Your free pick winner for Monday is on the under 56 in the Bowl game between Georgia Tech and Air Force.

I am not going to write War and Peace here because there are a few simple factors that I am buying into here and that is enough for me to believe there will be less points than the oddsmaker seems to believe.

For one, both teams run this triple option attack and therefore both defenses play against it on a daily basis in practice and also have had a few extra weeks to prepare for it in this game which can be nothing but advantageous. This is not a regular week where an opponent gets its three or four days to prepare for a much different offense. These squads have had ample amount of time to figure out what they pretty much already know. Certainly executing is another step in defending today’s foe but both defenses will be as prepared as any team ever could be against the option.

I also am all about the under as throwing the ball is not the norm for either squad and therefore we will see a lot of running and consequentially a lot of the clock ticking down. In the college game the clock obviously will stop when there’s a first down but we are going to see a lot of runs leading to a lot of time running down. With both teams understanding the opposing offense I just do not see big plays being the norm here, I really don’t. The defenses should be fairly disciplined and stay with their assignments until the end of plays limiting those 50 yard gallops.

It’s unusual to see a game like this and I really believe it is keeping the oddsmakers a bit off balance. Look for the defenses to be a step in front and for this thing to not get into the 50’s in the end.

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It’s GA Tech vs. Air Force in the Independence Bowl and here is the official sports betting picks preview. Air Force is laying three-points with a total of 56.

The Yellow Jackets come into this game at 6-6 straight up and 5-6 against the spread. Air Force is 8-4 outright, but just 4-7 according to the sportsbooks.

The Ramblin’ Wreck average 5.6 yards per rush teams that normally allow 4.6, but get just 6.8 passing yards per attempt to 7.0 and accumulating 5.9 yards per play defenses that allow an average of 5.5.

Tech has been benevolent on defense allowing 4.6 yards per rush to teams normally getting just 4.1, 7.3 yards per pass to 6.8 and 5.8 yards per play to 5.4.

Air Force generates a sensational 5.5 yards per rush versus squads usually permitting 4.7, a fantastic 9.9 passing yards per attempt to 7.5 and 6.2 yards per play to 5.8.

The Falcons are generous against the run, but stingy against the pass. They allow 4.8 yards per carry teams that usually get just 4.1 but a miserly 6.1 passing yards per attempt to 7.2 for 5.3 yards per play to 5.4.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): GA Tech is 1-6 off spread win.

The Falcons are 2-7 as a favorite of 0.5-3.0, 2-7 overall, 1-7 after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, and 0-5 off straight up win.

Over/under trends: Tech has gone under 9-2 as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 and under 36-16 overall as a pup. Air Force has gone under five straight laying three or less.

Top expert pick on this game: It’s from the Power of 620 sports services behind every selection, the MasterLockLine. Tough to get much bigger than this. Sports service out of Midwest is the No. 1 all-time CFB service in units won. Their highest rated plays are Executive Plays. Bowl Executive Play of the Year on Georgia Tech/Air Force. Get the premium pick now or for more information and a free pick

NFL Weather is wreaking havoc. As of 11:17 EST, the Eagles-Vikings game was still one, but the NFL offices have admitted that is the one game in jeopardy. As it turns out, the snow was supposed to start at 7 AM in Philadelphia and still has not commenced four-plus hours later.

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New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-1) – Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET

The Bears (10-4, 7-6-1 ATS) have clinched the NFC North, so they’re gunning for the second-seed in the NFC. They’re on a pretty good roll after crushing Minnesota 40-14 last week, winning their sixth game in seven tries. The offense achieved nice balance against the Vikings; Jay Cutler completed 14 of his 24 passes for three touchdowns and a pick while Matt Forte carried 17 times for 92 yards. The defense has been excellent, particularly against the run; Chicago is surrendering just 89 yards per game on the ground.

New York (10-4, 8-6 ATS) took care of business against Pittsburgh, winning 22-17 to end a disastrous two-game losing streak. Excluding the meltdown against New England a few weeks ago, the defense is playing pretty well, holding three of its last four opponents to 17, 10 and 10 points. Unfortunately, the offense looks rather sluggish. The ground game is slowing (just 106 yards on 27 carries against Pittsburgh) while Mark Sanchez has turned into a turnover machine. Last week was the first time in eight games he didn’t throw a pick.

At the end of the day, there’s more on the line for the Jets. Chicago is just coming off clinching the division title, whereas New York is playing for its live. New York has the defense to create a few turnovers and limit Chicago’s attack.

Top expert pick on this game: Take the Jets.

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NFL weather is going to be a major factor in Philadelphia, Buffalo and Cleveland for sure as New England and both New York teams are on the road. Winds are 13 mph in Buffalo with the chance of snow at 50 percent. The Jets at Bears has 90 percent chance of snow. Baltimore and Cleveland 17 mph wins with 64 percent chance of snow. The Colts-Raiders has 54 percent chance of rain. Chargers-Bengals will have 13 mph winds and a 39 percent chance of snow.

