All posts by Joe Duffy

Rutgers vs. Michigan Betting Picks Preview With @JeffNadu

Superstar handicapper Joe Duffy previews Rutgers vs. Michigan on the super popular Big Man on Campus show. Rutgers is -27.5 with a total of 48 at MyBookie. It opened at -26 and 47.5. Sixty-six percent of bets and 82 percent of money is on Michigan.

Off another great week, going 18-6 in football including Thursday Night Total of the Year, SEC West Total of the Year. I am 26-12 NFL since preseason. Ten NFL Thursday through Monday, including Interconference Underdog of the Year and AFC Monday Night Game of the Year. We also have two college bets Thursday and Friday each and seven Saturday. Get the picks  from Joe Duffy.

Opening Odds Week 4 NFL Unleashed

Week 4 NFL opening lines from Betonline, home of the opening line. One could assert the Thursday Night Football line with banged up Philadelphia at Green Bay is one of the most interesting. Green Bay is -3. The historically high odds continue with the LA Chargers a stunning -16.5 on the road to Miami. OffshoreInsiders.com is always the place to go for premium picks.

08:20 PM

101

Philadelphia Eagles

3

100

48

-105

102

Green Bay Packers

-3

-120

48

-115

Sunday

01:00 PM

253

Cleveland Browns

+4½

-110

46½

-105

254

Baltimore Ravens

-4½

-110

46½

-115

01:00 PM

255

Washington Redskins

+2½

-110

46

-115

256

New York Giants

-2½

-110

46

-105

01:00 PM

257

Los Angeles Chargers

-16½

-110

45

-105

258

Miami Dolphins

+16½

-110

45

-115

01:00 PM

259

Oakland Raiders

6

-115

44

-110

260

Indianapolis Colts

-6

-105

44

-110

01:00 PM

261

Kansas City Chiefs

-5½

-115

53

-105

262

Detroit Lions

+5½

-105

53

-115

01:00 PM

263

New England Patriots

-6½

-110

44

-105

264

Buffalo Bills

+6½

-110

44

-115

01:00 PM

265

Tennessee Titans

+4½

-110

46½

-110

266

Atlanta Falcons

-4½

-110

46½

-110

04:05 PM

267

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9

-110

49

-105

268

Los Angeles Rams

-9

-110

49

-115

04:05 PM

269

Seattle Seahawks

-3

-115

46

-110

270

Arizona Cardinals

3

-105

46

-110

04:25 PM

271

Minnesota Vikings

3

-120

38½

-110

272

Chicago Bears

-3

100

38½

-110

04:25 PM

273

Jacksonville Jaguars

3

-105

38

-115

274

Denver Broncos

-3

-115

38

-105

08:20 PM

275

Dallas Cowboys

-2½

-125

45

-110

276

New Orleans Saints

+2½

105

45

-110

Mond

08:15 PM

277

Cincinnati Bengals

4

-110

43½

-110

278

Pittsburgh Steelers

-4

-110

43½

-110

NFL Morning Line Report: Injuries, Weather, Sharp vs. Square Betting

Critical NFL injuries, betting information, public consensus, sharp versus square and more. 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: LA Rams, Seattle

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: NY Giants, LA Rams, Carolina OVER 

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: New Orleans, New England UNDER at NFL live lines

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: (includes “Games of Year” lines posted before season): New England -10 to -21, Dallas -15.5 to -21.5, Arizona +3.5 to -2.5, San Francisco -1 to -6.5, Philadelphia -8.5 to -4.5, Seattle -1 to -5

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Stevie Vincent.  Last Sunday you swept with 3-0 led by Double Perfect on Indianapolis and two Perfect Plays. A Perfect Play is when a 100 percent angle involving at least 12 games applies to one side or total. A Double Perfect is when a Perfect Play applies to each side pointing to the same winning side or over/under. A Double Perfect and two Perfect Plays go today. Get the picks now

High Precipitation

GamePrecip %
Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers64%
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs75%

Strong Winds

GameWind Speed
Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts16 mph

Critical injuries:

  • Eagles WRs DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are both out 
  • Panthers QB Cam Newton is out
    • Had 0 TDs, 1 INT
    • Kyle Allen gets start 
  • Steelers of course without starting QB Ben Roethliesberger 
    • Mason Rudolph gets start
    • Benji had 0 TDs and an INT
  • Colts star WR T.Y. Hilton and RB Marlon Mack questionable to probable 
  • KC RB LeSean McCoy game-time decision 
  • Saints without QB Drew Brees
    • Teddy Bridgewater will start, but Taysom Hill will get a lot of playing time
  • Lions defense should be as close to full-strength as they’ve been all season 
  • Panthers star TE Greg Olsen is probable 
  • Packers TE Jimmy Graham is probable 

Bovada has a 50% sign-up bonus to beat Bovada live NFL lines

College Football Overnight Sharp Report For Saturday Betting

Joe Duffy is on fire! I have hit all three football picks this week led by Thursday Night NFL Total of the Year on UNDER. FIU OVER last night the latest. Saturday, SEC West Total of the Year among four college football Wise Guys and seven Majors. Yes, sensational angles that win in every sport. Wow, today is a big day for bettors.  Get the picks now

College football morning sharp report. 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Baylor, Old Dominion, LSU, Oregon

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Old Dominion, Baylor, Ohio State

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Ole Miss

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds. Please keep in mind, these include from when sportsbooks opened with the “Games of the Year” during the summer! This helps isolate overreaction: Oregon -1.5 to -10.5, Michigan -5.5 to +3, Central Florida -2.5 to -11, Florida State P to -6.5. 

