Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

A few years back we wrote an article on the importance of
evaluating how teams hit left-handed and right-handed pitchers. In summary, we surmised it was important, yet
keeping in perspective, we demonstrated how the numbers can be greatly affected
by random chance. Hence we warned about
becoming too dependant on deceptive statistics that are so often fools gold.

We have very similar thoughts about comparing ballpark
statistics. There are some stadiums that could be classified as “pitchers’
ballparks” while others could reasonably be labeled more friendly to hitters.

Yet again, we have to give props to the four-letter evil
empire ESPN. In their fantasy baseball
section, they have a straight-forward “Park Factor” that compares that rate of
stats at home versus the rate of stats on the road. A rate that is higher than
1.000 favors the hitter, with lower than 1.000
favoring the pitcher.

Still, statistical reliability would assume the quality of
the opponent has been equal at home and on the road. Random chance indicates some teams will face
or use a disproportionate number of aces and No. 2 starters in one location.
This deviation is just one example.

Then there is wind direction. Perhaps several teams have had the wind blowing
in straight from center a higher percentage while other squads has an
overbalanced number blowing out to leftfield.

Why, according the ESPN Ballpark Factor, is Boston
the top hitters’ park this year, but was 13^th last season?

As of this writing, Rogers Centre in Toronto is the second
best pitchers park, yet last year it was a hitters paradise ranking 7^th
in hitting (24^th pitching).

Petco
Park is a rare exception. They are currently the top pitcher’s ball
orchard after finishing first each of the previous three years and third in
2003.

So how do the elite gamblers use the stats? To measure the
reliability of pitchers’ splits is how we employ them. For example, virtually every Padre is going
to have statistically better stats at home than on the road, so there is no
angle in the fact Chris Young, Greg Maddux, and David Wells for example do.

Yet Jake Peavy is actually a
better pitcher on the road than at home.
This is an advantage for the gambler. A pitcher’s splits are most
effective when measured against the ballpark stats.

Is there an edge for the over/under better? Often
short-term, but rarely is the edge long-term as the sportsbooks adjust. As of June 19, the Padres last eight road
games and 11-of-12 has seen a posted total of 8.0 or higher.

Yet 15 of their last 18 home games have seen a total of 7.5
or lower. Thinking somehow the sportsbooks are oblivious to such angles is one
way for a gambler to subsidize bookmakers.

The Park Factor statistic is a valuable handicapping
weapon, but more for statistical validation. Those who think they’ve found the
Holy Grail with stadium comparisons are not in the same ballpark as the
sharpies.

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Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Sharp players examine
our daily news and notes on OffshoreInsiders.com.
Among the other crib sheets we compile in-house are our pro-active sports
gambling “Watch Lists”. These are nuggets on what to look for based on drastic
changes and recent trends by specific teams. Most importantly, we analyze how
the teams and oddsmakers will adapt accordingly.

Update: Mets top hitters are getting healthy. Shawn Green is
returning from the DL and David Wright is red hot.

Insight: The Mets June swoon has been a team effort—or lack
thereof. Their pitching and offense have both been dreadful. However, last year
the Mets offense was able to conceal their pitching deficiencies. Often having a margin of error is the
difference for borderline set-up men being effective and not being successful.

Shawn Green was one
of the Mets most productive hitters before going on the DL. He returns just as
David Wright is swinging the bat well. This will take some of the heat off of
slumping Carlos Delgado.

Their offense will
come around and with a larger margin of error their mediocre bullpen will pitch
better. It’s time to stop fading the Mets
and ride the domino effect.

Update: Houston ousted closer Brad Lidge
is back in a groove. He’s given up just three earned runs in his last 26 1/3 IP
and has tentatively regained the role as closer.

Insight: In the name of full disclosure, as we are finishing off
our article, Lidge gave up that third run to blow a
save. But blowing a one-run lead aside, he is pitching much better. Lidge can be among the game’s best. A reliable closer is important not just for
the obvious reasons, but also psychological reasons. Among them is that nothing can be as
disconcerting as consistently blowing leads.
The damaging snowball effect leads to prolonged slumps. If Lidge is back,
the Astros have their edge back. We look
for underachieving Houston to finally get on a roll.

Update: Roger Clemens is back, but the jugs gun says his fastball
is not.

Insight: Clemens was so/so against an offensively challenged Pirate
team. Clemens has stated in the past he
is a power pitcher and will never be a finesse hurler. We doubt if he can adjust the way a more
willing Curt Schilling has. Ironically
because Clemens gives the Yankees some swagger, he may actually help them more
in games he doesn’t pitch.

For those raising
their eyebrows and saying how little sense that makes, be aware, we are huge
believers in the Yogi-ism of “90 percent of the game is half mental”. This is more so in baseball where teams play
every day. Sometimes it takes either a
wake-up call or an emotional lift to turn a season around. That’s why we know from experience that
getting arguably the greatest pitcher of all time will help the Yanks even when
he’s not in the ballpark. Getting him
past his prime though could mean good investment opportunities going against
him when he pitches.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and is
the Chief Analyst for Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com. Since his “JD of
the ACC” scorephone days, he has been accepted as the top underdog and small
favorite handicappers in the industry.

Anyone who has followed me over the years knows I preach
that small favorites and underdogs are where the best value can be found in
betting baseball odds. Who would have thought in a million years
that I’d be looking at Randy Johnson or the New York Yankees as undervalued?

But that’s where we are thanks to slow starts by both. One
of our credos in betting all sports is the Yogi Berra-ism
of “90 percent of the game is half-mental”. Getting Roger Clemens into the
starting rotation will pay wonders for them, not just in games he pitches.

He can be a true stopper, a pitcher who can end a team’s
funk with a pitching gem. Underachieving teams are so often buoyed by a manager
firing, major trade, or in this case, midseason free agent addition.

Admittedly, Johnson being undervalued will be
short-lived. Just as your sportsbook was releasing odds
reflective of the gambler’s belief that Johnson finally was showing his age,
the future first-ballot Hall-of-Fame has been untouchable in his last four
starts.

He’s given up four earned runs in his last 23 2/3 IP
allowing 16 hits and just one walk. His .675 WHIP in those four starts is
spectacular.

Whether it’s an overachieving or underachieving player or
team, sharp players know that over a 162-game schedule, more times than not,
they will play back to their mean. A high profile pitcher and a high profile
team top our list of current entities bettors must keep a sharp eye on.