All posts by Joe Duffy

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Breaking News: Saturday College Football Sharp Betting

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Here is your Saturday sharp report. We have no question about the hottest football service. One on the MasterLockLine is off to one of the great starts in years. See below. Please note that the line moves are based on world openers. Some consider opening line when all bookies have one, AKA “widely available” opening line. Many love world opener for power lines and other purposes.

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Oklahoma, Louisville, Oklahoma State, Charlotte, Ohio State, UCF, Virginia

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Louisville, Charlotte, Oklahoma, Michigan State

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Georgia State, Middle Tennessee State at MyBookie

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Central Florida +2.5 to -9, Oklahoma -12 to -23, Clemson -17 to -27.5, Michigan State -7.5 to -15.5.

Free pick preview

Top expert pick on today’s card is from MasterLockLine. #1 college football handicapper this season based on winning percentage, plus ranked top 10 college football all-time as well as last 14 years and last seven years, a handicapper out of Tampa does well with all teams and conferences but has many beat writer and broadcaster contacts with Florida based teams. Non-Conference Parlay of the Year Stanford vs. UCF 

Without debate hottest service on earth is #1 college football service this season is 18-4-2 including Kansas and OVER last night in college football. Three sides, two totals Saturday. One side agrees with above side on Biggest Play. Get a free sports service bet, which also has the full menu, then Get the picks now

Sports Betting News

College Football Week 3 Picks

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Week 3 college football betting is here. So much money to be made for sure. We start out with straight up betting picks. Win your office pool or win a ton of money at the sportsbooks on the moneyline. Bovada has money lines up now to be exploited.

The Hilltoppers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Week 3 games, while Louisville are a stellar 11-4 in their last 15 games played in Week 3 of the season.
College Football Week 3 Betting Trends
Hilltoppers are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games
Hilltoppers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in week 3
Louisville are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games

More details below

Super sharp players continue to exploit over-under bets at a stunning rate.

They have seen their last 4 games go the way of the UNDER, while also seeing 4 of their last 6 games played in September go the same way. I think we are looking at a comfortable win and the UNDER.

College Football Week 3 Betting Trends
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Mexico’s last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Notre Dame’s last 5 games

See more below

One of the great bets and one of the most intriguing lines of the week is Stanford-Central Florida as well at Texas and Rice. Hint, the intel released in this video moved the line at MyBookie and all sportsbooks.

Joe Duffy has ten college football Saturday led by three Wise Guys. Sunday, four NFL added and more coming! It’s all at OffshoreInsiders.com 

J

Sports Betting News

Sharp NFL and College Football Bets Entering TNF

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Sharp money bets from the sources of OffshoreInsiders.com as of Thursday. We will update for Saturday and Sunday action. Holy crap. Joe Duffy’s Picks is the best service off all-time (widely agreed) and now the hottest. On fire! I am 11-2 overall including winners of +148 (twice), 128, and 129! We are 13-5 NFL since preseason, including sweeping late NFL and MNF. NFL side Thursday. Three day, three night MLB. The night includes IL Game of the Month. I am simply the greatest handicapper off all-time and volcanic.   Get the picks now

College football:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Louisville

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Ohio State, Georgia State, Louisiana Tech, Louisville

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Illinois, Middle Tennessee State, Texas State at MyBookie NFL live lines, latest odds

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Oklahoma -12 to -23.5, Clemson -17 to -28, Michigan State -7.5 to -14, Central Michigan -6 to -1 (CMU QB Dormandy, RB Jonathan Ward out)

NFL:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Dallas, Cleveland, Chicago, LA Chargers, Philadelphia (ALL road favorites), Carolina (biggest not a road favorite)

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Dallas, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Jacksonville (road dog), Carolina at Bovada live NFL lines

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Oakland, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: New England -14.5 to -18.5, NY Giants -2.5 to 1.5, Denver -1.5 to +2.5

 

Sports Betting News

Tampa vs. Carolina Thursday Night Football Betting Picks Preview

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It’s Thursday Night Football as Tampa Bay Buccaneers undertake the Carolina Panthers. Carolina is -7 (-105) at Bovada live NFL lines with a total of 49 and moneyline of -320 with a +260 on the road team. Lines of -6.5 but higher juice are also accessible. The odds debuted at -6.5 and 51 but juiced to the under at Betonline.

