
The sports leagues simply do not want any more legalized sports betting.
“It would send two very bad messages,” NFL attorney Jay Moyer has previously told New Jersey officials, according to the AP. “One is that anything goes when it comes to raising revenues, and two, that gambling and sports are natural partners.”
Yeah, um, Mr. Moyer? You might want to get your head out of the sand, lest you suffocate.
First off, without betting, sports leagues would probably go belly up, especially the NFL. For every tried-and-true NFL fan, I bet there’s 100 who are only interested in the point spreads and fantasy stats.
And when it comes to “anything goes” and raising revenues, the answer to that is “Hell yes, anything goes.” And the money that could be raised with legalized sports betting is of budget-changing, property tax-lowering proportions.
Some stats, courtesy of Forbes: Vegas takes some $2.5 billion in sports bets each year. Figure a standard five percent “vig” (the cut the casino takes) and that’s $125 million into the casino’s pockets.
Now, while $2.5 billion is a lot, consider this number: $230 billion. That’s a best-guess estimate of what’s “illegally” bet in this great nation each year.
Now get this: Vegas, for all it’s charms, is still in the middle of the desert, and people have to fly to get there. Atlantic City, on the other hand? There’s 62 million people — 20 percent of the nation’s population — within a 300 mile radius.
Taking all these numbers one step further, if A.C. managed to score 20 percent of the $230 billion illegally bet each year, that would be $46 billion legally bet in our casinos. Take the five percent vig, and that’s $2.3 billion.
(And why would bettors choose A.C. over their current bookies? Because most illegal bookies charge a 10 percent vig. Simple as that.)
Now, the hard part: New Jersey must take half that $2.3 billion — just like Pennsylvania takes from it’s casinos — a far cry from the eight percent we now charge A.C. operators. So let’s call it an even billion into the state’s coffers.
One more step: There’s some 1.2 million property tax payers in the state. Do the math, and the resulting number — $833 — could go to each and every one of us.
(You can put your calculators away now.)
Granted, the numbers above are wildly best-case scenarios, but the fact remains: Sports betting is huge, denying it exists is foolish, and we’re wasting a golden opportunity to increase revenue.
Or, as Lesniak put it, “Why should millions of dollars go to Las Vegas, offshore casinos, and the mob?”
Good question.
Source: Trentonian