Weather conditions of note! 

TimeGameWind Speed
12:00 PMMichigan at Wisconsin15 mph
12:00 PMMichigan State at Northwestern15 mph
12:00 PMUL Monroe at Iowa State17 mph
3:30 PMWyoming at Tulsa17 mph
4:00 PMCentral Michigan at Miami Florida20 mph
4:30 PMWest Virginia at Kansas19 mph
6:00 PMWagner at Florida Atlantic22 mph

FCS Free Winning Picks Led by Non-Conference Twosome of the Year

Saturday, SEC West Total of the Year among four college football Wise Guys and seven Majors. I am 17-9 in NFL including our only moneyline, a 160 winner! Sunday, 10 NFL plus Monday Night Football. As long as you have a package that includes Monday you can access all week’s picks at OffshoreInsiders.com    

These are FCS and added rotation games using the same metrics as Joe Duffy’s Picks does for regular rotation winning picks. 

Wise Guy

Hampton-Liberty UNDER 55.5 at Bet Now   

An angle that has to do with a math comparison and today’s total relative to season-to-date goes under an uncanny 185-78-8. 

Maine-Colgate UNDER 45 at Bet Now     

FCS Non-Conference Twosome Total of Year

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 745-442-34. An angle that has to do with a math comparison and today’s total relative to season-to-date goes under an uncanny 185-78-8. 

Fordham-Stoney Brook UNDER 48 at Bet Now   

FCS Non-Conference Twosome Total of Year

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 745-442-34. An angle that has to do with a math comparison and today’s total relative to season-to-date goes under an uncanny 185-78-8. 

Major

Citadel-Charleston Southern UNDER 53 at Bet Now   

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 745-442-34.

Eastern Washington-Idaho UNDER 69 at Bet Now   

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 745-442-34.

Illinois State-Northern Arizona UNDER 54 at Bet Now   

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 745-442-34.

Nicholls State-Stephen F. Austin UNDER 61 at Bet Now   

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 745-442-34.

James Madison-Tennessee Chattanooga UNDER 41.5 at 5 Dimes  

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 745-442-34.

Tennessee Tech-Western Illinois UNDER 57.5 at Bet Now   

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 745-442-34.

NFL Week 3 Picks Free, Including Sunday Night Football

Joe Duffy is off to a 2-0 start this week with all picks. Saturday, SEC West Total of the Year among four college football Wise Guys and seven Majors. I am 17-9 in NFL including our only moneyline, a 160 winner! Sunday, 10 NFL plus Monday Night Football.  Get the picks now

Your Grandmaster Joe Duffy has these free winning picks.

NFL

Steelers at 49ers

  • Pittsburgh is 0-2 and off loss as a favorite, which sets up an early season overreaction angle that is 107-74-7 (Pittsburgh)
  • Undefeated versus winless angle says go with undefeated Niners at 57-38-3 but 5-10 since Oct 13, 2013
  • Mason Rudolph gets first start of NFL career
  • San Francisco DE Nick Bosa still slowed by ankle injury but should play
  • Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo playing very well after missing 13 games last season
  • Steelers big trade got Minkah Fitzpatrick from Fins
    • Expected to start
  • Niners with second largest margin of cover so far, covering by an average of 20 points per game
  • Teams covering by an average of at least 18.5 points per game are a go-against of 70-51-4 for 57.9 percent
  • Pittsburgh second worst at -15.2 points per game
  • Road teams with -12 or worse ats margin are 113-78 (Steelers)
  • San Francisco 1-13-2 home favorites

Pick: Pittsburgh +6.5 at Bovada live NFL lines

Saints at Seahawks

  • Teddy Bridgewater gets start for Saints, though expect a ton of Taysom Hill
  • Road teams off road loss versus an opponent also off road game under specific circumstances that apply today is 86-25
  • Anti-splits angle in which we go with road team with much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is 209-164-6
    • Yes still applies in week 3 because early-season overreaction is huge
  • Saints under 7-1 road
  • Seattle third strongest public consensus in terms of percentage of bets
    • Saints would be contrarian
  • Saints second biggest sharp bet of week

The pick: New Orleans +4 MyBookie NFL live lines, latest odds

Rams at Browns

  • Fading non-elite prime-time underdogs or small favorites is 115-74-13 (Rams)
  • Fading Super Bowl loser first four weeks is 48-25 but 0-2 this year (Browns)
  • Rams Todd Gurley looks like he is not his old self
  • Teams off MNF blowout wins are 46-15 under specific circumstances that apply today (Browns)
  • Rams biggest public consensus by far in percentage of bets and by small margin in money
    • Contrarian bettors would say Browns

The pick: Cleveland +3.5 at NFL live lines, latest odds