All posts by Joe Duffy

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Sharp Moves, Public Bets, NFL and College Entering Thursday Night Football

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Entering TNF, here are the biggest public and sharp bets and the biggest line moves. Huge weekend of winners from Joe Duffy up at OffshoreInsiders.com   

CFB

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Baylor, LSU, Oregon, Old Dominion

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Old Dominion, Baylor, Ohio State, Ole Miss

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Ohio, Air Force, Ole Miss, Indiana

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds (preseason): Wisconsin +5.5 to -3.5, Central Florida -2.5 to -11.5, Oregon -1.5 to -10.5, Florida State P to -6.5 at MyBookie

NFL

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets (not blindly road favorites): LA Rams, New England, Dallas, Seattle, 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Dallas, LA Rams, Houston

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Washington, Baltimore (v. KC), New Orleans (no Brees), Denver

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds (based on preseason lines): New England -10 to -22.5, Dallas -15 to -22.5, Arizona +3.5 to -2.5 (Newton) at Bovada live NFL lines

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Week 3 NFL ATS Picks, Parlay, Moneyline, Totals Locks

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Professional gamblers are licking their chops about week 3 NFL picks and betting tips. MyBookie NFL odds are posted and here are some super sharp tips and betting advice. Follow the Twitter sports bettingfeed for breaking gambling, sports handicapping, and wagering intel 

Some betting trends of note:

  • New England is 41-15 ATS at home
  • San Francisco is 1-13-2 ATS as home favorites 
  • Baltimore is 9-1 to the number as road underdogs
  • Pittsburgh has gone under 28-9 on the road
  • Denver has gone under 11 straight games
  • The Chiefs have gone under 49-19-5 at home

To moneyline and straight up betting. Win your office pool and also make a fortune gambling. Make sure you check at JoeDuffy.net Saturday and Sunday morning to check the updated super sharp report for both college Saturday and NFL Sunday.

On the other side, Patrick Mahomes has picked up where he left off last season, so this one should be a thriller. There are a couple of reasons to like the Chiefs here, starting with the fact that they have won 8 of their last 10 at home. They are also 9-2 SU in their last 11 games versus conference foes.
NFL Week 3 Betting Trends
Ravens are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
Ravens are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played in September
Chiefs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
Chiefs are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against an opponent in the AFC conference

See link below for all the details

Joe Duffy has Sunday, 10 NFL plus Monday Night Football winners Get the picks now    

Now let’s focus on beating the NFL lines for week 3 totals betting.

Every team in the NFL goes out of their way to ensure that their key personnel make it out of preseason with getting hurt. Some teams even go as far as making their starting QB sit out the 4 games played in preseason. Whether that’s a good idea or not is always up for debate, but the reality is that you cannot protect players once the real action begins. Just ask the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have now lost QB Ben Roethlisberger for the season with an elbow injury that will require surgery.

Full article below

Of course the most popular is betting against the point spread and we definitely have that.

You couldn’t have two teams any further apart after just two weeks of the season. The have lost their opening 2 games, surrendering a total of 102 points in the process. On the flipside, you have the Cowboys are coming into Week 3 after winning their first two games. Their offense is clicking and averaging 33 PPG to this point.
The Dolphins have now failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games, while the Cowboys are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12. It looks to me like the Dolphins are onto another thumping this coming Sunday.

Full bettor’s report below

Parlay betting has the highest return and here is a peak at your best parlay wagers.

Could be that top running back James Conner is out for a while too. He was to undergo tests to determine the severity of his injured knee Monday. Conner went down late in Sunday’s loss to Seattle but not before contributing 45 yards (33 rushing, 12 receiving) and a touchdown on 13 touches. Jaylen Samuels would take his place.
The 49ers improved to 2-0 with a win in Cincinnati on Sunday. Jimmy Garoppolo completed 17-of-25 passes for 297 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. Matt Breida rushed 12 times for 121 yards in the win. With Tevin Coleman out, Breida started and was the featured back.

Spread betting preview below

Top ATS trends for this week:


Sports Betting News

@JeffNadu and Joe Duffy Break Down Oregon vs. Stanford

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Oregon-Stanford preview from Jeff Nadu, the Big Man on Campus and legendary handicapper Joe Duffy. Oregon is laying 10.5 with a total of 58.5 at Bovada with a total of 58.5. The contest opened the Ducks laying 8 with a total of 60.5.

A stunning 88 percent of bettors and 89 percent of wagers are on the OVER. Even more earth-shattering is that 75 percent of bets and 99 percent of cash is on the under.

Saturday, SEC West Total of the Year among four college football Wise Guys and seven Majors. Sunday, 10 NFL plus Monday Night Football. Get the picks now

Sports Betting News

Friday Night Betting Pick Air Force vs. Boise State

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Air Force takes on Boise State Friday night and the top football handicapper Joe Duffy has the spread winner. Boise State is down to -8 with a total of 55. They opened up at -9.5 and 54. Underdog Air Force is getting 52 percent of bets and 76 percent of money on them. Though 55 percent of bets are on the over, the same 55 percentile of money is on the under.

Joe Duffy has Friday night college football total at sports betting picks headquarters.

