All posts by Joe Duffy

Sports Betting News

Sports Handicapper Changes Sports Betting Landscape

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This time last year, sports handicapper Dr. Bob Stohl was
the preferred betting syndicate advisor in reference to college football picks
and NFL picks. Unfortunately, Doctor Bob had a mediocre year at best for those
who wager on football.

Simultaneously, Stevie Vincent a veteran football
handicapping expert was turning the sports betting industry, both Vegas
sportsbooks and online sportsbooks, upside down with his revolutionary forensic
handicapping.

Vincent’s meteoric rise, among high rollers betting on
sports, was not overnight. Ironically Vincent was successful at handicapping
sports but hesitant to gamble for personal reasons. He did admit a “family
member” had a major gambling problem but “not sports betting” so he was
resistant to bet.

He was Executive Editor of the famed scorephone Tailgate
Party, which in the pre-internet days was the choice for real-time sports
betting information and free football gambling picks.

MVP Sportsbook had a program for would-be sports
handicappers. Their model was to build
and market a site for anyone who wanted to open a sports service. In return, parent company, the VO-Group would
have exclusive rights to advertise their sportsbook and online casinos on such
site.

Vincent reluctantly started his career as a professional
sports handicapper via MVP Sportsbook, which was under the direction of online
sportsbook pioneer Dalton Wagner.

Joe Duffy, now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
took advantage of their marketing relationship with VO-Group when he
was General Manager of Freescoreboard.com.

“We used their program as sort of an American Idol for sports
handicappers.” MVP had about 300 handicappers in their program. According to
Duffy, “About 98 percent of them were William Hung,” a reference to American
Idol’s most infamous contestant. Continuing with his American Idol metaphor,
“There was really only one Kelly Clarkson or Carrie Underwood.”

While other handicappers made sales, Vincent was the only
tipster who got clients to continue to renew on a consistent basis. “The
quality of his reports, both in winning and insight was truly second to none”
Duffy asserts.

“We added three handicappers from the MVP program, but
Vincent was the crown jewel,” said Duffy.

Despite the presence of elite handicappers and sports
services the Animal, Leo Shafto, GodsPicks (now
GodsTips), and the SuperLockLine, Vincent found a niche and had a renewal rate
most touts only fantasize about.

Then an even bigger breakthrough happened. University
of PA forensic economist Justin
Wolfers wrote a research paper in which he claimed showed overwhelming
statistical evidence of point shaving in college athletics.

Vincent used some of the basic ideas in the paper to fine
tune his own handicapping techniques and developed the ground-breaking science
of forensic handicapping. “It was a natural progression to what I was already
doing,” says Vincent modestly.

Vincent, whose plays are released on BetOnSports360.com
has become the “unmitigated frontline source of sports bets for the world’s
biggest betting syndicates” according to wagering expert Cy McCormick.

Vincent claims several online sportsbooks have offered him
significant sums of money to give them the plays before he releases to his
clients. He declined. “They will have to
purchase my plays and will have equal access as everyone else.”


Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Sports Betting Information For NFL Preseason

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Here are news and notes from the standpoint of pointspread
investors. Information is from the private clipboard of the OffshoreInsiders.com sports
handicappers and sports betting services.

Redskins-Jaguars

Mike Godsey, the top professional football betting analyst
reports that the Redskins will have key players on the field longer than most
teams to in the preseason finale. Quarterback Jason Campbell, third year
player, but first year starter, will see his most extensive time of the
preseason. Oft-injured running back Clinton Portis is also expected to see his
first snaps of exhibition play.

Cowboys-Vikings

Over/under bettors, note that the Cowboys do have a big
battle for the No. 3 QB position. Look
for Matt Moore and Richard Bartel to be given a
chance to air it out.

Chiefs-Rams

Chief’s starting quarterback Damon Huard
will not play at all as he’s nursing a sore calf. Veteran tackle Kyle Turley will play despite
missing practice Tuesday for personal reasons.

Cardinals-Broncos

The Cardinals will play their starters on each side of the
ball for one or two series. Denver
backup signal caller Patrick Ramsey, an experienced starter, will get little or
no playing time. Preston Parsons and
Darrell Hackney will get most of the playing time at center. They have four completions combined this
preseason.

49ers-Chargers

Cy McCormick, who is on the “winners list” of most online
sportsbooks, reports that San Francisco’s starting units for each side of the ball
will play 12 snaps or the entire first quarter, whichever comes first.

