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LSU-South Carolina Preview

The LSU Tigers and the South Carolina Gamecocks will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Williams-Brice Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Tigers listed as 3½-point favorites versus the Gamecocks, while the game’s total is sitting at 43.
LSU was defeated 51-21 by Florida in Week 7, as 6.5-point road underdogs. The 72 points sailed OVER the posted total of 46.5.
Jarrett Lee three two TD passes and was intercepted twice in the loss.
Stephen Garcia’s touchdown pass to Weslye Saunders with 7:08 remaining lifted South Carolina over Kentucky 24-17 in Week 7.
South Carolina won as 2.5-point road underdogs as the teams played over the 37.5-point total set by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
South Carolina has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
LSU: 4-1 SU, 1-3 ATS
South Carolina: 5-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS
LSU most recently:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 7-3

South Carolina most recently:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
LSU is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games
LSU is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
South Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
South Carolina is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Next up:
LSU home to Georgia, Saturday, October 25
South Carolina home to Tennessee, Saturday, November 1

 

Missouri-Texas Preview

The Missouri Tigers and the Texas Longhorns will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at Memorial Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Longhorns listed as 4½-point favorites versus the Tigers, while the game’s total is sitting at 65.
Missouri was clipped 28-23 by Oklahoma State in Week 7, as 14.5-point favorites. The 51 points fell UNDER the posted total of 77.
Chase Daniel threw for 390 yards with a TD, while getting intercepted three times in the loss.
Colt McCoy went 28-for-35 for 277 yards with a touchdown, as Texas upset Oklahoma 45-35 at the Cotton Bowl in Week 7.
Texas cashed as 7-point underdogs as the teams played over the 58.5-point total set by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Texas has won 6 straight games.
Team records:
Missouri: 5-1 SU, 3-2 ATS
Texas: 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS
Missouri most recently:
When playing in October are 6-4
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 7-3

Texas most recently:
When playing in October are 9-1
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the conference are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
Missouri is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Missouri’s last 8 games on the road
Missouri is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Missouri is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Next up:
Missouri home to Colorado, Saturday, October 25
Texas home to Oklahoma State, Saturday, October 25

 

 

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Saturday, October 18, 2008

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CFB

BOSTON COLLEGE -2.5 Virginia Tech

This game illustrates why ratings are so much more accurate than rankings. Virginia Tech’s success is because they average 175 yards rushing per game, but a closer look shows that they get just 3.8 yards per carry against teams normally allowing 4.2. Now they face a BC team that holds teams to .8 yards per rush below their normal average.

Overall they allow 4.2 yards per play to teams normally getting 4.7. Tech is actually below average on offense and on defense. They are a paper Hokie. BC is above average on both sides of the ball.

Even the rankings tells us that Tech is not as good as their record. The Hokies are ranked 107th nationally in total offense, averaging 292.8 yards per game, their lowest average since 1987, when Virginia Tech averaged 261.7 yards per game in Beamer’s first season.

The Hokies’ defense, which was ranked third, first, and second the last three seasons, is now ranked 35th, allowing an average of 314.3 yards per game.

Now they have two starters suffering season-ending injuries the last two games – rover back Davon Morgan (torn anterior cruciate ligament) and tailback Kenny Lewis (ruptured Achilles’). Morgan and Lewis were also the Hokies’ primary kick returners. This is the youngest team Frank Beamer ever coached.