EU Strikes Down Italian Ban on Gambling

State-run gambling companies in the European Union may find it harder to defend their monopolies after Europe’s highest court lifted a barrier Italy used to keep out foreign competitors.
The European Court of Justice in Luxembourg today ruled Italy can’t use criminal law to stop gaming companies licensed in other EU nations, including the U.K.’s Stanley Leisure Plc, from taking bets in the country. A law barring publicly traded companies from obtaining licenses restricts “the freedom to provide services.”
State monopolies in France, Germany and other countries have been criticized by companies such as Ladbrokes Plc for blocking their cross-border online gaming business. Shares of providers such as Austrian Web bookmaker Bwin Interactive Entertainment AG surged after today’s court decision, which may remove some restrictions on the EU’s 50 billion-euro ($66 billion) industry.
“This is a step further toward a liberalization of the European gambling markets,” said Lode Van Den Hende, a lawyer in the Brussels office of Herbert Smith. “Overall this is very good now for the gaming operators. If this had gone against them they could have closed shop.”
A spokesman for Italy’s state monopoly, which oversees gaming in Italy, wasn’t immediately available to comment.
Liverpool Bets
Massimiliano Placanica and two other people who operated shops in Italy where people could place online bets with Stanley’s office in Liverpool, England, faced criminal charges under Italian law because Stanley didn’t have a local gaming license. Stanley argued its U.K. license should be recognized by all EU countries.
The court prohibited the use of criminal law in particular in cases where foreign betting companies were refused the required license by the country, as was the case for Stanley.
“The Italian criminal penalties for the collecting of bets by intermediaries acting on behalf of foreign companies are contrary,” to EU rules, an 11-judge panel of the court said.
The tribunal today left it to the national courts to decide whether by restricting the number of operators in the gaming and betting industry in the country, Italy was “genuinely” contributing to the goal of preventing crime.
`Landmark’ Decision
Stanley said it was a “landmark” decision that will put pressure on governments and the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm in Brussels, to end national protectionism.
“We think it’s time that the commission and national lawmakers act now to end this protectionism,” said Adrian Morris, deputy director-general of Stanley.
“This judgment is another step along the road to fairer competition in Europe,” Christopher Bell, chief executive of Ladbrokes, said in an e-mailed statement. “We have already seen Italy and Spain move to open up their betting markets and this judgment supports our view that the policies of many EU governments are inappropriate and disproportionate in restricting free and fair competition.”
Bwin said the decision was a “milestone toward the opening of the European gambling market.”
The commission last year started probing 10 EU countries including Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and France for discrimination by barring rivals from offering the same services as their state lotteries. They face being taken to the EU court depending on the outcome of the investigation.
Share Gains
Stock in Bwin, whose co-chief executive officers were detained for three days in September by French authorities, rose as much as 5.20 euros, or 21 percent, to 29.60 euros, heading for its biggest one-day gain in almost seven years. They traded at 28.49 euros as of 3:54 p.m. in Vienna.
Unibet advanced as much as 15.50 kronor, or 9.2 percent, to 183.5 kronor in Stockholm, the biggest jump since December 2005. The company sponsors a professional cycling team whose members were barred last month by the organizers of a French race from wearing uniforms that displayed Unibet’s Web site address.
Ladbrokes shares gained as much as 3.1 percent to 408.75 pence in London trading.
Sportingbet Plc, the online bookmaker that owns Paradise Poker, advanced as much as 4.25 pence, or 8.7 percent, to 53.25 pence in London. Gaming VC Holdings SA, a Web casino company that gets most of its sales from Germany and Austria, rose as much as 8 pence, or 7.8 percent, to 111 pence.
Questionable Effects
Still, lawyers including Quirino Mancini at Sinisi Ceschini Mancini and Partners in Rome said today’s decision may be limited to the circumstances in this case. The court focused on Stanley’s business, which “isn’t pure online betting,” he said.
“Those who will now claim this is a big ruling for the whole online betting industry may be wrong,” he said. Other bookmakers, including Bwin have a different model and may not directly benefit until another round of court proceedings.
The decision won’t have any effect on Germany’s state monopoly, said Friedhelm Repnik, spokesman for the association of the Lotto corporations, Germany’s lottery.
“The situation in Italy is a completely different,” he said. “They have a partially open market, here in Germany we have a clear state monopoly, whose central goal it is to prevent gambling addiction.”
The court has previously backed gaming monopolies if they’re designed to prevent gambling addiction, he said.
Italy had already opened up its gaming market by introducing new rules in July 2006, said Mancini. Three months later it offered 16,000 licenses, which “caused a major change in the whole gaming distribution network in Italy,” he said.
British operators Ladbrokes and William Hill Plc are just two non-Italian companies that got a license to set up betting shops in Italy, he said.
The case numbers are C-338/04, C-359/04, C-360/04 Procuratore della Repubblica v Massimiliano Placanica, Christian Palazzese and Angelo Sorrichio Placanica.
Source: Bloomsberg

Conference Tournament News and Notes For the Sports Bettor

Here are some sharp player news and notes from
the staff of OffshoreInsiders.com

Wednesday, March 7,
2007

Providence-West Virginia

West Virginia
is 4-1 SU on neutral courts. However two of the neutral court wins were in Charleston,
West Virginia
. Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com reminds us, “One of
the biggest blunders that square player makes is handicapping a neutral court
as if it is a road game.” The square may overreact to West
Virginia
’s 2-6 road Big East mark.

St. John’s-Marquette

Although St. John’s
will have the closest of any team to a home court advantage, they will enter
this game without their leading scorer and rebounder Lamont Hamilton. He is a
first-team all-Big East selection.

UAB-Marshall

It’s the seventh meeting in the last four years with UAB
holding a 4-2 edge. However the teams
split this year and the six games were decided by a total of just 40 points.

Arizona State-Washington

Washington
enters with great momentum having beaten USC and UCLA. However the pressure is on as they likely
will have to win four games in four days to make the NCAA Tournament. Seventeen
of Washington’s 18 wins have come
at home. Their only win away from home
though was to ASU 66-61. This game is at the Staples
Center
in Los
Angeles
.

Arizona State
was competitive down the stretch losing by a combined 10 points to Washington
State
, Arizona
and UCLA.

Oregon State-California

The Golden Bears won both meetings, but each went to the
last shot of regulation, one going to overtime.

Richmond-Fordham

Richmond did
not play a neutral game, but went 2-11 SU on the road. Fordham enters on a four-game winning streak
in which their offense got progressively better culminating in two games in
which they shot 54.9 percent or better.

SMU-Southern Miss

Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com says the key to finding dark
horses in March is betting on teams that lost a lot of close games during the
regular season. SMU has six conference losses by five-points or less. The
Mustangs are 2-0 on neutral sites beating Illinois
State
and McNeese
State
.

