Joe Duffy’s playoff notebook. Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and widely accepted as top betting expert in the world. Betonline, home of the opening line has a $20,000 NBA bracket contest!

Blind zig-zag now 555-534-12 all time including 57-74 previous two years

• 2016 was all-time worst 22-42

Nets vs. Sixers

• Joel Embiid is questionable
• Added Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris to Embiid and Simmons
• Nets split series and had highest offensive efficiency against them of any team in league
• Nets playing with “house money”
• Nets play 2^nd most zone defense in NBA, so will give Philly a different look
  • Especially if Embiid healthy
• Sixers starting line-up of Simmons, Redick, Butler, Harris, Embid played on 10 games together in the 28 games after Harris trade
  • Just 161 total minutes
• With Embiid off floor, Nets outscored Sixers by 40 points in just 58 minutes

Pick: Nets in six

Magic vs. Raptors

• Orlando an incredible 22-9 down stretch
• First playoffs since 2012, will they be fat and happy?
• DeMar DeRozan addition by subtraction as Kawhi Leonard is much better
• Kyle Lowrey less reckless on offense with DeRozan gone
• Magic with a combined 33 playoff games (28 by D.J. Augustin)
• Raptors starting five with 417
• Split season series at 2, but Magic cumulative +40 points
• LeBron James out of Raptors way
• Solid forward Jonathan Isaac question for Game 1 for Magic

Pick: Raptors in six

Clippers vs. Warriors

• Boogie Cousins make team worse
  • Carmelo, Dwight Howard
  • Chip on his shoulder and on one-year contract
• Golden State 16-2 SU in first round
• Clippers “house money” as in playoffs after trading Tobias Harris
• Clippers Patrick Beverly plays with an edge and may get under Steph Curry’s skin
• Clippers with decent bench, but starters not capable of competing
• Golden State’s starting 5 was No. 1 on defense, post All-Star break
  • Curry, Cousins, Thompson, Durant, Green

Pick: Golden State in five

Spurs vs. Nuggets

•  The Spurs’ leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan simply misses too many shots
• Denver Nikola Jokic difficult to defend, but Pop is expert and they can make adjustments as series goes on
• Off incredibly disappointing year Gary Harris of Denver has upside
• Denver with big size edge, big in postseason where half-court is more important
  • Millsap, Plumlee, Jokic, but Spurs only have LaMarcus Aldridge
• Denver biggest home/road dichotomy with points per 100 possessions in league
  • 13.1 better at home in thin air
• Spurs third best home defense, but 16^th on road

Series pick: Denver in six

Sunday

Pacers-Celtics

• Boston was preseason favorite in the East, but No. 4 seed
• 1-7 SU road playoffs last year
• Pacers without Oladipo and Celtics without Marcus Smart
  • Jaylen Brown takes over for Smart
• When Aron Baynes took over for Marcus Morris, Boston went 5-1 SU down stretch
• Gordon Hayward averaged 16.9 points per game in final seven games
• Indiana still a solid eighth defensively after losing Oladipo
• Celtics best team in East versus Pacers defense getting 117.6 points per 100 possessions

Series pick: Boston sweep

Pistons vs. Bucks

• Detroit with good frontline of Blake Griffin and Andrew Drummond
  • Griffin less than 100 percent
• Pistons enter cold losing 7-of-11
• Teams with 8.8 or better points per game margin are 65-53 in postseason (Milwaukee)
  • 56.2 percent at home
• Detroit dangerous because the hit 200 more three-point shots than they gave up
• Milwaukee best defense in restricted area, big in postseason
• Bucks won all 4 regular season

Pick: Bucks in four

Thunder vs. Blazers

• Jusuf Nurkic out for Blazers
  • 15.6 points per game, 10.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists (very good for center)
  • Enes Kanter takes over
    • Good offense, weak defense
• Thunder great 1-2 punch for Russel Westbrook and Paul George
  • George shoulder sore
• OKC 4-0 regular season SU
• OKC defends pick and roll very well, second best in league, which Damian Lillard is best

Pick: Oklahoma City in six

Jazz vs. Rockets

• No team more susceptible to look-ahead but also have chip on their shoulder
• Rockets as fourth seed would play Warriors next
• Series split 2-2 regular season
• No. 2 offense in Houston vs. No. 2 defense in Utah
  • Rockets 99 points points per 100 possessions was fewest points Houston scored against any Western Conference team
• How healthy is Derrick Favors for Jazz?
  • Protects rim against Houston guards penetrating
  • If he is out, Jazz will be smaller and quicker, so his injury definitely effects total both ends
    • Without him, total should go up
• With Donovan Mitchell, Jazz have firepower to pull of upset

Pick: Jazz in seven

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