All posts by Joe Duffy

Blackmail, Not Just Bribery Can Lead to Pointshaving

The burgeoning betting scandal of former Toledo running back Harvey “Scooter” McDougle Jr. has again brought to the forefront the evergreen discussion and debate of the frequency of game fixing and point shaving.

The answers as to the questions how common it is and by who will probably be forever elusive.  Professor Justin Wolfers, of the respected Wharton School, did a study which concludes point shaving is quite prevalent in college basketball.  We critiqued that study in another article and while we disagree with his conclusions, clearly a man of his credentials cannot easily be discounted.

But in this article we want to bring to light the fallacies in a common presumption. Most seem to assume pointspread chicanery is limited to giving money to an athlete, coach or official in return for altering the betting result of a game.

Some naively believe at the professional sports level this is unlikely to happen, especially with those who affect the outcome of the game the most, the athletes.

The prevailing thought is a high-priced athlete has too much to lose and the amount of payola required would be cost prohibitive to the potential game fixer. That in theory should be true, but one would probably be giving athletes more credit for good judgment than they deserve.

But mere dollars and cents are far from the only type of inducement one could employ for skullduggery.

Talk about burgeoning scandals; is there anyone among us who doesn’t believe the steroid uproar has barely scratched the surface? What if just one influential supplier of performance enhancing drugs were a high-stakes bettor?

He’s got coveted contraband.  He’s got direct communication with significant athletes. You do the math.

Did somebody say scandal? It seems every decade or so we find out about a Madam to the multi-millionaires. Apparently the rich and powerful are willing to bequeath significant funds to acquire the services of a sweet painted lady. What might an amorous athlete being willing to do for the executive concubine service? A friend once told me “dames are trouble”. Are you getting the picture?

Do you think there may be some drug use among professional athletes? What would an athlete who wants only the best and hottest designer drugs do? A little information to crush the sportsbooks perhaps?  This may come as a shock, but I hear not all drug peddlers walk a straight and narrow line.  What kind of favors could the drug trafficker get from a desperate burnout who needs his fix? Did I just say “fix”?

But that’s not even adding blackmail to all of the above. What if a money player had overwhelming incriminating information concerning a player being involved in any of the aforementioned vices? Hush money is not cheap and it may just come in the form of a favor or two rather than in a briefcase of dollar bills.

Yet another bombshell in the news recently was the coming out book of former NBA player John Amaechi.  When the ex-journeymen admitted he was gay, it brought a lot of discussion as to the likelihood of a current athlete coming out of the closest. Current and former players, coaches and coach potatoes alike agreed an active player would risk serious ostrasization and many other ramifications to come out.

What if a gambling extortionist wanted, instead of financial shake down, some in-game kickbacks?

How about the same with a married player with an active black book—a player who wouldn’t want his marriage turned into a public and bitter multi-million dollar divorce settlement?

No, it’s not my “hypothetical confession” of how I would have bribed an athlete “if I did it”. But having been in the business since the 1980s, one does hear things.  Most, perhaps all is mere gossip and hearsay.  However, one thing I can say for certainty to those who believe professional athletes would unlikely be on the take because the risk/return factor is too great. Don’t bet on it.

Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, has been an expert guest on Sporting News Radio, the Gambler’s Zoo and several other network and internet radio shows.

Monday Computer Trends

Monday, April 09, 2007

All the top sports service plays at OffshoreInsiders.com

NBA

·       
New York
is 7-1 home to Detroit

·       
Toronto
under 25-8 opponent averages seven or fewer steals per game

·       
Milwaukee
14-2 home to Orlando

·       
Minnesota
over 21-7 non-conference games

·       
Portland
7-3 last 10 games

·       
Minnesota
5-18 run

 

MLB

·       
White Sox 45-27 +29 units last three years road
underdogs

·       
Houston
under 12-1 road underdogs of 125-150


Saturday Computer Trends

Saturday, April 6,
2007

Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com,
Stevie Vincent’s BetOnSports360.com
and MasterLockLine.com are part of OffshoreInsiders.com Network.

