Wednesday Vetted Betting Card

The Red Sox and Orioles will close out their three-game series on Wednesday afternoon, with Dice-K gunning for his 17th win.  Here’s your Daily Sports Roundup . . .

Event of the day . . .

Daisuke Matsuzaka (16-2, 2.82 ERA) is coming off his best outing of the season, holding the White Sox scoreless on two hits and two walks over eight innings of work in an August 29 win. The righthander also fanned seven in that contest. Matsuzaka has faced Baltimore twice over the past month and a half, winning both of those games.

The Orioles were expected to counter with Jeremy Guthrie (10-11, 3.57 ERA) in the series finale on Wednesday afternoon. However, Guthrie has been hit hard in each of his last two outings (giving up a combined 12 earned runs on 14 hits over 9 2-3 innings of work), and instead the team will skip his turn in the rotation this time around. Reliever Lance Cormier (2-3, 4.61 ERA) is the top candidate to start in place of Guthrie.

Baltimore has outfielder Adam Jones back in their lineup; he was activated from the disabled list on Monday, and homered in his first at-bat of that contest. Boston outfielder J.D. Drew (herniated disk in back) could return to the lineup at some point this week.

Non sports event of the days…

Surely Sarah Palin’s speech tonight at the RNC will get as much interest as any Veep speech in history.  Will it be as memorable as Warren Zevon appearing on the David Letterman Show?

It will be interesting to see if the political betting odds change much in the next few days based on Palin’s speech and the attacks on her daughter Bristol Palin.

Definition of vetted…

The talking heads are stealing our term. Anyone who has used our approved sportsbooks know that every sportsbook on that site has been thoroughly vetted so you can bet your NFL picks week 1 through the Super Bowl with supreme confidence.

Also vetted are the NFL odds masters on MasterLockLine.com where you get the biggest plays from the top handicappers in their highest rated sports. These picks are ahead of James “Whitey” Bulger on the most wanted list. Check out the live NFL lines which display just fine in the new Google browser.

Non-event of the day . . .

It’s been a long time since Barry Zito was considered a top pitcher, and he’ll be looking to avoid his 17th loss of the season on Wednesday when the Giants play in Colorado. Zito (8-16, 5.62 ERA) was pounded for seven earned runs over just 3 1-3 innings in his last start (against the Reds). The Rockies‘ starter will be Aaron Cook (16-8, 3.88 ERA).

Also on the schedule . . .

Carl Pavano (2-0, 3.27 ERA) will be looking to keep that perfect record intact when he takes the mound for the Yankees in Tampa Bay on Wednesday night. Other games on the American League schedule: the White Sox at Cleveland, Seattle at Texas, the Angels at Detroit, Minnesota at Toronto, and Oakland at Kansas City.

Ryan Dempster (15-5, 2.95 ERA) will get the ball for the Cubs when they host Houston and Randy Wolf (8-11, 4.73 ERA) on Wednesday. Rounding out the National League slate: Atlanta at Florida, the Mets at Milwaukee, St. Louis at Arizona, Philadelphia at Washington, Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, and San Diego at the Dodgers.

Finally, there’s one WNBA game on the Wednesday schedule: Minnesota at Phoenix.

News from the wire . . .

Running back Rudi Johnson will look to get his career back on track in Detroit, as the Lions signed him to a one-year deal . . . Rookie quarterback Joe Flacco will get the start for the Ravens this weekend . . . Browns quarterback Derek Anderson is expected to return from his concussion in time for the team’s Week 1 contest . . . defected Predators forward Alexander Radulov seems unlikely to return to the NHL this season.

Peek at the future . . .

Scott Kazmir (10-6, 3.13 ERA) will take on Darrell Rasner (5-9, 5.08 ERA) in the Rays/Yankees finale on Thursday . . . Vijay Singh, the winner of each of the first two FedExCup playoff events, will be the favorite to take the trophy in this week’s BMW Championship at Bellerive . . . this week’s college football schedule gets underway on Thursday night, with Vanderbilt taking on South Carolina (-10) (college football odds)