In a rare status, the percentages of bets equal the proportions of money stakes as 83 percent of the public using each criterion favors Carolina. Fifty-nine percent of wagers are on the under, while the money is equally split on the total. Each team is 0-1 SU and ATS with Tampa going under their opening game and Carolina exceeding the total.

When two winless teams clash, the underdog covers at an imposing 91-69-5 ratio, with the winning percentage slightly finer on the road. Most profitable betting systems and formulas would fit under the umbrella of “counterintuitive.” A good example is a totals angle that applies in this situation. Carolina is off game 57 points scored, Tampa following one 48. At least the arithmetic would imply a total higher than 50 should be posted here.

However, we have an angle based on overreaction that applies and goes UNDER 1428-1186-55. This is an example of using betting formulas to use oddsmakers knowledge against them.

Underdogs a week after allowing two defensive touchdowns are 40-23 ATS, favoring Tampa. The logic is straightforward. Defensive scores are somewhat good fortune and are challenging to duplicate, helping isolate deceptive final scores. Tampa head coach Bruce Arians came out of retirement with the number one goal to turn around the career of inconsistent underachiever Jameis Winston. The Tampa QB’s problems seem to be more a result of his ability to make proper life decisions and little to do with football-related issues.

Carolina signal Cam Newton changed his mechanics and could be a work in progress as he adjusts to a new throwing motion. Panthers star TE Greg Olsen is questionable. The often-injured start played only 16 games last two years with 44 catches. He did tell NFL.com that he intends to play Thursday. Long-time veteran LB Bruce Irvin has been ruled out for Carolina.

For Tampa, five-year veteran DE Rakeem Nunez-Roches is probable after leaving the Niners game after 14 snaps thanks to a thumb-injury. Buccaneers LB Devin White was slowed down in game 1 with an illness, though he still managed six tackles. He is back to full health. Weather will not be a factor.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from NFL Thursday, two college football Friday led by a Wise Guy! Ten college football Saturday led by three Wise Guys at OffshoreInsiders.com.

Against the spread trends: Carolina is 2-7 overall going back to last season, 1-6 on grass. The underdog is 5-1 in the series, the road team 7-3.

Over-under trends: Tampa has gone over 13-3-1 on the road. Carolina under 19-9 at home versus an opponent with a losing road record.

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Texas vs. Rice Betting Picks Preview with @JeffNadu

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Texas plays Rice in a neutral site game and Jeff Nadu and Joe Duffy preview the contest. Texas is -32 at Bovada with a total of 56.5 after opening at -30.5 and 57.5 Betonline, home of the opening line.

Eighty-two percent of tickets written are on Texas as well as 89 percent of the money. Though 55 percent of bets are on the under, 52 percent of money is on the over. It is early, so check Twitter sports betting for updates later in the week.

Joe Duffy already has Thursday NFL and Friday college football winners at the top sports betting website.

Texas 2-8-1 after allowing less than 275 total yards in previous game. Texas has gone under 25-11.

Sports Betting News

Big Line Changes Super Bowl, NCAAF Title, Heisman Overreaction Detailed

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Championship odds are on the move with two weeks of college football completed and the first week of the NFL almost in the books.

On Monday, SportsBetting updated its NFL futures odds for the Super Bowl, conferences and divisions. It also set fresh odds for the CFP Championship and Heisman Trophy.

Notable changes in the odds from last week to today are highlighted.

Also below is a slew of Antonio Brown props including whether or not he or Josh Gordon will be suspended, season-long and Week 2 stats and MVP odds.

