Category Archives: Uncategorized

How Professional Gamblers Use the "Bubble Team" Angle In Handicapping

February 22, 2009 JoeDuffy.net Administrator Leave a comment

As we approach the final weeks of the college basketball regular season, which includes the major conference tournaments, it’s time to remind you of one of the great pitfalls gamblers make. That is to bet on the team that needs a win more.

Combine this with the public’s infatuation with betting on the better team, some of the best investment opportunities are forthcoming in the early days of March Madness betting simply by fading bubble teams.

Why are they great go-against teams for the sharp player? The previously stated motive is one of them. The linesmakers know that gamblers accept as true that the bubble teams will be more motivated. Thus, bettors are ready and willing to lay extra points.

But the fact is, if a team is on “the bubble” they haven’t been victorious often enough in such “must win” games. The squads that excel in pressure games have their NCAA at-large bid locked up by this time of the year.

The most opportune situation is when a bubble team is matched up against a squad in a pure spoiler role. Let’s clarify the relatively objective definitions. Not that we really need it, but the cheat-sheet we utilize for which teams qualify as “bubble” would be Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology on ESPN.com.

Lunardi essentially has 12 bubble teams: last four in, last four out and next four out. From a handicapping standpoint, the list gets smaller as the year goes on.

Currently the squads that our angle would apply to would be Penn State, UNLV, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Providence, Cincinnati, Miami (Fla.), USC, UAB, Temple, and Kansas State.

A team in a “pure spoiler role” is one that has no chance at an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Again, Bracketology is our favorite cheat sheet if there is any doubt, though we of course follow college basketball to the point where we know who’s certainly in, who is out, and who is on “the bubble”.

One of our Golden Rules is to bet on inconsistent teams to continue to be inconsistent, while the public seems to believe unpredictable teams will somehow improve in stress situations.

When Team Bubble is going up against inferior “spoiler” teams, they are going to be overpriced because of public perception. We do caution that while betting against bubble teams is certainly our strong bias, as always the angle is merely part of our preponderance of data scrutinized before finalizing a bet.

In so far as over/under plays, we also lean towards betting the under in such games. In spoiler versus bubble team circumstances, there is plenty of motivation for both squads. Intensity shows up positively on the defensive end, but the angst of a must-win game shows up negatively with sloppy play on the offensive end.

The author Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. All professional handicappers are proud to show off the amount of research that goes into a pick. If a handicapper gives you no rationale, rest assured you just paid for a coin flip. Get accurate analysis for every pick from GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com

Uncategorized

NBA, College Basketball and Academy Awards Highlight Sunday Betting

February 22, 2009 JoeDuffy.net Administrator Leave a comment

Today in the Daily Sports Roundup: Matt Kenseth guns for another Sprint Cup win, the Celtics take on the Suns, and Duke gets set to clash with Wake Forest.

Tipping off on the hardwood . . .

The Celtics will be trying to bounce back from a Thursday night loss to Utah when they go to Phoenix to take on the Suns on Sunday afternoon. Boston managed to score only 85 points in their 90-85 loss to the Jazz on Thursday, thanks in large part to Kevin Garnett leaving the game with a knee injury. The Celtics and Suns last played on January 19, with Boston rolling to a 104-87 win. Suns forward Amare Stoudemire won’t be on the floor on Sunday; he had surgery to repair a detached retina on Friday and will miss the next eight weeks.

A busy Sunday around the NBA has eight other games on the schedule, including Detroit at Cleveland to cap the day at 8:00pm ET. As well, it’ll be Chicago at Indiana, New York at Toronto, Charlotte at Houston, Denver at Milwaukee, Miami at Orlando, the Clippers at Portland, and the Lakers at Minnesota. Kobe Bryant and company topped the T-Wolves 132-119 last month.

The march toward Madness . . .

There are two ranked matchups on the college hoops schedule for Sunday, with No. 12 Villanova at No. 24 Syracuse, and No. 8 Wake Forest at No. 9 Duke. The Blue Devils snapped a two-game losing streak last time out against St. John’s, getting 19 points from Gerald Henderson in their 76-69 road victory. The Demon Deacons topped the Blue Devils 70-68 when the teams clashed back in January.