Mets-Brewers Vegas Betting Odds

A winning streak will be on the line for the New York Mets on Wednesday when they battle the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park.
Oliver Perez will be the starting pitcher for the Mets on this day. Lefthander Perez is 9-7 this season with a 3.90 ERA.
The Brewers will counter Perez with David Bush. Righthander Bush has a 4.15 ERA to go along with a 9-9 record this season.
NewBodog oddsmakers currently have the Brewers listed as 115-moneyline favorites versus the Mets, while the game’s total has not yet been posted.
Endy Chavez’s sacrifice fly in the top of the 10th inning lifted the Mets past the Brewers 6-5 on Tuesday night.
New York upset Milwaukee as +111 road underdogs as the game played over the 9.5-run total set by sportsbooks.
Carlos Beltran was 2-for-3 with a three-run tater for the Mets, while Joe Smith picked up the win in relief for New York.
Starting pitcher Manny Parra drove in two runs at the plate for Milwaukee, as Solomon Torres took the loss after allowing the sacrifice fly to Chavez.
Current streak:
New York has won 3 straight games.
Milwaukee has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
New York: 78-61 SU
Milwaukee: 80-58 SU
New York most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing Philadelphia are 7-3
After playing Milwaukee are 7-3
After a win are 6-4

Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing San Diego are 4-6
After playing NY Mets are 4-6
After a loss are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
NY Mets are 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Mets are 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
NY Mets are 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
NY Mets are 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
Milwaukee is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Mets
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets
Next up:
NY Mets home to Philadelphia, Friday, September 5
Milwaukee home to San Diego, Thursday, September 4
 

Mariners-Rangers Pointspread Pointers

Divisional bragging rights will be on the line on Wednesday when the Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers meet at Rangers Ballpark.
The Mariners will pin their hopes on the pitching of righthander Felix Hernandez in this game. Hernandez has a 9-8 record and a 3.27 ERA this season.
Starting this game for the Rangers will be Dustin Nippert. The righthander has a 9.65 ERA to go along with a 0-2 record this season.
NewBodog oddsmakers currently have the Rangers listed as 103-moneyline favorites versus the Mariners, while the game’s total has not yet been posted.
Josh Hamilton went 3-for-4 with three runs batted in to lead the Rangers past the Mariners 6-4 on Tuesday night.
Texas cashed as -171 home favorites as the game played under the 12-run total posted by sportsbooks.
Hank Blalock was 2-for-4 with two RBIs for the Rangers, while winning pitcher Brandon McCarthy gave up two runs over six innings for Texas.
Raul Ibanez knocked in two runs for Seattle, as Ryan Feierabend was tagged for five runs over 5 2-3 innings to take the defeat for the Mariners.
Team records:
Seattle: 54-84 SU
Texas: 68-72 SU
Seattle most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing NY Yankees are 1-9
After playing Texas are 2-8
After a loss are 4-6

Texas most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Boston are 4-6
After playing Seattle are 8-2
After a win are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Texas
Texas is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Seattle
Texas is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
Texas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
Seattle home to NY Yankees, Friday, September 5
Texas home to Boston, Friday, September 5
 

Orioles-Red Sox Preview

The Baltimore Orioles will be fighting to snap a losing streak on Wednesday when they take on the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.
The Orioles will trot Lance Cormier out to the mound in this one. Righthander Cormier has a 0-0 record and a 0.00 ERA as a starter this season.
Cormier’s opponent in this one will be Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Red Sox righthander has a 2.82 ERA to go along with a 16-2 record this season.
Odds aren’t yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.
Dustin Pedroia went 3-for-5 with a three-run jack and five runs batted in to lead the Red Sox over the Orioles 14-2 on Tuesday night.
Boston cashed as -290 home favorites as the game played over the 11-run total set by oddsmakers.
David Ortiz was 3-for-3 with four RBIs for the Red Sox, while winning pitcher Jon Lester allowed one run over five innings for Boston.
Kevin Millar and Alex Cintron knocked in runs for Baltimore, as Radhames Liz was roughed up for nine runs over 3 1-3 innings to take the loss for the Orioles.
Current streak:
Baltimore has lost 5 straight games.
Boston has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Baltimore: 63-75 SU
Boston: 81-57 SU
Baltimore most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 2-8
Before playing Oakland are 2-8
After playing Boston are 2-8
After a loss are 2-8

Boston most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 8-2
Before playing Texas are 8-2
After playing Baltimore are 7-3
After a win are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston
Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Boston
Baltimore is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Next up:
Baltimore home to Oakland, Friday, September 5
Boston at Texas, Friday, September 5
 

Braves-Marlins Who Will Cover?

