{"id":19195,"date":"2022-09-25T19:28:01","date_gmt":"2022-09-26T00:28:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/?p=19195"},"modified":"2022-09-25T19:28:04","modified_gmt":"2022-09-26T00:28:04","slug":"this-is-how-pros-bet-nfl-how-was-your-day-without-joe-duffys-picks-begin-the-rest-of-your-betting-life-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2022\/09\/this-is-how-pros-bet-nfl-how-was-your-day-without-joe-duffys-picks-begin-the-rest-of-your-betting-life-now\/","title":{"rendered":"This is How Pros Bet NFL; How Was Your Day Without Joe Duffy’s Picks? Begin the Rest of Your Betting Life Now"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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I do not know the personnel as well as others. I\u2019ve been gambling for about 40 years and a pro gambler and handicapper since 1988. It\u2019s about advanced analytics. It\u2019s why those of us who rely on artificial intelligence are better than everyone else. Do you have this kind of NextGen info when you bet? If not, your choice has consequences. Thanks for keeping the books in biz for us pros. Or begin the rest of your life at OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a> with Joe Duffy\u2019s Picks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

NFL<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wise Guy<\/p>\n\n\n\n

HOUSTON +2.5 Chicago<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Road dogs in non-divisional games based on completion percentage and rushing yards per attempt are 59-16-1. Admittedly a coin flip in recent years, but as corroborating evidence, road teams off road loss are a good bet 346-296-18. Going against favorites who are almost always underdogs is 160-98-12. Houston is a weird 1-0-1 SU, losing on the road. Chicago is 1-1 SU, winning to San Francisco at home, implying Bears are the better team. But I have told you for decades straight up record is the most deceiving stat in sports. Home field is worth three points, yet Chicago, with the better record is laying less than that. When the overall and splits records both strongly imply the road team should be a much bigger dog, but are not, we weaponize that against them with a 106-67 record. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

ATLANTA +2 Seattle <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Road dogs in non-divisional games based on completion percentage and rushing yards per attempt are 59-16-1. Admittedly a coin flip in recent years, but as corroborating evidence, road teams off road loss are a good bet 346-296-18. Going against favorites who are almost always underdogs is 160-98-12.  When the overall and splits records both strongly imply the road team should be a much bigger dog, but are not, we weaponize that against them with a 106-67 record. Yes this is a pick. We cut and pasted the Houston example by accident, but the same system applies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GREEN BAY +2 Tampa <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Betting on the more disappointing defense based on delta points allowed is 348-239-15. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the average team total. Road teams winless on the road are 191-132 under specific situations that apply in this game. Fading teams in home opener in week 3 is 60-37. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PHILADELPHIA -6.5 Washington<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the home team has been better home than in the road, regression to the mean angle favors the road team 157-113-1. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

DETROIT +6 Minnesota <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the home team has been better home than in the road, regression to the mean angle favors the road team 157-113-1. Betting on the more disappointing defense based on delta points allowed is 348-239-15. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the average team total. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Washington-Philadelphia UNDER 47<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 1550-1217-61. It is okay in playoffs, but much better in regular season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carolina-New Orleans UNDER 40.5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 1550-1217-61. It is okay in playoffs, but much better in regular season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

LA Rams-Arizona UNDER 49 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 1550-1217-61. It is okay in playoffs, but much better in regular season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atlanta-Seattle UNDER 42<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 1550-1217-61. It is okay in playoffs, but much better in regular season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I do not know the personnel as well as others. I\u2019ve been gambling for about 40 years and a pro gambler and handicapper since 1988. It\u2019s about advanced analytics. It\u2019s why those of us who rely on artificial intelligence are better than everyone else. Do you have this kind of NextGen info when you bet? … Continue reading This is How Pros Bet NFL; How Was Your Day Without Joe Duffy’s Picks? Begin the Rest of Your Betting Life Now<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","hentry","category-uncategorized","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19195","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19195"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19195\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19196,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19195\/revisions\/19196"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}