No. 6 Michigan State will host Wisconsin on Sunday afternoon, while No. 13 Clemson is at Georgia Tech, No. 14 Arizona State gets a visit from rival Arizona, George Washington is at No. 16 Xavier, and No. 18 Illinois heads to the Value City Arena to play Ohio State. The Illini fell 38-33 to Penn State on Wednesday. ScoresOddsPicks.com has in-depth betting previews and databases on each of the games.

As far as winning sports service picks, the MasterLockLine developed data mining software that finds out what happens when two or more top sports services agree in the same side. The top in the 21^st century is a handicapper out of Philadelphia who rates his plays 5, 7.5 and 10 stars. The top all-time handicapper in basketball is Bill Tanner. They agree on two plays today and you get them both Villanova/Syracuse, George Washington/Xavier. Click now to purchase sports betting picks from the top sports services or you can get more information and a free sports pick

Sports headlines…

Alabama tackle Andre Smith has left the NFL combined…the top receiver in the draft Michael Crabtree of Texas Tech will miss 6-10 weeks because of a foot injury…Lindsey Vonn became the most successful American skier ever in the women’s World Cup winning her 19^th race…Maryland beat North Carolina in three overtimes.

Taking a trip around the rink . . .

The Penguins play their second consecutive afternoon contest on Sunday when they travel to Washington to take on the Capitals. Those two teams last met on January 14, when Washington came away with a 6-3 road victory. Alexander Ovechkin scored twice for the Caps in that win, while Jose Theodore stopped 26 of 29 Pittsburgh shots. Marc-Andre Fleury had 36 stops in the loss for the Pens.

There are four other games on the NHL’s slate for Sunday, including Colorado at Carolina at 3:00pm ET. Boston will then be in Tampa Bay to play the Lightning, with Chicago hosting Minnesota, and the Rangers getting a visit from Toronto.

2009 Academy Awards

Hollywood handicappers have great opportunity for profits if the Oscar Awards betting lines (see Hollywood and entertainment betting odds) prove incorrect. Mickey Rourke, Danny Boyle, Heath Ledger, Kate Winslet, and Slumdog Millionaire are all overwhelming favorites in the major categories. But an upset will mean enormous winnings for the movie speculator at the sportsbooks.

Meanwhile Mike Myers The Love Guru dominated the Golden Raspberries. Paris Hilton was also a big “winner”.

Rounding out the Roundup . . .

The Sprint Cup Series will be in Fontana on Sunday for the Auto Club 500 at Auto Club Speedway. Carl Edwards is the defending Auto Club 500 champion, and Jimmie Johnson is the 5/1 Vegas favorite to get the victory on Sunday, but Matt Kenseth is the driver on a roll – he won the rain-shortened Daytona 500 last weekend. Kenseth is pegged at 8/1 odds to visit victory lane at the Fontana track.

Kyle Busch and Edwards are both sitting at 6/1 odds on the Vegas list for Sunday, with Jeff Gordon at 7/1, Dale Earnhardt Jr. at 10/1, and both Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart at 12/1. Stewart was one of the few big names to have a respectable finish at Daytona last week; he ended up in eighth place in the race.

Uncategorized

Arizona-Arizona State Lines Preview

February 22, 2009 JoeDuffy.net Administrator Leave a comment

The Arizona Wildcats and the Arizona State Sun Devils will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at Wells Fargo Arena.

Odds aren’t yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.

Arizona built up an 18 point lead at the half, and cruised to an 84-72 victory over UCLA on Saturday. Arizona won the game as a 5-point underdog at home, and the game’s 156 points sailed OVER the posted total of 141.5.

Jordan Hill netted a double-double with 22 points and 14 rebounds, while Nic Wise added a game-high 26 points.

Arizona State defeated USC 65-53 as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (125).

Derek Glasser scored 18 points for Arizona State and James Harden added 13 points in the win.

Current streak:
Arizona has won 7 straight games.
Arizona State has won 4 straight games.

