{"id":18214,"date":"2020-12-17T20:47:42","date_gmt":"2020-12-18T01:47:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/?p=18214"},"modified":"2020-12-19T09:49:57","modified_gmt":"2020-12-19T14:49:57","slug":"2020-sports-bettors-who-stayed-the-course-now-thriving","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2020\/12\/2020-sports-bettors-who-stayed-the-course-now-thriving\/","title":{"rendered":"2020 Sports Bettors Who Stayed the Course Now Thriving"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery columns-0 is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\"><ul class=\"blocks-gallery-grid\"><\/ul><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>I was insanely thrilled to get sports back after the pandemic shutdown. As the adage goes, be be careful what you ask for, as the all-time outlier occurred. I went in my worst slump in 32 years as a handicapper and several years before that as a gambler. Write it up to being 2020? Yes-but nuanced. The devil is in the details.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/linetrackers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/mr-potter.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1130\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ve always affirmed that bookmakers and squares loathe uncertainty, but sharps exploit it. But that\u2019s because of the \u201cpredictable unpredictability\u201d of sports betting. But in unprecedented times, the unpredictability was\u2026unpredictable for once. The world being upended meant tested and confirmed regression to the mean and other models lacked the normal conditions to apply.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But why do the biggest slumps I\u2019ve ever had continually, and I do mean always and forever get followed by even greater winning streaks? Do I have a guardian angel? Nope. We stay the course. When squares profit short-term, the books know they will double-down on same techniques\u2014generally favorites and overs, though it is a little more complex than that. Books have to adjust, only strengthening the sharpest pro bettor angles in a freakish decline.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A great quote from It\u2019s a Wonderful Life \u201cPotter isn\u2019t selling. Potter\u2019s buying! And why? Because we\u2019re panicky and he\u2019s not. That\u2019s why.\u201d Not surprisingly, we have a lot more demonstrated winning systems favoring unders in NFL. If you are a long-term client, you\u2019ve cashed in for many years with us. The first four weeks of NFL 2020 saw all games over&nbsp;36-22-5 for greater than 62 percent. Books were saying both privately to me and in public articles, they can\u2019t keep getting parched by overs, so they shaded the lines. We didn\u2019t panic and after a 7-7 week 5, 56 percent of NFL games have gone under. That\u2019s not our bets, that\u2019s just overall in the league.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And our top systems have been hitting over 60 percent since markets righted themselves\u2014again. Just as they always do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Joeybagodonuts is still chasing his losses, forever hoping he can replicate the magic of the squares getting the big upper hand early. When we say the winning streaks always have outnumbered and outlasted the rare losing streaks, it\u2019s from decades of experience and wisdom as to why it happens.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The biggest lesson of 2020 for sports bettors is when you have proven metrics, you need to persevere. Don\u2019t jump off a ship that has scientifically proven it won\u2019t sink. You will only drown by leaping overboard.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ll bet Mr. Potter was a shrewd gambler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The author, Joe Duffy CEO of&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/\">OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a>&nbsp;is enjoying punishing the bookies for getting a rare upper hand in the early weeks of football. So are the other services on said site, LateInfo topping the list.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I was insanely thrilled to get sports back after the pandemic shutdown. As the adage goes, be be careful what you ask for, as the all-time outlier occurred. I went in my worst slump in 32 years as a handicapper and several years before that as a gambler. Write it up to being 2020? Yes-but &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2020\/12\/2020-sports-bettors-who-stayed-the-course-now-thriving\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">2020 Sports Bettors Who Stayed the Course Now Thriving<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","hentry","category-uncategorized","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18214"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18214\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18219,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18214\/revisions\/18219"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}