MLB

·       
NYM Tom Glavine team record the last two years

·       
San Diego David Wells 44-18 since 1997 team record to teams with a +1 runs per game
or better average

·       
Tampa Casey Fossum 12-4
+12.3 on artificial turf the last two years

 

NBA

·       
Boston
15-4 road

·       
Memphis
8-1 to Orlando

·       
Orlando
7-23 if they are 1-2 their last 3 SU

 

 


Late Season NBA Betting

As we approach the homestretch in the NBA, we celebrate that it’s a very profitable time for sharp players. This is in no small part because the oddsmakers adjust to false public perception.  Betting urban legends are quite popular this time of the year.

As is the case in every sport, it’s the time of the season that Joeybagofdonuts looks at the playoff races and simply goes with the “team that needs it more”. Sharp players meanwhile will collect big time going with true spoilers against teams in must-win situations.

First off all let us define the terms.  A “true spoiler” is an organization that has no chance of making the playoffs and whose biggest wins henceforth can only be raining on somebody else’s parade. “We are not talking about a top level team playing spoiler against the No. 9 team in the conference” emphasizes Curt Thomas, lead NBA handicapper of GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com

Likewise a “must win” applies “only to teams fighting for a playoff spot, not those simply jockeying for homecourt advantage,” adds Thomas.

Remember, bad teams have players fighting for their jobs in many cases.  Fear is a great motivator and the desire to extend a seven-figure-a-year career can invigorate a player more than the thought of extending the season.

This is not necessarily across-the-board.  A veteran team such as Minnesota could have their key players thinking of simply getting the season over with.

This is why in contests involving also-rans or desperate teams we take recent form much more into consideration than we do all other circumstances.

As is the case all year, deceptive straight-up records are exploited when compared to scoring margins. However, there are a lot more outplay factors this time of the year than any other point of the season because of the aforesaid false motivation perceptions knocking the line even more out of whack.

We can’t say it enough—straight up records is the most overused statistic in ATS handicapping. Successful betting isn’t about who wins the game, but who covers the spread.  Those who keep the books in business pay so little attention to the much more significant margin statistic.

Let us move onward to more proactive betting secrets. Detroit, Dallas, Phoenix and San Antonio are veteran teams that will use the late-season to fine tune for the playoffs. We will look to fade those teams as huge chalks, especially against bad teams that have shown recent competitiveness.  Again by that we mean close losses to quality teams, not necessarily straight up wins.

If we ever decided to do a sports gambling version of Snopes.com, we could start with late season NBA betting truths and myths.

In fact, lucky for you, we just did.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at GodsTips on OffshoreInsiders.com. He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

Friday Computer Trends

Friday, March 30, 2007

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NBA

·       
Charlotte
20-8 revenging a same season loss this year

·       
New York
20-8 revenging double digit loss

·       
Houston
28-11 road opponent scores 99 or more points per game

·       
Minnesota
over 14-2 home total in 180s

·       
Boston
7-1 at Philadelphia

·       
Detroit
7-16 last 23

·       
Dallas
8-2 to New York

 

 


Top Betting Sites Announce Packages For Baseball Season

Address for site: www.offshoreinsiders.com

E-mail: SVincent@JoeDuffy.net

Websites: Joe Duffy GodsTips.com, Stevie Vincent BetOnSports360.com,
and
MasterLockLine.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, March 28, 2007

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Sports Gambling Watch List 3-27

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Here is an edited look at one of the internal crib sheets
compiled on a daily basis by the staff of GodsTips.com.
It’s a proactive view of what tendencies sharpies should look for in upcoming
days.

Update: Knicks
injuries and turmoil both on rise. It is possible Quentin Richardson and David
Lee are out for the year.

