Four NFL free picks from superstar handicapper Joe Duffy. I am 34-17 NFL and 63-36 in football! Follow my premium picks on OffshoreInsiders.com
Jets at Ravens (-14.5, 45)
- Going with very bad underdog based on sweat barometer is 296-207-8 (Jets)
- At least a 118-point difference for season on ats margin, go with worse team is 139-95-9 as Ravens league best 11-2 by +10.2 points per game (Jets)
- Better team in short week unless they had substantially more snaps is 82-34 (Ravens)
- Go with teams with at 90 fewer snaps on the season is 208-159-10 (Jets)
- Jets final three games Ravens, Steelers, Bills
The pick: Jets +14.5
Pats (-10, 40.5) at Bengals
- Anti-splits angle about fading road teams who have been better on road than home team has been at home is 141-104-11 (Cincinnati)
- Much worse run defense late in season is 59-31-3 (Cincinnati)
- Home underdogs of 9.5 in week 15 or later are 32-19 (Cincinnati)
- Bengals franchise WR A.J. Green considered day-to-day
The picks: Cincinnati +10
Rams at Cowboys (-3, 47)
- Surprise stat: Dallas +64 point margin on year but under .500…
- Going against teams with better points per game margin than record is 78-52-3 (Rams)
- Favorites with +15 or more edge for season in points margin, yet two fewer wins are 22-15-1 (Dallas)
The pick: Rams +3
Vikings (-3, 45) at Chargers
- Worse turnover team is 538-407-30 (Chargers)
- Vikings WR Adam Thielen is probable after missing six of last seven games
- Minnesota averaging 24.5 points per game without him
- Fading home underdogs off win of 21 or more is 16-6 since 2012 (Vikings)
The pick: LA Chargers +3
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