Team records:
Arizona: 18-8 SU, 15-11 ATS
Arizona State: 20-5 SU, 14-7 ATS

Arizona most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 8-2
Before playing Washington State are 7-3
After playing UCLA are 8-2
After a win are 8-2

Arizona State most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 6-4
Before playing Washington are 3-7
After playing USC are 5-5
After a win are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona’s last 5 games when playing Arizona State
Arizona is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona’s last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona State’s last 5 games when playing Arizona
Arizona State is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
Arizona State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Next up:
Arizona at Washington State, Thursday, February 26
Arizona State at Washington, Thursday, February 26

Uncategorized

Wake Forest-Duke Lines Preview

February 22, 2009 JoeDuffy.net Administrator Leave a comment

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Duke Blue Devils will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Odds aren’t yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.

James Johnson went for 24 points and 11 rebounds, as Wake Forest dumped Georgia Tech 87-69 on Wednesday night.

Wake Forest covered as 14-point home favorites as the teams played over the 148-point total set by sportsbooks.

Gerald Henderson went for 19 points and five rebounds in leading Duke to a 76-69 victory over St. John’s on Thursday. Duke failed to cover the 14-point spread, but the combined score made it OVER the posted total of 136.

Jon Scheyer collected 18 points for Duke, and Kyle Singler chipped in with 15 in the win.

Current streak:
Wake Forest has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Wake Forest: 20-4 SU, 12-8 ATS
Duke: 21-5 SU, 11-13-1 ATS

Wake Forest most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 9-1
Before playing North Carolina State are 6-4
After playing Georgia Tech are 3-7
After a win are 7-3

Duke most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 8-2
Before playing Maryland are 9-1
After playing St. John’s are 8-2
After a win are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wake Forest’s last 6 games
Wake Forest is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games
Wake Forest is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
Wake Forest is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Duke is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Wake Forest
Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Wake Forest
Duke is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Duke’s last 5 games

Next up:
Wake Forest home to North Carolina State, Thursday, February 26
Duke at Maryland, Wednesday, February 25

Uncategorized

Wisconsin-Michigan State Odds Preview

February 22, 2009 JoeDuffy.net Administrator Leave a comment

The fans at Breslin Center will be treated to a game between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Michigan State Spartans when they take their seats on Sunday.

Odds aren’t yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.

Trevon Hughes dumped a game-high 21 points in leading Wisconsin to a convincing 68-51 victory over Indiana on Thursday. Wisconsin covered the 9.5-point spread, while the game’s 119 points went UNDER the posted total of 123.

Joe Krabbenhoft chipped in with 18 points in the win.

Kalin Lucas led Michigan State with 14 points in its 72-54 loss to Purdue on Tuesday night.

Purdue cashed as 3.5-point home favorites as the game played under the 129.5-point total set by oddsmakers.

Current streak:
Wisconsin has won 5 straight games.

Team records:
Wisconsin: 17-9 SU, 11-12-1 ATS
Michigan State: 20-5 SU, 12-10 ATS

Wisconsin most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 9-1
Before playing Michigan are 6-4
After playing Indiana are 8-2
After a win are 8-2

Michigan State most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 7-3
Before playing Iowa are 8-2
After playing Purdue are 6-4
After a loss are 9-1

A few trends to consider:
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wisconsin’s last 5 games
Wisconsin is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Michigan State
Michigan State is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Wisconsin
Michigan State is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
Michigan State is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan State’s last 5 games

Next up:
Wisconsin home to Michigan, Sunday, March 1
Michigan State home to Iowa, Wednesday, February 25

Uncategorized

Villanova-Syracuse Odds Preview

February 22, 2009 JoeDuffy.net Administrator Leave a comment

The Villanova Wildcats and the Syracuse Orange will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at Carrier Dome.

Odds aren’t yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.

Villanova jumped out to a six point lead en route to an 82-72 victory over Rutgers on Thursday. Villanova could not cover the 17-point spread, but the game’s 154 points sailed OVER the posted total of 137.5.

Scottie Reynolds led Villanova with 21 points and six assists, while Corey Stokes chipped in with 17 points.

