{"id":620,"date":"2006-07-16T12:50:20","date_gmt":"2006-07-16T17:50:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2006\/07\/go-against-and-with-in-the-second-half\/"},"modified":"2006-07-16T12:50:20","modified_gmt":"2006-07-16T17:50:20","slug":"go-against-and-with-in-the-second-half","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2006\/07\/go-against-and-with-in-the-second-half\/","title":{"rendered":"Go Against and With in the Second Half"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><head><br \/>\n<META name=\"verify-v1\" content=\"++LUSQMO8W74hU3q\/aZSpC+bedvF5pQ6kEG3EzwwBUU=\" \/><br \/>\n<\/head><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.godspicks.com\" target=_blank><img\nsrc=\" http:\/\/godspicks.com\/topsites\/banners\/Nt131-1.gif\"\nborder=0><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<h1>Overvalued and Undervalued Second-Half Pitchers and Teams<\/h1>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Joe Duffy (<a\nhref=\"http:\/\/p6.hostingprod.com\/@joeduffy.net\/\">JoeDuffy.net<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>As we\u2019ve said a gazillion times\u2014and make it a gazillion<br \/>\nand one\u2014we do not ever blindly bet any one system, theory et al, but we have<br \/>\ncopious starting points.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0 <\/span>A case in point<br \/>\nwould be teams or pitchers we believe will be good value for sports bettors to<br \/>\ngo against or with. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Here are some highlights of that list:<\/p>\n<h2>Undervalued:<\/h2>\n<p class=MsoBodyText><st1:City><st1:place><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Atlanta<\/b><\/st1:place><\/st1:City>,<br \/>\nthe Braves are already turning it up.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0 <\/span>As<br \/>\nyou know, we have had great success in handicapping the mental part of the<br \/>\ngame.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0 <\/span>Even with stars like Greg Maddux<br \/>\nand Tom <span class=SpellE>Glavine<\/span> long gone, the fact that <st1:City><st1:place>Atlanta<\/st1:place><\/st1:City><br \/>\nhas won 14 straight division titles gives them the feeling of invincibility. However<br \/>\nTim Hudson could be an exception as trusted opinions tell me they think he<br \/>\ncould be fighting an injury. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Jeff Weaver, <\/b>Cardinals<br \/>\nstarter. The sportsbooks have not taken into account his move back to the NL<br \/>\nputs him in a pitcher friendly park.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0<br \/>\n<\/span>Wise sports gamblers know that 90 percent of pitchers perform better<br \/>\nknowing they are likely to get run support. Pitching for the Redbirds accomplishes<br \/>\njust that. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Felix Hernandez<\/b>,<br \/>\nMariners starter. Here is a guy we faded when he was overvalued, now he has<br \/>\nactually pitched better than his numbers.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0<br \/>\n<\/span>Hitters are producing twice the number of ground balls as fly balls<br \/>\nagainst him, so look out. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Chris Young<\/b>,<br \/>\nPadres starter.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0 <\/span>Young actually has<br \/>\nmiddling numbers at home, but he\u2019s much better than he has shown.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0 <\/span>History proves that pitchers with (relatively<br \/>\nspeaking) more impressive road numbers have much more of an upside. He is also<br \/>\nranked much higher in WHIP than ERA, the single best precursor to a pitcher who<br \/>\nwill raise the bar. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Dave Bush<\/b>, Brewers<br \/>\nstarter.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0 <\/span>Though we must admit, he\u2019s<br \/>\nbetter at home, Bush is another guy who ranks much higher in WHIP than ERA. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<h2>Overvalued: <\/h2>\n<p class=MsoBodyText><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Francisco Liriano<\/b>,<br \/>\nTwins starter. How many times have we crushed the sportsbooks by fading Second<br \/>\nComings who proved not to be?<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0 <\/span>Liriano no<br \/>\nlonger is pitching under the radar. The burden of high expectations is new<br \/>\nterritory for him. <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText><st1:City><st1:place><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Detroit<\/b><\/st1:place><\/st1:City>,<br \/>\nfew argue they are far and away the surprise of the first half. Manager Jim<br \/>\nLeyland has always been his best in getting teams to play with emotion.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0 <\/span>But as we are in the dog days, talent<br \/>\noverrides emotion.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0 <\/span>It\u2019s much more of a<br \/>\ncase of everything going right for the Tigers than everyone being wrong about<br \/>\nhow good this team is. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText><st1:City><st1:place><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Houston<\/b><\/st1:place><\/st1:City><b\nstyle='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>, <\/b>they have underachieved as much as<br \/>\nany team and have a great upside.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0<br \/>\n<\/span>Repeat, we are big believers in the mental aspect, so adding stopper<br \/>\nRoger Clemens can be a boost overall, not just when he\u2019s on the hill. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:Dotum'>The famed<br \/>\nscorephone Tailgate Party goes high tech this football season at <a\nhref=\"http:\/\/p6.hostingprod.com\/@joeduffy.net\/\">JoeDuffy.net<\/a> We start the<br \/>\nweek out with advanced news and notes from Joe Duffy of <a\nhref=\"http:\/\/www.godspicks.com\/\">Godspicks.com<\/a> , top computer trends from<\/span><b\nstyle='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'> <a\nhref=\"http:\/\/p6.hostingprod.com\/@joeduffy.net\/blog\/2006\/04\/knockout_picks_changes_the_han.html\"><span\nstyle='font-weight:normal'>forensic handicapper <\/span><\/a><span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0<\/span>Stevie Vincent <\/b>of <a\nhref=\"http:\/\/www.knockoutpicks.com\/\">KnockoutPicks.com<\/a>, live weather radar,<br \/>\nsportsbook contests, free sports service picks, late breaking injuries on game<br \/>\nday, and more to \u201cbeat the screen\u201d on the sports information superhighway at <a\nhref=\"http:\/\/p6.hostingprod.com\/@joeduffy.net\/\">JoeDuffy.net<\/a><span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0 <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Overvalued and Undervalued Second-Half Pitchers and Teams Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net) As we\u2019ve said a gazillion times\u2014and make it a gazillion and one\u2014we do not ever blindly bet any one system, theory et al, but we have copious starting points.\u00a0 A case in point would be teams or pitchers we believe will be good value for &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2006\/07\/go-against-and-with-in-the-second-half\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Go Against and With in the Second Half<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sports_gambling_strategy_articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=620"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/620\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}