Each and every season all sports should be a learning
\nexperience in sports betting. We always reflect and critique ourselves,
\nevaluate what changes have been made by the oddsmakers and how the alterations
\nin the sports landscape affect handicapping. <\/p>\n

High on the list of strategy refinements this football
\nseason was the realization that I found a football handicapping Holy Grail
\nabout a quarter of a century ago yet let it slip through my fingertips. <\/p>\n

In the pre-Internet days, one of my top sources for data was
\nthe Sports and Gaming Newswire, one of Jim Feist\u2019s companies. I believe that
\nwas the first time I encountered the yards per point statistic. <\/p>\n

On offense it is calculated by yards gained divided by
\npoints scored. On defense, it\u2019s<\/span> yards allowed divided
\nby points given up. The theory is it measures efficiency on both sides of the
\nball. <\/p>\n

A low number on offense is good, meaning a team does not
\nwaste yardage or \u201cleave points on the field\u201d so to speak. <\/p>\n

A high number on defense is good, meaning a lot of successful
\ndefensive stands. <\/span>However, conventional
\nthinking (handicapping\u2019s ultimate oxymoron) would say bet on the efficient
\nteams and against the inefficient. <\/p>\n

The stat proved not only worthless, but if anything one
\nwould be better off fading the stat. Little did I know how true the latter was
\nand how consistent it has been with so many other improvements and refinements
\nI\u2019ve made in my handicapping over the decades. <\/p>\n

We\u2019ve written many articles on how we measure the accuracy
\nand validity of a team\u2019s performance. We don\u2019t have the time and space to go
\nover every detail but in short, we use net yardage record (a team that gets
\nmore yards \u201cwins\u201d) where others use straight up won-loss record. We use net
\nyards per game comparisons where the squares employ points per game. <\/p>\n

Others \u201crank\u201d teams by total yards per game in passing,
\nrushing and overall both offensively and defensively. In lieu of that, we use
\nthe more reliable yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per play relative to
\nthe cumulative average of their opponents to date. <\/p>\n

For elaboration, visit the archived sports betting
\nstrategy articles at OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a><\/span><\/b>,
\nbut our supposition is that these stats demonstrate which teams outplay or
\nunderplay their stats and hence, which teams have the biggest upside and which
\nhave the biggest downside. Insert the terms overvalued and undervalued. <\/p>\n

Remember, a team\u2019s Vegas\/offshore value is most affected
\nby their performance. But the teams that have the best, yes we said best yards
\nper point stats are teams that are going to be overvalued and teams with the
\nworst undervalued. <\/p>\n

Why? The most efficient teams can only improve by
\nmaintaining the high bar they have set for themselves while increasing actual
\nproduction.<\/p>\n

The squads that, for example, waste offensive yardage by
\nnot converting them into points (bad yards per point rating) have demonstrated
\nthey are capable of more than their bottom line production has shown.<\/p>\n

There is little debate that poor efficiency is more correctable
\nthan poor production. Remember, it\u2019s not like one can retroactively bet stats.
\nThe more efficient teams will have the best spread records to date for the most
\npart. As gamblers, we want to know beforehand which teams will have a reversal
\nof fortune\u2014literally. <\/p>\n

This past season, we beta tested (tracked but did not bet)
\nthe theory. Voila. Yes, the teams that were wasting yards did have the biggest
\nupside and the least wasteful teams did have the bigger downside. Essentially,
\nit proved to be a great a great way to \u201cbuy low and sell high\u201d and apply it to
\nhandicapping.<\/p>\n

Best of all, the more the previously referenced stats: net
\nyardage, yards per rush\/pass\/play and yards per point theories corroborated
\neach other, not surprisingly, the stronger the play. If the data contradicted, of
\ncourse it meant there was no statistical angle to exploit. <\/p>\n

The beta testing is done. We are greatly looking forward
\nto next football season. <\/span><\/p>\n

No need to wait until next football season to bet on
\nsports. The author, Joe Duffy makes his picks on GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a>.<\/span><\/b> <\/span>With March Madness betting around the corner,
\nnote that Duffy\u2019s prowess and work ethic has earned him the monikers of Mr.
\nMarch and the Lord of the Dance. <\/o:p><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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