{"id":16990,"date":"2020-03-26T13:14:22","date_gmt":"2020-03-26T18:14:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/?p=16990"},"modified":"2020-03-26T13:14:24","modified_gmt":"2020-03-26T18:14:24","slug":"pro-gamblers-think-the-opposite-of-square-gamblers-jaw-dropping-examples","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2020\/03\/pro-gamblers-think-the-opposite-of-square-gamblers-jaw-dropping-examples\/","title":{"rendered":"Pro Gamblers Think the Opposite of Square Gamblers; Jaw-Dropping Examples"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Most successful systems fit under umbrella of \u201ccounterintuitive.\u201d Here are show notes from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy\u2019s latest sports betting tutorial. Trapped inside while under quarantine? Check out\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2020\/03\/betonline-offers-stunning-poker-blackjack-bonuses-and-more\/\">what this vetted sportsbook has going<\/a>. Hint: a lot of money to be won!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Counterintuitive Reasoning In Gambling\" width=\"474\" height=\"267\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/dLgyMM1z7W8?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>If hotter and better teams were the teams that covered most, no bookies would be around<\/li><li>Always regression to mean<\/li><li>Best teams would generally have to play better to cover<\/li><li>Worst teams would generally have to play even worse<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Know exceptions<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>NBA totals, especially recent years with rules having scores skyrocketing<ul><li>Most top over systems with high totals<\/li><li>Most to under systems with low totals<\/li><\/ul><\/li><li>Reasonable explanation as inflated scores have bettors<ul><li>Terrified of low totals under<\/li><li>Even over players get sticker shock at 240<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Conclusion<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>In sports handicapping \u201ctrusting instincts is bad\u201d<ul><li>Oddsmakers know what common beliefs are<\/li><\/ul><\/li><li>Toughest bets to root for are generally better bets<ul><li>Colder, inferior teams<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Joe Duffy is a predictive sports modeling pioneer and still the best. His bets are at&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/offshoreinsiders.com\/\">OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Most successful systems fit under umbrella of \u201ccounterintuitive.\u201d Here are show notes from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy\u2019s latest sports betting tutorial. Trapped inside while under quarantine? Check out\u00a0what this vetted sportsbook has going. Hint: a lot of money to be won! If hotter and better teams were the teams that covered most, no bookies &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2020\/03\/pro-gamblers-think-the-opposite-of-square-gamblers-jaw-dropping-examples\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Pro Gamblers Think the Opposite of Square Gamblers; Jaw-Dropping Examples<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2111,2110,2109],"class_list":["post-16990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-critical-betting-tips","tag-how-to-pro-gamblers-pick-games","tag-pro-betting-tips"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16990"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16990\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16991,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16990\/revisions\/16991"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}