{"id":14912,"date":"2018-10-21T08:48:42","date_gmt":"2018-10-21T13:48:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/?p=14912"},"modified":"2018-10-21T08:48:42","modified_gmt":"2018-10-21T13:48:42","slug":"free-sports-pick-nfl-pros-vs-joes-biggest-line-moves-vegas-sportsbook-liabilities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2018\/10\/free-sports-pick-nfl-pros-vs-joes-biggest-line-moves-vegas-sportsbook-liabilities\/","title":{"rendered":"Free Sports Pick, NFL Pros vs. Joes, Biggest Line Moves Vegas, Sportsbook Liabilities"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Super sharp intel for week 7 NFL. Strongest service pick: I am the best. That is the No. 1 reason why I win more than everyone else. But I also don\u2019t force bets. Some Sundays I\u2019ve had nine and 10 picks. Today, there are\u00a0<strong>three NFL winners\u00a0<\/strong>that rise to the level of premium pick. It is led by a Wise Guy. I am\u00a0<em>53-23 in football.\u00a0<\/em>Brutal loser on Army OVER but still 6-4 yesterday. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/index.php?Page=Packages\">Get the picks now<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Kansas City, New England, Minnesota; Detroit OVER, Carolina OVER, Cleveland OVER<\/p>\n<p>Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Minnesota, Baltimore, Indianapolis; Cleveland OVER, San Francisco OVER,<\/p>\n<p>Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Baltimore; Kansas City UNDER, NY Jets UNDER, Cleveland OVER<\/p>\n<p>Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Dallas -2 but now +1<\/p>\n<p>Best teams to bet on in terms of margin of cover (against the spread record followed by margin): Baltimore 4-2 by +10.2, Kansas City 6-0 by +7<\/p>\n<p>Best teams to bet against in terms of margin of cover (against the spread record followed by margin): Arizona 3-3 by -8.2, Oakland 2-4 by -7.5<\/p>\n<p>Biggest over teams (over-under record followed by margin; number of OVERS listed first): New Orleans 3-2 by +12.4, Kansas City 4-2 by 12.2, Tampa 5-0 by +11.8, Atlanta 5-1 by +8.2<\/p>\n<p>Biggest under teams: (over-under record followed by margin; number of UNDERS listed first): Tennessee 4-2 -8.8, Baltimore 5-2 -6.2<\/p>\n<p>Free pick from Joe Duffy, CEO of <a href=\"http:\/\/offshoreinsiders.com\/\">OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>DETROIT -3 Miami<\/p>\n<p>Road favorites off bye 63-29. Go with teams in a nice stretch of not turning ball over is 160-106. Two anti-splits angles: one is 147-99 another 126-82. Again anti-splits is when home\/road records suggest home team should be favorite but it not or is not as big of a favorite as splits imply.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Super sharp intel for week 7 NFL. Strongest service pick: I am the best. That is the No. 1 reason why I win more than everyone else. But I also don\u2019t force bets. Some Sundays I\u2019ve had nine and 10 picks. Today, there are\u00a0three NFL winners\u00a0that rise to the level of premium pick. It is &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2018\/10\/free-sports-pick-nfl-pros-vs-joes-biggest-line-moves-vegas-sportsbook-liabilities\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Free Sports Pick, NFL Pros vs. Joes, Biggest Line Moves Vegas, Sportsbook Liabilities<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1254,1253,1252,1251],"class_list":["post-14912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-free-pick-nfl","tag-inside-info-bettors","tag-offshore-sportsbook-consensus","tag-pros-against-the-joes-nfl"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14912","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14912"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14912\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14913,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14912\/revisions\/14913"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14912"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14912"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14912"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}