Syracuse snapped a two-game losing skid by defeating Georgetown 98-94 in OT last time out. Syracuse failed to cover the 4-point spread, but the 192 points sailed OVER the posted total of 144.5.

Jonny Flynn had 25 points with four rebounds and 11 assists, while Arinze Onuaku added 15 points and hauled down 14 rebounds for a double-double.

Team records:
Villanova: 21-5 SU, 13-9 ATS
Syracuse: 19-7 SU, 9-13 ATS

Villanova most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 8-2
Before playing DePaul are 3-2
After playing Rutgers are 4-6
After a win are 6-4

Syracuse most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 8-2
Before playing St. John’s are 7-3
After playing Georgetown are 6-4
After a win are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Villanova’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Villanova’s last 5 games
Villanova is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Villanova is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Syracuse is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Syracuse is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
Syracuse is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Syracuse’s last 6 games at home

Next up:
Villanova at DePaul, Wednesday, February 25
Syracuse at St. John’s, Tuesday, February 24

Uncategorized

Illinois-Ohio State Odds Preview

February 22, 2009 JoeDuffy.net Administrator Leave a comment

The Illinois Fighting Illini and the Ohio State Buckeyes will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at Value City Arena.

Odds aren’t yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.

Trent Meacham and Chester Frazier were the high scorers for Illinois with seven points apiece in its 38-33 loss to Penn State on Wednesday night.

Penn State cashed as 9-point road underdogs as the game played under the 120.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.

Ohio State blew a nine point lead and fell 72-69 to Northwestern last time out, as a slight 1.5-point underdog on the road. That game’s 141 points sailed OVER the posted total of 125.

Jon Diebler shot an impressive 9-for-11 from the field with a game-high 28 points in a losing effort.

Current streak:
Ohio State has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Illinois: 21-6 SU, 13-10-1 ATS
Ohio State: 17-7 SU, 12-8 ATS

Illinois most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 7-3
Before playing Minnesota are 7-3
After playing Penn State are 5-5
After a loss are 8-2

Ohio State most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 9-1
Before playing Penn State are 7-3
After playing Northwestern are 7-3
After a loss are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Illinois’s last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Illinois’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Illinois’s last 6 games when playing Ohio State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Illinois’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Ohio State
Ohio State is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games at home
Ohio State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Illinois
Ohio State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Illinois
Ohio State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Next up:
Illinois home to Minnesota, Thursday, February 26
Ohio State home to Penn State, Tuesday, February 24

Uncategorized

The Biggest Bet All Year in Sports Betting Goes Saturday

February 21, 2009 JoeDuffy.net Administrator Leave a comment

It is without question a watershed day for sports gamblers. There are those who have spent their entire gambling lives subsidizing the sportsbooks for professional bettors who will begin the rest of their gambling lives.

“About once every 15 months we have a sale this big and it does convert once degenerate gamblers into professional sports betting investors,” says Stevie Vincent, GM of OffshoreInsiders.com the top sports handicapping site in the world.

He is referring to the huge Bet It Trinity sale. The Bet It Trinity is the top services ever, GodsTips, Stevie Vincent and the best of the rest on the MasterLockLine.

Vincent is alluding to the extremely rare mega sale: the monthly Bet It Trinity is extended to 45 days to guarantee that it takes pro gamblers (and soon to be) through the NCAA basketball championship game. Click now to purchase to get two weeks for free!

The biggest story for today is that the No. 1 service ever in terms of units won has the College Basketball Game of the Year on Oklahoma-Texas.

Since their scorephone Cadillac Club days, GodsTips is 15-5 with the College Basketball Game of the Year. What has the winning sports service of all-time done for you lately? Thanks for asking. A mere 23-11 with college basketball Wise Guy plays.

The 2008-09 College Basketball Game of the Year is going Saturday. STEAM AS OF 9:01 EST. We currently have 15 winners, eight are Wise Guys Click now to purchase

While GodsTips is No. 1 based on units won, when it comes to winning percentage Stevie Vincent the revolutionary handicapper.

The founder of forensic sports handicapping sweeps with Orlando Magic and Columbia each as Level 5 plays. Among his seven winners he tells you, which team is 12-1 off a double digit loss. Another is 0-11 off a double digit win to their conference, while one is a horrible 1-13 to teams that allow less than 42 percent from the field. Click now to purchase Stevie Vincent’s picks.

