{"id":528,"date":"2006-06-16T16:51:22","date_gmt":"2006-06-16T21:51:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2006\/06\/when-to-specify-pitchers\/"},"modified":"2006-06-16T16:51:22","modified_gmt":"2006-06-16T21:51:22","slug":"when-to-specify-pitchers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2006\/06\/when-to-specify-pitchers\/","title":{"rendered":"When To Specify Pitchers"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

When to Specify Pitchers in Betting Baseball<\/h1>\n

Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com<\/a>)<\/h2>\n

Most gamblers always specify pitchers when making a
\nbaseball bet.\u00a0 <\/span>As a point of fact, injudiciously
\nmany handicappers make their bets based almost exclusively on starting pitchers.\u00a0 <\/span>Few articles we\u2019ve ever written have gotten
\nas much response along the lines of \u201ceye opening\u201d in many cases even years
\nlater, than our \u201cClich\u00e9s
\nabout Pitching and Defense are Offensive<\/a>\u201d essay. <\/p>\n

We document the truth that many would consider
\nsacrilegious\u2014that so many gamblers overvalue pitching, oblivious to how much
\nthe odds have starting pitching built in. Before your blood boils, if you never
\nread said column, go to the archives at JoeDuffy.net<\/a> and read it
\nwith an open mind.\u00a0 <\/span>Don\u2019t judge right
\naway. Track the theories for a few months and even years, as many of our
\nconverts have.\u00a0 <\/span>We look forward to your
\nfeedback. <\/p>\n

Remember though, the key in baseball betting is not
\nwinning percentage.\u00a0 <\/span>Chalk addicts can
\nhit 60 percent of their plays and lose money, while dog specialists (ahem) can
\nhit 45 percent of their plays and win.\u00a0
\n<\/span>Knowledge and proper management of probability\/risk ratio is what
\nbaseball handicapping is all about.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

A major danger in designating pitchers is if a great deal
\nof your handicapping has to do with the teams involved, you could get screwed
\nby a last minute scratch pitcher. \u00a0<\/span>A
\nlarge percentage of changed hurlers involve a pitcher getting scratched in
\nwarm-ups,<\/span> where there is little time to change a bet.
\nA last minute pitching change may not change how you feel on the game, but it
\nscrews you out of a play. <\/p>\n

The 2006 NY Yankees have had their share of injuries.\u00a0 <\/span>Perhaps you are waiting on them to get 100
\npercent healthy among their starting eight and ride them during an anticipated
\nwinning streak.\u00a0 <\/span>Or say the Pirates have
\nan on base percentage of .398 over their last seven games. \u00a0<\/span>They face a Met team that is hitting .208
\ntheir last seven games with an on base percentage of just .252 and their
\noverused and injury riddled bullpen is struggling as well. <\/p>\n

Furthermore the game is in Pittsburgh<\/st1:place><\/st1:City>
\nwhere in location comparison (home team\u2019s home stats, road team\u2019s road stats)
\nthe Pirates are excelling. Yet based on the fact Pedro Martinez is pitching for
\nthe Mets, Pittsburgh<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> (after the
\njuice) is a 160 dog. <\/p>\n

The square player may actually believe this would be a
\nrare case in which not listing Martinez<\/st1:place><\/st1:City>
\nwould be a good play, because if he\u2019s scratched, it would increase the Pirates
\nchance of winning. <\/p>\n

Perhaps, but sharp players only wonder would it improve the
\nprobability\/risk ratio? <\/h3>\n

The probability\/risk ratio says the Pirates would have to
\nhave at least a 38 percent chance of winning (at plus-160) to make it a good
\npercentage play.\u00a0 <\/span>You handicap they have
\na 52 percent for a +14 percent net. \u00a0<\/span>Hence
\nit\u2019s a good bet. <\/p>\n

Your selection is in no way going against Martinez<\/st1:place><\/st1:City>,
\nbut since the odds and hence the probability\/risk ratio is based on Martinez<\/st1:place><\/st1:City>
\npitching, this is a circumstance in which we would specify we are going against
\nMartinez<\/st1:place><\/st1:City>. <\/p>\n