The biggest game time weather is in Philadelphia in the Vikings-Eagles. There is a 100 percent chance of snow and it will be significant. Winds are at 20 mph.

Matt Rivers Week 16 NFL picks for Sunday is on the NY Giants +3 to Green Bay.

Nobody loves Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense more than I do as the Pack are as dangerous as they come. Meanwhile the Giants blew that game in horrendous fashion last week at home against Philadelphia. So why do I like the boys from New York? Because Tom Coughlin is a tough and gritty coach who should have his guys ready to respond in a big-time way.

There is no doubt that the G-Men completely destroyed themselves last week in the loss to the Eagles and put themselves in pretty much a must win spot today if they want to make the playoffs. Some teams would shrivel up and just quit. I really do not see this blue collar hard hitting New York team doing that though, I just don’t.

The Giants have a front four as good as anybody and have already put something like five quarterbacks out of commission. Do you not think they are licking their chops rushing a guy that just suffered his second concussion of the season? Do you not think that Rodgers may release the ball a tad quicker than normal knowing what is barreling down at him? Rodgers may make a few big plays with Greg Jennings but let’s not forget how the Pack have still struggled running the ball and losing Jermichael Finley earlier in the season will make things a lot more difficult today against the men in blue.

Eli Manning may not be as great as his brother but the guy is really good and a Super Bowl winning MVP. He has a quality running game and a receiver in Hakeem Nicks who is blowing up in a good way along with a guy in Mario Manningham that was awesome last week. Coughlin’s crew is a well rounded team that may not have the explosive offense of the Pack but in a cold weather game at Lambeau and with Rodgers coming back from the noggin injury I will take my chances on these visitors as this barking dog is backed into a corner.

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We contrast the key success indicators used by pro bettors against both the college football schedule and in successful wagering on the NFL for the Lions vs. Dolphins.

The superior team in terms of rushing yards per attempt on offense is Detroit by .3.

Also on offense, when it comes to yards per reception the figures give the eminence to Miami by .7.

Vegas sharps exploit yards per point. Data says the more adroit team in that classification is Detroit by a large 3.2.

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Defensively on yards per rush, the disparity favors Miami by a whooping 1.1, no small margin.

The better team at stopping the air attack according to passing yards per completion is Detroit, but by just .1.

Yards per point dictates the shrewder defense belongs to Miami forcing 1.3.

In net turnovers, the preeminence is the Lions by nine.

Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

This week’s football schedule includes a contest between the Colts vs. Raiders. Indianapolis is -3 on the road with a total of 47.5.

OffshoreInsiders.com takes a look at the football betting match-up using key numbers employed by professional gamblers.

In comparing yards per rush on offense, the better numbers belong to Oakland by .7.

As far as passing yards per completion on the offensive side of the ball, the upper hand is for Oakland by 1.8.

According to yards per point, the more efficient offense is Indianapolis by .2.

Defensively the more stingy team based on yards per rush is the Oakland Raiders by .2.

The superior defense in terms of passing yards per completion is Indianapolis by a signficant 2.7.

The yards per point statistic used by the best sports handicappers says the superior defense is

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Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): The Colts are 8-3 after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, 34-15 following a S.U. win. Oakland is 5-0 after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, 21-44 after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game, 4-20 as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Over/under trends: Indianapolis over 6-1 as road favorites. Oakland over 6-1 as home underdogs, but under 45-22 to teams with a winning record.

One of the best Vegas scores and odds contests this week in football is the clash between Cowboys vs. Cardinals for Christmas night.

The current Vegas point spread is Dallas -7 to 7.5 with varying juice with a total of 45 in most shops, but 45.5 in some.

The best sports picks experts use different key handicapping numbers than the square player. Here is a preview of that game from a handicapping standpoint.

In comparing yards per rush on offense, the superiority from a statistical standpoint goes to the Arizona Cardinals by .4.

Passing yards per completion is another gauge utilized by bettors. The advantage is possessed by Dallas by .4.

Possibly the most utilized number by professional bettors is yards per point. From the offensive viewpoint the positive checkmark is in the column of Dallas by a mere .1.

Now go to the key numbers on the defensive side of the ball. The yards per rush guide says the better run defense is Dallas by .1

The superior passing yards per completion data on defense give the upper hand to Arizona by that same .1 slim margin,

In terms of yards per point, the better defense is Arizona forcing 1.3 more.

Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

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Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Dallas is 17-4 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, but 1-6 as favorites.

Arizona 15-5 as home underdog of 3.5-10.0, 15-6 after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game, 1-6 grass.

Over/under trends: Dallas over 13-3 all, over 9-0 to NFC. Arizona over 21-7 after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

NFL picks, the Cowboys vs. Cardinals is the big game from a handicapping standpoint, but the top sports handicappers have many a gift from Santa Claus for day action.

Matt Rivers has a Christmas Day winner for Saturday is on da Chicago Bulls +2 at the NY Knicks.

Reasoning: Mike D’Antoni has done a great job thus far with the Knicks as Amare Stoudemire is playing like a total MVP. Add in Ray Felton and Wilson Chandler and a few others including surprising rookie Landry Fields and the Knickerbockers are somewhat back to relevance.

