{"id":1284,"date":"2007-08-12T15:30:20","date_gmt":"2007-08-12T20:30:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/08\/preseason-publications-help-isolate-overvalued-and-undervalued-teams\/"},"modified":"2007-08-12T15:30:20","modified_gmt":"2007-08-12T20:30:20","slug":"preseason-publications-help-isolate-overvalued-and-undervalued-teams","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/08\/preseason-publications-help-isolate-overvalued-and-undervalued-teams\/","title":{"rendered":"Preseason Publications Help Isolate Overvalued and Undervalued Teams"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='tab-interval:.5in'><\/p>\n<div class=Section1>\n<h1><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Joe Duffy (<a\nhref=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/\">www.OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a>) <o:p><\/o:p><\/span><\/h1>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Many a professional handicapper is publishing his<br \/>\npreseason college football predictions. Unfortunately, these prognostications<br \/>\ncan have limited value to the pointspread bettor, even if the conjecture turns<br \/>\nout to be spot on. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>For example, all of the touts I\u2019ve seen have forecasted<br \/>\nUSC to win the Pac-10 and Stanford to finish dead last.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>It is quite conceivable for these<br \/>\nprognostications to be flawless, yet the Cardinal could still finish with a<br \/>\nbetter record against the spread than the Trojans. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>We take conference foreboding an imperative step further.<br \/>\nBorrowing the research done at Stassen.com, over the years we have compared and<br \/>\ncontrasted the consensus predictions of the respected preseason college<br \/>\nfootball publications to the offshore odds. <span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'> <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>While this has proven enormously valuable for placing<br \/>\nfutures bets, it is even more advantageous in compiling a \u201ccheat sheet\u201d of<br \/>\novervalued and undervalued teams entering the season. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>First of all, let\u2019s set the simple criterion. Stassen<br \/>\ntakes 12 preseason publications and uses a basic point system to compile a<br \/>\nconsensus.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>If a periodical predicts a<br \/>\nteam to win their conference, they are assigned one point.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>Two points are given for a second place<br \/>\nprediction, three for third and so on. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Of course the consensus is formed by ranking teams by lowest<br \/>\npoint total to highest. Better yet, the specific point compilation helps us<br \/>\n\u201crate\u201d teams (see previous articles about the difference between rating and<br \/>\nranking). We compare the Stassen research to the odds to win a conference or<br \/>\ndivision as posted by BetUs Sportsbook. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Major dichotomies are noted and teams are graded as<br \/>\novervalued, extremely overvalued, undervalued, extremely undervalued, or at<br \/>\nvalue. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>For example, the Miami Hurricanes are modest -115<br \/>\nfavorites to win the ACC Coastal even though Virginia Tech at even money is the<br \/>\nunanimous choice to win according to the preseason magazines. Yet, GA Tech is<br \/>\nat +775 even though they are dead-even with <st1:City><st1:place>Miami<\/st1:place><\/st1:City><br \/>\naccording to the 12 modules.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>We flag<br \/>\nVirginia Tech as \u201cat value\u201d, <st1:City><st1:place>Miami<\/st1:place><\/st1:City><br \/>\nas \u201covervalued\u201d and GA Tech as \u201cextremely undervalued\u201d. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>By no means do we gaze at just the top or for that matter<br \/>\nthe bottom of the standings for an edge.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'><br \/>\n<\/span>For example <st1:State><st1:place>Illinois<\/st1:place><\/st1:State> is<br \/>\nthe second long shot in the Big 10 at +3500. However, they are a comfortable<br \/>\nseventh (remember there are 11 teams in the Big 10) in the compilation.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>We grade the Illini as \u201cundervalued\u201d. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Remember that the offshore odds take public perception<br \/>\ninto account.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>No publication is perfect,<br \/>\nbut we have found the rated assemblage of the numerous sources to be more<br \/>\naccurate in distinguishing the talent levels of the teams.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Even the most accurate conference predictions can be<br \/>\nflawed to the gambler because betting odds are the great equalizer. Our system<br \/>\nof contrasting the data with the betting odds gives sharp players the premier<br \/>\npreseason sports betting cheat sheet.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Joe Duffy is CEO of <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span\nstyle='color:blue'><a href=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/\">OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a>,<br \/>\n<\/span><\/b>home of free picks, live scores and odds, sports betting databases<br \/>\nand the famed <a href=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/index.php?PageID=79\">Tailgate<br \/>\nParty<\/a>, news and notes of interest to the online bettor compiled from<br \/>\nhometown newspapers. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/body><br \/>\n<\/html><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com) Many a professional handicapper is publishing his preseason college football predictions. Unfortunately, these prognostications can have limited value to the pointspread bettor, even if the conjecture turns out to be spot on. For example, all of the touts I\u2019ve seen have forecasted USC to win the Pac-10 and Stanford to finish dead &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/08\/preseason-publications-help-isolate-overvalued-and-undervalued-teams\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Preseason Publications Help Isolate Overvalued and Undervalued Teams<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[45,46,47,48],"class_list":["post-1284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sports_gambling_strategy_articles","tag-betting","tag-college-football-handicapping","tag-gambling","tag-sports-handicapping"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1284"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1284\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}