{"id":440,"date":"2006-05-25T14:52:38","date_gmt":"2006-05-25T19:52:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2006\/05\/never-assume-the-obvious\/"},"modified":"2006-05-25T14:52:38","modified_gmt":"2006-05-25T19:52:38","slug":"never-assume-the-obvious","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2006\/05\/never-assume-the-obvious\/","title":{"rendered":"Never Assume the Obvious"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a><\/p>\n

Never Assume the Obvious Is My Heartfelt Advice <\/h1>\n

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net<\/span><\/b><\/a>)<\/o:p><\/p>\n

I don\u2019t want to toot my own horn, but too late, I\u2019m going
\nto.\u00a0 <\/span>I have had many a webmaster, content
\nmanager, editor etc., tell me that they love my articles because I actually
\nhave original ideas and substance.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

But I don\u2019t want to toot my own horn.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

The horror stories are the same regarding the gobblygook<\/span> from the touts-come-lately: 95 percent of the
\narticles submitted fit into one of three categories.\u00a0 <\/span>The first is the cheesy sales pitch, \u201cIt
\ntakes contacts, information and hours of work.\u00a0
\n<\/span>I have that\u2026yada<\/span> yada<\/span>.\u201d\u00a0 <\/span>No elaboration or substantiation follows,
\njust a rambling sales pitch in which a tout thinks qualifies for publication.<\/p>\n

The next is the ever popular money management article in
\nwhich half the touts only expose that they don\u2019t understand the concept
\nthemselves. Finally there is the overstating and regurgitation of the self
\nevident.\u00a0 <\/span>Topping the list of toutspeak<\/span> is \u201cbet with your head, not with your
\nheart.\u201d\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

While I can\u2019t deny there are degenerates who must be
\nreminded of that no-so-enlightened epiphany, every wannabee<\/span>
\nhandicapper believes they are speaking from Mt.<\/st1:PlaceType>
\nSinai<\/st1:PlaceName><\/st1:place> in asserting the apparent. <\/p>\n

Yet in the favorite-team-of-the-moment that is sports
\ngambling, there is a less glaring truth within the heart\/head rule. Bet with
\nyour head and not your broken heart.\u00a0
\n<\/span>It\u2019s amazing how many intelligent people with total seriousness have
\ntold me that for example the last four of five times they bet for or against
\nthe Sheboygan Shamrocks they lost.\u00a0 <\/span>Hence
\nthey refuse to bet on a game involving them. \u201cI just can\u2019t seem to get a handle
\non them, so I avoid them altogether\u201d I\u2019ve heard.<\/p>\n

Sometimes I hear somebody tell me that Team X has been
\n\u201ctoo good to me when I\u2019ve bet on them. I can\u2019t bet against them\u201d. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Save your loyalties for your spouse or
\ngirlfriend\u2026or both.\u00a0 <\/span>Betting is often
\nabout loving and leaving at the appropriate moment. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Simply put it comes down to what we call \u201cpsychological
\njuice\u201d.\u00a0 <\/span>The best handicappers will lose
\n40 percent of the time and accept it as the cost of doing business. When the
\nsquare player loses with for example Duke over Western Michigan<\/st1:place>,
\nhe seems to find consolation in knowing he lost with a superior team. <\/p>\n

Smart players find solace only if they canceled it out
\nwith two winners.\u00a0 <\/span>Yet if somehow the
\ntypical gambler has Western Michigan<\/st1:place> plus-24 points and
\nthey lose by 26, it becomes once bitten, twice shy. Losing with the greatly
\ninferior team causes the gambler to second guess himself much more than a chalk
\ncoming up short ever will.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

The same can be said with totals. There is no glory
\nseemingly in betting the Phoenix Suns to go under the total.\u00a0 <\/span>And while I will admit to despising it when my
\nhandicapping comes up with Phoenix under, or for example the Rams under in the
\nMartz era, I can\u2019t allow the fear of heart stomping sweating out the total
\nuntil the end get in the way of my bets. <\/p>\n

It takes a lot of guts for me to publicly admit to knowing
\nBee Gees lyrics, but in their song \u201cHow Can You Mend a Broken Heart\u201d they ask
\n\u201cHow can a loser ever win?\u201d<\/p>\n

A loser can win by not betting with his broken heart. <\/p>\n

Today\u2019s free winner<\/span><\/b><\/a> (no password needed), late
\nbreaking information as game time approaches, and advanced news and notes<\/span><\/b><\/a> are at JoeDuffy.net
\n<\/span><\/b><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>Premium picks are at www.godspicks.com<\/span><\/b><\/a>
\n<\/o:p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Never Assume the Obvious Is My Heartfelt Advice Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net) I don\u2019t want to toot my own horn, but too late, I\u2019m going to.\u00a0 I have had many a webmaster, content manager, editor etc., tell me that they love my articles because I actually have original ideas and substance.\u00a0 But I don\u2019t want to … Continue reading Never Assume the Obvious<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sports_gambling_strategy_articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=440"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}