 

Oregon State-Washington Preview

The fans at Husky Stadium will be treated to a game between the Oregon State Beavers and the Washington Huskies when they take their seats on Saturday.
Oddsmakers currently have the Beavers listed as 16-point favorites versus the Huskies, while the game’s total is sitting at 60.
Lyle Moevao threw three touchdown passes in leading Oregon State to a 66-13 rout of Washington State in Week 7. Oregon State covered the 30.5-point spread, and the combined 79 points sailed OVER the posted total of 54.
Moevao completed 13-of-25 pass attempts for 203 yards, and ran for a TD in the win.
Washington was defeated 48-14 by Arizona in Week 6, as 24-point road underdogs. The 62 points made it OVER the posted total of 58.5.
Ronnie Fouch threw for 181 yards with a touchdown in the loss.
Current streak:
Washington has lost 5 straight games.
Team records:
Oregon State: 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS
Washington: 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS
Oregon State most recently:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 8-2

Washington most recently:
When playing in October are 0-10
When playing on turf are 1-9
After being outgained are 0-10
When playing within the conference are 2-8

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon State’s last 5 games on the road
Oregon State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington’s last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington’s last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington’s last 5 games when playing Oregon State
Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Next up:
Oregon State home to Arizona State, Saturday, November 1
Washington home to Notre Dame, Saturday, October 25

 

Kansas State-Colorado Preview

The Kansas State Wildcats and the Colorado Buffaloes will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at Folsom Field.
Oddsmakers currently have the Buffaloes listed as 3½-point favorites versus the Wildcats, while the game’s total is sitting at 59.
Quarterback Josh Freeman ran for 95 yards on 18 carries with four touchdowns to lead Kansas State past Texas A&M 44-30 in Week 7.
Kansas State won as 3.5-point road favorites as the game played over the 63-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Cody Hawkins went 8-for-22 for 90 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions for Colorado in its 30-14 loss to Kansas in Week 7.
Kansas covered as 14-point home favorites as the game played under the 54-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Colorado has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Kansas State: 4-2 SU, 2-3 ATS
Colorado: 3-3 SU, 2-3 ATS
Kansas State most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 4-6

Colorado most recently:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 1-9
When playing within the conference are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas State’s last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas State’s last 6 games when playing Colorado
Kansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
Kansas State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado’s last 6 games when playing Kansas State
Colorado is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas State
Colorado is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas State
Next up:
Kansas State home to Oklahoma, Saturday, October 25
Colorado at Missouri, Saturday, October 25

 

Kansas-Oklahoma Preview

The Kansas Jayhawks and the Oklahoma Sooners will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Memorial Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Sooners listed as 20-point favorites versus the Jayhawks, while the game’s total is sitting at 61.
Jake Sharp ran for 118 yards on 31 attempts with three touchdowns to lead Kansas past Colorado 30-14 in Week 7.
Kansas covered as 14-point home favorites as the game played under the 54-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Sam Bradford was 28-for-39 for 387 yards with five TD passes and an interception for Oklahoma in its 45-35 loss to Texas at the Cotton Bowl in Week 7.
Texas cashed as 7-point underdogs as the teams played over the 58.5-point total set by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Kansas has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Kansas: 5-1 SU, 3-2 ATS
Oklahoma: 5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS
Kansas most recently:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 9-1

Oklahoma most recently:
When playing in October are 8-2
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 8-2

A few trends to consider:
Kansas is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games
Kansas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Kansas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Kansas is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Oklahoma is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
Oklahoma is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Oklahoma is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma’s last 5 games
Next up:
Kansas home to Texas Tech, Saturday, October 25
Oklahoma at Kansas State, Saturday, October 25

 

Ohio State-Michigan State Preview

The Ohio State Buckeyes and the Michigan State Spartans will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Spartan Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Buckeyes listed as 3½-point favorites versus the Spartans, while the game’s total is sitting at 42.
Beanie Wells ran for 95 yards on 22 carries, as Ohio State handled Purdue 16-3 in Week 7.
Ohio State couldn’t cash as 18-point home favorites as the game played under the 43.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Javon Ringer ran for 124 yards on 35 carries with two touchdowns to lead Michigan State past Northwestern 37-20 in Week 7.
Michigan State covered as 3-point road favorites as the game played over the 44-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Ohio State has won 4 straight games.
Michigan State has won 6 straight games.
Team records:
Ohio State: 6-1 SU, 1-5
ATS
Michigan State
: 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS
Ohio State most recently:
When playing in October are 10-0
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 9-1

