It’s the Tampa Bay Rays taking on the Boston Red Sox in Game 3 of the ALCS. The sportsbooks have Jon Lester and Boston as a 180 favorite over Tampa Bay and Matt Garza with a total of 8.5 under -115.

Tampa has lost 5-of-6 with Garza and they are 5-11 on the road with him -7 units. Boston is a mind-boggling 16-2 at home with Lester +13.8 units. In fact, going back to last year, they are 23-4 at home with him and 41-13 the last 54 with him on grass. They have won 6-of-7 with Lester overall heading into this game.

Tampa is hitting just .252 for the year on grass and a horrid .248 on the road. Boston though is hitting just .234 in their last seven games.

The Rays are 33-67 on the road to left-handed starters and 63-136 on the road against teams with a winning record. Boston is 42-12 at home to teams with a losing road record. Tampa has lost seven straight to Lester. The BoSox are a scary 46-11 at home in the series, yet Tampa has won 8-of-11 overall meetings recently.

Some over/under betting trends tell us that Boston has gone under at a 7-0-1 rate after allowing five or more runs last game.

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