With the above said though New York is still not in the class of today’s opponent as Derrick Rose is phenomenal and an MVP candidate himself and Carlos Boozer is a star as well. The loss of Joakim Noah with that thumb injury wasn’t great but Tom Thibodeaux’s team continues to plug along and win game after game. Chicago has been victorious on the court in 9 out of their last 10 games and have cashed in six of their last seven. The schedule hasn’t exactly been overwhelming with the weaker teams from the East being the fodder but the Bulls are still 18-9 and starting to run away with their division.

Chicago’s defense has been off the charts of late as opponents are consistently shooting around 35% and scoring in the low 80’s. No doubt the Knicks are going to look to run and get out on the break but these Bulls with Rose and Boozer can play at that pace if necessary and should be just fine in doing so.

The Knicks are coming off big games with the Heat, Celtics and Thunder and I’m hard pressed to believe they are going to be able to keep the focus and intensity once more in a small period of time. Plus the distraction of being at home on Christmas day in the bright lights of New York City could turn out to be a negative and especially so in this early noon tip.

Da Bulls will get the job done in da end.

Top expert pick on this game: Chicago +2

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It’s Tulsa vs. Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl.  The offshore and Las Vegas point spread has Hawaii -10 with a total now up to 73.  Tulsa is 9-3 straight up, 8-4 against the spread. Hawaii is 10-3 straight up and 11-3 to the bookmakers. They have covered all seven home games this season.

Tulsa gets 5.2 yards per rush teams that normally allow 4.6, 7.8 yards per pass to 7.3, and 6.4 yards per play to 5.9.

Defensively, they allow 4.0 yards per rush to teams normally getting that same 4.0. However, their pass defense is abysmal allowing 8.1 yards per pass to teams that usually get 7.0 and 6.2 yards per play to 5.5.

Hawaii gets 5.0 yards per rush to defenses that allow an average of 4.7, and outstanding 9.0 yards per pass to 7.8 and 7.7 yards per play to 6.0, all extremely impressive ratings.

On the other side of the ball, Hawaii allows just 3.5 yards per rush versus squads that earn 4.1, 6.7 yards per pass to 7.0 and 4.9 yards per play to 5.4.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): The Golden Hurricanes are on an 8-1 run overall, but are 6-13 as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Warriors are on an 8-0 tear as a chalk, 13-3 overall and 21-8 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Over/under trends: Tulsa has gone under 10-2 after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and under 20-7 after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Hawaii over 8-2 outside the conference.

Top expert pick on this game: ScoresOddsPicks went only 2-1 last night—the second worst performance this month, only making .9 units. That makes them 28-8 the last 36, but this included Miami Ohio +775 on the moneyline in the MAC Championship, Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship as the Best Bet of the Year, and Oakland December 5 as the Underdog Best Bet of the Year, December 19, the Jets as the Oddsmaker Overreaction Best Bet of the Year, and the Bears December 20 as the Monday Night Best Bet of the Postseason. You can see why the bookmakers fear it’s likely the last loser until sometime in 2011.

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It’s Navy vs. San Diego State in the Poinsettia Bowl. San Diego State is a three-point favorite with a total of 57. There is a flood warning in San Diego as the rains have been falling on the field.

Now to the official betting preview. Navy is 9-3 straight up and 7-5 to the number. San Diego State is 8-4 straight up and 7-4 against the spread. Navy is 7-3 their last 10.

Navy averages 5.4 yards per rush to defenses that permit 4.2 and a stunning 10.0 yards per pass to defenses that permit just 7.3. Overall they gets 6.2 yards per play to 5.5.

However, Navy permits 4.4 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.1, 6.6 passing yards per attempt to 6.8 and 5.4 yards per play to 5.3.

San Diego State averages 4.6 yards per rush on offense to teams that normally allow 4.6, 8.8 yards per pass to 7.6 and 6.7 yards per play to 5.9.

They are extremely stout on defense allowing 3.6 yards per rush teams normally getting 4.1, just 6.1 passing yards per attempt to 6.6 and 4.8 yards per play to 5.1.

Top expert pick on this game: Scary good. No great. But the most accurate adjective is unprecedented. ScoresOddsPicks has a lot more winning left in a football betting season that will never be approached. At +46.7 units on one unit per play, it is the sports record most likely to stand forever, but they are not done yet. Recently it’s 26-7. This included Miami Ohio +775 on the moneyline in the MAC Championship, Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship as the Best Bet of the Year, and Oakland December 5 as the Underdog Best Bet of the Year, December 19, the Jets as the Oddsmaker Overreaction Best Bet of the Year, and the Bears December 20 as the Monday Night Best Bet of the Year.

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Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Navy 7-0 to teams with a winning record, 14-2 to Mountain West and 3-7 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

San Diego State is 0-4 off spread win.

Over/under trends: Midshipmen have gone under 6-1 on grass. The Aztecs have gone under 17-2 after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.