Insight: We do
not subscribe to any conspiracy theories about teams tanking it. As a general
rule of thumb, the best value for teams this time of the year is with bad teams.
The quality teams are overvalued, but
Knicks are a bad team we look to fade.

Owner Jeff Dolan foolishly extended overwhelmed coach
Isaiah Thomas’ contract and coach is using injuries as an excuse for failure
rather than a rallying cry for success. Plus they have the injuries that sharp
players exploit—that is to key players, but non-superstars, injuries that sneak
under the radar: Jamal Crawford, David Lee and Quentin Richardson.

Update: The
Detroit Pistons will use the final month to fine tune.

Insight: Pistons’
fanatic Brian Gould of CasinoBettingNews.com
said that the Pistons offense is out of synch lately because of nagging
injuries. “Chauncey Billups is hurting, Rasheed
Wallace missed five games and Rip Hamilton is showing signs he needs rest,”
said Gould.

With seven of their last 12 games at home, Detroit
will be laying some generous numbers, while they work out some kinks and get
ready for the playoffs. There should be
some good opportunities to take the points going against the Pistons.

Update: Cleveland
went 8-0 when rookie guard Daniel Gibson was hurt, but are
1-3 SU since his return.

Insight: This
is another example of the importance of chemistry. Coach Mike Brown’s rotation
is going haywire trying to find the right combination. Gibson for his part has
been a shell of himself shooting just nine percent from the field since his
return.

Obviously sharp players will keep a close eye in his
progress. Yet again, it’s not LeBron
James that the wise guy focuses on, but a key player whose slumps and
contributions will be overlooked.

Update: The
four teams battling for the last two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference
are a combined 15-33 this month.

Insight: Yet
again, like we say, one of the biggest myths in gambling is betting on the team
that “needs it more”. Any team that is fighting for a playoff spot in the
inferior East clearly has not performed during the year when it counts. True spoilers meaning teams that are out of
the playoff picture but can rain of some other team’s parade will be a bettor’s
goldmine when they play Orlando, New
York
, New Jersey
and Indiana.

Winding up another winning college postseason, Center of
the Handicapping Universe GodsTips.com
will be researching pro basketball and baseball from every conceivable
proactive angle to ensure you year-round winning.


Tuesday Computer Trends

Tuesday, March 27,
2007

Each of the nation’s elite handicappers has a full season
MLB package at a huge discount now at OffshoreInsiders.com

All records ATS

CBB

·       
Mississippi
State
10-4 their last 14

·       
Air Force is 2-6 this last eight

NBA

·       
Cleveland
16-5 run

·       
Dallas
17-6 versus New Orleans

·       
Minnesota
1-7 skid

·       
Lakers 1-8 slump

·       
Memphis
9-2 to Lakers

·       
Miami
10-4 last 14


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Monday, March 26,
2007

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NBA

Memphis-Phoenix OVER 224.5

As much as we admittedly have to overcome a bias against
betting high totals over (though the bias is based on facts), this game should
have about 250 points scored. Memphis
has had three straight games in which they both shot and allowed 50 percent or
more shooting. In fact, Memphis
has shot 50 percent or better in 5-of-8 and 46.2 percent or higher in seven of
those eight.

Then there is the Suns. All they
do is scored 110.1 points per game while giving up 103.1, but it’s rare they
face a team in this much of a run and gun mode as Memphis
has been in.

As bad as Memphis
is, it’s so much easier to motivate them on offense than on defense. Considering
Phoenix has lost 3-of-5 SU, we look
for them to go nuts on the scoreboard.


Wednesday Computer Trends

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

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CBB

·       
Syracuse
covered 7-of-9

·       
Clemson 1-5 last six at home

·       
DePaul 4-1 last five

 

NBA

·       
Toronto
5-0 versus Orlando

·       
Cleveland
7-2 home versus Dallas

·       
Minnesota
7-3 road to Sacramento

·       
Washington
7-1 to Seattle

·       
Seattle
3-6 skid