The Atlanta Braves and the Florida Marlins will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at Dolphin Stadium.
Righthander Jorge Campillo will take the mound for the Braves to start this game. Campillo is 7-7 this season with a 4.06 ERA.
Campillo’s opponent in this one will be Chris Volstad. The Marlins righthander has a 3.31 ERA to go along with a 3-3 record this season.
NewBodog oddsmakers currently have the Marlins listed as 130-moneyline favorites versus the Braves, while the game’s total has not yet been posted.
Ruben Gotay’s RBI-double in the top of the ninth inning was the difference, as the Braves outgunned the Marlins 16-14 on Tuesday night.
Atlanta won as +151 road underdogs as the game played over the 9.5-run total listed by sportsbooks.
Kelly Johnson was 4-for-5 with four runs batted in for the Braves, while Jorge Julio picked up the win in relief of starter Charlie Morton for Atlanta.
Alfredo Amezaga went 2-for-6 with five RBIs for Florida, as reliever Matt Lindstrom was tagged with the loss after surrendering the go-ahead run.
Team records:
Atlanta: 60-79 SU
Florida: 70-69 SU
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Washington are 5-5
After playing Florida are 5-5
After a win are 2-8

Florida most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing St. Louis are 4-6
After playing Atlanta are 3-7
After a loss are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
Atlanta is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Florida
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Florida
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Florida is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Florida is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Florida is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Atlanta
Florida is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
Next up:
Atlanta home to Washington, Thursday, September 4
Florida at St. Louis, Friday, September 5
 

Yankees-Rays Pointspread Pointers

The New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays will meet on the field at Tropicana Field on Wednesday in a battle of division rivals.
Righthander Carl Pavano will take the mound for the Yankees to start this game. Pavano is 2-0 this season with a 3.27 ERA.
It’ll be Edwin Jackson toeing the rubber for the Rays in this contest. Righthander Jackson is 11-8 with a 3.81 ERA so far this season.
NewBodog oddsmakers currently have the Rays listed as 125-moneyline favorites versus the Yankees, while the game’s total has not yet been posted.
Xavier Nady hit a two-run homer, as the Yankees dumped the Rays 7-2 on Tuesday night.
New York won as +105 road underdogs as the game played over the 8.5-run total listed by oddsmakers.
Alex Rodriguez went 2-for-3 with a solo shot for the Yankees, while Mike Mussina gave up two runs over six innings to earn the victory for New York.
Cliff Floyd and Shawn Riggans plated runs for Tampa Bay, as Matt Garza allowed four earned runs over five innings to take the loss for the Rays.
Current streak:
New York has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
New York: 74-64 SU
Tampa Bay: 84-52 SU
New York most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Tampa Bay are 7-3
After playing Tampa Bay are 5-5
After a win are 5-5

Tampa Bay most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing NY Yankees are 5-5
After playing NY Yankees are 3-7
After a loss are 8-2

A few trends to consider:
NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
NY Yankees are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Yankees are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Next up:
Tampa Bay home to NY Yankees, Thursday, September 4
 

White Sox-Indians Preview

If familiarity breeds contempt, there should be animosity aplenty on Wednesday when the Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Indians meet at Progressive Field.
Javier Vazquez will be the starting pitcher for the White Sox on this day. Righthander Vazquez is 10-12 this season with a 4.38 ERA.
Meanwhile, it’ll be Jeremy Sowers who starts for the Indians. Lefthander Sowers is 2-7 with a 6.41 ERA so far this season.
NewBodog oddsmakers currently have the White Sox listed as 140-moneyline favorites versus the Indians, while the game’s total has not yet been posted.
Victor Martinez smashed a two-run homer, as the Indians rolled past the White Sox 9-3 on Tuesday night.
Cleveland cashed as +110 home underdogs as the teams played over the 9.5-run total listed by sportsbooks.
Asdrubal Cabrera went 3-for-4 with two runs batted in for the Indians, while Fausto Carmona allowed three runs over 5 2-3 innings to get the win for Cleveland.
Nick Swisher and Juan Uribe drove in runs for Chicago, as losing pitcher John Danks was rocked for four runs over four innings for the White Sox.
Current streak:
Chicago has lost 2 straight games.
Cleveland has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Chicago: 77-61 SU
Cleveland: 67-70 SU
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing LA Angels are 4-6
After playing Cleveland are 6-4
After a loss are 6-4

Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Kansas City are 7-3
After playing Chi White Sox are 3-7
After a win are 9-1

A few trends to consider:
Chi White Sox are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games when playing Cleveland
Chi White Sox are 8-15 SU in their last 23 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Chi White Sox are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games
Cleveland is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
Cleveland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
Cleveland is 15-8 SU in their last 23 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
Cleveland is 3-9 SU in their last 12 games when playing Chi White Sox
Next up:
Chi White Sox home to LA Angels, Friday, September 5
Cleveland at Kansas City, Friday, September 5
 

NFL Spreads Are Not the Only NFL Odds to Beat: Don’t Forget Moneylines

It was somewhere around 25 years ago – an eon in the prospering life of modern sports betting – that Nevada’s licensed bookmakers first began employing money lines. The action was one of necessity as bet takers, in an effort to limit their susceptibility at being caught between two numbers (a situation called being middled or sided) sought a profitable (for them) but reasonably attractive (for bettors) alternative to moving pointspreads.

With money lines, (which are the wagering standard for baseball), players don’t lay or take points; they lay or take a price. For example, if the Colts are a 3-point favorite over the Broncos, on the money line, Indianapolis might be -160 (bet $160 to win $100) while Denver is +140 (bet $100 to win $140). No pointspread is involved.

“The time when a money line is really used in force is on a game such as the Super Bowl where a side or a middle literally could cost you millions of dollars,” explained a noted Las Vegas bookmaker with vast knowledge of the intricacies of money line management who asked not to be identified. “At a really large sportsbook, getting sided on the Super Bowl could cost the house well over $1 million.

“The time that a money line is really valuable is when the line is -3. Rather than moving the spread to -2 ½ or -3 ½, I like using a money line, especially if my jeopardy is going to be around seven figures.”

Of course, a bookmaker’s jeopardy or risk is a relative factor.

“Again, it’s up to the guy running the joint,” pointed out the bet taker. “Obviously, if you’re on -3 and you’re $2 million high, if you go to -3 ½ you know you’re going to get money back. How much do you want to risk? It all comes down to how much belly you have.”

Bookmakers also use money lines when they hang halftime lines, a game within a game where pointspreads based solely and independently on single halftime scores are offered.

“Halves are pretty treacherous,” admitted the bookmaker. “Using a money line is a tactical move because I think that’s the only way you can really book halftimes. If it’s pick with the money line and the game comes tied, all you do is give the money back. But it’s dangerous to go from pick to 1, pick to a ½ or pick to 1 on the other side because, quite obviously, if the game winds up 7-7 at the half, you’re going to lose a lot of money.

“That’s a strategic move because there are a lot smarter people betting the halftime than in a normal situation. When you take decent sized bets – say $10,000 to a number – using the pick money line pointspread for a halftime, I believe, is the best theory.”

Sports betting action usually dictates change but pointspreads don’t always move in tandem with money line shifts, and vice versa.

“It all depends,” said another bookmaker who also felt a bit squeamish discussing internal oddsmaking deliberations and demanded anonymity. “If wiseguys (informed bettors) are laying a side up, yeah, most of the time I will move the pointspread. But if it’s square (unsophisticated) money that moving the number, I’ll just leave it there because I don’t want to kill all the action. Sometimes, if you leave it there, they’ll bet that up, too. But if games are moving, especially in college, a point, a point and a half, two points a crack in an afternoon, you’ve got to move the money line. With the NFL, you can stay a little longer and take a hit.”

If there’s a player edge with money lines it’s probably in taking the odds with small underdogs. Since NFL games are decided by 1 or 2 points only about a combined seven percent of the time, some gamblers feel if you like the underdog you might as well forget the points and take a plus on the money line.

In the end, money lines are just another option sports betting option.

MONEY LINE VERSUS POINTSPREAD

Pointspread

Money Line
Low

Range
High

Pick

-110

-110

 

1

-115
-105

-125
+105

 

1 ½

-120
Even

-135
+115

 

2

-125
+105

-145
+125

 

2 ½

-140
+120

-160
+140

 

3

-150
+130

-170
+150

 

3 ½

-160
+140

-180
+160

 

4

-170
+150

-200
+170

 

4 ½, 5,
and 5 ½

-180
+160

-240
+200

 

6

-200
+170

-260
+220

 

6 ½

-220
+180

-280
+230

 

7

-260
+220

-350
+280

 

7 ½

-300
+250

-400
+300

Today’s Sports Betting

The Yankees will be looking to keep their slim playoff chances alive on Tuesday night when they continue their series in Tampa Bay.  Here’s your Daily Sports Roundup . . .