Bills-Lions

Buffalo’s
starters will play two series at the most. J.P. Losman
will get the start at QB, Craig Nall
will also play a series or two than rookie Trent Edwards goes the rest of the
way. Cornerback Terrence McGee is out and wise receiver Lee Evens is very
unlikely to play.

What are the biggest sports service plays in the industry?
MasterLockLine.com gives you only the
highest rated plays from the highest rated handicappers in their highest rated
sports. You literally have the power of 620 sports
services behind every selection


Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Preseason Results Are Worthless in Handicapping NFL Regular Season Bets

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Preseason results are worthless in
predicting the spread winners in NFL gambling. The Indianapolis Colts are 2-12
straight up their last 14 exhibition contests. During that span, they became
the first team in NFL history to begin 9-0 in consecutive seasons.

While in the NBA and
MLB, exhibition results are actually a good warning of which teams will come
out of the gate quickly or slowly, making the first 10 days of MLB easy
pickings on underdogs, not so in the NFL.
The Colts have won 14-of-16 September games outright.

From 1992-95, Dallas was 49-15 in the regular season, winning three
Super Bowls. Their preseason mark in
those years was 7-12-1.

While appearing in
four Super Bowls from 1990-93, Buffalo was also 49-15 in regular season contests. In
practice contests: 6-12.

Ben Roethlisberger was abysmal in the 2005 preseason. All
he did after that was–in Bob Griese, Joe Montana, Tom
Brady fashion–efficiently direct the Pittsburgh Steelers to Super Bowl
victory.

One of the biggest myths in successful sports gambling comes
from the squares who claim sharp players don’t bet preseason football. Those
who bet on sports for a living know accurate motivational and key player
rotation information is obtainable.

However the actual results hold no value in beating the
regular season NFL odds. Even the
Roethlisberger example showed focusing on key players will often result in
false positives or negatives.

A comparable player at a comparable point in his career is
a good example. Arizona
is a great candidate to be this year’s Cinderella. It call comes down to how
far their young signal caller Matt Leinart has progressed.

What can we deduce from his mixed preseason performance? Sports
wagering NFL experts will tell you, “nothing”.

Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
is enemy No. 1 at the sports books.
His premium plays and expert advice can be had there as part of sports
service GodsPicks.


Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Tuesday Sports Betting News and Notes

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Here are Tuesday’s baseball betting news and notes from
the private clipboard of the top baseball handicappers at OffshoreInsiders.com

Devil Rays-Orioles

Tampa’s Jason Hammel has a 10.42 ERA in the month of August. However, he
faces an Orioles team that has lost six straight. Daniel Cabrera is 6-0
lifetime to Tampa with a 2.90 ERA.

Twins-Indians

Cleveland’s
Jake Westbrook has been a sensational fantasy baseball pitcher as of late,
sporting a 1.50 ERA in his last 36 innings. World class handicapper Stevie
Vincent, one of the OffshoreInsiders.com
top experts, notes that Kason Gabbard has great splits numbers. Texas
has won all six of his home starts and his home ERA is 2.38 with a .912 WHIP.

Angels-Mariners

The Halos Jeff Weaver is what master sports handicapper
Joe Duffy likes to call “predictably unpredictable”. He’s allowed one run or
less in 20 starts, but six or more in seven trips to the hill.

Reds-Pirates

Cincinnati
enters this double-header with the longest winning streak in MLB at eight
games.

Mets-Phillies

Philadelphia
southpaw Adam Eaton has been abysmal all year as his 6.36 ERA and 1.62 WHIP
dictates. Fresh off the DL, he takes on
the first-place Mets in a relative “must win” for the Phillies. Surprisingly,
Eaton has a 5-0 lifetime record to the Mets with a 1.89 ERA.

The Phillies are winless in 12 games as a home underdog in
2007.

Braves-Marlins

Florida is
ice cold, losing 9-of-11. The Braves send future Hall-of-Famer
John Smoltz to the hill off of consecutive wins in which he’s pitched 18
innings combined and given up just four runs. Smoltz is 13-6 career to the
Marlins with a 2.70 ERA.

Florida is
1-15 for -16.8 units this year when their bullpen ERA is 3.00 or less in their
previous 10 games.