Super Bowl movements:

Patriots went from 7-1 to 4-1
Bears went from 12-1 to 20-1
Browns went from 16-1 to 25-1
Steelers went from 16-1 to 28-1
Cowboys went from 25-1 to 16-1
Vikings went from 25-1 to 16-1
Jaguars went from 25-1 to 50-1
Falcons went from 28-1 to 40-1
Ravens went from 33-1 to 25-1
Panthers went from 33-1 to 50-1
Jets went from 66-1 to 80-1
Giants went from 80-1 to 100-1
Raiders went from 50-1 to 150-1
Dolphins went from 150-1 to 250-1

(Full odds below)

College Football Playoff movements:

Michigan went from 9-1 to 20-1
Ohio State went from 12-1 to 9-1
Texas went from 15-1 to 40-1
LSU went from 25-1 to 14-1
Utah went from 33-1 to 25-1
Penn State went from 50-1 to 33-1
Nebraska went from 66-1 to 100-1
UCF went  from 200-1 to 100-1

(Full odds below)

Jalen Hurts went into the season with the third-best Heisman odds at 8-1. Following Oklahoma’s season opener, his odds dropped to 5-1. After another strong showing this past weekend, Hurts has now surpassed Trevor Lawrence and is second on the board at 3-1.
 

Daily winning picks from 32 year veteran Joe Duffy at OffshoreInsiders.com

Heisman odds

 

Tua Tagovailoa 

5-2

Jalen Hurts 

3-1

Trevor Lawrence 

4-1

Jake Fromm 

12-1

Sam Ehlinger 

12-1

D’Andre Swift 

16-1

Justin Fields 

16-1

Joe Burrow 

18-1

Jonathan Taylor 

22-1

Shea Patterson 

22-1

Justin Herbert 

25-1

Travis Etienne 

25-1

Jerry Jeudy 

33-1

Ian Book 

50-1


Going into Week 2 of the NFL regular season, the Patriots find themselves as historic favorites.

New England is a 17-point favorite at Miami next Sunday. This marks the first time in a decade that there has been a road favorite of 14.5 points or more (Colts at Rams, 2009).

During the Patriots’ perfect 2007 season, they were favored by 14.5 points or more on the road four times. They went 4-0 straight up and 2-2 against the spread in those games. All four games went over the total.

12/29/07 at NYG (+14.5)
12/3/07 at BAL (+19)
11/18/07 at BUF (+16)
10/21/07 at MIA (+15.5)

Since 1984, there have been 19 road favorites of 14.5 points or more. The favorites are 17-2 in those games.

Antonio Brown props

Who will be suspended or cut first by Patriots?
Antonio Brown +250
Josh Gordon +225
Neither Player -200

Will Antonio Brown be with Patriots in Week 17?
Yes -500
No +300

Will Antonio Brown be with Patriots in Week 1 next season?
Yes -200
No +150

Antonio Brown receiving yards in Week 2 vs. Dolphins
Over 75.5
Under 75.5

Antonio Brown receiving yards in Week 2 vs. Dolphins
Over 6
Under 6

Will Antonio Brown score a touchdown in Week 2 vs. Dolphins?
Yes -130
No +100

Antonio Brown receiving yards during 2019 regular season
Over 1,100
Under 1,100

Antonio Brown receiving touchdowns during 2019 regular season
Over 9.5
Under 9.5

Antonio Brown receptions during 2019 regular season
Over 89.5
Under 89.5

Will Antonio Brown be Super Bowl LIV MVP?
Yes +2000
No -5000

Will the Patriots go 16-0?
Yes +1000
No -2500

Will the Patriots go 19-0?
Yes +2000

No -5000

 

Super Bowl odds

 