Event of the day . . .

Mike Mussina has never won 20 games in a single season, but he still has a shot at doing it this year if he can put together a win streak over the month of September.

Mussina (16-7, 3.41 ERA) was denied his 17th victory of the season last time out against the Red Sox despite holding the opposition to two earned runs on five hits over seven innings of work. The Yankees, though, still got the win in that game, and overall they’ve won each of Mussina’s last six trips to the mound (and eight of his past 10).

Countering Mussina for the Rays on Tuesday night will be Matt Garza (11-7, 3.53 ERA), who is coming off a strong performance against the Blue Jays in which he tossed 7 2-3 shutout innings in a win. Tampa Bay has pulled out the victory in four of Garza’s last six outings, and the righthander blanked his opponents in three of those six contests.

Non sports event betting…

The Levi Johnson and Bristol Palin pregnancy, improved government response to the overblown Hurricane Gustav—none of that has affected the political betting odds on the US Presidency. Since NewBodog reposted the line, Barack Obama has remained a steady -200 to win the White House.

Who would think Fox News commentator Liz Trotta would beat Keith Olbermann and Bill Mahr to the punch, being the first to grab headlines for attacking Sarah Palin over her decision to run for Vice President despite having a pregnant daughter?  

We are sorry to see the passing of Don Lafontaine, one of the best voiceover talents in Hollywood. He is survived by singer Nita Whitaker.

Week 1 NFL picks…

The NFL odds, often referred to as the NFL lines or NFL Spreads are up. One of the best ever with NFL picks, Stevie Vincent of OffshoreInsiders.com tells us that NFL schedule is looking pretty and this will be one of the best opening NFL weekends as far as beating the NFL spread.

As, Cy McCormick informs us that the new AP Top 25 in college football means that StatMaven Sports will have a sensational system play this weekend that applies to teams ranked in the AP poll in college football (college football odds). Don’t forget the famed Tailgate Party to beat the pointspreads in college and professional football.   

Non-event of the day . . .

Ian Snell and Aaron Harang were expected to be their team’s aces this season, but neither of them has performed up to expectations. Snell is 5-10 with a 5.77 ERA so far this year, while Harang is an ugly 4-14 with a 5.27 ERA. At most one of those two pitchers will be able to add to their loss total on Tuesday, however, as Harang’s Reds play host to Snell’s Pirates in the opener of a three-game divisional series.

Betting event of the day…

Hello, it’s no-brainer time. It’s not going to get bigger than this. America‘s No. 1 sports handicapping service remains GodsTips. Tonight is the NL Dandy Dog Parlay of the Year. Dandy dogs are moneyline dogs of 140 or more (includes runline getting back 140 or more). Yes, two large dogs will win tonight in MLB. Do you really want to be on the outside looking in? Click now to purchase

Also on the schedule . . .

The key games between playoff contenders in the National League on Tuesday are the Mets at Milwaukee and St. Louis at Arizona. Other NL games on the day’s schedule: Atlanta at Florida, Philadelphia at Washington, Houston at the Cubs, San Francisco at Colorado, and San Diego at the Dodgers.

Over in the American League the Red Sox will be keeping their eyes on the Yankees/Rays results as they play host to the Orioles on Tuesday. Rounding out the AL slate: the White Sox at Cleveland, the Angels at Detroit, Minnesota at Toronto, Seattle at Texas, and Oakland at Kansas City.

Finally, there are three WNBA games on Tuesday as that league gets closer to the end of its regular season. At 7:00pm ET Seattle will be at Atlanta while Washington hosts Indiana. An hour later, New York will tip off their road game against Houston.

News from the wire . . .

Major League Baseball teams were able to expand their rosters on Monday, with many minor leaguers getting the call to the show . . . Dodgers second baseman Jeff Kent was placed on the disabled list with a knee injury; no timetable has been set for his return . . . Bengals wide receiver Chad Johnson says his shoulder is at 100 percent . . . Bills quarterback Trent Edwards has recovered from his quad injury and will start Week 1.

Peek at the future . . .

