{"id":1354,"date":"2007-10-29T11:30:22","date_gmt":"2007-10-29T16:30:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/10\/early-season-nba-betting-crib-sheet\/"},"modified":"2007-10-29T11:30:22","modified_gmt":"2007-10-29T16:30:22","slug":"early-season-nba-betting-crib-sheet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/10\/early-season-nba-betting-crib-sheet\/","title":{"rendered":"Early Season NBA Betting Crib Sheet"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='tab-interval:.5in'><\/p>\n<div class=Section1>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>As is the case in all sports, everyone and their sister<br \/>\nare doing NBA season previews. This is very much true even with those in the<br \/>\nhandicapping industry. From a spread bettor\u2019s standpoint, these forecasts can<br \/>\nhave little value. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>As we point out similar examples in every sport, <st1:City><st1:place>San<br \/>\nAntonio<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> could have the best record in the NBA and <st1:City><st1:place>Atlanta<\/st1:place><\/st1:City><br \/>\ncould have the worst.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>Yet it\u2019s still<br \/>\nconceivable that the Hawks could have a better spread record. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Being right about projected divisional standings assures<br \/>\nlittle in spread betting.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>Just imagine<br \/>\nthe gambling bloodbath when such predictions are wrong. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>This year\u2019s NFL is an aberration where the two of the<br \/>\nthree teams widely considered being the best in the NFL before the year<br \/>\nstarted\u2014<st1:City><st1:place>Indianapolis<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> and <st1:place>New<br \/>\nEngland<\/st1:place>\u2014also have great spread records. How quickly we forget the<br \/>\nChargers were among the big three preseason favorites, though we know they will<br \/>\nbe heard from. But let us get back to the NBA. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Elite handicappers look for fluid tendencies rather than<br \/>\nhandicapping an entire season before it starts. This is a big reason why we<br \/>\nminimize futures bets and even playoff series bets, to eliminate the danger of<br \/>\nbeing even subconsciously biased in our day to day soothsaying. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>At <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span\nstyle='color:blue'><a href=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/\">OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a>,<br \/>\n<\/span><\/b>we compile pages of notes for our betting \u201ccheat sheets\u201d on every<br \/>\nteam, updated daily. So here are some highlights of early tendencies we are<br \/>\nlooking for in our every day NBA handicapping:<o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<h1><st1:place><st1:PlaceName><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Golden<\/span><\/st1:PlaceName><span\nstyle='font-size:12.0pt'> <\/span><st1:PlaceType><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>State<\/span><\/st1:PlaceType><\/st1:place><span\nstyle='font-size:12.0pt'>: \u201cPredictably Unpredictable\u201d<o:p><\/o:p><\/span><\/h1>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>One of our many Golden Rules of sports handicapping is<br \/>\nthat square players avoid erratic teams, sharp players love them. In short, the<br \/>\nangle is that we bet against such teams the hotter and bigger favorite they are<br \/>\nand wager on them the colder and bigger underdog they become.<o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Yes, professional gamblers know there are many situations<br \/>\nto go with horrible, slumping teams and go against elite teams during their<br \/>\nwinning streak. Why will the Warriors be a team squares hate and sharpies love?<br \/>\n<o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Well, yet another Golden Rule that has made you and us a<br \/>\nfortune this college football season: it\u2019s easier to be the hunter than the<br \/>\nhunted. <st1:place><st1:PlaceName>Golden<\/st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType>State<\/st1:PlaceType><\/st1:place><br \/>\nenters the year as a chic team fresh off a 16-5 straight up run to close out<br \/>\nthe regular season, followed by the historic upset of <st1:City><st1:place>Dallas<\/st1:place><\/st1:City>.<br \/>\n<o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText><st1:place><st1:PlaceName>Golden<\/st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType>State<\/st1:PlaceType><\/st1:place><br \/>\nis a high flying, up-tempo team that lives off the three-point shot. Last year<br \/>\nthey led the league in three-point attempts and their average went up after the<br \/>\nJan. 16 trade in which they acquired Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Riding the hot hand, they shot the three-pointer even more<br \/>\nin the playoffs, averaging a stunning 31 attempts per game in the post-season<br \/>\ncompared to 23.4 attempts before the aforesaid trade. This is even more<br \/>\nsignificant because defenses tighten and the pace slows in the postseason. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>This formula means they will look like a lottery team one<br \/>\nnight and a championship contender the next night. Perhaps it\u2019s the Golden<br \/>\n(State) Rule. Watch them drive 90 percent of gamblers nuts, yet be \u201cGolden\u201d<br \/>\ngoing both for and against for wiseguy gamblers, depending on the situation. