Key Play of the Day is Every Gambler’s Dream

The Key Play of the Day told you that the pros love early season college basketball because soft lines are commonplace. We share the reason the pros give for tonight’s oddsmaker blunder. Here is what the squares among you missed Monday.

Eastern Kentucky @ Mississippi State

Mississippi State (-17)


Key Play of the Day: Eastern Kentucky +17

I.    Private database gives EKU an 85.196 chance of covering

II.   EKU “Princeton style” offense keeps games close. They’ve covered five straight as double-digit underdogs

III. State struggled defending such offenses in non-conference games last season. The Colonels will utilize the 1-3-1 set, make the usual backdoor cuts to the basket and allow their frontcourt to take long jump shots.It’s an early test for the Bulldogs’ frontcourt, especially junior Renardo Sidney. The 6-foot-10 big man is a force inside but has yet to be truly tested outside the paint.

IV.  It will mark the college debut of freshman forward Timmy Knipp after the 2011 Gatorade Player of the year in the state of Kentucky committed to EKU in August. The 6-foot-8 Knipp averaged 31.1 points per game last season to lead the state of Kentucky. He had offers from UTEP, Duquesne, Marshall, Radford, Tennessee Tech and James Madison.

V.   Eastern will get surprising production from two first year players. Two freshmen are expected to round out the starting line-up at Mississippi State – Timmy Knipp and Eric Stutz. Knipp hit a pair of three-pointers in the exhibition game on Nov. 2 while Stutz posted a team-high 14 points.

VI.  E KENTUCKY is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18 points since 1997.

VII.      MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

VIII.     MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

IX.  Bulldogs are 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 home games.

X.   Bulldogs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite.

XI.  Bulldogs are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite.

XII.      Bulldogs are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.

XIII.     Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater.

XIV.     Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.

XV. GreyMatterStats has Eastern covering

XVI.     Teamrankings has 2* on East Carolina

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