We will keep an eye on game day injury information. SMU closed out the year without three key
players who could be back: Bamba Fall, Derrick Roberts and Devon Pearson. Fall
is their best defensive player.

St. Louis-Duquesne

After being buoyed by changing to an up-tempo attack, the
Dukes have dropped their last seven. Duquesne did win the only meeting this
year to go to 4-1 all-time in the series. Over/under bettors will look to see
which team can set the pace. Duquesne is
an up-tempo team while the Bilikens play at a snail’s pace.

Thursday, March 8,
2007

Michigan State-Northwestern

Points will be tough to come by as Michigan
State
led the conference is
virtually every defensive category, only once in 31 games allowing more than 47
percent. Northwestern is fourth in points per game defense, but ninth in the
more accurate field goal percentage defense. Six of MSU’s
10 losses were by seven or fewer points.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com. In his scorephone days as “JD of the ACC” he
was given the moniker of “Mr. March” for his 18 hour days and unparallel
winning.


How Kaplan Fled

Gary Kaplan used to throw lavish parties in Costa Rica and plaster the name of
his thriving online-gambling company on buses in New York. Now, the founder of
BetOnSports PLC and the multibillion-dollar industry he helped spawn are in
much-reduced circumstances — the man on the run, the industry in disarray.
Kaplan, 48, is a fugitive from a racketeering-conspiracy and fraud indictment
filed last year in U.S. District Court in St. Louis charging him with heading a
criminal enterprise that illegally took in more than $3.5 billion in wagers
since 2001.
Several colleagues of Kaplan also have been charged, including BetOnSports’
former chief executive, David Carruthers, who was arrested at the Dallas-Fort
Worth airport in July during a stopover on a flight from London to the
company’s headquarters in San Jose, Costa Rica. Carruthers and several others
charged in the case have pleaded not guilty and are awaiting trial.
Kaplan’s whereabouts are unknown.
The Kaplan indictment is part of a broad federal crackdown in which executives
from other foreign online-gambling operations and credit-card processing
companies also have been indicted.
Last October, Congress passed a law banning almost all forms of online
gambling. Recently, the Justice Department served subpoenas for records on the
investment banks that helped BetOn­Sports and other online-gambling companies
raise money through public stock offerings.
Industry observers estimate that online wagering, which had hit about $12
billion a year, is down by as much as 50 percent. BetOnSports largely has
closed its operations. Federal authorities estimate that 98 percent of the
company’s business came from the United States.
The saga of BetOnSports and Gary Kaplan demonstrates how some online-gambling
sites rose fast and crashed hard by operating at, or beyond, the edge of the
law.
While Kaplan has a checkered background that includes run-ins with law
enforcement, he may have gotten as far as he did in part by surrounding himself
with executives like Carruthers, who came to BetOnSports with a mainstream
business background.
Before Kaplan became an international online gambling impresario, the native of
New York was a bookie and had been busted in 1993 by that state’s authorities
for running an illegal sports-betting operation, according to his indictment.
He moved to Florida, where he allegedly continued his bookmaking operation, and
then on to Aruba and Antigua before later finally settling in San Jose. The
Costa Rican capital, with light-handed gambling regulation and a ready work
force, began attracting other online betting operations.
Kaplan made a splash. He took over a nine-story office building in a
shopping-mall complex and outfitted it with a day-care center for workers’
children as well as luxurious suites and a rooftop pool for visiting high
rollers that BetOnSports sometimes flew in for huge galas.
Obsessed with security
BetOnSports’ headquarters also housed a shooting range — a reflection of
Kaplan’s fascination with guns and an obsession with personal security, say
people who know him. He, his wife and two children routinely traveled with
armed bodyguards.
The bodyguards were, at least in part, “an ego thing,” said Kenneth Weitzner,
founder of Eye on Gambling, a website that tracks Internet gambling.
Kaplan created the illusion that he thought went with a successful gambling
operation, said Weitzner, who visited Kaplan at his Costa Rican operation.
Another acquaintance called Kaplan “tough and intimidating.” In one tale, he
supposedly shot a computer monitor after BetOnSports lost big on a football
game.
As BetOnSports grew into one of the biggest online gambling companies, it tried
to move mainstream. Kaplan hired veteran gambling-industry executives, such as
Carruthers, who had worked for Ladbrokes PLC, a major British wagering company.
In 2004, BetOnSports had an initial public offering in London that raised about
$100 million and its stock was listed on a branch of the London Exchange.
Sites operated openly
While Internet gambling is legal in many countries, the U.S. long has contended
that it violated various federal statutes — even before the specific ban was
enacted last fall.
Federal officials made periodic efforts to attack online gambling, but the
companies often managed to operate relatively freely in the U.S. BetOnSports
was able to run U.S. marketing campaigns, including ads on 250 New York City
buses in 2003.
Even as the industry soared, federal agents were building criminal cases. Some
of BetOnSports’ “customers” in 2002 and 2003 turned out to be undercover
investigators gathering evidence for last year’s indictment.
BetOnSports’ name appeared in news reports in connection with a 2005 criminal
case filed by New York prosecutors against an allegedly mob-connected gambling
operation that was sending bets to an entity in BetOnSports’ headquarters in
San Jose.
In those reports, BetOnSports officials said the entity simply leased office
space and was evicted after the indictment. Bet­OnSports wasn’t charged in the
New York case.
Crackdown questioned
Some observers find the federal government’s crackdown on Internet gambling
curious, given the national explosion in casinos and lotteries in recent years.
These people wonder whether the initiative will backfire by pushing gamblers to
less-reputable operations.
The recent criminal cases and legislation are “an anti-consumer-protection
movement because they’re eliminating the most reputable publicly traded
companies,” said Nelson Rose, a law professor in California who is an expert on
gambling laws.
In recent years, BetOnSports and others, including some U.S. casino operators,
had lobbied Congress to legalize online gambling, arguing that it could then be
regulated and taxed.
As for Kaplan, he is being sought by U.S. and international law-enforcement
officials, including Interpol, whose website carries a “wanted” poster for him.
Although his home was in Costa Rica, some believe he has left that country. One
rumor has him and his family in Israel, there on an Israeli passport.
If Kaplan is apprehended or returns voluntarily to the U.S., he will have to
answer the indictment filed against him in St. Louis.
If convicted, he could face a lengthy prison sentence and large financial
penalties.
Source: St. Louis Today