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<h1><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Grizzlies Built to Improve as the Year Goes<br \/>\nOn<o:p><\/o:p><\/span><\/h1>\n<p class=MsoBodyText><st1:City><st1:place>Memphis<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> had<br \/>\nthe worst record in the NBA last year, but they have a fresh coach, new GM, and<br \/>\na plethora of new to the job players. <span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>And we do mean \u201cnew\u201d. Their coach Mark Iavaroni has his<br \/>\nfirst head coaching job. Other than Damon Stoudamire, the average player has<br \/>\nless than three years NBA experience. They will be better in January and<br \/>\nFebruary than in November. Best of all, their early season struggles will lower<br \/>\ntheir value with the offshore and Vegas sportsbooks just in time for them to<br \/>\nimprove. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Look for us to ride them as huge underdogs after their<br \/>\nfirst 15-20 games of abysmal play. We eye them as one of the top dichotomous<br \/>\nATS and SU squads.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>Again, the script and<br \/>\na successful evergreen one at that: we discount 98 percent of trends, but this<br \/>\nhas proven to be the exception to the rule. If a team has a great SU record but<br \/>\nhorrid ATS record or visa versa, we bet for that to continue as it is the sign<br \/>\nof which teams are most under or overvalued. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<h1><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Mavericks an Early Season \u201cOver\u201d Team<o:p><\/o:p><\/span><\/h1>\n<p class=MsoBodyText><st1:City><st1:place>Dallas<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> coach<br \/>\nAvery Johnson transformed the Mavericks from a shoot and let God sort them out<br \/>\nteam to a squad that thought defense first, second and third. The result was<br \/>\none of the great postseason failures in sports history. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Johnson learned that having Dirk Nowitzki thinking defense<br \/>\nforemost is the equivalent of trying to make Peyton Manning or Tom Brady a<br \/>\nthousand yard rusher. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Not only will <st1:City><st1:place>Dallas<\/st1:place><\/st1:City><br \/>\ncorrect that blunder, but the focus this offseason was improving their<br \/>\nweakness: their offense against the zone. New assistant coach Paul Westphal was<br \/>\nhired to do just that, among other things focusing on execution rather than<br \/>\ntrying to outsmart their opponent with new fangled looks. This is a wise move<br \/>\nconsidering <st1:City><st1:place>Dallas<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> has the<br \/>\noffensive weapons. Look for point guard Devin Harris to be among the most<br \/>\nimproved players in the league offensively. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<h1><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Nets Will Come Out of the Gates Quickly<o:p><\/o:p><\/span><\/h1>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>The Nets point guard and leader Jason Kidd is what a point<br \/>\nguard should be.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>He makes players better<br \/>\nand brings into play his weapons. He has a lot more to work with this year.<br \/>\nJamaal Magloire, Sean Williams and Malik Allen have been added, Josh Boone is<br \/>\nrapidly improving and Nenad Krstic is back from injury. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>The team has gelled in camp and in the preseason. Buoyed<br \/>\nby all this, we look for the Nets to look like world beaters early on. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>The author, Joe Duffy is CEO of <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:\nnormal'><span style='color:blue'><a href=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/\">OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a><br \/>\n<\/span><\/b>and a handicapper for GodsTips, exclusively on that site. Check out<br \/>\nthe full-season, weekly, monthly and other winning packages for sports bettors<br \/>\nat <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='color:blue'><a\nhref=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/\">OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a> <\/span><\/b><span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><o:p><\/o:p><\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/body><br \/>\n<\/html><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As is the case in all sports, everyone and their sister are doing NBA season previews. This is very much true even with those in the handicapping industry. From a spread bettor\u2019s standpoint, these forecasts can have little value. As we point out similar examples in every sport, San Antonio could have the best record &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/10\/early-season-nba-betting-crib-sheet\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Early Season NBA Betting Crib Sheet<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[179,180,178,181],"class_list":["post-1354","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sports_betting_news","tag-basketball-odds","tag-basketball-picks","tag-nba-betting","tag-nba-handicapping"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1354","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1354"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1354\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1354"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1354"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1354"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}