It’ll be Carl Pavano (2-0, 3.27 ERA) taking on Edwin Jackson (11-8, 3.81) in the Yankees/Rays matchup on Wednesday . . . the Patriots are the NFL’s biggest Week 1 favorites, as they’ve been given a line of -16.5 to beat the Chiefs at home on Sunday afternoon . . . Clint Bowyer has a slim lead on David Ragan in the Sprint Cup standings heading into the final pre-Chase race of the season on Saturday at Richmond.

Moneylines in Betting the NFL Odds




It was somewhere around 25 years ago – an eon in the
prospering life of modern sports betting – that Nevada’s licensed bookmakers
first began employing money lines. The action was one of necessity as bet
takers, in an effort to limit their susceptibility at being caught between two
numbers (a situation called being middled or sided) sought a profitable (for
them) but reasonably attractive (for bettors) alternative to moving
pointspreads.

With money lines, (which are the wagering standard for baseball), players don’t
lay or take points; they lay or take a price. For example, if the Colts are a
3-point favorite over the Broncos, on the money line, Indianapolis
might be -160 (bet $160 to win $100) while Denver
is +140 (bet $100 to win $140). No pointspread is involved.

”The time when a money line is really used in force is on a game such as the
Super Bowl where a side or a middle literally could cost you millions of
dollars,” explained a noted Las Vegas
bookmaker with vast knowledge of the intricacies of money line management who
asked not to be identified. “At a really large sportsbook, getting sided on the
Super Bowl could cost the house well over $1 million.

”The time that a money line is really valuable is when the line is -3. Rather
than moving the spread to -2 ½ or -3 ½, I like using a money line, especially
if my jeopardy is going to be around seven figures.”

Of course, a bookmaker’s jeopardy or risk is a relative factor.

”Again, it’s up to the guy running the joint,” pointed out the bet taker. “Obviously,
if you’re on -3 and you’re $2 million high, if you go to -3 ½ you know you’re
going to get money back. How much do you want to risk? It all comes down to how
much belly you have.”

Bookmakers also use money lines when they hang halftime lines, a game within a
game where pointspreads based solely and independently on single halftime
scores are offered.

”Halves are pretty treacherous,” admitted the bookmaker. “Using a money line is
a tactical move because I think that’s the only way you can really book
halftimes. If it’s pick with the money line and the game comes tied, all you do
is give the money back. But it’s dangerous to go from pick to 1, pick to a ½ or
pick to 1 on the other side because, quite obviously, if the game winds up 7-7
at the half, you’re going to lose a lot of money.

”That’s a strategic move because there are a lot smarter people betting the
halftime than in a normal situation. When you take decent sized bets – say
$10,000 to a number – using the pick money line pointspread for a halftime, I
believe, is the best theory.”

Sports betting action usually dictates change but pointspreads don’t always
move in tandem with money line shifts, and vice versa.

”It all depends,” said another bookmaker who also felt a bit squeamish
discussing internal oddsmaking deliberations and demanded anonymity. “If
wiseguys (informed bettors) are laying a side up, yeah, most of the time I will
move the pointspread. But if it’s square (unsophisticated) money that moving
the number, I’ll just leave it there because I don’t want to kill all the
action. Sometimes, if you leave it there, they’ll bet that up, too. But if
games are moving, especially in college, a point, a point and a half, two
points a crack in an afternoon, you’ve got to move the money line. With the
NFL, you can stay a little longer and take a hit.”

If there’s a player edge with money lines it’s probably in taking the odds with
small underdogs. Since NFL games are decided by 1 or 2 points only about a
combined seven percent of the time, some gamblers feel if you like the underdog
you might as well forget the points and take a plus on the money line.

In the end, money lines are just another option sports betting option.

MONEY LINE VERSUS POINTSPREAD

Pointspread

Money Line
Low

Range
High

Pick

-110

-110

 

1

-115
-105

-125
+105

 

1 ½

-120
Even

-135
+115

 

2

-125
+105

-145
+125

 

2 ½

-140
+120

-160
+140

 

3

-150
+130

-170
+150

 

3 ½

-160
+140

-180
+160

 

4

-170
+150

-200
+170

 

4 ½, 5,
and 5 ½

-180
+160

-240
+200

 

6

-200
+170

-260
+220

 

6 ½

-220
+180

-280
+230

 

7

-260
+220

-350
+280

 

7 ½

-300
+250

-400
+300

 

This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com.