Brewers-Cubs

Red hot Rich Hill totes the mound for Chicago. Over his last two starts he’s given up three
runs with a 17-3 walk-to-strikeout ratio. The Brew Crew are 4-16 -15.5 their
last 20 to teams that average .9 or less homeruns per game.

Nationals-Dodgers

Washington’s
Jason Bergmann makes his first start in more than a month.

For premium sports service winners, go to OffshoreInsiders.com


Press Releases

Sports Betting Expert Brings Sense to Point Shaving Debate

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ALPHARETTA, GA—Joe Duffy is the leading authority on sports gaming strategy and issues related to sports betting. An expert guest on several nationally syndicated radio programs, his articles have appeared on top websites and publications all over the world.

Since the bombshell that NBA ref Tim Donaghy is being investigated in a gambling scandal, speculation on how he may have affected the betting outcome of games has been rampant. Veteran sports betting expert Joe Duffy brings an educated view.

Articles related to recent scandals involving possible point shaving include:

A Fair and Balanced View of Tim Donaghy’s Latest Claims

Sadly though, early returns of the court of public opinion suggest Donaghy’s indoctrination has been met with initial success. While Donaghy skillfully planted confirmation bias to put the NBA on the defensive, the burden of proof is on him to substantiate, not the league to negate.

NBA Totals Would Be the Easiest For Maverick Ref to Exploit

I will try a different approach of getting into the mind of a potential game fixer. If hypothetically I wanted to influence the betting outcome of an NBA game with the aid of an NBA ref, how would I do it without leaving telltale signs?

Rampant Speculation about Donaghygate

As an example, an “expert” often quoted on ESPN.com asserts that 13 games last year in which Donaghy officiated were within one-point of the spread. Does ESPN use a fact checker? According the game log as published on that same ESPN.com, the number is actually 11, not 13. But fudging the number by more than 18 percent makes a much sexier story.

Blackmail, Not Just Bribery Can Lead to Pointshaving

Most seem to assume pointspread chicanery is limited to giving money to an athlete, coach or official in return for altering the betting result of a game. This is not necessarily so.

Response To Professor’s Contention About Point Shaving

The pointspread is not and will never be a prediction on the outcome of the game. It is a “prediction” on what the spread needs to be to get as close to an equal amount of money on each side. The public loves betting superior against bottom shelf squads and this is accounted for in the line.

It is Good to Pick Bad

Every wannabe detective thinks they found the statistical smoking gun that Tim Donaghy pointshaved games. These conclusions are based in no small part on the epiphany that big underdogs cover at a disproportionate rate. No kidding, sharp players have known that for years.

ABOUT JOE DUFFY:

Joe Duffy is CEO of AJA Enterprises, which produces many of the top sites in the sports betting industry: OffshoreInsiders.com, JoeDuffy.net, Lines-Maker.com and others. He is founding GM of Scorephone.com/Freescoreboard.com, which was the nation’s premier audiotext sports information source.

ABOUT OFFSHOREINSIDERS.COM:

OffshoreInsiders.com is the premier source for free sports picks, live betting odds, real time sports scores and free sports gaming information. The Network includes ScoresOddsPicks.com, JoeDuffy.net , BetOnSports360.com, and Lines-Maker.com

MEDIA NOTE:

Radio, TV, print and Internet media are free to quote any articles written by Joe Duffy. Please attribute to Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com Duffy is available for media inquires by contacting him at joeduffy@joeduffy.net

Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Big News and Notes For the CFB Sports Gambler

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The premier sports handicapping experts of Covers-Experts.com
take a look at some early betting news and notes for the first week of college
football.

Tennessee-California

It’s of course a huge revenge game for the Golden
Bears. Last year, the Volunteers crushed
Cal in the season opener 35-18. Cal
returns 16 starters, eight on one of the top offenses in the country.

UL Lafayette-South Carolina

South Carolina
free safety Emanuel Cook, an All-SEC selection last year as a freshman, is
suspended as is Gamecocks starting quarterback Blake Mitchell.

Washington State-Wisconsin

New Badgers quarterback Tyler Donovan has only two starts
under his belt. However, he does have
proven playmakers returning to help with his transition: tight ends Travis Beckum and Andy Crooks, tailback P.J.
Hill and wideouts Paul Hubbard and Luke Swan.

Utah-Oregon State

The Utes were to return 10 starters on offense. On the
other hand, offensive lineman Jason Boone was lost for the season. According to
Stevie Vincent, “All reports are that Utah is much more prepared for the season then they were last
year.” Vincent has replaced football handicapper Dr. Bob Stohl
as the lead betting source for large betting syndicates.