Not All March Madness Betting Beliefs are Urban Legends

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Our last article articulated our enthusiasm regarding an
ESPN Insider series. It was scientific study that found common attributes on
overachievement and underachievement teams in March Madness. We believe close
scrutiny and application will only increase our “Lord of the Dance” status.

A great many of our articles, over the years, focused on
exposing and fading gambling myths. But not all commonly held beliefs are untruths.

There were some trends that the research found are more in
tune with perception. Perhaps topping the list is the importance of experience.
Coaches with at least 10 tournament appearances and teams with at least four
straight tournament bids did very well both in beating higher seeds or holding
serve when they were the better seeded team.

However, not surprisingly “experience” was significantly
more affective when combined with other top performing factors, such as
frontcourt scoring ability, “star” power (if you didn’t read our previous
article, defined as “All American”). This is consistent with what we’ve
stressed for years. Having been there
and done that is icing on the cake, but not the entire package by any means. In
other words, a talented and seasoned team is better than a gifted newbie, but
maturity in and of itself has little value if not backed by ability.

One finding that I’m not sure whether to categorize it as
contrarian or widely accepted, but instead classify it under a more significant
umbrella: invaluable foreknowledge. When united with other attributes, teams
that enter the tournament on a one-game losing streak do exceptionally well in
the tournament.

This should come as a surprise to nobody, though it likely
does. We used the terminology of the study, but perhaps the term “streak” is a
misnomer. Teams that enter the Dance off of one and only one loss obviously are
not “streaking” in the wrong direction. This of course is not flawless. Hypothetically they could have lost 4-of-5 as
an example, but it would be the exception. Capturing conference championship
means winning three or four games in a row, usually in as many days and it the
case of the big conferences, with as little as three days rest before the Field
of 65.

A team off a loss is almost always an at-large team and
will generally be better rested than the conference champs. A little wake-up
call before the tournament starts will be a positive for a quality team. Let’s
face it, teams that are good enough to make the Field of 65, somewhere along
the line showed they have an ability to rebound from a one-game setback.

Not to mention, both the NCAA committee and the betting
public can tend to overreact based on an early exit in the conference
tournaments.

The ESPN quantitative analysis of course, was not gambling
specific, so hence it will not produce direct and specific systems to apply.
However, the trial and error has beyond reproach produced very advantageous
rules of engagement for the sports gambler during March Madness pointspread
betting.

Joe Duffy is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard
scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
the premier hub of world-class handicappers.


