{"id":16427,"date":"2019-10-04T14:16:09","date_gmt":"2019-10-04T19:16:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/?p=16427"},"modified":"2019-10-04T15:11:02","modified_gmt":"2019-10-04T20:11:02","slug":"college-football-sharp-report-includes-sweat-barometer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2019\/10\/college-football-sharp-report-includes-sweat-barometer\/","title":{"rendered":"College Football Sharp Report Includes Sweat Barometer"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n<p>College football sharp report for week 6 college football heading into Friday night football games. Suffice to say, bettors adoring road favorites even more than usual this week. Even the games that fell short of our criterion were also road teams laying the lumber.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Maryland, Memphis, Boise State, North Carolina<\/p>\n<p>Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Air Force, Stanford, Memphis, Penn State, Maryland<\/p>\n<p>Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Stanford, Georgia State, Pittsburgh<\/p>\n<p>Please keep in mind that these line moves include preseason lines posted by sportsbooks. It is a tool to measure overreaction.<\/p>\n<p>Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Penn State -11 now -28.5 to Purdue; Michigan opened -13 to Iowa but now just -3.5; Florida -6 to Auburn now +2.5; Miami -6 to Virginia Tech now -14.<\/p>\n<p>Top expert pick on today\u2019s card is from Joe Duffy with 15 college and NFL Wise Guys up\u00a0Saturday-Monday and more coming.\u00a0Big Ten East Total of the Year and NFC Divisional Total of the Year\u00a0among them.\u00a0<em>33-16 NFL since preseason is the Grandmaster. <\/em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/index.php?Page=Packages\">Get the picks now<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, \u201covers\u201d are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. These are the best teams to bet on<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Team<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>ATS Record<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>ATS Margin<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Ohio State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>4-1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>20.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Penn State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>3-1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>18.2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Wisconsin<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>3-1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>17.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\">\n<p>UL Lafayette 5-0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>14.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>SMU<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>5-0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>14<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>These are the best teams to bet against year-to-date. <a href=\"http:\/\/record.webpartners.co\/_HMpGcY-4ZyOU9J4xpxpxGmNd7ZgqdRLk\/1\/\">MYBookie<\/a>\u00a0has up to a $1,000 bonus with initial deposit.<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Team<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>ATS Record<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>ATS Margin<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>VA Tech<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>0-4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-20.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Neveda<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>2-3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-17.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Akron<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>0-5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-13.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Bowling Green<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>1-3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-13.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>UMass<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>1-4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-11.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Florida International<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>0-4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-11.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week we add sweat barometer, AKA margin of cover to the sharp report. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1903,1900,1902,1901],"class_list":["post-16427","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-college-football-super-sharp-report","tag-college-football-sweat-barometer","tag-joe-duffys-sharp-report","tag-sharp-report-joe-duffy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16427","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16427"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16427\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16429,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16427\/revisions\/16429"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16427"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16427"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16427"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}