The Washington Redskins and the Indianapolis Colts kick
\noff the 2008-09 football betting season (official
\nhandicapping preview<\/a>). Sports
\nbetting<\/a> offers are rare opportunity for likely dividends during a tough
\neconomic period. Gamblers do their own version of \u201coffshore drilling\u201d. <\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n

The great Emmitt Smith did a commercial in which he said
\nthat championships are won in the preseason.
\n<\/span>Of course I found it ironic that in said year he missed the entire
\npreseason and the first two games of the regular schedule before leading Dallas<\/st1:place><\/st1:City>
\nto the Super Bowl. <\/span>But I digress. The
\nthrust is that handicappers have a whole heap to win in the preseason as well.<\/p>\n

I am exceedingly sure that you have heard it and
\npercentages say that you have uttered it as well. When I first began
\nhandicapping I espoused the costly naivety too.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

The fallacy is that nobody in their right mind would try
\nto foretell preseason battles. <\/span>The
\nbelief is that there are too many unknown factors to consider, too many
\nnameless and faceless Division II players on each side of the ball who will be
\ngetting their only taste of the show for a few plays or series of downs. <\/p>\n

True the argument behind this deduction is certainly based
\non fact, but the conclusion in not only untrue, but very much the
\ncontrary. <\/span><\/p>\n

The reality is that smart players realize that such
\nmentioned disadvantages actually apply to the oddsmaker and not the
\ngambler. <\/span>With the proliferation of
\noffshore sportsbooks and the competitiveness leading to sportsbooks posting
\nadvanced lines earlier and earlier, the advantage continues to swing more and
\nmore towards the player, well at least to the wise player. <\/span><\/p>\n

Preseason lines<\/a>
\nare made now a week in advance. <\/span>After
\nthe first week, so often once both opponents have completed their preceding
\ncontest, a line is posted as rapidly as possible for the upcoming week.<\/p>\n

The truthfulness is that the linesmakers have to deal with
\na lot more uncertainty that the bettor does.
\n<\/span>Of course lines do adjust\u2014sometimes over adjust based on this
\ninformation and the public responding to it, but the sportsbooks are still
\nlimited in exactly how much they can move the lines or they would get destroyed
\nby line shoppers and \u201cmiddle\u201d players.
\n<\/span>\u201cBette Middlers\u201d is what my cohort OC Dooley likes to call them.<\/p>\n

Hometown newspapers are a Godsend for handicapping preseason
\nfootball. <\/span>Rarely is there a game in
\nwhich coaches will not give out accurate information on quarterback and key
\nplayer rotations as well as injuries. <\/span>It
\nis not remotely uncommon to find out because of injuries and other reasons that
\na team for example may be without four of their top six offensive linemen or
\nmany analogous situations. <\/span><\/p>\n

As a general rule of thumb both offensive and defensive
\nschemes are pretty vanilla in the exhibition games (apologies to the late Mr.
\nRozelle, that\u2019s what they are). <\/span>But yet
\nwhen teams have a new head coach or new coordinator or a lot of new players
\nprojected to play key positions often coaches will throw in more stunts,
\nblitzes, etc.<\/p>\n

But because the purpose is for the players to learn a
\nsystem and not to catch their opponent off-guard, such game plan is almost
\nnever kept secret. <\/span>However rarely in
\npreseason do coaches actually prepare for their opponent. Thus when research
\nuncovers that one team is working on some more sophisticated packages, while
\nthe opponent <\/span>is going to keep it
\nstraightforward, the big plus goes to team planning on mixing it up.<\/p>\n

There are eternal issues that affects how critically each
\nteam approaches a particular preseason game, such as new systems on both or
\neither side of the ball, the number of established veterans on each team who
\nwill only play some token downs merely for timing and getting in shape, the
\nnumber of positions and roster spots up for grabs, individual coaches
\nphilosophies on how to approach a preseason game. <\/span>The inventory really never ends.<\/p>\n

But so often the coaches and key players own comments will
\ngive strong insight into whether or not there is an enormous dichotomy in how
\neach team is approaching a forthcoming game.
\n<\/span>Inevitably a coach especially one of a young or perennially losing team
\nwill flat out state something to the effect, \u201cWe need to instill a winning
\nattitude and habit early. <\/span>We want to
\nenter the regular season with some wins under our belt.\u201d <\/span>Not-so-uncommon annotations like that set off
\nsirens at GodsTips, anchor of <\/span>OffshoreInsiders.com<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/b> <\/span> <\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n

