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Lord of the Dance’s Greatest Hits
Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)
We’ve written many articles over the years about winning
in March Madness. We’ve also included
nuggets in our Tid-bets about how to have a March of Dimes. But let’s review some of the best winning
strategies here on the K-Tel of our Marching Hymns.
·
Depth is more important in conference play than
any point of the year. Teams are playing
three and four days in a row. Previous
boxscores loom huge in conference tourney play
·
Read press releases closely for the conference
tournaments (or our news and notes at JoeDuffy.net). Often coaches and players of teams that are
“locks” for the Big Dance will subtly or not-so-subtly admit when resting
players is more important than winning the conference postseason title
·
Don’t fall for the “handicap guard play”
trap. Virtually every team that makes
the Dance and many that miss it have strong guard play. Few teams compliment it with talent as the
three, four and five spot. Those are the
teams that advance and cover
·
Talent is infinitely more important than
experience. Few teams have a lot of both.
I handicap talent first and foremost. Don’t fall in love with mediocre
teams just because they are senior laden
·
Take emotion in the first half lines of the
first round. A big underdog making a
rare NCAA appearance or especially first ever, more times than you’d expect are
able to keep it close against traditional powers in the first 20 minutes of the
ballgame
·
Unlike the college bowls, finishing the season
strong does go a long way. Momentum is
much more important in the hoop postseason than football
·
Don’t handicap neutral games as if they are road
games for both teams. One of the biggest
myths in sports handicapping is that road record is indicative of neutral court
play
·
However propinquity of schools to the site is
very important. If one team had to make a much longer trip, we do favor the
team that is significantly closer to the game location
·
At one time fading the chic mid-majors after the
first round was as good as gold. However
the gap between the rich, middle class and poor conferences continues to
narrow. “Strength of schedule” rankings still play a part though. Massey’s consensus power ratings and
Foxsheets are the most accurate
·
With so many square players coming out of the
woodwork for Madness and different books catering to different clientele, line
shopping is more important (more lucrative opportunities) in March Madness then
ever. This is especially true with
totals.
·
Be careful about playing in any high stakes
bracket tournament because it can and generally will bias you and inhibit your
ability to make proper adjustments as the NCAA tournament goes on
·
The NIT small conference teams are great plays
in the first two rounds. They almost
always have the David versus Goliath motivational advantage, not to mention the
NIT is a major tourney for the bottom rung conferences
·
Big conference teams though become bigger plays
as the NIT goes on. Clearly with a win
or two under their belt, there should be little doubt about how much they
“want” to win. Plus for financial
reasons the bigger conference teams are often playing all at home while the
tiny conferences are forced to win consecutive big games on the road. It’s all about the money to the organizers
and the bettors
·
In NIT picking, it’s the mid major bubble
outsiders that generally feel they have something to prove. Big 10, ACC, Big East outside-looking-in
teams make quick exits, unless they have their entire nucleus coming back the
following year and it’s a true “building block” tournament
·
Satellite and internet radio is a bigger tool
than ever. Both are great resources for
the inside skinny
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. His daily and advanced news and notes
directly from his private clipboard are linked from the home page of www.godspicks.com or get them at JoeDuffy.net They will be “must read” for all gamblers
during and beyond March Madness
