{"id":17142,"date":"2020-07-13T22:19:46","date_gmt":"2020-07-14T03:19:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/?p=17142"},"modified":"2020-07-13T22:28:44","modified_gmt":"2020-07-14T03:28:44","slug":"mlb-betting-baseball-expert-previews-nl-mvp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2020\/07\/mlb-betting-baseball-expert-previews-nl-mvp\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB Betting: Baseball Expert Previews NL MVP"},"content":{"rendered":"

Baseball expert Jordan Duffy, a fantasy MLB expert, previews the NL MVP in his debut article. Odds are at MyBookie<\/a>\u00a0and Bovada<\/a><\/p>\n

With a 60-game season, \u200bmany things become much more of a crapshoot. \u200b \u200bThe NL MVP was already going to be tricky to predict prior to COVID-19. Will an established, perennial all-star like Betts or Yelich win? Could Bellinger repeat his 2019? Or will a young phenom like Acu\u00f1a or Soto rise above the competition?<\/p>\n

With the small sample size of 60 games, what would normally be an \u200binsignificant \u200bhot\/cold streak could be the difference between winning the MVP and not even being in the conversation.<\/p>\n

My pick<\/p>\n

Christian Yelich +700<\/a><\/p>\n

I know what you are probably thinking: did you forget that Mookie Betts was traded to the Dodgers? No, I did not. \u200bMookie Betts is the overwhelming favorite to win MVP after leaving Mike Trout\u2019s shadow in the American League, but I decided to go with a bolder decision in Christian Yelich.<\/p>\n

I went with Yelich as he is the superior offensive player, while Betts is more well-rounded. Although voters have become a lot better about considering every aspect of the game in recent years, defensive statistics are notoriously volatile and in a shortened season, voters will likely put a larger emphasis on offense.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no question that Yelich is the real deal. Following his 2018 MVP campaign, Yelich put up another MVP caliber season in 2019 (and he likely would have repeated had a broken kneecap not cut his season short). His peripherals also have supported the results: 99th percentile for xwOBA and xSLG, and 98th percentile for xAVG and Exit Velocity, according to Statcast.<\/p>\n

Honorable Mention:<\/strong> Mookie Betts (duh)<\/p>\n

Big name \u200bto be avoid:<\/strong> Cody Bellinger<\/p>\n

Cody Bellinger is coming off a huge year, \u200bwhich goes without saying considering he is the reigning MVP. Having just turned 25, he looks very appealing at first glance; however, his stats were heavily inflated by a very hot start.<\/p>\n

Bellinger finished 2019 with 7.8 fWAR\u2014tied with Yelich for the NL best\u2014but 3.8 (~49%) of it came during his first 46 games. That was 1.0 fWAR ahead of Yelich, who ranked second at the time.<\/p>\n

In his remaining 110 games, he played much more like the Cody Bellinger we had seen in previous years. Although still very good, it\u2019s not MVP material. He put up 4.0 fWAR\u2014which was good for 18th in the MLB and 9th in the NL in that timespan. He slashed .263\/.373\/.562 for a wRC+ of 136.<\/p>\n

Those numbers closely reflect his career numbers prior to 2019: \u200b.263\/.347\/.522 and a wRC+ of 128.<\/p>\n

Get the best picks this MLB season from Joe Duffy at OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a> \u00a0