Kansas State-Auburn

Moneyline bettors will want to note that Auburn
is 11-1 in home night games this century, including four wins to nationally
ranked teams. They’ve won 12-of-14 and 20 of their last 23 SU at home. However, note that Auburn
must replace RB Kenny Irons and their all-time
leading receiver Courtney Taylor. Returning
players accounted for only 42.5 percent of their rushing yards last year and
55.6 percent of their receptions. Also four starters are gone from their
offensive line.

Eastern Michigan-Pittsburgh

EMU was 1-11 last year and has lost 35 straight games
straight up to BCS conference teams. Eastern
Michigan though has a more proven QB as their starter Andy Schmitt
started 7-of-12 games last year. Pittsburgh
has a virgin QB Bill Stull and a rebuilt linebacking
unit.

Marshall-Miami

Master college football handicapper Joe Duffy of GodsTips
reports that new Miami coach Randy
Shannon plans on playing both true and redshirt freshman. “That backdoor could
be wide open” says Duffy of a potential pointspread cover for Marshall,
while the Hurricanes are breaking in the new talent.

Premium college football sports service plays are
available from the nation’s top ranked sports handicapping experts at OffshoreInsiders.com

 


Sports Betting News

Hillary Clinton Likely Dem Nominee For US President

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Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite to win the
2008 Democratic nomination for US President according to one of the leading sportsbooks. Clinton
is a prohibitive -275 favorite. Master
handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com
is best known as the top American sports punter and sports betting
handicapper, but has shown to be quite fair and balanced in political
handicapping as well.

“This far removed from the primary elections; I do not
remember a non-incumbent who was this close to being a betting lock” says the sports
betting expert of Mrs. Clinton.

BetUs
Sportsbook lists Barack Obama next at +190. The only potential presidential
candidate who could beat Clinton
for the Democratic nomination is Al Gore.
The former Vice President under popular Democratic two-term President
Bill Clinton, Gore has not declared his candidacy.

Bumbling John Edwards is +700 according to the
oddsmakers. Dark horses include Joseph Biden at +2500, Mike Gravel at +3500 and Bill Richardson at
+3500. Gadfly Dennis Kucinich is given as much chance of winning as Michael
Vick. There are betting odds on neither.

While the war on terror is the main issue in the campaign,
let’s hope the winner has views on legal sports gambling that are in the same
camp as Ron Paul, another dark, dark horse presidential hopeful or even in tune
with the pro online gambling views of Libertarian Wayne Root.

Root, a former employee of Jim Feist, owns a sports
betting site.


Sports Betting News

Chances of Vick Playing In NFL Again Are 100 Percent

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If only the oddsmakers were as clueless as the media
scribes and the talking suits. Why can’t Mike Lupica,
Len Pasquarelli or one of their minions such as Oscar
Dooley post the online sports betting odds on whether and when Michael Vick
will play again?

After hearing all the doomsday predications about Mike
Vick’s future, I was disappointed to see that BetUs
Sportsbook has much more reasonable odds of even money on “Will M Vick ever
throw another pass as an NFL QB?”

Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com
says, “Let me make this perfectly clear. Barring an act of God, the chances of Vick
playing in the NFL again are 100 percent.”

Multi-millionaires, with a dream team collection of
lawyers, do not serve long jail terms. This is especially when the victims are
not human beings. Leonard Little killed a person when driving drunk. He’s still in the NFL.

Ray Lewis was charged with murder—also of a human being. With high society attorneys, he was able to
plead down. Now the same hacks who are
writing Vick’s professional obituary tell us how Lewis is one of the great
leaders in the NFL.

How long with the NFL suspend Vick? The online sportsbook
betting odds of one-to-six months is tempting at +10,000 though admittedly it
will likely be longer.

But let’s get back to having to bet only -120 with the
juice as to No. 7 playing again. Vick will find religion, declare his
repentance and most importantly assert how much he’s matured. The lifelong
underachiever’s insistence that’s he’s grown up with be music to the ears of
any coach or GM in need of a quarterback.

I’m still searching to see if any of the online sports
betting outfits will post long odds on which team Vick will play for. Falcons’
owner Arthur Blank has a lot of his Home Depot residuals invested in Vick.