Why?\u00a0 <\/span>Alay<\/span> Soler<\/span> becomes the Mets
\npitcher and it increases our chances of winning only to 57 percent, because it
\nwas offensive, momentum and bullpen factors behind our original play. But the
\nnew pitching matchup makes Pittsburgh<\/st1:place><\/st1:City>
\na 145 favorite, which requires a 59.2 winning percentage.\u00a0 <\/span>You\u2019ve only handicapped Pittsburgh<\/st1:place><\/st1:City>
\nto have a 57 percent chance, so your probability\/risk ratio is a negative 2.7
\npercent. Hence going with Pittsburgh<\/st1:place><\/st1:City>
\nis a bad bet. <\/p>\n

Most gamblers who don\u2019t blindly always delineate pitchers
\nsubscribe to what seem like obvious rules of thumb:<\/p>\n

\u00b7       
\n<\/span><\/span><\/span>If your bet is based predominately on going
\nagainst or for one pitcher, specify only that pitcher<\/p>\n

\u00b7       
\n<\/span><\/span><\/span>If your bet is based on a combination and
\npreponderance of going for one and against the other pitcher, specify both<\/p>\n

\u00b7       
\n<\/span><\/span><\/span>If your bet has minimal pitching advantage but
\nis based on one team having a huge edge, specify neither pitcher<\/p>\n

 <\/o:p><\/p>\n

But the flaw in that thinking is it overlooks our favorite
\ncircumstance:<\/p>\n

\u00b7       
\n<\/span><\/span><\/span>Picking with a team despite having a pitching
\ndisadvantage and hence disproportionately beneficial odds (example as above: betting
\nthe hot, much better-at-home Pirates against the struggling Mets with Martinez<\/st1:place><\/st1:City>)<\/p>\n

 <\/o:p><\/p>\n

Some may think that it\u2019s a good idea to cover your assets
\nand always specify pitchers based on what we said.\u00a0 <\/span>Nope.\u00a0
\n<\/span>Anytime we are picking team against team and it does not involve picking
\nagainst a star pitcher or picking with a stiff pitcher, a scratch is unlikely
\nto drastically change the probability\/risk ratio, so we don\u2019t specify starters.<\/p>\n

A devil\u2019s advocate may point out what if you are picking
\nwith Braves who have beneficial odds thanks to Jorge Sosa pitching, but he is
\nscratched. \u00a0<\/span>John Smoltz<\/span>
\nis next in line and he starts.\u00a0 <\/span>The risk
\nis we go from picking a huge dog to a huge favorite by not specifying pitchers.
\n\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The reason we are more often willing to take that
\nparticular risk is managers are much more cautious with their star pitchers and
\nan undisputed ace isn\u2019t as likely to be thrown in on a moment\u2019s notice.\u00a0 <\/span>But we still acknowledge that
\nprobability\/risk ratio potential pitfall. Hence, one has to strongly consider
\nthe likely starters for each team in the event of a scratch pitcher. <\/p>\n

Thankfully scratch pitchers are not extremely common and
\nover a long season specifying and not specifying pitchers is very doubtful to
\nmake the difference in a winning and losing season.\u00a0 <\/span>However we accurately preach every small edge
\nadds up, so don\u2019t underestimate the importance of when and when not to check
\nand uncheck one or both starters. <\/p>\n

Overlooking the probability\/risk ratio involved is a major
\nfacet that keeps square players subsidizing the books for the rest of us. <\/p>\n

The famed
\nscorephone Tailgate Party goes high tech this football season at JoeDuffy.net<\/span><\/a> We start the
\nweek out with advanced news and notes from Joe Duffy of Godspicks.com<\/span><\/a> , top computer trends from<\/span> forensic handicapper <\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>Stevie Vincent <\/b>of KnockoutPicks.com<\/span><\/a>, live weather radar,
\nsportsbook contests, free sports service picks, late breaking injuries on game
\nday, and more to \u201cbeat the screen\u201d on the sports information superhighway at JoeDuffy.net<\/span><\/a>\u00a0 <\/span><\/o:p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When to Specify Pitchers in Betting Baseball Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com) Most gamblers always specify pitchers when making a baseball bet.\u00a0 As a point of fact, injudiciously many handicappers make their bets based almost exclusively on starting pitchers.\u00a0 Few articles we\u2019ve ever written have gotten as much response along the lines of \u201ceye opening\u201d in many … Continue reading When To Specify Pitchers<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sports_gambling_strategy_articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/528","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=528"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/528\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=528"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=528"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=528"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}