{"id":1346,"date":"2007-10-16T14:26:41","date_gmt":"2007-10-16T19:26:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/10\/gods-tid-bets-vol-26\/"},"modified":"2019-02-26T11:05:48","modified_gmt":"2019-02-26T16:05:48","slug":"gods-tid-bets-vol-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/10\/gods-tid-bets-vol-26\/","title":{"rendered":"Critical Betting and Gambling Notes, Secrets of the Pros, Handicapping Formulas"},"content":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s been awhile since we authored a volume in this series.<\/p>\n

\n

However more anticipated than a Harry Potter novel, the Tid<\/span>-Bets\u00a0return to take a look at various sports handicapping and betting issues.<\/p>\n

How Do Handicappers Work Overtime?\u00a0\"\"<\/a><\/span><\/h1>\n

CBS announcer Gary Danielson accurately observed how\u00a0college football overtimes can greatly distort statistics. From a handicapping\u00a0standpoint, this is certainly true for those who use deceptive rankings or\u00a0points per game statistics. Luckily sharp bettors do not or they are weighted\u00a0very lightly.<\/p>\n

The main statistics that we use: yards per rush, yards per\u00a0pass, and yards per play on offense and defense compared to the cumulative\u00a0average of their opponents are not debased by overtime play. The same is true for ace football handicapper Joe Duffy\u00a0who utilizes\u00a0net yard advantage\/disadvantage cumulative statistics.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve explained in previous articles why straight up wins\u00a0and losses, point margin, and offensive and defensive rankings are the most\u00a0popular choices of square players planning their own sportsbook death sentence.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf a team wins by eight points in four overtimes, it\u00a0looks the same as an eight-point win in regulation,\u201d says Mike Godsey,\u00a0referring to those who use the above fatal stats.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/youtu.be\/qa6H7tcWGeM<\/p>\n

\u201cBut if the losing team is stopped on the three-yard line\u00a0trying to tie the game, it is very much accounted for in our statistics,\u201d brags\u00a0Godsey.<\/p>\n

Godsey adds that while as a fan he despises the fact that\u00a0teams start 25 yards from pay dirt; it is built-in insurance that the more\u00a0reliable numbers don\u2019t get too distorted in overtime.<\/p>\n

Will the Pitching and Defense Clich\u00e9 Ever\u00a0Die?<\/span><\/h1>\n

In 2007, no surprise, seven of the top eight offenses\u00a0based on a team\u2019s on base percentage made the playoffs. Two of the three teamsthat finished with 70 wins or less, Pittsburgh\u00a0and Baltimore, ranked in the top\u00a0five in defense, ahead of six of the eight playoff teams. And six of the top 10\u00a0pitching teams missed the playoffs.<\/p>\n

This is on the heels of St. Louis\u00a0winning the World Series with Chris Carpenter and a cast of rejects on their\u00a0pitching staff. Their closer was a converted rookie starting pitcher. The year\u00a0before the White Sox had a good starting pitching staff and an abysmal bullpen.\u00a0In recent years, Arizona won with\u00a0Johnson and Schilling and the rest of the staff worth killing.<\/p>\n

The Toronto Blue Jays this most recent campaign had the\u00a0best pitching staff in MLB with A.J<\/span>. Burnett, Roy\u00a0Halladay, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch<\/span>.\u00a0All they did was finish 13 games out of first place.<\/p>\n

This year the Colorado Rockies enter the World Series\u00a0having won an historic 21-of-22 games. The ace of their staff is Jeff Francis,\u00a0a very solid pitcher indeed. Problem is, he\u2019d be the No. 3 starter on the\u00a0Atlanta Braves, a<\/span> team that the media said failed to\u00a0make the playoffs because of lack of pitching. But not to worry, rounding out\u00a0the Rockies pitching staff is Ubadlo\u00a0<\/span>Jimenez and Franklin Morales. Combined,\u00a0they have seven career wins under their belt. Yes, combined they have seven\u00a0more wins at the Major League level than I do.<\/p>\n

Pitching and defense wins in the media, but the teams with\u00a0the best clutch hitting are the squads that professional gamblers laugh with
\nall the way to the bank.<\/p>\n

ESPN Fantasy Football Simulations a Tool for\u00a0Proposition Bettors<\/span><\/h1>\n

Over the last several years, online gamblers have been\u00a0able to bet on the production of individual players in their respective sports.\u00a0An elite gambler in fantasy football betting is Mike Snow of BettorsAdvice.com.<\/p>\n

He says there is no better starting point than the ESPN\u00a0fantasy football projections. \u201cWe of course make adjustments for injuries, but\u00a0contrasting the player proposition odds to the ESPN simulations has proven to\u00a0be great foundation in fantasy NFL betting.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lower betting limits make it more challenging for sharp\u00a0players to clean house on the sportsbooks, but Snow says some of the highest\u00a0return on investments have been in betting NFL player propositions.<\/p>\n

Joe Duffy\u2019s sports betting selections are the best in the industry!\u00a0He is former General Manager of the\u00a0Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a>,\u00a0<\/span><\/b>the premier hub of world-class handicappers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Free pick and critical intel sponsored by\u00a0Bovada<\/a>\u00a0sportsbook. Among the advantages<\/p>\n