When Vick said it was head coach Dan Reeves responsible
for his shortcomings, Blank fired Reeves.
Then the Falcons’ signal caller threw Reeves successor Jim Mora, Jr.
under the bus. Mora became unemployed.

Blank can talk the tough talk now, but he will be first in
line to forgive and forget the kid he’s coddled since the day the twain met.
Plus while Vick spends minimal time in the federal detention center, the Dirty
Birds will lose more than enough to draft a blue chip wide receiver as the
yellow ribbon ‘round Vick’s old oak tree.

Vick starts more games the rest of his career than Joey
Harrington does.


Sports Betting News

How Will Donaghy Scandal Affect Sports Betting?

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When the Tim Donaghy scandal broke, NBA Commissioner David
Stern held his somber press conference concerning the alleged “rogue, isolated
criminal”. Sounding more like Howard
Stern, David clearly has replaced Senator Bill Frist as the current poster
child for online sports betting hypocrisy.

Stern asserted that is was his understanding the Donaghy
and his associates bets were “not placed in Vegas”. It’s been inferred, but not
yet confirmed, that Donaghy’s bets were placed at
online offshore sportsbooks.

However, thanks to Senator Frist and his infringement on
gambling civil liberties and self-responsibility, the sharp sports bettor has
more advantages in pointspread betting than in the recent past. “More and more
of the betting wise guys and sports gambling syndicates are returning to the
corner bookie” says Vegas insider Cy McCormick of
MasterLockLine.com.

The result is both offshore sportsbooks and Las
Vegas casinos will have less access to sharp versus
square information, hence the advantage to beating the NFL odds and college
football betting lines for football bettors.

A few years ago, Dr. Bob Stohl,
who appropriately enough operates Dr. Bob Sports, was all the rage among sports
gamblers. Several betting syndicates
would move tens of thousands of dollars on his picks. Offshore sportsbook directors often called it
the “Dr. Bob Factor.” Betting odds were
moved several points based purely on Stohl’s sports handicapping picks.

This phenomenon was seen a decade or so previous on the
Las Vegas Strip with Doc’s Enterprises.
Once a cutting edge sports betting analyst and one of the foremost Vegas
advisors, Doc’s Big 10 plays would move the Las Vegas
betting line several points. Since then, a lesser known sports tout, Bill
Tanner has become the top Big 10 betting expert.

It was déjà vu in recent years with Dr. Bob Stohl. Luckily for the sportsbooks, Dr. Bob proved to be
not much of a sports betting expert and the bookmakers
cleaned up thanks to his sub .500 sports wagers. Since then, most betting
syndicates have become disciples of forensic handicapping founder Stevie
Vincent of BetOnSports360.com.

Major sportsbooks have offered
Vincent incentive to release his plays to Costa Rican oddsmakers before he does
his clients, but Vincent insists this is not an option. “They can purchase my
plays and have equal access” but Vincent is a professional gambler himself and
has refused overtures to be a double agent.

True, the oddsmakers may catch up to Vincent’s techniques
the way they had with Doc’s Enterprises and Doctor Bob, but especially with
betting over/unders, Vincent’s winning has rate never been seen before in the
sports betting circles.

Even smaller players can get free sports handicapping
information in beating the NFL pointspread as the famed “Tailgate Party” is at
BettorsAdvice.com this year. It is the
same information that previously was on the local and toll-free scorephones:
NFL real-time injuries, live weather radar, free sports service picks, insight
from professional sport handicappers and more.

Simply put, the sports bettor adjusts to the changes in
the landscape. All gamblers should be
furious at the anti-online sportsbook and online casino climate. Yet clearly the professional gambler can turn
a huge negative into a positive with the aforesaid Vegas edge.


Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Rampant Speculation About Donaghygate

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Everyone, this author included, has theories on the precise details of how rebel NBA ref Tim Donaghy may have affected the outcome of games in which he officiated. Theories by definition are conjecture.  They need only be plausible using the known facts. Even reasonable suppositions may not prove to be 100 percent correct.

There are many rational hypotheses on the scandal and then again, there is other guesswork that can easily have holes poked through it. There are a small number of postulators who, to their credit, have been able to gravy train this scandal into purporting themselves as gambling experts. Unfortunately, to the more seasoned and authentic authorities in sports gambling, too often the notions of the squeakier wheels may get the oil even if the views rarely hold water.