New England Patriots

4-1

Kansas City Chiefs

7-1

New Orleans Saints

9-1

Los Angeles Rams

12-1

Philadelphia Eagles

12-1

Los Angeles Chargers

14-1

Green Bay Packers

16-1

Dallas Cowboys

16-1

Minnesota Vikings

16-1

Chicago Bears

20-1

Cleveland Browns

25-1

Houston Texans

25-1

Seattle Seahawks

25-1

San Francisco 49ers

25-1

Baltimore Ravens

25-1

Pittsburgh Steelers

28-1

Atlanta Falcons

40-1

Tennessee Titans

40-1

Jacksonville Jaguars

50-1

Carolina Panthers

50-1

Indianapolis Colts

66-1

Buffalo Bills

66-1

Denver Broncos

66-1

New York Jets

80-1

Detroit Lions

100-1

New York Giants

100-1

Arizona Cardinals

100-1

Washington Redskins

100-1

Oakland Raiders

150-1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

150-1

Cincinnati Bengals

150-1

Miami Dolphins

250-1

 

AFC odds

 

 

NFC odds

 

New England Patriots

2-1

 

New Orleans Saints

5-1

Kansas City Chiefs

3-1

 

Los Angeles Rams

11-2

Los Angeles Chargers

7-1

 

Philadelphia Eagles

13-2

Cleveland Browns

12-1

 

Chicago Bears

10-1

Houston Texans

12-1

 

Green Bay Packers

8-1

Pittsburgh Steelers

14-1

 

Dallas Cowboys

8-1

Jacksonville Jaguars

25-1

 

Minnesota Vikings

8-1

Baltimore Ravens

12-1

 

Seattle Seahawks

12-1

Indianapolis Colts

33-1

 

Atlanta Falcons

20-1

Oakland Raiders

80-1

 

San Francisco 49ers

12-1

Tennessee Titans

20-1

 

Carolina Panthers

25-1

Buffalo Bills

33-1

 

New York Giants

50-1

Denver Broncos

33-1

 

Detroit Lions

50-1

New York Jets

40-1

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

80-1

Cincinnati Bengals

80-1

 

Arizona Cardinals

50-1

Miami Dolphins

150-1

 

Washington Redskins

50-1

 

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

Patriots -800

Steelers +175

Texans +175

Chiefs -200

Bills +800

Ravens +200

Titans +200

Chargers +225

Jets +1000

Browns +200

Jaguars +400

Broncos +1000

Dolphins +10000

Bengals +1400

Colts +400

Raiders +2500

 

 

 

 

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

Eagles -150

Packers +175

Saints -200

Rams -150

Cowboys +150

Vikings +175

Falcons +400

Seahawks +275

Redskins +1600

Bears +250

Panthers +500

49ers +400

Giants +2000

Lions +1000

Bucs +1400

Cardinals +2500

 

CFP odds

 

Clemson  

5-2

Alabama  

3-1

Georgia 

7-1

Oklahoma  

9-1

Michigan  

20-1

Ohio State 

9-1

Texas  

40-1

LSU  

14-1

Florida  

33-1

Utah  

25-1

Oregon  

40-1

Washington  

100-1

Notre Dame 

50-1

Auburn  

25-1

Texas A&M  

50-1

Penn State  

33-1

Nebraska  

100-1

Maryland

100-1

Miami 

250-1

Wisconsin  

40-1

Mississippi State  

80-1

USC  

50-1

TCU  

80-1

Stanford  

250-1

Michigan State  

66-1

Virginia Tech  

125-1

Iowa  

100-1

Florida State  

250-1

Syracuse  

250-1

Washington State  

80-1

Baylor  

125-1

Memphis  

125-1

Virginia  

80-1

Army  

500-1

UCF  

100-1

Kentucky  

150-1

Iowa State  

250-1

Purdue  

250-1

SMU  

150-1

Minnesota

250-1

NC State

250-1

Utah State  

250-1

Temple  

250-1

Texas Tech

250-1

Northwestern

250-1

Western Michigan 

500-1

Marshall  

500-1

Hawaii  

150-1

Wyoming 

125-1

UAB  

150-1