Michigan State most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Michigan State
Ohio State is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Ohio State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ohio State’s last 6 games
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan State’s last 5 games at home
Michigan State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Next up:
Ohio State home to Penn State, Saturday, October 25
Michigan State at Michigan, Saturday, October 25

 

North Carolina-Virginia Preview

The North Carolina Tar Heels and the Virginia Cavaliers will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at Scott Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Tar Heels listed as 4½-point favorites versus the Cavaliers, while the game’s total is sitting at 45.
Cameron Sexton’s 4-yard touchdown run early in the fourth quarter lifted North Carolina over Notre Dame 29-24 in Week 7.
UNC covered as 5.5-point home favorites as the teams played over the 47-point total posted by oddsmakers.
Cedric Peerman ran for 173 yards on 16 carries with two touchdowns to lead Virginia past East Carolina 35-20 in Week 7.
Virginia covered as 4-point home underdogs as the teams played over the 41.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
North Carolina has won 3 straight games.
Virginia has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
North Carolina: 5-1 SU, 3-2 ATS
Virginia: 3-3 SU, 2-3 ATS
North Carolina most recently:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 4-6

Virginia most recently:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the conference are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
North Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina’s last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Carolina’s last 5 games when playing Virginia
Virginia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against North Carolina
Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against North Carolina
Virginia is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing North Carolina
Virginia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing North Carolina
Next up:
North Carolina home to Boston College, Saturday, October 25
Virginia at Georgia Tech, Saturday, October 25

 

Southern California-Washington State Preview

The Southern Cal Trojans and the Washington State Cougars will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Martin Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Trojans listed as 42½-point favorites versus the Cougars, while the game’s total is sitting at 58.
Joe McKnight rushed for 143 yards on 11 carries, as USC dropped Arizona State 28-0 in Week 7.
Southern California covered as 25.5-point home favorites as the game played under the 46.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Washington State was pounded 66-13 by Oregon State in Week 7, as 30.5-point road underdogs. The combined 79 points sailed OVER the posted total of 54.
Chantz Staden ran for 47 yards with a touchdown for Washington State.
Current streak:
Southern Cal has won 2 straight games.
Washington State has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Southern Cal: 4-1 SU, 4-1
ATS
Washington State
: 1-6 SU, 0-6 ATS
Southern Cal most recently:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 7-3

Washington State most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington State
Southern Cal is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Southern Cal is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Southern Cal is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington State’s last 6 games when playing Southern Cal
Washington State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Southern Cal
Washington State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Southern Cal
Next up:
Southern Cal at Arizona, Saturday, October 25
Washington State at Stanford, Saturday, November 1

 

Mississippi-Alabama Preview

The Mississippi Rebels and the Alabama Crimson Tide will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Crimson Tide listed as 12-point favorites versus the Rebels, while the game’s total is sitting at 49.
Jevan Snead threw for 241 yards and one touchdown for Mississippi as they lost 31-24 to South Carolina in Week 6.
The Rebels failed to cover the 1.5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day’s posted total of 42.5.
Glen Coffee ran for 218 yards on 25 carries with a touchdown to lead Alabama past Kentucky 17-14 in Week 6.
Alabama couldn’t cover as 17-point home favorites as the game played under the 44.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Alabama has won 6 straight games.
Team records:
Mississippi: 3-3 SU, 3-2 ATS
Alabama: 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS
Mississippi most recently:
When playing in October are 2-8
When playing on grass are 1-9
After being outgained are 2-8
When playing within the conference are 1-9

Alabama most recently:
When playing in October are 9-1
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
Mississippi is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Alabama
Mississippi is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Mississippi is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Alabama
Mississippi is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Mississippi
Alabama is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Mississippi
Alabama is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
Mississippi at Arkansas, Saturday, October 25
Alabama at Tennessee, Saturday, October 25