{"id":18612,"date":"2021-09-15T09:47:32","date_gmt":"2021-09-15T14:47:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/?p=18612"},"modified":"2021-09-15T09:47:35","modified_gmt":"2021-09-15T14:47:35","slug":"nfl-prop-bets-take-major-advantage-of-oddsmaker-overreaction-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2021\/09\/nfl-prop-bets-take-major-advantage-of-oddsmaker-overreaction-now\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Prop Bets: Take Major Advantage of Oddsmaker Overreaction Now"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery columns-0 is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\"><ul class=\"blocks-gallery-grid\"><\/ul><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Week 1 of the NFL regular season is in the books, but plenty of storylines emerged from the action on the field.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/record.commissionkings.ag\/_ejy4onLiLhHT2Fu8bIPGIGNd7ZgqdRLk\/1\/\">SportsBetting<\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;has rolled out a host of prop bets to accompany some of the hottest topics circulating in the league. If you have any odds requests, please don&#8217;t hesitate to reach out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Will Patrick Mahomes lose a game in September?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes -120<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No -120<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Mahomes is 11-0 in 11 September starts during his career.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Will Patrick Mahomes throw an INT in September?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes -150<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No +110<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Mahomes has never thrown an INT during the month of September.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Will Chandler Jones break Michael Strahan&#8217;s sack record?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes +700<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No -2000<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Jones recorded 5 sacks in Week 1. Strahan&#8217;s record is 22.5. Odds imply 12.5% chance record is broken.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Will Trevor Lawrence break Peyton Manning&#8217;s rookie INT record<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes +1000<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No -4000<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Lawrence threw 3 INTs in Week 1, putting him on pace to throw 51 in 17 games. Manning&#8217;s record is 28 INTs. Odds imply 9.1% chance record is broken.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Will Trevor Lawrence lead the league in INTs?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes +500<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No -900<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Odds imply 16.7% chance Lawrence leads the league in INTs.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Trevor Lawrence total INTs during reg. season<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over 18.5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Under 18.5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Which player will start a game first?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Justin Fields -300<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trey Lance +200<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Who will have a higher QB rating at end of season?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jalen Hurts -140<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Carson Wentz +100<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><u>First Head Coach Fired<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Urban Meyer&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 7-2<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Matt Nagy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mike Zimmer&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 9-2<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Joe Judge&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 9-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vic Fangio&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 12-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kliff Kingsbury&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 14-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mike McCarthy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 14-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Zac Taylor&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 14-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Frank Reich&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 20-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dan Campbell&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 25-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jon Gruden&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 25-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mike Tomlin&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 25-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mike Vrabel&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 25-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ron Rivera&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 25-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>David Culley&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 28-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Matt Rhule&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 40-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sean Payton&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 40-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Arthur Smith&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 50-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>John Harbaugh&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 50-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Matt LaFleur&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 50-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Robert Saleh&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 50-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brian Flores&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 66-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kyle Shanahan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 66-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nick Sirianni&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 66-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pete Carroll&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 66-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brandon Staley&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 80-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sean McVay&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 80-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bill Belichick&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 100-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kevin Stefanski&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 100-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sean McDermott&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 100-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Andy Reid&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 200-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bruce Arians&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 200-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Joe Duffy of&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/\">OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a>&nbsp;is the Industry Standard. He already has a bunch of winners up for the weekend.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week 1 of the NFL regular season is in the books, but plenty of storylines emerged from the action on the field.&nbsp; SportsBetting&nbsp;&nbsp;has rolled out a host of prop bets to accompany some of the hottest topics circulating in the league. If you have any odds requests, please don&#8217;t hesitate to reach out. Will Patrick &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2021\/09\/nfl-prop-bets-take-major-advantage-of-oddsmaker-overreaction-now\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">NFL Prop Bets: Take Major Advantage of Oddsmaker Overreaction Now<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18612","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","hentry","category-uncategorized","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18612","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18612"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18612\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18613,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18612\/revisions\/18613"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18612"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18612"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18612"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}