The Dallas Cowboys for years were one of the great
\npreseason go-against plays, especially during the \u201cTriplets\u201d era of Irvin,
\nSmith and Aikman because most of the key starting positions were already etched
\nin stone. <\/span>Whether or not Jimmy Johnson
\nor Barry Switzer was the coach, the Cowboys played future Arena Football
\nplayers using the most basic schemes. <\/span><\/p>\n

Read those newspapers and you will find that on any given
\npreseason weekend, there will be several matchups in which one team will be
\nplay key members longer than their opponent or that one team because of
\ninjuries and precautions will be much more shorthanded at kickoff than their
\nfoe. <\/p>\n

It is always important to keep a close eye on teams whose
\nfirst and second string players were on one side of a dominating
\nperformance. <\/span>So often such will effect
\nhow much work the key players will get the following week. <\/span>If a veteran first unit outscored their foe
\n14-0 one week, there is a good chance that they be given little work the next
\nweek. <\/span>But do not assume this to be the
\ncase. <\/span>Hometown newspapers leave little
\nto speculation by printing coaches\u2019 answers to the obvious questions. <\/span><\/p>\n

It is a pretty good general rule of thumb that teams off
\nof humiliating losses will come out with vengeance the following week. <\/span>But there is a reason that I qualified such
\nstatement with \u201cpretty good\u201d and \u201cgeneral\u201d.
\n<\/span>Final scores can be deceptive in any and all sports but such is the case
\neven more so in preseason football.<\/p>\n

If a team loses 28-7 but the first and second teams were
\noutscored 21-0, while the mop-up guys played evenly, it is a huge difference
\nthan if it were visa versa. <\/span>The third
\nand fourth stringers if totally outplayed are digging ditches and contacting
\nthe Barcelona Dragons. <\/span>But if it were
\nthe primary players who were humiliated, they are the ones who have a fire lit
\nunder them. <\/span><\/p>\n

It is much more important to look at how the respective
\ntop two units played than the actual final score. <\/span>However one must very much take into account
\nall the extenuating factors involved entering the game, as illustrated
\nabove. <\/span>Perhaps a teams top two units
\nwere shorthanded against an opponent who used complicated schemes breaking in
\nnew systems. <\/span>But I do love betting on
\nteams whose first and second units got a good ole fashioned no-excuses butt
\nwhipping to rebound accordingly. <\/p>\n

One has to though find that fine line between going with
\nall of the above factors and being mindful of line moves. This is particularly
\nso with the public jumping on the same side that you are.<\/p>\n

I honestly can not give a definitive scientific
\nexplanation of exactly how my handicapping has been complimented so well by
\nline moves, other than to know that it defies any laws of probability. But
\nsomewhere there is a congruency amongst my handicapping techniques, the opening
\nline and public perception that affects the line moves.<\/p>\n

I can with full honesty say that in preseason just as I do
\nduring the regular season; I win a lot more than I lose. <\/span>However so many times if early in the week I
\npencil side A as a play only to have the public bet side A so much that the
\nline moves enough to scare me off of the game, only to have side B cover both
\nends of the line move. <\/span>Somehow there is
\na complimentary congruency in my handicapping that increases my winning
\npercentage even further. <\/span><\/p>\n

But all factors equal, I very much like going against
\npreseason line moves of 2\u2019<\/st1:metricconverter>
\nor more points. When those moves are not justified by the factors outlined
\nabout, I often make selections based about 85% on unjustified line, moves. <\/span>But line moves that I deem justified more
\ntimes than not results in a no-play.<\/p>\n

The modus operandi that applies in the regular season and
\npostseason handicapping are completely different than that of the preseason. <\/span>Once a talented handicapper realizes that, he
\nhas taken first step towards a nice regular season bankroll. But after that, it
\nstill takes research, research, research\u2026<\/p>\n

How much money do you want to make this football season?
\nFor 95 percent of you, the difference between making a fortune and losing your
\nshirt is getting picks from the top football sports betting service of all-time
\nGodsTips and the premier totals handicapper Stevie Vincent. Both handicappers
\nhave full-season football packages up now. Click now to
\npurchase<\/a> or for those new to professional sports betting, here is more
\ninformation<\/a> to help begin the rest of your gambling life. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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