In my handicapping infancy in the late 80s, the Dutchman (recall that bloke scorephone junkies?) was doling out copies of some advice column along the lines of Golden Rules of Handicapping. I can\u2019t even recollect most of the provisions, but do recall they ranged from the obvious like, \u201cBet with your head, not your heart,\u201d to the total bullshit, \u201cOnly wager on an underdog to cover if you think they will win outright.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n
All the other theorems were fairly unmemorable. I can\u2019t \u201ccredit\u201d the author, because I\u2019m not sure who it was. But yeah, stuff did go viral back then, but before high tech took over the world, it was a 15th<\/sup> generation photocopied note. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Lost in the prudent, yet blatantly evident \u201cnot betting with your heart\u201d is a more significant reality: don\u2019t gamble with your broken heart. I\u2019m shocked at how often I hear something along the lines of, \u201cI refuse to bet on any game involving the Detroit Lions. Each time I bet on them whether for or against, I get it wrong. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Though I haven\u2019t done a scientific inquisition, the ensuing soliloquy generally reveals a very small sample size. Further conversations reveals a common pattern is that they bet on them to repeat the performance of the last time they wagered for or against them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThey lost outright as a 10-point favorite. Next time, I bet against them as an underdog and they won by 20 points,\u201d is a familiar sounding shrieking of annoyance. The fact that sharps bet on capricious teams to be unpredictable notwithstanding, it\u2019s a knee-jerk reflex to eliminate possibilities based on short-term heartache. <\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s as preposterous as swearing off unders because a few tormenting setbacks. Most of us have been there, but only squares abandon the ship. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Perhaps the is a legitimate reason someone has a bad read on a team. If so, assess and determine why. Make alterations accordingly. But if you are basing your next bet on how a certain team performed the last time you place a bet on them\u2014the only bad read you have is on how handicapping works. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The author Joe Duffy is CEO of\u00a0OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a>.\u00a0He\u2019s been dominating handicapping publicly since the 1980s scorephone days. With all the time off during coronavirus, he both added to his systems arsenal and started the\u00a0dad jokes<\/a> YouTube channel\u00a0Hey Abby D with his daughter. The first video is below.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n