Tuesday GodsTips

Tuesday, February 27,
2007

RECENT RUN: 5-2 CBB WISE GUY PLAYS,
OVER 60 PERCENT THIS YEAR, 7 WINNERS, 3 WISE GUY PLAYS

Promises Made,
Promises Delivered
goes 3-1 with CBB Wise Guy
plays last night. We have two college Wise Guy plays that both are gifts from
the schedule maker. We explain why. One is on ESPN. We may have tournament steam
inclusive in all purchases. Click now to
purchase

CBB

KANSAS STATE +2 Oklahoma State

Six losses in its last seven games, including four in a
row, have Oklahoma State
on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. This includes two straight
double digit home losses.

The Massey Comparison Ratings, combining the strengths and
weaknesses of all the top power ratings has Kansas State No. 49 and OSU No. 61. To say the least, K State is playing OSU at the right time.

 


Tuesday Computer Trends

Tuesday, February 26, 2007

All trends are ATS and from private and commercial
databases used by the OffshoreInsiders.com
elite handicappers: Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com,
Stevie Vincent’s BetOnSports360.com
and MasterLockLine.com

NBA

·       
New Orleans
over five straight road games

·       
Indiana
9-1 home to Phoenix

·       
Washington
over 20-6 off spread win

 

CBB

·       
Michigan
State 4-1 their last five games

·       
Pittsburgh
is 10-3 versus West Virginia

·       
BYU under 10-0 road
opponent attempts 53 or fewer shots per game

·       
Michigan
State
under 8-0 after two straight games with five or less steals

 

 


March Madness Betting: ESPN Study Confirms What We’ve Said For Years

Over the years, we have written many articles exposing betting urban legends. We warned you about the guards dominate inductive non-thinking. In a football article, we enlightened gamblers of a truth that applies in all ATS sports gambling, “Actual straight up wins and losses have little bearing on handicapping”. Our article about how great offensive teams win big games was an epiphany for many.

Peter Tierana of ESPN.com has written a series of articles that are the “Top 10 indicators of overachievement” in the men’s basketball NCAA Tournament as well as the “bottom five” or more accurately stated: the top five indicators of underachievement.

Frankly little we read surprised us. Using objective numbers, ESPN measured “Performance against seed expectations” which simply put is a study of how often the higher seeded team wins, and what factors are most common when the lower seeded team wins.

Clients know we consider units won to be the most accurate way to measure a gambling system rather than winning percentage, because it takes sample size into consideration. We have decades of experience to prove that is more statistically reliable.

ESPN ranks their attributes based what they call PASE (performance against seeded expectations). At least from a handicapping standpoint, much like above, we consider the actual +/- wins to be the higher confidence level. Thus I used ESPN’s data but based statistical confidence using a different criterion.

Here’s a newsflash: most gamblers lose.  In a related note, the overwhelming belief is “defense wins” championships and big games. We tell you time and time again, defensive intensity rises in the postseason making teams that can score big and tough baskets considerably more important.

Where’s Richard Dawson when you need him? Survey says teams that average scoring three points more than the tourney field are +46.8 victories. It is no surprise to us the highest +/- in the study using a single attribute.

Mercy me, guess what the worst +/- in the field is? Teams that have a points allowed per game below the tourney field average are -33.6 wins. The short of it is the biggest victim of upsets: superior defenses. The biggest culprits of pulling off upsets: superior offenses. Luckily for us, the subsidize-the-books gaming public believes it’s the polar opposite.

Teams with a margin of victory of 15 points or more had 244.7 “expected wins” but 288 actual wins, a +43.3 wins ratio. Margin is so much more accurate than wins and losses because luck plays no small part in winning or losing close games. Margin of victory validates a team’s truth strength.  Of course from the gamblers standpoint, margin of victory is everything.

Tieran then did a follow-up article on “attribute pairings”. That is simply when combining two factors, what were the results.  Of course because fewer games would be involved, by and large the +/- were not as high as when only one factor was needed. However PASE scores were generally higher.

The highest PASE of them all is at .509.  It says teams that got more than 60 percent of the scoring from the frontcourt and at least one preseason All-American win at the most disproportionate rate relative to seed.

Like we said, so many teams have quality backcourts.  There are so few teams have top level front courts. But those that do will advance in the Dance.

The “attribute pairings” in a modest surprise did though produce the highest +/-.  Teams with more than four straight tourney bids and a one-game losing streak entering the tourney had 207.6 expected wins but 258 actual wins a +50.4 margin.

Not that the four-letter conglomerate needs any help from us, but ESPN Insider over the years has produced copious content of value to the sports investor. March Madness bracketology is high on the list of categories.

Be warned, the data takes a lot of time to synthesize, parse and apply to sports betting. Perhaps a better alternative is to find a professional handicapper who does it for you. Ahem.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.