Because the MasterLockLine monitors each and every one of the nation’s top sports service, handicappers, tip sheets and syndicates, you will get every Game of the Year play worth betting. Every last one in the industry is yours. That’s why you get more legitimate service Games of the Year on the MasterLockLine than anyone else.

Now to the power of 620 sports services behind every selection. No. 1 service the last two years combined on a 6-0 run with their Key Play of the Day. Key POD in the NBA

Top site out of Las Vegas is releasing for $99 the top play from each of their top five handicappers. Get all five here

No. 4 NCAAB service this year on units won has their Upset Shocker of the Year in college basketball

The top in the 21^st century is a handicapper out of Philadelphia who rates his plays 5, 7.5 and 10 stars While Bill Tanner is the all-time top basketball handicapper in units won, the Quaker City veteran is tops since 2000. His units won, winning percentage and ROI have been on a steady climb. Five 10* in college hoops.

Click now to purchase sports betting picks from the top sports services or you can get more information and a free sports pick

Uncategorized

North Carolina-Maryland Odds Preview

February 21, 2009 JoeDuffy.net Administrator Leave a comment

The fans at Comcast Center will be treated to a game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Maryland Terrapins when they take their seats on Saturday.

Odds aren’t yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.

Tyler Hansbrough had 27 points and seven rebounds to lead North Carolina past North Carolina State 89-80 on Wednesday night.

North Carolina couldn’t cover as 20-point home favorites as the game played over the 162.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.

Landon Milbourne scored 13 points for Maryland in its 93-64 loss to Clemson on Tuesday night.

Clemson cashed as 11-point home favorites as the game played over the 143.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.

Current streak:
North Carolina has won 10 straight games.

Team records:
North Carolina: 24-2 SU, 11-14 ATS
Maryland: 16-9 SU, 10-7-2 ATS

North Carolina most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 7-3
Before playing Georgia Tech are 7-3
After playing North Carolina State are 9-1
After a win are 9-1

Maryland most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 5-5
Before playing Duke are 7-3
After playing Clemson are 4-6
After a loss are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of North Carolina’s last 8 games
North Carolina is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Maryland
Maryland is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Maryland’s last 5 games
Maryland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Maryland’s last 11 games when playing North Carolina

Next up:
North Carolina home to Georgia Tech, Saturday, February 28
Maryland home to Duke, Wednesday, February 25

Uncategorized

San Diego State-New Mexico Lines Preview

February 21, 2009 JoeDuffy.net Administrator Leave a comment

The San Diego State Aztecs and the New Mexico Lobos will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at The Pit.

Odds aren’t yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.

San Diego State had no trouble with Wyoming on Saturday night, cruising to the win by a final score of 71-60.

The Aztecs, however, failed to cover the big 16.5-point spread in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the night’s posted total (142.5).

Tony Danridge scored 17 points for New Mexico in its 73-62 loss to Brigham Young on Tuesday night.

BYU covered as 7-point home favorites as the game played under the 145-point total listed by sportsbooks.

Team records:
San Diego State: 18-6 SU, 13-6-2 ATS
New Mexico: 16-10 SU, 12-11-1 ATS

San Diego State most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 7-3
Before playing BYU are 8-2
After playing Wyoming are 6-4
After a win are 7-3

New Mexico most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 6-4
Before playing TCU are 5-5
After playing BYU are 6-4
After a loss are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego State’s last 5 games when playing on the road against New Mexico
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego State’s last 8 games when playing New Mexico
San Diego State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Mexico
San Diego State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
New Mexico is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Mexico’s last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego State
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Mexico’s last 8 games when playing San Diego State
New Mexico is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Next up:
San Diego State home to BYU, Tuesday, February 24
New Mexico home to TCU, Tuesday, February 24

Sports betting blog with sports handicapping picks from the best sports handicappers, pregame betting information, sports handicapping articles, links to live odds, free picks, sportsbook information and more. All pro gamblers go to this betting blog before placing a bet.