At the very least the more seasoned are much less apt to scream proof in the crowded theatre of nattering nabobs.  The USA Today’s Danny Sheridan correctly observes, “You can make all kind of cases with numbers. But if you have the exact games, then it’s like black and white.”

As an example, an “expert” often quoted on ESPN.com asserts that 13 games last year in which Donaghy officiated were within one-point of the spread.  Does ESPN use a fact checker?  According the game log as published on that same ESPN.com, the number is actually 11, not 13. But fudging the number by more than 18 percent makes a much sexier story.

Thanks for proving the oddsmakers are adept, damn savvy in fact.  Any two bit gambler was aware of this bombshell.  To embellish on a line from the Simpson’s, it seems to me a rather obvious find from a rather mediocre genius.   This discovery was classic dog bites man though some gullible media saps bought it hook, line and sinker as man bites dog.

If even a higher percentage of games were going down to the pointspread wire with Donaghy, this would be evidence that he likely did not, repeat not affect the outcome.  How anyone could imply the opposite is beyond me.

However, if a forensic statistician found that Donaghy had the highest percentage of games that were not even close to the pointspread, that would be a potential straw in the wind unlike the polar opposite (non) finding.

But wait, the “betting expert” has all his bases covered.  He found that in games Donaghy officiated in 2007, the average number of points was 13 point higher than the average posted total.

So the “smoking gun” is too many games were too close to the pointspread, but then again, the other smoking gun is that too many over/unders were not close to the pointspread. The ghost of Joe McCarthy lives and the legacy of Mike Nifong thrive.

The so-called gambling experts seem to be missing the point, though cynics will tell you the only point is that the worst publicity is no publicity for wannabes. After all, no purported conclusive evidence means no real story and no media exposure.

Granted, we still do not know every detail, and perhaps never will regarding the Tim Donaghy scandal. However, from what we have seen so far, it appears point shaving was likely not as commonplace and may not even be part of the criminal allegations against him.

We do know for a fact that he supplied “inside information”. As a gambler who handicaps games legitimately,  I can assure you that we are always, always looking for an “edge”—any and all major advantages—over the long-run.  Getting “inside information” does not mean we bet the mortgage on a particular sporting event, but it can increase our long-term winning percentage.

Examples are the injury status of a key player.  Shaquille O’Neal, Dwayne Wade and Pau Gasol are instances of star players whose game time status was often uncertain to the gambler.  However, Donaghy would have access to unpublished injury information, the type of privy data that would give a gambler a huge upper hand.

As another example, perhaps a team was playing five contests in seven nights and their flight into town was delayed four hours, they got to town at 11:00 A.M. on game day.  Knowing when situations like this occur would also provide bettors with a huge edge.

Simply “if”, any player, coach or ref were involved in point shaving, it is highly doubtful if his chicanery would result in the final scores being disproportionately close to the spread.  It would be quite the opposite.

So of the two bodies of evidence thrown against the wall by the err “betting expert,” one that says too many games were close to the number and the other that says too many games were not close to the number, the latter is much more likely to stick.

My educated estimation, based on what I heard so far, is that Donaghy supplied the gamblers version of “insider trading” as illustrated above.  Game day unpublished information would be the holy grail for sharp players, and it appears that is exactly what Donaghy supplied.

When the specific contests that Donaghy bet on comes out, of course an inordinate percentage will be in matches he officiated.  The Johnny-come-lately experts will scream there is the damning evidence they knew was coming.

Not so fast.  Of course Donaghy is going to have access to inside information on a game when he’s already on site.  How can he do undercover work on a matchup that is 400 miles from his own two eyes and ears?

While even those of us who refuse to jump to rash conclusions will appropriately muse, “How could he possibly be objective in a game in which he has five dimes riding?” this is far from proof that he consciously influenced the outcome.

Don’t get me wrong, Donaghy is clearly guilty of going well over the line of any and all codes of conduct, but I am quite confident those hell bent in proving a made-for-television conspiracy will only continue to make  leaps of faith that may not be backed by the evidence.  A scenario in which he acquired inside information on games other those he was to officiate would be a shocking turn of events to the true “betting experts”.

Reasonable speculation is human nature.  Salacious gossip backed merely by fuzzy math is irresponsible. ESPN.com proves to be the worldwide leader in tittle-tattle.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com He has written hundreds of articles on sports gaming, published on many of the top websites and in leading publications around the world and has been an expert guest on several national radio shows including Sporting News Network.