Sports Betting News

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Pick and Wagering Tips Preview With @JeffNadu

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The Big Man on Campus and Campus and Joe Duffy (nice thumbnail) preview perhaps the best game of the weekend with Notre Dame and Georgia. UGA is -14.5 with a total of 58.5 at MyBookie after opening at just -11.5 at Betonline, home of the opening line. The debut total has 58.

Sixty-six percent of bets and 74 percent of cash are on Georgia. A split on the total sees 56 percent of tickets on the under, yet 63 of money bet on the over.

Expert handicapper Joe Duffy has a big weekend. Saturday, SEC West Total of the Year among four college football Wise Guys and seven Majors. Sunday, 10 NFL plus Monday Night Football. Get the picks now

Sports Betting News

SportsBetting Sportsbook Says Chiefs, Patriots Favorites to Get Jalen Ramsey

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The Chiefs and Patriots are the favorites to acquire the services of Jalen Ramsey, should Jacksonville trade the embattled cornerback.

Along with those odds, SportsBetting has set lines for a number of interesting prop bets heading into Week 3.

When will certain quarterbacks on the hot seat be benched, how will Dolphins players and management react to tanking, will injured/elderly players retire, Colin Kaepernick and Tim Tebow futures are just a few of the fun props on the board.

Player props involving Adam Vinatieri, Daniel Jones, Teddy Bridgewater, Mason Rudolph and Minkah Fitzpatrick are also below.

Jalen Ramsey next team
Chiefs +250
Patriots +500
Raiders +600
Titans +900
Saints +900
Eagles +1000
Packers +1000
Cowboys +1000
Chargers +1000
Seahawks +1000
49ers +1000

What week will Jameis Winston be benched? (Must be benched for action, non-injury related)
Before Week 11
After Week 11

What week will Joe Flacco be benched? (Must be benched for action, non-injury related)
Before Week 9
After Week 9

What week will Case Keenum be benched? (Must be benched for action, non-injury related)
Before Week 10
After Week 10

What week will Ryan Fitzpatrick be benched? (Must be benched for action, non-injury related)
Before Week 5
After Week 5

Will Eli Manning be traded during regular season?
Yes +500
No -1000

Will Eli Manning start another game this season?
Yes +200
No -300

Will Eli Manning retire after season?
Yes -150
No +110

Will Drew Brees retire after season?
Yes +200
No -300

Will Ben Roethlisberger retire after season?
Yes +300
No -500

Will cameras catch a Dolphins player eating on sidelines during a game?
Yes +300
No -500

Will cameras catch a Dolphins player using cell phone on sidelines during a game?
Yes +500
No -1000

Will a Dolphins player tweet during a game?
Yes +200
No -300

Will a Dolphins player be suspended?
Yes +200
No -300

How many Dolphins players will be traded before the deadline?
Over 4.5
Under 4.5

Will the Dolphins announce a sellout the rest of the season?
Yes +500
No -1000

Will the Dolphins partner with Bang Bros for a promotion during the season?
Yes +1500
No -3000

Will the Dolphins sign Colin Kaepernick?
Yes +1500
No -3000

Will the Dolphins sign Tim Tebow?
Yes +5000
No -10000

How many games will the Dolphins lose by 40 or more points?
Over 4
Under 4

Will the Dolphins lose by 40 or more points in Week 3?
Yes +700
No -1500

Highest margin of victory in Week 3
Patriots vs. Jets -130
Dolphins vs. Cowboys +100

What  will be higher in Week 3?
Patriots/Cowboys combined points scored -45.5
Jets/Dolphins combined points scored +45.5

Will the Dolphins go 0-16?
Yes +500
No -1000

Will the Patriots go 16-0?
Yes +600
No -1200

Will the Patriots go 19-0?
Yes +1200
No -2500

Will the Patriots have another shutout this season?
Yes +200
No -300

Will the Jets sign Colin Kaepernick?
Yes +1000
No -2500

Will Adam Vinatieri miss an extra point in Week 3?
Yes +300
No -500

Will Adam Vinatieri miss a field goal in Week 3?
Yes +100
No -140

Will Adam Vinatieri retire after the season?
Yes -150
No +110

Will Deshaun Watson be sacked 4 or more times in Week 3?
Yes +200
No -300

Will Minkah Fitzpatrick record an interception in Week 3?
Yes +500
No -800

Who will have more passing + rushing yards?
Patrick Mahomes +100
Lamar Jackson -130

 

Will FOX broadcast team say “Danny Dimes” during Giants’ Week 3 game?
Yes -150
No +110

Daniel Jones passing yards in Week 3
Over 210.5
Under 210.5

 

Mason Rudolph passing yards in Week 3
Over 250.5
Under 250.5

Mason Rudolph passing touchdowns in Week 3
Over 1.5
Under 1.5

Mason Rudolph interceptions in Week 3
Over .5
Under .5

Teddy Bridgewater passing yards in Week 3
Over 225.5
Under 225.5

Teddy Bridgewater passing touchdowns in Week 3
Over 1.5
Under 1.5

Teddy Bridgewater interceptions in Week 3
Over .5
Under .5

Of course the strongest daily best bets are on OffshoreInsiders.com