{"id":1356,"date":"2007-11-14T15:24:55","date_gmt":"2007-11-14T20:24:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/11\/controversies-and-scandals-have-lessons-in-handicapping\/"},"modified":"2007-11-14T15:24:55","modified_gmt":"2007-11-14T20:24:55","slug":"controversies-and-scandals-have-lessons-in-handicapping","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/11\/controversies-and-scandals-have-lessons-in-handicapping\/","title":{"rendered":"Controversies and Scandals Have Lessons in Handicapping"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='tab-interval:.5in'><\/p>\n<div class=Section1>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Recently sports have seen minor controversies to major<br \/>\nscandals that all have direct or indirect handicapping lessons. In short, they<br \/>\ncan be summed up in what we preach time and time again. <span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'> <\/span>The key to successful sports betting is<br \/>\ngetting an edge as often as possible.<\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>This is exactly why coaches are notoriously secretive<br \/>\nabout the injury status of key players and also why we sports bettors exercise<br \/>\nevery source to get the accurate lowdown.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Coaches believe the more he knows about the injury status<br \/>\nof his and his opponent\u2019s key players, the more of an edge his team will get.<br \/>\nIt\u2019s the same way with gamblers against their sportsbook opponent.<\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>It\u2019s precisely the reason the now infamous scandals of<br \/>\ndisgraced NBA referee Tim Donaghy and likely soon-to-be former Texas <span\nclass=GramE>A&amp;M<\/span> football coach Dennis Franchione are so significant.<br \/>\nInvesting is sports scores is much like Wall Street betting. \u201cInside<br \/>\ninformation\u201d that coaches and refs have access to is the sports broker\u2019s<br \/>\nversion of insider trading. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>So is the lesson for the sports gambler that if we don\u2019t<br \/>\nget the state\u2019s evidence directly from a coach or referee that we are out of<br \/>\nluck? The answer is absolutely not. \u201cInside\u201d information is far from the only<br \/>\nway to get the upper hand on betting the odds. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>A lot of valuable insight is out there. Just because<br \/>\ninformation is public does not mean it\u2019s widely circulated. <span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'> <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>So often the keenest intelligence comes to light after the<br \/>\nodds have been posted, often somewhat limiting how sportsbooks can act in<br \/>\nresponse. We\u2019ve long touted Google News as our favorite aggregator of sports<br \/>\nbetting information such as injuries, expert analysis on how teams match up,<br \/>\nmotivation recognition and other very useful bullet points. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>However, Topix and ESPN have also teamed up to try to<br \/>\ncompete with Google News. Replacing their \u201cSitelines\u201d section, ESPN has<br \/>\npartnered with Topix to create \u201cESPN local\u201d. This new feature aggregates<br \/>\narticles of interest to the sports fan and gambler. That being said, Google<br \/>\nNews still reigns supreme, but the ESPN\/Topix synergy has potential for the<br \/>\nhandicapper. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>We move on to a minor controversy, but certainly an<br \/>\nexample of a coach pulling out all the stops to get the leg up on the<br \/>\ncompetition or more accurately to counter the eminence of their foe. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText><st1:country-region><st1:place>Georgia<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region><br \/>\nfinally ended <st1:State><st1:place>Florida<\/st1:place><\/st1:State>\u2019s series<br \/>\ndomination in college football. In said game, the Bulldogs had a choreographed<br \/>\nexcessive celebration penalty after their first touchdown. Head coach Mark<br \/>\nRicht admitted he told the team, \u201cI expect you guys to celebrate to the point<br \/>\nwhere the official will throw a flag for excessive celebration.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Richt said his instructions were intended to fire up his<br \/>\nteam because he felt they needed to play with more passion. He did not<br \/>\nspecifically verify, but we strongly suspect that the fact that <st1:State><st1:place>Florida<\/st1:place><\/st1:State><br \/>\nhad won 15 of the previous 17 meetings was motivational factor No. 1. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>The handicapping ramifications are to never underestimate<br \/>\nthe importance of emotion and the psychology of sports. Of course most players<br \/>\non both <st1:State><st1:place>Florida<\/st1:place><\/st1:State> and <st1:country-region><st1:place>Georgia<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region><br \/>\nwere being potty trained when the domination started. Each team has gone<br \/>\nthrough several coaching changes during the era. Despite all that, clearly<br \/>\nRicht knew that a well publicized one-sided rivalry leads to swagger from one<br \/>\nteam and a \u201cculture of losing\u201d from the other. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Sports bettors should not completely disregard historical<br \/>\ndata even if the period precedes every player and coach who will affect that<br \/>\noutcome of the game being handicapped. I honestly believe if <st1:country-region><st1:place>Georgia<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region><br \/>\nhad the 15-2 series edge, Richt would never have felt the need to manufacture boastfulness<br \/>\nand confidence. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Then there was the short-lived, though periodic<br \/>\nspeculation about the Indianapolis Colts piping in crowd noise during home<br \/>\ngames. For our purposes, the veracity of these accusations is not as relevant<br \/>\nas the fact that there is a reason why opponents care if the Colts are bending<br \/>\nrules. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Again, crowd noise can give a home team\u2014we will say it<br \/>\nagain\u2014\u201cthe edge\u201d. Few coaches or players will dispute the affect of the \u201c12<sup>th<\/sup><br \/>\nman\u201d in football or the \u201c6<sup>th<\/sup> man\u201d in basketball. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>This is why we love it when we read that a team has for<br \/>\nexample \u201conly the third sellout in two years\u201d or that the small town mayor held<br \/>\na <st1:time Hour=\"12\" Minute=\"0\">noon<\/st1:time> pep rally the day of a big<br \/>\ngame. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Not that a game or pointspread is necessarily going to be<br \/>\naffected by a pep rally, but such seemingly innocuous events are symptoms of<br \/>\nhow significant a specific game is and how passionate the hometown crowd is going<br \/>\nto be. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>In college, we always keep an eye out for when the<br \/>\nnon-elite college basketball teams are playing home games while the student<br \/>\nbody is on winter break. The level of home court and home field advantage is<br \/>\nfluid and will vary game-to-game, especially with lower profile schools where<br \/>\nsellouts are far from a given. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>What the average gambler takes for granted, the sharp<br \/>\nplayer yearns for. No edge is too banal for smart money players. Best of all, one<br \/>\nneed not always have access to a private booster newsletter or collude with a<br \/>\nrogue official. So often the most indispensable information to the gambler can<br \/>\nbe in the fourth paragraph of a squad\u2019s hometown newspaper or within the official<br \/>\nteam press release. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Joe Duffy\u2019s sports betting selections are at <a\nhref=\"http:\/\/www.godstips.com\/\">www.GodsTips.com<\/a><span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>   <\/span>He is former General Manager of the<br \/>\nFreescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:\nnormal'><span style='color:blue'><a href=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/\">OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a>,<br \/>\n<\/span><\/b>the premier hub of world-class handicappers and free sports betting<br \/>\ninformation. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/body><br \/>\n<\/html><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recently sports have seen minor controversies to major scandals that all have direct or indirect handicapping lessons. In short, they can be summed up in what we preach time and time again. The key to successful sports betting is getting an edge as often as possible. This is exactly why coaches are notoriously secretive about &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/11\/controversies-and-scandals-have-lessons-in-handicapping\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Controversies and Scandals Have Lessons in Handicapping<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[186,187,69,48,37],"class_list":["post-1356","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sports_gambling_strategy_articles","tag-dennis-franchione","tag-mark-richct","tag-sports-betting","tag-sports-handicapping","tag-tim-donaghy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1356","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1356"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1356\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1356"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1356"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1356"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}